风险评估在中国大陆口岸输入性传染病防控中的应用及展望

随着全球一体化进程,国际间人员、贸易往来日趋频繁,传染病跨境传播风险显著增加。口岸是防控传染病疫情输入的第一道防线,当前,评估传染病输入风险已成为卫生检疫工作中的重要任务和关键环节,为境外重大新发突发传染病和大型国际活动口岸公共卫生风险防控提供了依据,并取得了显著效果。同时,统计模型和概率模型、大数据技术、人工智能、地理信息系统等方法和技术被逐步应用到传染病风险评估工作中。面对严峻复杂的传染病疫情形势,将新技术、多源数据与风险评估工作相结合,可在口岸传染病疫情防控工作中发挥重要作用。     

Vascular diseases and oral infections

Abstract. Vascular diseases are multifactorial, and several risk factors, such as increasing age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemias and smoking, are well-known. In recent studies, associations have also been found between preceding infections and development of myocardial or cerebral infarction. Preceding acute respiratory infections are reported to be more common in patients with myocardial or cerebral infarction. Cerebral infarction may follow infective endocarditis, bacterial meningitis or any other bacteremic infection. Oral infections are common chronic bacterial infections. Although oral infections are local, they may lead to systemic infectious complications via stransient bacteremias, and there may also be other systemic effects, for instance, via immunologic or toxic mechanisms. Association between oral infections and vascular diseases has been studied in 2 Finnish case-control studies concerning myocardial and cerebral infarction. In these case-control studies, it was found that oral infections were more common in patients with myocardial or cerebral infarction than in their age- and sex-matched community controls. There are many factors, such as diabetes, smoking and alcohol abuse, which may predispose to both development of infarction and oral infections. Therefore, the observed association between oral infections and vascular diseases may result from these common predisposing factors, and causality between them cannot be inferred. There are, however, several possible links between oral infections and infarction. Although causality between oral infections and infarction cannot be proven, patients who have poor oral health need health education, paying attention to those common risk factors of oral infections and vascular diseases. Furthermore, their oral infections should be treated, because they may predispose to infectious complications, which may lead to infarction.     

Understanding the neurobiology, assessment, and treatment of substances of abuse and dependence: a guide for the critical care nurse

What do I as a critical care nurse do? Nurses, by virtue of being trained in health promotion, and also because they interact with patients, families, and communities, have firsthand opportunities to play an active role in practicing primary prevention. To avoid the first occurrence of substance abuse, assess community need, assess facility needs, and identify potential risk. Identify the magnitude of the problem. Intervene early with the youth and at-risk populations. Refer patients and their families to mental health specialists. Provide education to patients, families, communities. To reduce occurrences of substance abuse, practicing secondary prevention requires prompt action in the earliest moments of recognizing a problem and directing patients to early intervention and rehabilitation. Screening your patients, providing brief education, and prompt referral constitutes early intervention. To retard the progress of the disease, practice tertiary prevention by providing education, counseling, and support to the afflicted in achieving and maintaining sobriety through medication compliance and rehabilitative group and counseling work. The goal of intervention in the lives of substance abusers is to stop drug use, avoid relapse, and sustain recovery. After years of research, NIDA has identified 13 fundamental principles to effective drug abuse treatment. 1. Addiction is a complex but treatable disease that affects brain function and behavior. 2. No single treatment is appropriate for everyone. 3. Treatment needs to be readily available. 4. Effective treatment attends to multiple needs of the individual, not just his or her drug abuse. 5. Remaining in treatment for an adequate period of time is critical. 6. Counseling--individual and/or group--and other behavioral therapies are the most commonly used forms of drug abuse treatment. 7. Medications are an important element of treatment for many patients, especially when combined with counseling and other behavioral therapies. 8. An individual's treatment and services plan must be assessed continually and modified as necessary to ensure it meets his or her changing needs. 9. Many drug-addicted individuals also have other mental disorders that need treatment. 10. Medically assisted detoxification in the first stage of addiction treatment and by itself does little to change long-term drug abuse. 11. Treatment does not need to be voluntary to be effective. 12. Drug use during treatment must be monitored continuously, because lapses during treatment do occur. 13. Treatment programs should assess patients for the presence of HIV/AIDS, hepatitis B and C, tuberculosis, and other infectious diseases, as well as provide targeted risk-reduction counseling to help patients modify or change behaviors that place them at risk of contracting or spreading infectious diseases. To truly impact this disease, there needs to be improvement in the identification of risk factors and early identification and early intervention with children and adolescents. The future of neuroscience is in objective brain scans and genetic testing. Out of these approaches can come more objective measures of addiction and dependence using brain scans and genetic testing. These measures would potentially allow for the development of vaccines for specific drugs of abuse and dependence, as well as increasingly selective and effective pharmacologic approaches for treatment and a new consensus on standard of care for substance dependence.     

