Predicting prolonged duration of fever in children: a cohort study in primary care

Background

Fever in children in primary care is commonly caused by benign infections, but often worries parents. Information about the duration of fever and its predictors may help in reassuring parents, leading to diminished consultation of health care.

Aim

To determine which signs and symptoms predict a prolonged duration of fever in febrile children in primary care and evaluate whether C-reactive protein (CRP) measurement has an additive predictive value for these symptoms.

Design and setting

A prospective cohort study at a GPs’ cooperative (GPC) out-of-hours service.

Method

Children (aged 3 months to 6 years) presenting with fever as stated by the parents were included. Exclusion criteria were no communication in Dutch possible, previous enrolment in the study within 2 weeks, referral to the hospital directly after visiting the GPC, or no informed consent. The main outcome measure was prolonged duration of fever (>3 days) after initial contact.

Results

Four-hundred and eighty children were analysed, and the overall risk of prolonged duration was 13% (63/480). Multivariate analysis combined model of patient history and physical examination showed that ‘sore throat’ (OR 2.8; 95% CI = 1.30 to 6.01) and ‘lymph nodes palpable’ (OR 1.87; 95% CI = 1.01 to 3.49) are predictive for prolonged duration of fever. The discriminative value of the model was low (AUC 0.64). CRP had no additive value in the prediction of prolonged duration of fever (OR 1.00; 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.01).

Conclusion

The derived prediction model indicates that only a few signs and symptoms are related to prolonged duration of fever. CRP has no additional value in this model. Overall, because the discriminative value of the model was low, the duration of fever cannot be accurately predicted.     

Use of alarm features in referral of febrile children to the emergency department: an observational study

Background

The diagnostic value of alarm features of serious infections in low prevalence settings is unclear.

Aim

To explore to what extent alarm features play a role in referral to the emergency department (ED) by GPs who face a febrile child during out-of-hours care.

Design and setting

Observational study using semi-structured, routine clinical practice data of febrile children (<16 years) presenting to GP out-of-hours care.

Method

Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between alarm features of serious infections (selected from two guidelines and one systematic review) and referral to the ED. Adherence to the guideline was explored by a 2×2 contingency table.

Results

In total 794 (8.1%) of 9794 eligible patients were referred to the ED. Alarm signs most strongly associated with referral were ‘age <1 month’, ‘decreased consciousness’, ‘meningeal irritation’, and ‘signs of dehydration’. Nineteen percent of 3424 children with a positive referral indication according to the guideline were referred to the ED. The majority of those not referred had only one or two alarm features present. A negative referral indication was adhered to for the majority of children. Still, in 20% of referred children, alarm features were absent.

Conclusion

In contrast to guidance, GPs working in primary out-of-hours care seem more conservative in referring febrile children to the ED, especially if only one or two alarm features of serious infection are present. In addition, in 20% of referred children, alarm features were absent, which suggests that other factors may be important in decisions about referral of febrile children to the hospital ED.     

Recorded quality of primary care for osteoarthritis: an observational study

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common chronic disease in the UK, with greater prevalence in women, older people, and those with poorer socioeconomic status. Effective treatments are available, yet little is known about the quality of primary care for this disabling condition.

Aim

To measure the recorded quality of primary care for osteoarthritis, and assess variavariations by patient and/or practice characteristics.

Design of study

Retrospective observational study.

Setting

Eighteen general practices in England.

Method

Records of 320/393 randomly selected patients with osteoarthritis (response rate 81%) were reviewed. High-quality health care was specified by nine quality indicators. Logistic regression modelling assessed variations in quality by age, sex, deprivation, severity, time since diagnosis, and practice size.

Results

There was substantial variation in the recorded achievement of individual indicators (range 5% to 90%). The percentage of eligible patients whose records show that they received care in the form of information provision ranged from 17% to 30%. For regular assessment indicators the range was 27% to 43%, and for treatment indicators the range was 5% to 90%. Recorded achievement of quality indicators was higher in those with more severe osteoarthritis (odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.69) and in older patients (OR 1.14, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.28). There were no significant variations by deprivation score.

