Enhancing Coordination for Effective Management of Oil Spill Pollution in South Africa

Although multi-sectoral coordination in disaster risk management has been progressing in South Africa for over two decades,there has been limited commitment to an integrated regime in managing marine oil spill incidents.Poor incident management persists despite the availability of data,protocols,legislation,and resources housed in different government and private sector entities.This study identified practices that enhance a coordination process for the effective management of oil spill pollution.A grounded theory approach is applied to the coordination issue,which is characterized by an interactive process of simultaneously considering theoretical grounding during our empirical research.Empirical evidence includes observations of 47meetings and three oil spill exercises with 79 delegates from 32 different organizations,which supports the coordination process of instituting a national Incident Management System for marine oil spills in South Africa.An additional 44 individual open-ended questionnaires supplement this earlier body of evidence for data triangulation and validation.Analysis of development of the Incident Management System process revealed that,when designing a novel long-term project that is reliant on a shared vision from multiple organizations,enhanced coordination and collaboration for successful implementation is dependent on the following practices:(1)obtaining political commitment,(2)bridging knowledge gaps,and(3)sharing resources.     

Examining the Factors that Influence the Use of Social Media for Disaster Management by Underserved Communities

This study examined the propensity of social media use by underserved communities by drawing on the literature on the digital divide and attribution theory.Specifically,this research explored the factors that can influence the use of social media for disaster management.The study used survey methodology to collect data and partial least squares structural equation modeling(PLSSEM)to analyze the data and test the hypotheses.The results of the study indicate:(1)that the propensity of social media use for disaster management is low for underserved communities;(2)a positive relationship between an individual’s effort and the intention to use social media for disaster management;and(3)a negative relationship between task difficulty and the intention to use social media for disaster management.The study expanded the literature on the use of social media in disaster management.The article also provides both theoretical and practical implications.     

The Emergence of a Globalized System for Disaster Risk Management and Challenges for Appropriate Governance

Disaster risk management(DRM) is undergoing noteworthy changes, reflecting the broader shifts in global and local levels of governance. At the global level two significant changes are of interest:(1) the shift from monolithic structures of global governance to a wide range of organizations that can be brought together for specific purposes and(2) the emergence of a globalized system of DRM, with technological, organizational, and institutional capacities enhancing DRM's ability as a unit in near real time across the globe. At the local level there is an increase in ability to govern and develop creative solutions for complex problems that follow rapid urbanization. The importance of getting the global–local interface to work in tandem has been highlighted by recent hazard events, such as the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami. From a broad view of global and local shifts, a strategic role is becoming clearer at the national level for enhancing the relationships between the global and local levels. Through the influence of a globalized system of DRM, the local level can significantly improve its capacity without the heavy investment that might have been required to develop these capacities in isolation. One key to achieving this is adiffusion of DRM higher education, supported by an enhanced system of information flow.     

A Probabilistic Approach to the Evaluation of Seismic Resilience in Road Asset Management

Road networks are classified as critical infrastructure systems.Their loss of functionality not only hinders residential and commercial activities,but also compromises evacuation and rescue after disasters.Dealing with risks to key strategic objectives is not new to asset management,and risk management is considered one of the core elements of asset management.Risk analysis has recently focused on understanding and designing strategies for resilience,especially in the case of seismic events that present a significant hazard to highway transportation networks.Following a review of risk and resilience concepts and metrics,an innovative methodology to stochastically assess the economic resources needed to restore damaged infrastructures,one that is a relevant and complementary element within a wider resilience-based framework,is proposed.The original methodology is based on collecting and analyzing ex post reconstruction and hazard data and was calibrated on data measured during the earthquake that struck central Italy in 2016 and collected in the following recovery phase.Although further improvements are needed,the proposed approach can be used effectively by road managers to provide useful information in developing seismic retrofitting plans.     