2017年4月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2017年4月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省（直辖市、自治区）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点,预计4月全国报告事件数和病例数仍将维持在较高水平,事件类别主要以发生在学校的手足口病、水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病等传染病事件为主。4月人感染H7N9禽流感发病强度预计进一步降低,但仍可能高于往年同期,且不排除出现H7N9禽流感聚集性病例以及人感染其他亚型动物流感病毒病例的可能。流行性感冒、水痘、流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道传染病仍将处于较高水平。全国手足口病流行强度将逐渐增加。诺如病毒感染暴发疫情仍将持续发生,学校为主要发生场所。近期我国仍有可能出现寨卡病毒病、黄热病、登革热等蚊媒传播传染病的输入性病例,南方重点省份存在输入后发生本地传播或小规模聚集性病例的可能,但出现较大规模暴发疫情的可能性低。结论 2017年4月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将维持在较高水平;需关注人感染禽流感、流行性感冒、手足口病、诺如病毒感染、寨卡病毒病、黄热病、登革热等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。     

2014年7月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的评估2014年7月我国(不包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,以视频会议形式邀请全国各省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计7月全国突发公共卫生事件会较6月有所下降。报告事件将以手足口病、水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、布鲁氏菌病、登革热等传染病为主,其次为食物中毒事件;近期,多地发生登革热输入病例,广东部分地区出现了本地感染病例,预计未来3~4个月将迎来登革热发病高峰;近期毒蘑菇引起的食物中毒事件明显增加,暑期因集体聚餐引发的食物中毒也将有所增加,同时应加强霍乱、伤寒等肠道传染病的防控工作;人感染H7N9禽流感仍将维持在较低水平;中东呼吸综合征存在输入病例的风险,但发生大规模疫情的可能性较低;西非埃博拉病毒病疫情近期有所上升,但传入我国的风险仍为低,输入病例导致该病在我国本土化和大范围播散的可能性极低。结论 2014年7月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,事件数将下降;需重点关注我国霍乱、登革热及基孔肯雅热、食物中毒,同时关注中东呼吸综合征及西非埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的风险。     

急性呼吸道传染病患者的防控及护理

目的 探讨急性呼吸道传染病的特点以及防治控制和护理工作的要点.方法 抽取本院2007年1月至2011年2月所收治的急性呼吸道传染病患者1067例,对其临床防护、治疗以及护理工作进行了临床监测以及回溯式综合调查分析.结果 所有1067例患者在以确诊或疑似呼吸道传染病病例入院治疗以后,均及时得以治疗护理并顺利出院,未成为传染源.住院期间有79例患者发生了院内感染,感染率为7.4％.结论 医院应秉承预防为主的原则,遵从早发现、早隔离、早诊断、早治疗等医疗防控原则,将急性呼吸道传染病控制于萌芽状态.在对急性呼吸道传染病患者的治疗过程中,应遵照严格的隔离制度,主动的给予健康宣教、临床病情监测、稳定期护理等,以促进患者早日康复.     