Conclusion

This study has demonstrated the feasibility of using existing robust quality indicators to measure the quality of primary care for osteoarthritis, and has found considerable scope for improvement in the recording of high-quality care. The lack of variation between practices suggests that system-level initiatives may be needed to achieve improvement. One challenge will be to improve care for all, without losing the equitable distribution of care identified.     

Recorded quality of care for depression in general practice: an observational study

Background

Depression is a leading cause of disease and disability internationally, and is responsible for many primary care consultations. Little is known about the quality of primary care for depression in the UK.

Aim

To determine the prevalence of good-quality primary care for depression, and to analyse variations in quality by patient and practice characteristics.

Design of study

Retrospective observational study.

Setting

Eighteen general practices in England.

Method

Medical records were examined for 279 patients. The percentage of eligible participants diagnosed with depression who received the care specified by each of six quality indicators in 2002 and 2004 was assessed. Associations between quality achievement and age, sex, patient deprivation score, timepoint, and practice size were estimated using logistic regression.

Results

There was very wide variation in achievement of different indicators (range 1–97%). Achievement was higher for indicators referring to treatment and follow-up than for indicators referring to history taking. Achievement of quality indicators was low overall (37%). Quality did not vary significantly by patient or practice characteristics.

Conclusion

There is substantial scope for improvement in the quality of primary care for depression, if the highest achievement rates could be matched for all indicators. Given the lack of variation by practice characteristics, system-level and educational interventions may be the best ways to improve quality. The equitable distribution of quality by patient deprivation score is an important achievement that may be challenging to maintain as quality improves.     

Practice size and service provision in primary care: an observational study

Background

In 2004, primary care payments for basic services and enhanced services were separated. This change has greatly facilitated the evaluation of the breadth and volume of services.

Aim

To determine whether larger practices produce a higher volume and greater diversity of enhanced services.

Design of study

Cross-sectional observational study using practice data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act 2000.

Setting

A total of 384 practices in 14 English primary care trusts.

Method

Practice data for all practices were collated for enhanced services, practice size, and deprivation. Diversity and volume of enhanced services were used as dependent variables in a series of multiple regression models to ascertain the effect of practice size, and any relationship with deprivation.

Results

Larger practices provided a greater diversity of services (P = 0.002), although this effect was not present in practices with more than 6330 patients. Practice size seems to influence the volume of enhanced services in general medical services, but this effect disappeared when deprivation was taken into account. Deprivation had a negative influence on the volume of enhanced services provided (P = 0.019). The effect of deprivation on volume persisted in practices with more than 6330 patients.

Conclusion

Current average-sized practices provide similar volume and diversity of enhanced services as those in the largest quartile; therefore, there seems to be little merit in creating ‘supersurgeries’ if the aim is to transfer work from secondary to primary care. There does not seem to be an upper threshold above which practice size creates spare capacity and expertise to deliver a significantly greater volume or more diversity of extra services.     

Triage of febrile children at a GP cooperative: determinants of a consultation.

BACKGROUND: Most febrile children contacting a GP cooperative are seen by a GP, although the incidence of serious illness is low. The guidelines for triage might not be suitable in primary care. AIM: To investigate the determinants related to the outcome of triage in febrile children. DESIGN OF STUDY: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Dutch GP cooperative. METHOD: Receptionists filled out a triage questionnaire when parents called regarding their febrile child (aged between 3 months and 6 years) and estimated the level of concern of the parents. The outcome was either telephone advice, a consultation, or a home visit. Children were divided in subgroups based on age <18 months or > or = 18 months, and prognostic models for a consultation were constructed. RESULTS: Of 422 children, 73% were seen by a GP. Children aged <18 months were more likely to be seen when their parents reported less drinking or shortness of breath. In children aged > or = 18 months, a duration of fever of > or = 3 days, drowsiness, or a pale, ashen, or mottled skin were predictors of consultation. Children with alarm symptoms were seen according to the guideline. In both subgroups, children without alarm symptoms were more likely to be seen when their parents were concerned. CONCLUSION: The available guideline was followed to a large extent at a GP cooperative. Because, surprisingly, most children were reported to have alarm symptoms, the validity of the triage questions asking parents about alarm symptoms is questionable.     

