Changing mortality for motor neuron disease in France (1968–2007): an age-period-cohort analysis

The incidence and mortality of motor neuron disease (MND) increase with age and appear to have increased with time. The examination of period and cohort effects using age-period-cohort (APC) models can help characterize temporal trends. Our objective was to describe mortality from MND in France (1968–2007), and to examine the role of age, period of death, and birth-cohort on changes in mortality. The number of people who died from MND and population statistics (1968–2007) were extracted from French national records. Annual standardized (age/sex) mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed. Using Poisson regression, APC models examined the relationship between mortality rates and age, period of death, and birth-cohort in subjects aged 40–89 years. Deviance/degrees-of-freedom ratios evaluated model fit; ratios close to one indicated adequate fit. Between 1968 and 2007, 38,863 individuals died from MND (mortality rate = 1.74/100,000); 37,624 were aged 40–89 years. SMRs increased from 54 (95% CI = 49–59) in 1968 to 126 (120–132) in 2007. Male-to-female ratios declined from 1.80 in 1968 to 1.45 in 2007. Changing mortality rates were best explained by cohort effects (deviance/degrees-of-freedom = 1.09). The relative risk of dying from MND increased markedly for persons born between 1880 and 1920, and more slowly after 1920. In conclusion, mortality rates for MND increased between 1968 and 2007, and more rapidly in women than men. This increase was better explained by the birth-cohort of individuals than by period effects. Changing environmental exposures may be a possible explanation and these findings warrant the continued search for environmental risk factors for MND.     

Widening Rural–Urban Disparities in All-Cause Mortality and Mortality from Major Causes of Death in the USA, 1969–2009

This study examined trends in rural–urban disparities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the USA between 1969 and 2009. A rural–urban continuum measure was linked to county-level mortality data. Age-adjusted death rates were calculated by sex, race, cause-of-death, area-poverty, and urbanization level for 13 time periods between 1969 and 2009. Cause-of-death decomposition and log-linear and Poisson regression were used to analyze rural–urban differentials. Mortality rates increased with increasing levels of rurality overall and for non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and American Indians/Alaska Natives. Despite the declining mortality trends, mortality risks for both males and females and for blacks and whites have been increasingly higher in non-metropolitan than metropolitan areas, particularly since 1990. In 2005–2009, mortality rates varied from 391.9 per 100,000 population for Asians/Pacific Islanders in rural areas to 1,063.2 for blacks in small-urban towns. Poverty gradients were steeper in rural areas, which maintained higher mortality than urban areas after adjustment for poverty level. Poor blacks in non-metropolitan areas experienced two to three times higher all-cause and premature mortality risks than affluent blacks and whites in metropolitan areas. Disparities widened over time; excess mortality from all causes combined and from several major causes of death in non-metropolitan areas was greater in 2005–2009 than in 1990–1992. Causes of death contributing most to the increasing rural–urban disparity and higher rural mortality include heart disease, unintentional injuries, COPD, lung cancer, stroke, suicide, diabetes, nephritis, pneumonia/influenza, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer’s disease. Residents in metropolitan areas experienced larger mortality reductions during the past four decades than non-metropolitan residents, contributing to the widening gap.     

Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in Great Britain, 1976–2005: age-period-cohort analysis

Increases in the incidence of thyroid cancer have been previously reported. The purpose of the present study was to examine temporal trends in the incidence of primary thyroid cancer diagnosed in 0-49?year olds in parts of Great Britain during 1976-2005. Data on 4,337 cases of thyroid cancer were obtained from regional cancer registries. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to examine effects of age, sex, drift (linear trend), non-linear period and non-linear cohort. The best fitting negative binomial regression model included age (P?相似文献   

Rates of admission for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in France in 2009–2010: trends,geographic variation,costs, and an international comparison

Background

Admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are considered preventable and indicators of poor access to primary care. We wondered whether per-capita rates of admission for ACSCs in France demonstrated geographic variation, were changing, were related to other independent variables, or were comparable to those in other countries; further, we wanted to quantify the resources such admissions consume.