现代传染病专科医院发展的思考

传染病专科医院定点收治传染病在我国重大传染病防治中发挥着重要作用。但是,长期形成的传染病隔离治疗体系,其在隔离传染源的同时,也在患者和社会之间形成了一定的心理隔阂。同时,在传染病专科医院与综合医院之间也形成了一定程度的理念、信息、资源上的不对称。这对传染病患者融入社会以及传染病的及时发现和有效防治产生了一定的不利影响。因此,有必要通过改变观念、医疗资源整合和内涵建设促进传染病专科医院发展,为传染病患者提供更为高效、优质的医疗服务。     

2002-2006年山西省吕梁市离石区公共场所从业人员预防性健康体检资料分析

目的　了解山西省吕梁市离石区2002-2006年公共场所从业人员传染病的发病现状及趋势，加强对从业人员的卫生监督管理，为防止传染病的暴发与流行提供科学依据。方法　对离石区疾病预防控制中心体检中心2002-2006年公共场所从业人员预防性健康体检结果进行统计分析。结果　5年间共检出6种传染病666例， 检出率为1.54%。以传染期乙型肝炎检出率最高，为0.83%，检出人数占总检出人数的54.０５%；其次为其他型肝炎占17.1２%，肺结核占9.0０%。结论　除肺结核检出率呈逐年上升趋势外，其他传染病的检出率处于波动状态。卫生监督部门应加强对公共场所从业人员的卫生监督，增加监督频次，严把两证（健康合格证、卫生许可证）发放关，加大监督执法力度。相关部门应加强预防接种和卫生知识科普宣传，增强自我防病意识，将传染病控制在一定水平。     

2013年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2013年10月中国(未包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。 方法 根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法进行评估。 结果 既往监测显示,10月仍是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较高的月份之一,全国总报告事件数和病例数将与9月相当;登革热继续面临境外输入和本地暴发扩散的双重压力,南方重点省份疫情发生风险较高,存在局部暴发的可能;人感染高致病性H5N1禽流感、人感染H7N9禽流感存在发生病例的可能;季节性流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高;细菌性痢疾、病毒性腹泻等肠道传染病的发生风险仍较高;手足口病疫情仍处于秋季次高峰流行期;中东呼吸综合征疫情目前尚未构成国际关注的突发公共卫生事件,但10月麦加朝觐期间,我国前往沙特的公民数量增多,中东呼吸综合征传入我国的风险增加;我国北方地区将逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加;此外,国庆节长假期间,各地卫生部门应加强节日期间的卫生监管和应急值守工作。 结论 2013年10月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较高水平;需重点关注登革热、人感染高致病性H5N1禽流感、人感染H7N9禽流感和中东呼吸综合征。     

2020年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

目的评估2020年1月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计2020年1月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较2019年12月下降,事件数可能低于前3年水平,报告事件以流行性感冒（流感）、水痘、诺如病毒病、非职业性一氧化碳中毒为主。 需要密切关注湖北省武汉市2019新型冠状病毒疫情的病因、临床和流行特征调查进展,动态评估其可能造成的公共卫生风险。 流感将于1月底达到流行高峰,诺如病毒引发的感染性腹泻病疫情将维持较高水平,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件仍将保持较高水平。 春节期间我国公民在境内需重点预防季节性流感、人感染禽流感、诺如病毒感染性腹泻等传染病,以及食物中毒和非职业性一氧化碳中毒;出境旅游需预防埃博拉病毒病、霍乱、登革热、黄热病、寨卡病毒病、中东呼吸综合征等,同时注意饮食卫生。结论需要对武汉市2019新型冠状病毒疫情、季节性流感予以重点关注,对诺如病毒感染性腹泻、非职业性一氧化碳中毒和春节假期旅行卫生予以一般关注。     

2018年11月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

目的 评估2018年11月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 总体上,预计11月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将比10月有所上升,可能以水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病及手足口病等事件为主。 人感染禽流感可能会出现散发病例。流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病也将出现季节性升高。 近期刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情形势仍然严峻。 11月非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将进入高发时期。 结论 需要重点关注人感染禽流感、非职业性一氧化碳中毒,对于流行性感冒、诺如病毒感染性腹泻及刚果埃博拉病毒病疫情予以一般关注。      

发热门诊患者传染病相关知识调查研究

目的了解发热门诊患者对传染病相关知识掌握情况,探讨对发热患者进行针对性健康教育的方法。方法采用问卷方式对2004年11月-2005年1月在发热门诊就诊的495例患者就传染病防治法、常见传染病预防知识、合理卫生习惯、防病治病常识等方面内容进行调查分析。结果患者对传染病法和传染病预防知识答对率最低;初中、高中学历、50岁以上的受调查者答题正确率较低,工人及一般城市居民答对率最低;电视广播是患者认可的传染病知识宣传方式。结论应加强传染病法和传染病预防知识的宣传;重视对低学历、中老年人以及工人、城市居民群体的宣传教育;电视广播是目前健康教育的主要途径。     

