气候变化对我国微小扇头蜱分布区的影响

目的 分析影响我国微小扇头蜱地理分布的环境因子及微小扇头蜱在我国的潜在适生区,分析气候变化对我国微小扇头蜱分布的影响.方法 检索我国微小扇头蜱地理分布相关的国内外公开发表文献,提取地理位置信息.结合环境因子,应用ArcGIS 10.7软件和最大熵模型,对微小扇头蜱在我国的适生区分布和影响其分布的主导环境因子进行预测.结...     

我国全沟硬蜱适生区预测

目的 分析不同环境因子对我国全沟硬蜱分布的影响,预测我国全沟硬蜱未来适生区.方法 通过查阅国内外公开发表文献,提取我国已知全沟硬蜱分布点信息.采用刀切法评价年均温、月均温范围、等温性、年均温变化范围、最暖季度平均温度、最冷季度平均温度、年平均降水量、降水的季节性、最暖季度降水量、最冷季度降水量、海拔、坡度、坡向和植被等...     

基于最大熵模型的新疆银盾革蜱和边缘革蜱生境适应性评价

目的 对银盾革蜱和边缘革蜱的生境适应性进行评价,为银盾革蜱、边缘革蜱及其传播疾病的防控提供参考。方法 从中国蜱的分布和多样性数据集中收集1980—2017年新疆维吾尔自治区（简称新疆）银盾革蜱和边缘革蜱的分布点,通过中国知网、百度学术、 PubMed等数据库收集2017—2021年的分布点;在世界气象数据库中收集环境因子变量。以75%的数据作为训练子集,其余的25%作为模型评估测试集建立最大熵（MaxEnt）模型,通过MaxEnt模型的刀切法试验和R软件筛选主要的环境变量因子;利用MaxEnt物种预测分布模型和ArcGIS空间分析方法预测银盾革蜱和边缘革蜱的孳生环境分布情况;通过ArcMap 10.1绘制模型输出结果,根据MaxEnt模型绘制的生物气候变量响应曲线预测两种蜱的生态环境特性。结果 分别筛选出银盾革蜱、边缘革蜱分布点数据46、 64个;银盾革蜱、边缘革蜱模型评估测试集的受试者工作特性曲线下面积（AUC）值分别为0.847、 0.815;从19个环境变量因子中筛选出8个对银盾革蜱和边缘革蜱生存有影响的环境因子。适生区预测结果显示,银盾革蜱在新疆的适生区主要为准噶尔盆地、吐鲁番...     

不同气候模式下我国长角血蜱潜在适生区预测

［摘要］　目的　分析环境和气候因子对我国长角血蜱适生区分布的影响,并预测不同气候模式下长角血蜱的潜在分布区。方法　从文献中获取我国长角血蜱分布点信息,结合环境和气候因子数据,运用MaxEnt最大熵模型,分析年均温、昼夜温差日均值、等温性、温度季节性变化标准差、最暖月最高温、最冷月最低温、年均温变化范围、最湿季度平均温度、最干季度平均温度、最暖季度平均温度、最冷季度平均温度、年均降水量、最湿月降水量、最干月降水量、降水量变异系数、最湿季度降水量、最干季度降水量、最暖季度降水量、最冷季度降水量等19个气候因子及海拔、坡度、坡向、植被覆盖率等4个环境因子对长角血蜱潜在分布的影响,并预测当前和未来不同气候模式下（RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5）长角血蜱潜在地理分布区。结果　在影响我国长角血蜱地理分布的环境和气候因子中,贡献率均超过10%的因子主要包括最干月降水量（26.0%）、年均温（11.2%）、年均降水量（10.0%）和海拔（24.2%）。当前气候模式下,我国长角血蜱高、中、低适生区面积分别为123.19万、169.62万、185.44万km2。在RCP 2.6气候模式下,2050和2070年我国长角血蜱分布区面积分别增加33.61万km2和36.73万km2;在RCP 8.5气候模式下,2050年和2070年我国长角血蜱分布区面积分别增加38.10万km2 和35.80万km2。结论　降水、温度和海拔等气候和环境因子对我国长角血蜱分布区影响较大;在未来不同气候模式下,我国长角血蜱适生区面积均可能增加。     