Improving anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation: observational study in three primary care trusts

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a cause of stroke, and undertreatment with anticoagulants is a persistent issue despite their effectiveness.

Aim

To increase the proportion of people with AF treated appropriately using anticoagulants, and reduce inappropriate antiplatelet therapy.

Design of study

Cross-sectional analysis.

Setting

Electronic patient health records on 4604 patients with AF obtained from general practices in three inner London primary care trusts between April 2011 and 2013.

Method

The Anticoagulant Programme East London (APEL) sought to achieve its aims through an intervention with three components: altering professional beliefs using new clinical guidance and related education; facilitating change using computer software to support clinical decisions and patient review optimising anticoagulation; motivating change through evaluative feedback showing individual practice performance relative to peers.

Results

From April 2011 to April 2013, the proportion of people with CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥1 on anticoagulants increased from 52.6% to 59.8% (trend difference P<0.001). The proportion of people with CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥1 on aspirin declined from 37.7% to 30.3% (trend difference P<0.001). Comparing the 2 years before the intervention with the 2 years after, numbers of new people on the AF register almost doubled from 108 to 204.

Conclusions

The APEL programme supports improvement in clinical managing AF by a combined programme of education around agreed guidance, computer aids to facilitate decision-making and patient review and feedback of locally identifiable results. If replicated nationally over 3 years, such a programme could result in approximately 1600 fewer strokes every year.     

Quality of clinical primary care and targeted incentive payments: an observational study

BACKGROUND: Payments for recorded evidence of quality of clinical care in UK general practices were introduced in 2004. AIM: To examine the relationship between changes in recorded quality of care for four common chronic conditions from, 2003 to 2005, and the payment of incentives. DESIGN OF STUDY: Retrospective observational study comparing incentivised and non-incentivised indicators of quality of care. SETTING: Eighteen general practices in England. METHOD: Medical records were examined for 1156 patients. The percentage of eligible quality indicators achieved for each patient was assessed in 2003 and 2005. Twenty-one quality indicators referred to asthma and hypertension: six subject to and 15 not subject to incentive payments. Another 15 indicators referred to depression and osteoarthritis which were not subject to incentive payments. RESULTS: A significant increase occurred for the six indicators linked to incentive payments: from 75% achieved in 2003 to 91% in 2005 (change = 16%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 10 to 22%, P <0.01). A significant increase also occurred for 15 other indicators linked to 'incentivised conditions'; 53 to 64% (change = 11%, 95% CI = 6 to 15%, P <0.01). The 'non-incentivised conditions' started at a lower achievement level, and did not increase significantly: 35 to 36% (change = 2%, 95% CI = -1 to 4%, P = 0.19). CONCLUSION: The introduction of financial incentives was associated with substantial apparent quality improvement for incentivised conditions. For non-incentivised conditions, quality did not appear to improve. Patients with non-incentivised conditions may be at risk of poorer quality care.     

Primary care characteristics and population-orientated health care across Europe: an observational study

Background

The number of patients with chronic diseases is increasing which poses a challenge to healthcare organisations. A proactive, structured, and population-orientated approach is needed: the chronic care model (CCM) provides such a framework.

Aim

To assess organisational conditions for providing structured chronic care according to the CCM across different healthcare systems.

Design of study

International observational study.

Setting

A stratified sample of 315 primary care practices in 10 European countries and Israel in 2008 and 2009.

Method

Practice questionnaires and interviews. Outcome measures were mean practice scores on CCM domains per country, as a percentage of the maximum score, and the influence of practice size and urbanisation on these scores.

Results

Practice size showed large differences with the largest practices in Spain, England, Finland, and Israel. These countries, with a strong primary care orientation, had most physicians and staff involved per practice. The CCM domains ‘clinical information systems’ and ‘decision support’ had total practice means of 90%; other domains scored about 50%. Spain and England scored above average on almost all domains. Practice size and urbanisation had little impact.