Simulation-Based and Risk-Informed Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tsunami Evacuation Routes Using Agent-Based Modeling:A Case Study of Seaside,Oregon

Typically,tsunami evacuation routes are marked using signs in the transportation network and the evacuation map is made to educate people on how to follow the evacuation route.However,tsunami evacuation routes are usually identified without the support of evacuation simulation,and the route effectiveness in the reduction of evacuation risk is typically unknown quantitatively.This study proposes a simulation-based and risk-informed framework for quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of evacuation routes in reducing evacuation risk.An agentbased model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation,which is then used in a simulation-based risk assessment framework to evaluate the evacuation risk.The route effectiveness in reducing the evacuation risk is evaluated by investigating how the evacuation risk varies with the proportion of the evacuees that use the evacuation route.The impacts of critical risk factors such as evacuation mode(for example,on foot or by car)and population size and distribution on the route effectiveness are also investigated.The evacuation risks under different cases are efficiently calculated using the augmented sample-based approach.The proposed approach is applied to the riskinformed evaluation of the route effectiveness for tsunami evacuation in Seaside,Oregon.The evaluation results show that the route usage is overall effective in reducing the evacuation risk in the study area.The results can be used for evacuation preparedness education and hence effective evacuation.     

Permafrost Thaw and Associated Settlement Hazard Onset Timing over the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor

In permafrost areas, the timing of thermal surface settlement hazard onset is of great importance for the construction and maintenance of engineering facilities.Future permafrost thaw and the associated thermal settlement hazard onset timing in the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor(QTEC) were analyzed using high-resolution soil temperature data from the Community Land Model version4 in combination with multiple model and scenario soil temperature data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5). Compared to the standard frozen ground map for the Tibetan Plateau and ERAInterim data, a multimodel ensemble reproduces the extent of permafrost and soil temperature change in the QTEC at a 1 m depth from 1986–2005. Soil temperature and active layer thickness increase markedly during 2006–2099 using CMIP5 scenarios. By 2099, the ensemble mean soil temperature at 15 m depth will increase between 1.0 and 3.6 ℃ in the QTEC. Using crushed-rock revetments can delay the onset of thermal settlement hazard for colder permafrost areas by approximately 17 years in the worst case scenario of RCP8.5. Nearly one-third of the area of the QTEC exhibits settlement hazard as early as 2050, and half of this one-third of the area is traversed by the QinghaiTibet highway/railway, a situation that requires more planning and remedial attention. Simulated onsets of thermal settlement hazard correspond well to the observed soil temperature at 15 m depth for seven grid areas in the QETC, which to some extent indicates that these timingestimates are reasonable. This study suggests that climate model-based timing estimation of thermal settlement hazard onset is a valuable method, and that the results are worthy of consideration in engineering design and evaluation.     

Development of a Method for Assessing Country-Based Flood Risk at the Global Scale

International frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 require the quantification of country-based flood risk.However,few approaches at the global scale include the three necessary components(hazard,exposure,and vulnerability)for determining disaster risk and are country-based assessments,owing to major challenges such as limited data availability and vulnerability proxy selection.Therefore,in this study,a method was developed with the following features:Incorporating the hazard,exposure,and vulnerability components;Applicable to the vast majority of countries in the world;Visualizing priority countries and illustrating effective measures and strategies;Clear and easy to understand by leaders and decision makers of international organizations,governments,and other stakeholders;Identifying each country’s challenges and providing guidance on specific issues for more detailed investigation and policy creation;Including more extensive factors compared with past studies.In Asia and the Pacific,the Flood Risk Index computed by the developed method is compared with the fatality ratio,and the results show that improving flood resilience secures people and society regardless of the magnitude and frequency of floods.Analysis at the global scale visualizes regional tendencies and indicates that countries closer to the equator have higher flood risk.Analysis of country-based flood risk based on five indicators demonstrates that the developed method can assist international organizations,governments,and other stakeholders to further examine country-specific conditions and establish and implement policies and strategies toward building a resilient society and achieving international targets.     

Neonate - primed CD8^＋ Memory Cells Rival Adult- primed Memory Cells in Antigendriven Expansion and Anti - viral Protection

Objective To study the inter - relationship between the size of the memory cell population and its function in CD8^＋ memory cells in neonate- primed mice. Methods mice primed as neonates with a We examined natural murine the generation and expansion of pathogen, Cas- Br- E mufine leukemia virus （Cas）. Results We found that neonate- primed virus- specific cells are not intrinsically programmed to proliferate more than adult - primed CD8^＋ cells, but that competition for space or growth factors could account for the enhanced secondary expansion. We also evaluated the functional efficacy of memory virus- specific ceils generated after neonatal and adult priming. We found that when equivalent numbers of virus - specific cells were transferred, protection was similar whether donor, immune mice were primed as neonates or adults. Conclusions The protective qualities of CD8^＋ memory cells are essentially equivalent on a per cells basis between mice primed as neonates and adults.     