长三角城市群蜱媒分布及适生区分析

目的　了解目前长三角城市群蜱媒分布,并对2070年该地区蜱媒适生区进行预测,为该地区蜱媒控制和蜱传疾病防治提供科学依据。方法　检索国内外公开发表的有关长三角城市群蜱媒及病原体分布的文献,提取蜱媒分布地理位置信息,采用刀切法分析最湿季平均温度、最冷季降水量、最干季平均温度、最热月最高温度、最干月降水量、最冷月最低温度、年降水量、平均日间温度范围、降水量季节变化、温度年度范围、温度季节性、年均温度、最暖季平均温度、最湿季降水量、等温性、最冷季平均温度、最湿月降水量、最干季降水量和最暖季降水量等19种气候因子对蜱媒分布的影响。采用最大熵模型分析2020年该地区蜱媒分布,并结合气候因子对2070年蜱媒适生区变化进行预测。结果　共检索中英文文献380篇,累计提取蜱媒分布点148个,并筛选出135个分布点进行研究。长三角城市群存在包括血蜱、扇头蜱、硬蜱、革蜱、牛蜱、璃眼蜱、花蜱在内的7属27种蜱。影响长三角城市群蜱媒分布的气候因子主要为最湿季平均温度和最冷季降水量,其贡献率分别为26.1%和23.6%。2020年,长三角城市群蜱媒高、中、低适生区面积分别为20 337.08、40 017.38、74 931.43 km2。受气候变化影响,2070年蜱媒适生区呈向南部扩大趋势,适生区总面积将增加1.81万km2,高、中、低适生区面积分别扩大至24 317.84、45 283.02、83 766.38 km2。结论　长三角城市群蜱媒种类繁多、分布广泛,未来气候变化可能导致该地区蜱媒分布区域扩大。     

安徽淮南发现卵形硬蜱

目的了解卵形硬蜱的形态特征,为今后开展卵形硬蜱相关研究提供依据。方法随机选取一群山羊(约20只),对其逐个检查,并采集虫体。结果于山羊体表发现一只硬蜱,经鉴定为卵形硬蜱。结论安徽淮南发现卵形硬蜱,证实了安徽淮南是该硬蜱新的孳生地,有助于开展蜱媒病的流行病学研究。     

七种媒介硬蜱基因组随机扩增多态性DNA分析

目的　研究7种硬蜱的基因组随机扩增多态性DNA(RAPD)以及种间的遗传距离。　方法　用5条不同的多聚核苷酸单链引物对草原革蜱、森林革蜱、青海血蜱、台湾血蜱、刻点血蜱、龟形花蜱、卵形硬蜱7种硬蜱基因组DNA进行随机扩增,分析DNA图谱并计算 7种硬蜱间的遗传距离。　结果　 7种硬蜱基因组随机扩增产物均有各自独特的DNA条带,种间的平均遗传距离为071。　结论　RAPD技术可以区分这7种硬蜱。     