Methods

We calculated per-capita rates of admission for five categories (chronic, acute, vaccination preventable, alcohol-related, and other) of ACSCs in 94 departments in mainland France in 2009 and 2010, examined measures and causes of geographic variation in those rates, computed the costs of those admissions, and compared rates of admission for ACSCs in France to those in several other countries.

Results

The highest ACSC admission rates generally occurred in the young and the old, but rates varied across French regions. Over the 2-year period, rates of most categories of ACSCs increased; higher ACSC admission rates were associated with lower incomes and a higher supply of hospital beds. We found that the local supply of general practitioners was inversely associated with rates of chronic and total ACSC admission rates, but that this relationship disappeared if we accounted for patients’ use of general practitioners in neighboring departments. ACSC admissions cost 4.755 billion euros in 2009 and 5.066 billion euros in 2010; they consumed 7.86 and 8.74 million bed days of care, respectively. France had higher rates of ACSC admissions than most other countries examined.

Conclusions

Because admissions for ACSCs are generally considered a failure of outpatient care, cost French taxpayers substantial monetary and hospital resources, and appear to occur more frequently in France than in other countries, policymakers should prioritize targeted efforts to reduce them.

     

Epidemiological trends of sepsis in the twenty-first century (2000–2013): an analysis of incidence,mortality, and associated costs in Spain

Background

Sepsis has represented a substantial health care and economic burden worldwide during the previous several decades. Our aim was to analyze the epidemiological trends of hospital admissions, deaths, hospital resource expenditures, and associated costs related to sepsis during the twenty-first century in Spain.

Methods

We performed a retrospective study of all sepsis-related hospitalizations in Spanish public hospitals from 2000 to 2013. Data were obtained from records in the Minimum Basic Data Set. The outcome variables were sepsis, death, length of hospital stay (LOHS), and sepsis-associated costs. The study period was divided into three calendar periods (2000–2004, 2005–2009, and 2010–2013).

Results

Overall, 2,646,445 patients with sepsis were included, 485,685 of whom had died (18.4%). The incidence of sepsis (events per 1000 population) increased from 3.30 (2000–2004) to 4.28 (2005–2009) to 4.45 (2010–2013) (p?<?0.001). The mortality rates from sepsis (deaths per 10,000 population) increased from 6.34 (2000–2004) to 7.88 (2005–2009) to 7.89 (2010–2013) (p?<?0.001). The case fatality rate (CFR) or proportion of patients with sepsis who died decreased from 19.1% (2000–2004) to 18.4% (2005–2009) to 17.9% (2010–2013) (p?<?0.001). The LOHS (days) decreased from 15.9 (2000–2004) to 15.7 (2005–2009) to 14.5 (2010–2013) (p?<?0.001). Total and per patient hospital costs increased from 2000 to 2011, and then decreased by the impact of the economic crisis.

Conclusions

Sepsis has caused an increasing burden in terms of hospital admission, deaths, and costs in the Spanish public health system during the twenty-first century, but the incidence and mortality seemed to stabilize in 2010–2013. Moreover, there was a significant decrease in LOHS in 2010–2013 and a decline in hospital costs after 2011.

     

Cause-Specific Trends in Neonatal Mortality Among Black and White Infants,United States, 1980–1995