The Application of Model-Based Systems Engineering to Rural Healthcare System Disaster Planning:A Scoping Review

Disasters and other emergency events have complex effects on human systems,particularly if the events are severe or prolonged.When these types of events happen in rural communities,the resources of the local public health,healthcare,and emergency response organizations can be quickly depleted or overwhelmed.Planning for emergencies can help to mitigate their impact.Model-based systems engineering(MBSE) methods,including computer simulations,can provide insight on how best to prepare for these ev...     

When It Strikes,Are We Ready?Lessons Identified at the 7th Planetary Defense Conference in Preparing for a Near-Earth Object Impact Scenario

Near-Earth object(NEO)impact is one of the examples of high impact and low probability(HILP)event,same as the Covid-19 pandemic the world faces since the beginning of 2020.The 7 th Planetary Defense Conference held by the International Academy of Astronautics(IAA)in April 2021 included an exercise on a hypothetical NEO impact event,allowing the planetary defense community to discuss potential responses.Over the span of the 4-day conference this exercise connected disaster response and management professionals to participate in a series of panels,providing feedback and perspective on the unfolding crisis scenario.The hypothetical but realistic asteroid threat scenario illustrated how such a short-warning threat might evolve.The scenario utilized during the conference indicates a need to prepare now for what might come in the future,because even with advance notice,preparation time might be minimal.This scenario chose Europe for the impact,which may likely cope with such a disaster,through the Union Civil Protection Mechanism(UCPM)and other solidarity and support mechanisms within the European Union(EU),as well as with potential support from international partners.This short article raises concern about other areas in the world on how they may access NEO impact information and cope with such disasters.It also provides an idea on vast scale of such disaster vis-a-vis the current capacity of response systems to cope with a larger event in Europe or elsewhere.This scenario showed that planetary defense is a global endeavor.Constant engagement of the planetary defense and disaster response communities is essential in order to keep the world safe from potential disasters caused by NEO impacts.     

Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction Following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami: A Business Process Management Perspective

The Tohoku Regional Bureau(TRB) of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(MLIT) performed various actions in response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. The total disaster recovery and reconstruction period is expected to last for 10 years, of which the first five years are regarded as the concentrated reconstruction period. As of 2013, a majority of the mega projects that involved restoration actions have been completed, which indicates a more effective rate of completion compared with the MLIT projects performed in normal non-disaster situations. This short article explains the management process of the recovery and reconstruction utilized by the TRB—an interorganizational process—from a business process management(BPM) perspective and creates a simple organization construction diagram of the entire process. The study focused on the transactions and actor roles to identify their strengths. The findings indicate the utilization of different operational procedures in some parts of the process, the importance of liaison role, as well as some obstacles. The lessons learned from this analysis can assist managers and researchers in designing and managing restoration processes for future disasters.     

The Role of Knowledge in Disaster Risk Reduction

Disaster risk reduction policy and practice require knowledge for informed decision making and coordinated action. Although the knowledge production and implementation processes are critical for disaster risk reduction, these issues are seldom systematically addressed in-depth in disaster studies and policy programs. While efforts and improvements have been made with regard to data and information, only limited resources are committed to improving knowledge management structures and integrating knowledge systems at different spatial levels. The recently adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 addresses knowledge-related issues and provides the opportunity to highlight the critical role of knowledge in disaster risk reduction. This article presents insights into potential conceptualizations of knowledge that would advance disaster research and policy. We use cases from France to illustrate challenges of and pathways to disaster risk reduction. We suggest to further strengthen efforts that improve our understanding of the connections between disaster risk, knowledge, and learning. A better integration of multiple scales, different societal actors,various knowledge sources, and diverse disciplines into disaster risk research will increase its relevance for decision-makers in policy and practice. Well-targeted incentives and political backing will improve the coherence,coordination, and sharing of knowledge among various actors and arenas.     