我国部分地区蜱传斑点热分子流行病学调查研究

目的 进一步了解我国斑点热群立克次体存在的多样性,发现可能存在的斑点热群立克次体新成员、潜在媒介和动物宿主。方法 建立了扩增斑点热群立克次体190kDa rOmpA基因片段的PCR检测、鉴定方法,并用此方法检测了采用福建省和内蒙古自治区的蜱、动物和人血液标本。对扩增于越原血蜱、森林革蜱和FNH97未鉴定菌株的PCR产物采用PHYLIP软件包进行了序列分析。同时,为了寻找特异的斑点热群立克次体分类检测方法,建立了针对四种斑点热群立克次体的半巢式PCR方法,并对斑点热立克次体阳性标本进行了分类检测。结果 采用190kDa rOmpA.701/70p引物可以从7株斑点热群立克次体中的6株扩增出外膜蛋白A基因片段（小蛛立克次体除外）。并从采自福建省和内蒙古自治区的多种蜱及野生动物、人血液标本中扩增出了斑点热立克次体DNA片段,其中越原血蜱、卵形硬蜱、中华硬蜱、豪猪血蜱、森林革蜱、野鼠血块和人群血块的阳性率分别为15．69％、56．94％、8．70％、7．70％、43．56％、82．51％和0．98％。对来自越原血蜱和森林革蜱以及FNH97菌株的斑点热立克次体190kDa外膜蛋白A630bp左右核苷酸片段序列分析和推测的氨基酸序列分析结果表明：福建越原血蜱立克次体（福建立克次体）核苷酸序列与日本立克次体的该序列同源性最高（94％）。推测氨基酸序列同源性也与该立克次体最高（94％）。推测氨基酸序列同源性也与该立克次体最高（89％）;内蒙古森林革蜱立克次体（森林革蜱立克次体）核苷酸序列与扇头蜱立克次的该序列同源性最高（97％）,测氨基酸序列的同源性也最高（95％）。遗传发育分析,这两种立克次体分别与日本立克次体和扇头蜱立克次体均为同一个分支。序列中限制性核酸内切酶的位点也显示了对应的相似性。但是它们的核苷酸和推测的氨基酸序列与康氏立克次体和西伯利亚立克次体以及内蒙古立克次体（HA－91）差别较大。提示,这两种蜱携带的立克次体可能是我国尚未发现的斑点热群立克次体新成员。用初步分类引物对蜱标本、血液标本检测结果显示,以“福建立克次体”序列设计的引物检测越原血蜱阳性率为8．49％,卵形硬蜱阳性率为20．83％,中华硬蜱阳性率为4．35％,豪猪血蜱为阴性;以西伯利亚立克次体序列设计的引物检测卵形硬蜱阳性率24．39％,越原血蜱阳性率为5．56％,中华硬蜱和豪猪血蜱均为阴性。以内蒙革蜱立克次体序列设计的引物扩增森林革蜱阳性率为43．56%。结论 通过本次研究,在以下方面获得了新的认识：越原血蜱、卵形硬蜱、豪猪血蜱和中华硬蜱是福建南方蜱传斑点热立克次体的媒介或潜在媒介,其中卵形硬蜱、豪猪血蜱和中华硬蜱为我国首次证实的携带斑点热立克次体;福建的越原血蜱和内蒙古的森林革蜱分别携带一种未知斑点热群立克次体,并分别与日本立克次体和扇头蜱立克次体近缘;取自斑点热立克次体rOmpA基因的引物用于PCR,作为一种快速简便手段可直接用于斑点热立克次体初步分类和分子流行病学调查;我国可能存在斑点热群立克次体的多个成员及其自然疫源地。     

用随机扩增多态DNA技术区分7种硬蜱

目的 分析7种硬蜱基因组DNA的随机扩增多态性，探讨随机扩增多态性DNA(RAPD)技术在硬蜱分类中的应用。方法 提取草原革蜱、森林革蜱、青海血蜱、台湾血蜱、刻点血蜱、龟形花蜱、卵形硬蜱DNA。选取3条不同的随机排列碱基顺序的多聚核苷酸单链为引物(P5、P6、P7)进行RAPD-PCR扩增反应。将扩增产物制备成DNA图谱，对这7种硬蜱的DNA多态性进行分析。结果 7种硬蜱分别扩增出不同数量与不同分子质量的DNA片段。有些硬蜱基因组DNA扩增产物中具有相同的DNA条带，这反映出它们的基因组DNA具有同源性；同时又具有各自独特的DNA条带，且DNA条带的亮度也有差异。结论 RAPD技术可以准确地区分这7种蜱。     

用随机扩增多态DNA技术区分7种硬蜱

目的　分析 7种硬蜱基因组DNA的随机扩增多态性 ,探讨随机扩增多态性DNA(RAPD)技术在硬蜱分类中的应用。　方法　提取草原革蜱、森林革蜱、青海血蜱、台湾血蜱、刻点血蜱、龟形花蜱、卵形硬蜱DNA。选取 3条不同的随机排列碱基顺序的多聚核苷酸单链为引物 (P5、P6、P7)进行RAPD PCR扩增反应。将扩增产物制备成DNA图谱 ,对这 7种硬蜱的DNA多态性进行分析。　结果　 7种硬蜱分别扩增出不同数量与不同分子质量的DNA片段。有些硬蜱基因组DNA扩增产物中具有相同的DNA条带 ,这反映出它们的基因组DNA具有同源性 ;同时又具有各自独特的DNA条带 ,且DNA条带的亮度也有差异。　结论　RAPD技术可以准确地区分这 7种蜱。     