Conclusion

Characteristics for chronic care delivery differed for most CCM domains. The most common characteristics related to computerisation, providing a good starting point and high potential everywhere. All countries showed room for improvement. Further research should focus on relations between practice characteristics, organisational features, including health system and primary care orientation, and outcomes. Primary care seems suited for chronic care delivery; however, a stronger primary care was associated with better scores.     

Practitioners' views on managing childhood obesity in primary care: a qualitative study

Background

In 2006 the Department of Health and the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) published guidance on the management of childhood obesity, for use by primary care practitioners. Little is known, however, about practitioners'' views and experiences of managing childhood obesity in primary care.

Aim

To explore practitioners'' views of primary care as a setting in which to treat childhood obesity.

Design of study

Qualitative interview study.

Setting

Primary care and other community settings based in Bristol, England.

Method

Interviews explored practitioners'' views and experiences of managing childhood obesity and their knowledge of the recent guidance provided by the Department of Health and NICE. Interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. Analysis was thematic and comparisons made both within and across the interviews.

Results

Thirty practitioners were interviewed: 12 GPs, 10 practice nurses, four school nurses, and four health visitors. Participants varied in their views about whether primary care is an appropriate treatment setting for childhood obesity. However, all described factors that limited the extent to which they could intervene effectively: a lack of expertise, resources, and contact with primary school children; the causes of childhood obesity; and the need to work with parents. It was also apparent that very few participants had knowledge of the recent guidance.

Conclusion

Practitioners do not currently view primary care as an effective treatment setting for childhood obesity and it is unlikely that the guidance from the Department of Health and NICE will have a meaningful impact on their management of this condition.     

Risk of childhood cancer with symptoms in primary care: a population-based case-control study

Background

Guidelines describing symptoms in children that should alert GPs to consider cancer have been developed, but without any supporting primary-care research.

Aim

To identify symptoms and signs in primary care that strongly increase the likelihood of childhood cancer, to assist GPs in selection of children for investigation.

Design and setting

A population-based case-control study in UK general practice.

Method

Using electronic primary care records from the UK General Practice Research Database, 1267 children aged 0–14 years diagnosed with childhood cancer were matched to 15 318 controls. Clinical features associated with subsequent diagnosis of cancer were identified using conditional logistic regression, and likelihood ratios and positive predictive values (PPVs) were estimated for each.

Results

Twelve symptoms were associated with PPVs of ≥0.04%, which represents a greater than tenfold increase in prior probability. The six symptoms with the highest PPVs were pallor (odds ratio, OR = 84; PPV = 0.41% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.12% to 1.34%), head and neck masses (OR = 17; PPV = 0.30%; 95% CI = 0.10% to 0.84%), masses elsewhere (OR = 22; PPV = 0.11%; 95% CI = 0.06% to 0.20%), lymphadenopathy (OR = 10; PPV = 0.09%; 95% CI = 0.06% to 0.13%), symptoms/signs of abnormal movement (OR = 16; PPV = 0.08%; 95% CI = 0.04% to 0.14%), and bruising (OR = 12; PPV = 0·08%; 95% CI = 0.05% to 0.13%). When each of these 12 symptoms was combined singly with at least three consultations in a 3-month period, the probability of cancer was between 11 and 76 in 10 000.

Conclusion

Twelve features of childhood cancers were identified, each of which increased the risk of cancer at least tenfold. These symptoms, particularly when combined with multiple consultations, warrant careful evaluation in general practice.     