Objective: Although neonatal mortality has been declining more rapidly than postneonatal mortality in recent decades, neonatal mortality continues to account for close to two-thirds of all infant deaths. This report uses U.S. vital statistics data to describe national trends in the major causes of neonatal mortality among black and white infants from 1980 to 1995. Methods: Mortality rates were estimated as the number of deaths due to each cause (based on International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, codes) divided by the number of live births during the same time period. Linear regression models and smoothed rates were used to describe trends. Results: During the study period, neonatal mortality declined 4.0% per year for white infants and 2.2% per year for black infants, and the black–white gap increased from 2.0 to 2.4. By 1995, disorders relating to short gestation and low birth weight were the number one cause of neonatal death for black infants and the number two cause for white infants, had the highest black–white disparity (4.6, up from 3.3 in 1980), and accounted for almost 40% of excess deaths to black infants (up from 24% in 1980). Congenital anomalies were the number two cause of neonatal death for black infants and the highest ranked cause for white infants in 1995, and it is the only cause for which there was not a substantial excess risk to black infants. Conclusions: Large declines in neonatal mortality have been achieved in recent years, but not in the black–white gap, which has increased. Declines were slower for black than white infants overall and for almost all causes. Prevention of preterm delivery and low birth weight continue to be a priority for reducing neonatal mortality, particularly among black infants. Although congenital anomalies do not contribute substantially to the black–white gap, their diagnosis, treatment, and prevention is critical to reducing overall neonatal mortality.     

Systemic Sclerosis Mortality in the United States: 1979–1998

The US national mortality rates from systemic sclerosis (SSc) have not been reported since 1979. We studied age, gender and race specific time trends in US national mortality rates of SSc during the period 1979–1998 using poisson regression models. Over the 4.93 billion person-years of observation during the study period, there were 18,126 deaths from SSc, representing a mortality rate of 3.9 per million. The age adjusted mortality rates for men and women were 1.9 and 5.4 per million respectively. There were relatively few deaths in the extremes of age. SSc mortality rates increased with age in both genders and in all racial groups (p<0.001). In multivariable models adjusted for two-way statistical interactions, being African–American, female and of older age were associated with higher death rates. Over the 20 years of observation, overall (age-adjusted) SSc mortality rates showed a 36% increase (p<0.001) and subgroup analyses revealed that the increases were confined to women of both races. This rise occurred during a period in which post-diagnosis survival of SSc is known to have increased, suggesting an increasing incidence of this disease.     

Cancer incidence and mortality in France over the 1980–2012 period: Solid tumors

BackgroundCancer incidence and mortality estimates for 19 cancers (among solid tumors) are presented for France between 1980 and 2012.MethodsIncidence data were collected from 21 local registries and correspond to invasive cancers diagnosed between 1975 and 2009. Mortality data for the same period were provided by the Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale. The national incidence estimates were based on the use of mortality as a correlate of incidence. The observed incidence and mortality data were modeled using an age-period-cohort model. The numbers of incident cases and deaths for 2010–2012 are the result of short-term projections.ResultsIn 2012, the study estimated that 355,000 new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 148,000 deaths from cancer occurred in France. The incidence trend was not linear over the study period. After a constant increase from 1980 onwards, the incidence of cancer in men declined between 2005 and 2012. This recent decrease is largely related to the reduction in the incidence of prostate cancer. In women, the rates stabilized, mainly due to a change in breast cancer incidence. Mortality from most cancer types declined over the study period. A combined analysis of incidence and mortality by cancer site distinguished cancers with declining incidence and mortality (e.g., stomach) and cancers with increasing incidence and mortality (e.g., lung cancer in women). Some other cancers had rising incidence but declining mortality (e.g., thyroid).ConclusionThis study reveals recent changes in cancer incidence trends, particularly regarding breast and prostate cancers.     

Comparing trends in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer in the United Kingdom, 1983–2013: joinpoint regression analysis

Background

We aimed to study the time trends underlying a change from cardiovascular disease (CVD) to cancer as the most common cause of age-standardized mortality in the UK between 1983 and 2013.

Methods

A retrospective trend analysis of the World Health Organization mortality database for mortality from all cancers, all CVDs, and their three most common types, by sex and age. Age-standardized mortality rates were adjusted to the 2013 European Standard Population and analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis for annual percent changes.