气候变暖对中国血吸虫病传播影响的预测

目的　预测气候变暖对中国血吸虫病传播影响的程度及范围。　方法　利用全国193个气象站1951～2000年的气象数据资料,建立地理信息系统(GIS)气象数据库,分析全国日均温度变化趋势。利用已建立的钉螺和日本血吸虫有效积温(SDT)模型的结果,构建全国不同地区血吸虫病气候 传播模型,计算各地钉螺和日本血吸虫年有效积温(ET),并应用GIS等技术比较分析ET/SDT比值的时空分布。以2030年和2050年我国平均气温将分别上升1.7℃和2.2℃为依据,预测未来全国血吸虫病流行区的扩散趋势和高危地带。　结果　建立了全国血吸虫病气象GIS数据库,在以前的50年中全国平均温度略呈上升趋势,尤其在上世纪90年代后上升趋势明显,回归方程为T年平均=0.0198X-28.476。构建了血吸虫病气候 传播模型,钉螺和日本血吸虫的ET/SDT的比值随年代略呈上升趋势,日本血吸虫的潜在分布区域大于钉螺潜在分布区域。 2030年和2050年血吸虫病潜在传播区域预测分布图显示,血吸虫病流行区将明显北移,2050年血吸虫病潜在流行的敏感区域较2030年的明显扩大。　结论　血吸虫病潜在流行区将随气候变暖出现北移,北移敏感区域是今后我国流行区北界线的监测工作重点     

Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horizon 2030 and 2050

Objective: To investigate and predict the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the main vector and reservoir hosts of the disease in Yazd province in the future.Methods: Distribution data for vector and reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Yazd province were obtained from earlier studies conducted in the area.MaxEnt ecological niche modeling was used to predict environmental suitability.BCC-CSM1-1(m) model and two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for horizons 2030 and 2050 climate projections.Future projections were based on data of a regional climate change model.Results: With both scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the results of jackknife test indicated that the mean temperature of wettest quarter and temperature annual range had the greatest effect on the model for the vector and the reservoir hosts, respectively.Conclusions: The climate conditions are the major determinants of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence rate in Yazd Province.These climate conditions provide favorable habitats for ease transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in this endemic area.Habitats suitability for the vector and reservoir will be expanding in the coming years compared with the current conditions, such that, in horizon 2030 2050, the probability of the presence of the vector and reservoir within 38 580 and 37 949 km~2, respectively, from Yazd province is above 60%.Moreover, an increase is predicted in the presence of the vector in the western parts and the reservoir in the northern and central parts of the province in the future.Understanding the role of environmental and bioclimatic factors in zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence can provide a guide for policy-makers in the creation and implementation of more effective policies for prevention and control.     

Distribution of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in northwestern China

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae), has a wide distribution in China with its northwestern limits among seven provinces. During 2006-2008, distribution information was collected in 33 urban and rural areas in those boundary provinces by collecting larvae or adult mosquito from different breeding sites. Additional information of seven sites was gathered from local health authorities. Three generally accepted climatic delineations affecting distribution of the species were studied for the northwestern distribution using a geographic information system software (ArcGIS). Climatic analysis showed that the annual mean temperature higher than 11°C, the mean temperature of the coldest month, January, higher than -5°C, and the annual precipitation above 500 mm covered almost all the confirmed areas and the seasonal expansion reached areas with nearly -10°C of the mean January temperature. As a main vector of dengue fever virus in a large part of China, where Aedes aegypti is absent, Ae. albopictus is also responsible for the risk for future epidemic of dengue fever and other viral diseases in China.     

Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China

Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.     

Environmental Determinants of the Distribution of Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma dimidiata in Colombia

Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) is a secondary vector of Trypanosoma cruzi in Colombia and represents an important epidemiological risk mainly in the central and oriental regions of the country where it occupies sylvatic, peridomestic, and intradomestic ecotopes, and because of this complex distribution, its distribution and abundance could be conditioned by environmental factors. In this work, we explored the relationship between T. dimidiata distribution and environmental factors in the northwest, northeast, and central zones of Colombia and developed predictive models of infestation in the country. The associations between the presence of T. dimidiata and environmental variables were studied using logistic regression models and ecological niche modeling for a sample of villages in Colombia. The analysis was based on the information collected in field about the presence of T. dimidiata and the environmental data for each village extracted from remote sensing images. The presence of Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille, 1811) was found to be significantly associated with the maximum vegetation index, minimum land surface temperature (LST), and the digital elevation for the statistical model. Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, and vegetation index were the variables that most influenced the ecological niche model of T. dimidiata distribution. The logistic regression model showed a good fit and predicted suitable habitats in the Andean and Caribbean regions, which agrees with the known distribution of the species, but predicted suitable habitats in the Pacific and Orinoco regions proposing new areas of research. Improved models to predict suitable habitats for T. dimidiata hold promise for spatial targeting of integrated vector management.     

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.