Childhood urinary tract infection in primary care: a prospective observational study of prevalence,diagnosis, treatment,and recovery

BackgroundThe prevalence of targeted and serendipitous treatment for, and associated recovery from, urinary tract infection (UTI) in pre-school children is unknown.AimTo determine the frequency and suspicion of UTI in children who are acutely ill, along with details of antibiotic prescribing, its appropriateness, and whether that appropriateness impacted on symptom improvement and recovery.MethodSystematic urine sampling from children aged <5years presenting in primary care with acute illness with culture in NHS laboratories.ResultsOf 6079 children’s urine samples, 339 (5.6%) met laboratory criteria for UTI and 162 (47.9%) were prescribed antibiotics at the initial consultation. In total, 576/7101 (8.1%) children were suspected of having a UTI prior to urine sampling, including 107 of the 338 with a UTI (clinician sensitivity 31.7%). Children with a laboratory-diagnosed UTI were more likely to be prescribed antibiotics when UTI was clinically suspected than when it was not (86.0% versus 30.3%, P<0.001). Of 231 children with unsuspected UTI, 70 (30.3%) received serendipitous antibiotics (that is, antibiotics prescribed for a different reason). Overall, 176 (52.1%) children with confirmed UTI did not receive any initial antibiotic. Organism sensitivity to the prescribed antibiotic was higher when UTI was suspected than when treated serendipitously (77.1% versus 26.0%; P<0.001). Children with UTI prescribed appropriate antibiotics at the initial consultation improved a little sooner than those with a UTI who were not prescribed appropriate antibiotics initially (3.5 days versus 4.0 days; P = 0.005).ConclusionOver half of children with UTI on culture were not prescribed antibiotics at first presentation. Serendipitous UTI treatment was relatively common, but often inappropriate to the organism’s sensitivity. Methods for improved targeting of antibiotic treatment in children who are acutely unwell are urgently needed.     

A clinical prediction rule for meniscal tears in primary care: development and internal validation using a multicentre study

Background

In primary care, meniscal tears are difficult to detect. A quick and easy clinical prediction rule based on patient history and a single meniscal test may help physicians to identify high-risk patients for referral for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

Aim

The study objective was to develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR) for the detection of meniscal tears in primary care.

Design and setting

In a cross-sectional multicentre study, 121 participants from primary care were included if they were aged 18–65 years with knee complaints that existed for <6 months, and who were suspected to suffer from a meniscal tear.

Method

One diagnostic physical meniscal test and 14 clinical variables were considered to be predictors of MRI outcome. Using known predictors for the presence of meniscal tears, a ‘quick and easy’ CPR was derived.

Results

The final CPR included the variables sex, age, weight-bearing during trauma, performing sports, effusion, warmth, discolouration, and Deep Squat test. The final model had an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI = 0.72 to 0.80). A cut-point of 150 points yielded an overall sensitivity of 86.1% and a specificity of 45.5%. For this cut-point, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, and the negative predictive value was 81.1%. A scoring system was provided including the corresponding predicted probabilities for a meniscal tear.

Conclusion

The CPR improved the detection of meniscal tears in primary care. Further evaluation of the CPR in new primary care patients is needed, however, to assess its usefulness.     

Primary care access and its relationship with emergency department utilisation: an observational, cross-sectional, ecological study

Background

Recent health service policies in the UK have focused on improving primary care access in order to reduce the use of costly emergency department services, even though the relationship between the two is based on weak or little evidence. Research is required to establish whether improving primary care access can influence emergency department attendance.

Aim

To ascertain whether a relationship exists between the degree of access to GP practices and avoidable emergency department attendances in an inner-London primary care trust (PCT).

Design and setting

Observational, cross-sectional ecological study in 68 general practices in Brent Primary Care Trust, north London, UK.

Method

GP practices were used as the unit of analysis and avoidable emergency department attendance as the dependent variable. Routinely collected data from GP practices, Hospital Episode Statistics, and census data for the period covering 2007–2009 were used across three broad domains: GP access characteristics, population characteristics, and health status aggregated to the level of the GP practice. Multiple linear regression was used to ascertain which variables account for the variation in emergency department attendance experienced by patients registered to each GP practice.

Results

None of the GP access variables accounted for the variation in emergency department attendance. The only variable that explained this variance was the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). For every unit increase in IMD score of the GP practice, there would be an increase of 6.13 (95% CI = 4.56, 7.70) per 1000 patients per year in emergency department attendances. This accounted for 47.9% of the variance in emergency department attendances in Brent.

Conclusion

Avoidable emergency department attendance appears to be mostly driven by underlying deprivation rather than by the degree of access to primary care.