Results

The difference in mortality rate between total CVD and cancer narrowed over the study period as age-standardized mortality from CVD decreased more steeply than cancer in both sexes. We observed higher overall rates for both diseases in men compared to women, with high mortality rates from ischemic heart disease and lung cancer in men. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated that trends of decreasing rates of CVD have increased over time while decreasing trends in cancer mortality rates have slowed down since the 1990s. The lowest improvements in mortality rates were for cancer in those over 75 years of age and lung cancer in women.

Conclusions

In 2011, the age-standardized mortality rate for cancer exceeded that of CVD in both sexes in the UK. These changing trends in mortality may support evidence for changes in policy and resource allocation in the UK.

     

A case–control study of occupational exposures and systemic sclerosis

Objectives A case–control study was conducted in Verona, Italy, to assess the relationship between occupation, occupational exposures and systemic sclerosis (SSc).Methods Fifty-five cases (46 female and nine male) and 171 controls were recruited. Interviews provided work histories, including job titles, industry and likelihood of occupational exposure to silica, hand–arm vibration, organic solvents, and other chemicals. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated.Results Female teachers (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.2–10.1) and textile workers (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0–4.6) were at an increased risk of SSc. Compared with those never exposed, age-adjusted and gender-adjusted ORs were 2.3 (95% CI 1.0–5.4) among subjects exposed to organic solvents, 2.5 (95% CI 0.8–8.0) for exposure to selected chemicals, 1.7 (95% CI 0.4–7.6) for exposure to silica, and 1.5 (95% CI 0.5–4.8) for usage of vibrating tools. When data analysis was stratified according to gender, only men showed a significant increase in risk for exposure to solvents and selected chemicals.Conclusions The findings of this study tend to support the role of organic solvents and certain chemicals in SSc causation. The association with teaching and working in the textile industry suggests that other exposures are involved in the aetiology of SSc among women. However, because of the small number of subjects, particularly in stratified analyses, chance cannot be ruled out as an explanation of some findings of this study.     

Space–Time Covariation of Mortality with Temperature: A Systematic Study of Deaths in France, 1968–2009

Background

The temperature–mortality relationship has repeatedly been found, mostly in large cities, to be U/J-shaped, with higher minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at low latitudes being interpreted as indicating human adaptation to climate.

Objectives

Our aim was to partition space with a high-resolution grid to assess the temperature–mortality relationship in a territory with wide climate diversity, over a period with notable climate warming.

Methods

The 16,487,668 death certificates of persons > 65 years of age who died of natural causes in continental France (1968–2009) were analyzed. A 30-km × 30-km grid was placed over the map of France. Generalized additive model regression was used to assess the temperature–mortality relationship for each grid square, and extract the MMT and the RM25 and RM25/18 (respectively, the ratios of mortality at 25°C/MMT and 25°C/18°C). Three periods were considered: 1968–1981 (P1), 1982–1995 (P2), and 1996–2009 (P3).

Results

All temperature–mortality curves computed over the 42-year period were U/J-shaped. MMT and mean summer temperature were strongly correlated. Mean MMT increased from 17.5°C for P1 to 17.8°C for P2 and to 18.2°C for P3 and paralleled the summer temperature increase observed between P1 and P3. The temporal MMT rise was below that expected from the geographic analysis. The RM25/18 ratio of mortality at 25°C versus that at 18°C declined significantly (p = 5 × 10^–5) as warming increased: 18% for P1, 16% for P2, and 15% for P3.

Conclusions

Results of this spatiotemporal analysis indicated some human adaptation to climate change, even in rural areas.

Citation:

Todd N, Valleron AJ. 2015. Space–time covariation of mortality with temperature: a systematic study of deaths in France, 1968–2009. Environ Health Perspect 123:659–664; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307771     

Socioeconomic inequalities and mortality trends in BRICS, 1990–2010

Objective

To explore the presence and magnitude of – and change in – socioeconomic and health inequalities between and within Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa – the countries known as BRICS – between 1990 and 2010.