Meningococcal Vaccination in Men Who Have Sex with Men

Recent outbreaks of meningitis in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Los Angeles, Chicago, New York City, and other locations across the United States have heightened public health concerns regarding the increasing incidence of meningococcal infections in this vulnerable population. MSM have unique risk factors that result in greater threat from certain infectious diseases, including meningococcal infection. Men who have sex with men who are infected with HIV are at even higher risk. This article explores the increased risks among MSM in contracting and communicating meningococcal infection, use of vaccination as primary prevention, and outreach strategies that may help address this issue and lessen the disease burden associated with meningococcal infection in these sexual minorities.     

2016年8月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2016年8月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省（直辖市、自治区）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据既往传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,预计8月报告的突发公共卫生事件为全年较低水平。近期我国的寨卡病毒病、黄热病等蚊媒传染病输入可能性较年初有所下降,但蚊媒条件更加适宜,发生本地传播的风险逐渐升高;而登革热已开始在南方部分省份发生本地传播,进一步流行的风险加大。感染性腹泻病的流行强度会逐渐增强,容易出现暴发疫情。有毒野生菌、集体聚餐（如升学宴、农村喜丧宴）等导致的食物中毒风险较高。高温中暑事件将会持续高发。另外,8月份全国降水仍然较多,需要关注极端气象条件导致的洪涝灾害相关公共卫生风险。结论 2016年8月我国的突发公共卫生事件可能达到全年的最低水平,但仍需重点关注伊蚊媒介传染病（如寨卡病毒病、登革热、黄热病）、洪涝灾害,一般关注感染性腹泻病、食物中毒和高温中暑所引发的公共卫生风险。     

2020年9月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

目的评估2020年9月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果总体上,随着学校开学,预计9月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较8月略有上升。 目前,全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情仍呈高流行态势,我国境内全部恢复低风险水平,发生境外输入病例及其续发风险持续存在,但在可控范围内。 鼠疫不排除出现散发病例以及远距离传播疫情和境外输入疫情的可能。 诺如病毒感染性腹泻可能在学校和托幼机构出现暴发疫情。 食物中毒仍处于高发期。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的风险低。结论需要对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注,对鼠疫、诺如病毒感染性腹泻、食物中毒和刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。     

Emerging infectious diseases: vulnerabilities,contributing factors and approaches

We live in an ever more connected global village linked through international travel, politics, economics, culture and human–human and human–animal interactions. The realization that the concept of globalization includes global exposure to disease-causing agents that were formerly confined to small, remote areas and that infectious disease outbreaks can have political, economic and social roots and effects is becoming more apparent. Novel infectious disease microbes continue to be discovered because they are new or newly recognized, have expanded their geographic range, have been shown to cause a new disease spectrum, have jumped the species barrier from animals to humans, have become resistant to antimicrobial agents, have increased in incidence or have become more virulent. These emerging infectious disease microbes may have the potential for use as agents of bioterrorism. Factors involved in the emergence of infectious diseases are complex and interrelated and involve all classifications of organisms transmitted in a variety of ways. In 2003, outbreaks of interest included severe acute respiratory syndrome, monkeypox and avian influenza. Information from the human genome project applied to microbial organisms and their hosts will provide new opportunities for detection, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, control and prognosis. New technology related not only to genetics but also to satellite and monitoring systems will play a role in weather, climate and the approach to environmental manipulations that influence factors contributing to infectious disease emergence and control. Approaches to combating emerging infectious diseases include many disciplines, such as animal studies, epidemiology, immunology, ecology, environmental studies, microbiology, pharmacology, other sciences, health, medicine, public health, nursing, cultural, political and social studies, all of which must work together. Appropriate financial support of the public health infrastructure including surveillance, prevention, communication, adherence techniques and the like will be needed to support efforts to address emerging infectious disease threats.     