职业暴露和环境污染引起疾病的因果关系的判断:总体判断和个体判断

Demonstration of a causal relationship between chemical exposure and injury in litigation of toxic tort cases is a key to winning the case in Court. To evaluate whether a case has merit, two levels of causations,general causation and specific causation, are considered.““““ General causation““““ refers to the question, does exposure to the toxicant cause the type of injury.9 For example, does aluminum welding fume cause lung cancer.'? Bradford Hill' s nine criteria are used to analyze ““““general causation.““““ These criteria include strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and analogy. ““““Specific causation““““ refers to the question, did the Plaintiff's exposure to the toxicant cause the injury in this individual. For example, was Mr. Smith's lung cancer caused by his occupational exposure to aluminum welding fume.'? In court, the Judge and jury are asked to make a decision about specific causation, and award or deny damages accordingly. The expert witnesses testify as advisor to the court. As health consultants,we ask five questions to evaluate specific causation: 1 .Was the individual exposed to a toxicant, and if so,what was the dose (mute,concentration,duration,and frequency)?. 2.What is known about the toxicity of that chemical?. (e.g. ,What specific adverse effects have been associated with exposures to that toxicant.? How long does it take for symptoms to develop.'? What dose is required.'? The analyzing process of general causation is included in our question 2. ) 3. Did the symptoms claimed by this individual appear in a manner and time sequence that is consistent with what is known about the toxicity of the chemical.? 4. When exposure to the chemical ceased, did the symptoms get better or disappear in a manner and time sequence that is consistent with the known toxicology.'? 5. What other conditions or factors might have caused this symptom, and are they relevant to this case.'? By reviewing the available information relative to these five questions, the testifying expert helps the judge and jury decide whether the plaintiff's injury was, or was not caused by his exposure to a chemical toxicant.     

Safe addition of vitamins and minerals to foods: setting maximum levels for fortification in the Netherlands

Background In 2004, the European Court of Justice decided that the prohibition of fortification with vitamin A, vitamin D, folic acid, selenium, copper, and zinc in the Netherlands conflicts with the principle of free movement of goods in the European Union. This decision led to a change in the Dutch policy, resulting in a more flexible handling of requests for exemption from this prohibition to fortify. Therefore, an investigation was proposed in which it would be determined whether a general exemption could be granted for food fortification with a certain maximum safe amount per micronutrient. Aim of the study To develop a risk assessment model to estimate maximum safe fortification levels (MSFLs) of vitamins and minerals to foods on the Dutch market, and to evaluate these levels to derive allowed fortification levels (AFLs), which can be used for a general exemption. Methods We developed a risk assessment model to estimate MSFLs of vitamins and minerals to foods on the basis of existing models. We used European tolerable upper intake levels in combination with national food consumption data to estimate MSFLs for fortification of foods for several age groups. Upon extensive stakeholder dialogue, the risk manager considered these estimated MSFLs and the final AFLs for a general exemption were set. Results For folic acid, vitamin A, and vitamin D, the MSFLs were calculated in the risk-assessment model. Children up to 6-years old were the group most sensitive to folic acid fortification, and they had an MSFL of 0 μg/100 kcal, but following a risk management evaluation, this was upgraded to an AFL of 100 μg/100 kcal. The MSFL for vitamin D was 3.0 μg/100 kcal (children 4–10 years old), and the risk manager increased this to an AFL of 4.5 μg/100 kcal. Children up to 10 years old, men, and postmenopausal women were the groups most sensitive to vitamin A fortification (MSFL = 0 μg/100 kcal). Because these groups represent a large part of the population and because of the seriously harmful effects of excessive vitamin A, the risk manager did not allow a general exemption. Conclusions The combination of a risk assessment model and risk manager evaluation led to the setting of AFLs for general exemption of fortification with folic acid and vitamin D. This model is also applicable for other micronutrients, for which an UL is derived, and in other countries.     

江苏省海门市1993-2006年肝癌死亡率时间趋势分析

Objective To predict the trend of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality and investigate the features of its mortality including age, period, and birth cohort in males living in Haimen city of Jiangsu province, China. Methods Grey model (GM) was modeled using standardized mortality rate (SMR) of HCC from 1993 to 2006, and was applied to predicting SMR until 2012. Based on the mortality density (MD) for a four-year period, the goodness-of-fit of models and comparisons between models were evaluated so as to obtain the best one among these models including the effects of intercept, age-period-cohort (APC) , age-period (AP), age-cohort (AC),period-cohort(PC), and APC. Both APC full model and the best model were used to estimate effects of age, period, and cohort on HCC mortality. In addition, MD from 2005 to 2012 was predicted by the best model. Results Predictions based on GM (1,1 )showed that SMR was 48.578 per 100 000 population (relative error=-1.267% ) in 2007 year, which declined between 2008 and 2012. The lowest value was 45.578 per 100 000 people (in the 2012 year). The results of fitted models and comparisons between models showed that AP model was the best one (△G2=9.065,AIC=202.544). The curvatures of the effects of the three factors from APC model suggested that significances existed in changes of curvatures of 36.5-40.5 years old- (-0.368) and 64.5-68.5 years old-(-0.489) as well as in the change of 1956-1959 birth cohort (C21949.5. 1967.5=-0.492). The estimation of relative risks for AP model showed that the age effects were upward to 64.5-68.5 years old-, then downward; and that the period effects were found to be declined between 1993 and 2004. Predictions based on AP model suggested the decrease of HCC mortality. Conclusion The slightly decreasing trend of HCC mortality for males might be explained by age, period and a minor birth cohort effects in Haimen of China.     