Methods

Comparable data on socioeconomic and health indicators, at both country and primary subnational levels, were obtained from publicly available sources. Health inequalities between and within countries were identified and summarized by using standard gap and gradient metrics.

Findings

Four of the BRICS countries showed increases in both income level and income inequality between 1990 and 2010. The exception was Brazil, where income inequality decreased over the same period. Between-country inequalities in level of education and access to sanitation remained mostly unchanged but the largest between-country difference in mean life expectancy increased, from 9 years in 1990 to 20 years in 2010. Throughout the study period, there was disproportionality in the burden of disease between BRICS. However, the national infant mortality rate fell substantially over the study period in all five countries. In Brazil and China, the magnitude of subnational income-related inequalities in infant mortality, both absolute and relative, also decreased substantially.

Conclusion

Despite the economic prosperity and general improvements in health seen since 1990, profound inequalities in health persist both within and between BRICS. However, the substantial reductions observed – within Brazil and China – in the inequalities in income-related levels of infant mortality are encouraging.     

Measles incidence and reporting trends in Germany, 2007–2011

Objective

We aimed to quantify progress towards measles elimination in Germany from 2007 to 2011 and to estimate any potential underreporting over this period.

Methods

We determined the annual incidence of notified cases of measles – for each year – in northern, western, eastern and southern Germany and across the whole country. We then used measles-related health insurance claims to estimate the corresponding incidence.

Findings

In each year between 2007 and 2011, there were 6.9–19.6 (mean: 10.8) notified cases of measles per million population. Incidence decreased with age and showed geographical variation, with highest mean incidence – 20.3 cases per million – in southern Germany. Over the study period, incidence decreased by 10% (incidence rate ratio, IRR: 0.90; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.85–0.95) per year in western Germany but increased by 77% (IRR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.62–1.93) per year in eastern Germany. Although the estimated incidence of measles based on insurance claims showed similar trends, these estimates were 2.0- to 4.8-fold higher than the incidence of notified cases. Comparisons between the data sets indicated that the underreporting increased with age and was generally less in years when measles incidence was high than in low-incidence years.

Conclusion

Germany is still far from achieving measles elimination. There is substantial regional variation in measles epidemiology and, therefore, a need for region-specific interventions. Our analysis indicates underreporting in the routine surveillance system between 2007 and 2011, especially among adults.     

Temporal trends in disability evaluation and retirement in the Army,Navy, and Marine Corps: 2005–2011

BackgroundSurveillance of trends in disability is necessary to determine the burden of disability on the U.S. military, the most common types of disability conditions, and the prevalence of combat exposures in the disability population. Previous studies of disability in the U.S. military have focused on a particular service or condition rather than examining the epidemiology of disability in the military overall.ObjectiveThis study's objective is to describe rates of disability evaluation and retirement in U.S. Army, Navy, and Marine Corps.MethodsA cross-sectional study of 126,170 service members evaluated for disability discharge from the U.S. military in fiscal years 2005–2011 was conducted. Crude and standardized rates of disability evaluation and retirement were calculated per 10,000 service members by year of disability, demographic characteristics, and type of disability evaluation or retirement. Temporal trends in the prevalence of combat-related disability in the disability evaluated and retired population were also examined.ResultsRates of disability evaluation and retirement were highest among female, enlisted, and active duty service members. Overall rates of disability evaluation significantly decreased, while rates of disability retirement increased. Rates of psychiatric disability evaluation and retirement significantly increased in all services during the same time period from 2005 to 2011. Combat-related disability evaluations and retirements have substantially increased in all services particularly among psychiatric disability cases.ConclusionsPsychiatric disability, combat-related disability, and disability retirement continue to increase in the military, despite observed decreases in the rates of disability the Department of Defense since 2005.     