2013年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2013年9月中国(未包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。 方法 根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法进行评估。 结果 既往监测显示,9月是全年报告突发公共卫生事件数较高的月份之一,全国突发公共卫生事件总报告事件数和病例数较8月将有所增加;仍处于肠道传染病及食物中毒事件的多发季节;面临登革热输入和本地暴发的双重压力;人感染H7N9禽流感存在出现新病例的可能;中东呼吸综合征疫情虽然不足以构成国际关注的突发公共卫生事件,但中东地区新发病例的持续发生仍需要继续关注;随着近期各类学校和幼托机构陆续开学,学校和幼托机构中流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、水痘等传染病暴发疫情和食物中毒事件的发生风险将上升;中秋、国庆长假临近,各地卫生部门应提前做好旅行卫生提示,并加强节日期间的传染病监测、卫生监管和应急值守工作;此外,还应关注洪涝等自然灾害可能导致的次生公共卫生风险。 结论 2013年9月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较高水平;需重点关注中东呼吸综合征、登革热和食物中毒。     

Emerging infectious diseases: vulnerabilities, contributing factors and approaches

We live in an ever more connected global village linked through international travel, politics, economics, culture and human-human and human-animal interactions. The realization that the concept of globalization includes global exposure to disease-causing agents that were formerly confined to small, remote areas and that infectious disease outbreaks can have political, economic and social roots and effects is becoming more apparent. Novel infectious disease microbes continue to be discovered because they are new or newly recognized, have expanded their geographic range, have been shown to cause a new disease spectrum, have jumped the species barrier from animals to humans, have become resistant to antimicrobial agents, have increased in incidence or have become more virulent. These emerging infectious disease microbes may have the potential for use as agents of bioterrorism. Factors involved in the emergence of infectious diseases are complex and interrelated and involve all classifications of organisms transmitted in a variety of ways. In 2003, outbreaks of interest included severe acute respiratory syndrome, monkeypox and avian influenza. Information from the human genome project applied to microbial organisms and their hosts will provide new opportunities for detection, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, control and prognosis. New technology related not only to genetics but also to satellite and monitoring systems will play a role in weather, climate and the approach to environmental manipulations that influence factors contributing to infectious disease emergence and control. Approaches to combating emerging infectious diseases include many disciplines, such as animal studies, epidemiology, immunology, ecology, environmental studies, microbiology, pharmacology, other sciences, health, medicine, public health, nursing, cultural, political and social studies, all of which must work together. Appropriate financial support of the public health infrastructure including surveillance, prevention, communication, adherence techniques and the like will be needed to support efforts to address emerging infectious disease threats.     

2018年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

目的 评估2018年7月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 根据既往监测数据，预计2018年7月全国报告事件数和病例数将继续下降，主要是因为学校放假和季节变化因素导致的水痘、流行性腮腺炎等常见传染病事件下降所致，而食物中毒和高温中暑事件将有所上升。 根据既往5年事件发生规律，7月传染病事件可能以手足口病、登革热、感染性腹泻病、布鲁氏菌病等病种为多见。 登革热输入风险将持续上升，有埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊分布地区的本地传播风险也加大，尤其是南方省份的中心城市、口岸地区。 据气象部门预测，7月长江上游、黄河中游、海河流域等地降水增多，可能有2 ~ 3个台风登陆我国，需关注可能发生洪涝灾害地区的灾后防病工作。 国际上，肯尼亚裂谷热、刚果民主共和国裂谷热和巴西麻疹输入我国风险低。 结论 预计2018年7月我国大陆发生的突发公共卫生事件数将处于正常的季节性下降。境内需重点关注登革热、食物中毒和高温中暑事件，一般关注洪涝灾害；无特别需要关注的境外突发公共卫生事件。      

2015年7月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的评估2015年7月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计7月全国总报告事件数和病例数较6月将有所减少。中东呼吸综合征及埃博拉出血热输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性极低。随着盛夏季节来临,登革热等虫媒传染病及霍乱、伤寒副伤寒等肠道传染病的流行强度会逐渐增强,部分省份可能出现本地暴发疫情。此外,高温中暑事件将有所增加,夏季饮食特征也将带来食物中毒/毒蕈中毒增多现象。结论预计2015年7月全国总报告事件数和病例数较6月将有所减少;需重点关注登革热、伤寒副伤寒、霍乱、埃博拉出血热、中东呼吸综合征、高温中暑和食物中毒对我国的影响。