江苏省海门市1993-2006年肝癌死亡率时间趋势分析

Objective To predict the trend of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality and investigate the features of its mortality including age, period, and birth cohort in males living in Haimen city of Jiangsu province, China. Methods Grey model (GM) was modeled using standardized mortality rate (SMR) of HCC from 1993 to 2006, and was applied to predicting SMR until 2012. Based on the mortality density (MD) for a four-year period, the goodness-of-fit of models and comparisons between models were evaluated so as to obtain the best one among these models including the effects of intercept, age-period-cohort (APC) , age-period (AP), age-cohort (AC),period-cohort(PC), and APC. Both APC full model and the best model were used to estimate effects of age, period, and cohort on HCC mortality. In addition, MD from 2005 to 2012 was predicted by the best model. Results Predictions based on GM (1,1 )showed that SMR was 48.578 per 100 000 population (relative error=-1.267% ) in 2007 year, which declined between 2008 and 2012. The lowest value was 45.578 per 100 000 people (in the 2012 year). The results of fitted models and comparisons between models showed that AP model was the best one (△G2=9.065,AIC=202.544). The curvatures of the effects of the three factors from APC model suggested that significances existed in changes of curvatures of 36.5-40.5 years old- (-0.368) and 64.5-68.5 years old-(-0.489) as well as in the change of 1956-1959 birth cohort (C21949.5. 1967.5=-0.492). The estimation of relative risks for AP model showed that the age effects were upward to 64.5-68.5 years old-, then downward; and that the period effects were found to be declined between 1993 and 2004. Predictions based on AP model suggested the decrease of HCC mortality. Conclusion The slightly decreasing trend of HCC mortality for males might be explained by age, period and a minor birth cohort effects in Haimen of China.     

A Heterogeneous Sampling Strategy to Model Earthquake-Triggered Landslides

Regional modeling of landslide hazards is an essential tool for the assessment and management of risk in mountain environments.Previous studies that have focused on modeling earthquake-triggered landslides report high prediction accuracies.However,it is common to use a validation strategy with an equal number of landslide and non-landslide samples,scattered homogeneously across the study area.Consequently,there are overestimations in the epicenter area,and the spatial pattern of modeled location...     

Economic benefits of day care abortion

Summary Day care provision of therapeutic abortions is simple, safe, effective and cost-efficient compared with inpatient procedures. Yet currently there are very few NHS day care abortions performed when they could quite feasibly constitute 75 per cent of total provision. A change in the form of abortion provision could result in monetary savings, more abortions performed by the NHS, or a reduction in waiting lists and times. A model is described which shows that these economic benefits can be easily estimated at local level. For instance, an area health authority can hope to almost double its NHS abortion provision without an increase in running costs. A typical health district can hope to clear its gynaecological waiting list in 3 years without an increase in inpatient expenditure. The NHS as a whole can hope to save almost ￡2 m per year in running costs whilst maintaining its present abortion provision. Using this approach, district management teams and area health authorities can make policy and resource allocation decisions concerning abortion provision on a more informed basis.     

Characterization of folic acid, 5-methyltetrahydrofolate and synthetic folinic acid in the high-affinity folate transporters: impact on pregnancy and development

Objectives: Folates are B vitamins that are essential for several molecular, cellular, and biological processes, including nucleotide synthesis, methylation, and methionine cycling. The physiological impacts of these processes on health also extend to cell proliferation, folate deficiency anemia, and reduction of the risk of birth defects during pregnancy. The primary objective of this study was to characterize the binding affinities of different folate forms, folic acid (FA), 5-methyltetrahydro...