Mortality trends in Australian Aboriginal peoples and New Zealand Māori

Background

The health status of Indigenous populations of Australia and New Zealand (NZ) Māori manifests as life expectancies substantially lower than the total population. Accurate assessment of time trends in mortality and life expectancy allows evaluation of progress in reduction of health inequalities compared to the national or non-Indigenous population.

Methods

Age-specific mortality and life expectancy (at birth) (LE) for Indigenous populations (Australia from 1990 and NZ from 1950); and all Australia and non-Māori NZ (from 1890), males (M) and females (F), were obtained from published sources and national statistical agency reports. Period trends were assessed for credible estimates of Indigenous LE, and the LE gap compared to the total population for Australia, and non-Māori for NZ. Period trends in premature adult mortality, as cumulative probability of dying over 15–59 years, were assessed similarly. The relative contribution of differences in age-specific mortality to the LE gap between Indigenous and the all-Australia population, and the non-Māori NZ, was estimated for each country by sex for the most recent period: 2010–2012 for Australia, 2012–2014 for NZ.

Results

LE increased for all populations, although LE gaps between Indigenous and all Australia showed little change over time. LE gaps between NZ Māori and non-Māori increased significantly from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, and since then have fallen again. Recent LE gaps in Australia (M 12.5; F 12.0 years in 2010–2012) were larger than in NZ (M 7.3; F 6.8 years in 2012–2014). Premature adult mortality (15–59 years) improved for all populations, but mortality ratios show little change since 2000, with Indigenous at 3½-4 times that of all Australians, and Māori 2–3 times that of non-Māori. Using decomposition analysis, the age interval contributing most strongly to differences in LE between Indigenous and all Australia was 35–59 years, but between Māori and non-Māori it was 60–74 years.

Conclusion

In Australia and NZ, Indigenous LE and adult mortality are improving in absolute terms, but not relative to the entire or non-Indigenous populations, causing gaps in life expectancy to persist.

     

Plantago Ovata Consumption and Colorectal Mortality in Spain, 1995–2000

Background

Consumption of Plantago ovata may protect against colorectal cancer. To test this hypothesis, an ecological study was performed to determine mortality rates and distribution of colorectal cancer, and the consumption and distribution of P ovata, in different provinces in Spain. The putative association between P ovata consumption and mortality from colorectal cancer was then evaluated.

Methods

We conducted a comparative ecological study of Spanish provinces, with colorectal cancer mortality as the dependent variable and per capita consumption of P ovata by province and year as the independent variable. Associations were analyzed by calculating Spearman’s correlation coefficients and a Poisson multiple regression model.

Results

Consumption of P ovata tended to be inversely correlated with mortality from colorectal cancer. In the Poisson regression analysis this tendency remained and reached statistical significance for the top quintile of P ovata consumption in the adjusted analysis (P = 0.042).

Conclusions

Our results show an inverse trend between the consumption of P ovata and colorectal cancer mortality. We recommend additional observational studies of individuals, in order to better control confounding factors.Key words: colorectal cancer, Plantago ovata, ecological study, population study     

Socioeconomic Status and Foodborne Pathogens in Connecticut,USA, 2000–2011

Foodborne pathogens cause >9 million illnesses annually. Food safety efforts address the entire food chain, but an essential strategy for preventing foodborne disease is educating consumers and food preparers. To better understand the epidemiology of foodborne disease and to direct prevention efforts, we examined incidence of Salmonella infection, Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli infection, and hemolytic uremic syndrome by census tract–level socioeconomic status (SES) in the Connecticut Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network site for 2000–2011. Addresses of case-patients were geocoded to census tracts and linked to census tract–level SES data. Higher census tract–level SES was associated with Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli, regardless of serotype; hemolytic uremic syndrome; salmonellosis in persons ≥5 years of age; and some Salmonella serotypes. A reverse association was found for salmonellosis in children <5 years of age and for 1 Salmonella serotype. These findings will inform education and prevention efforts as well as further research.