Risk Factors for Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease in Tanzania, 2001–2006

We developed a model to quantify the effect of factors influencing the spatio‐temporal distribution of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) in Tanzania. The land area of Tanzania was divided into a regular grid of 20 km × 20 km cells and separate grids constructed for each of the 12‐month periods between 2001 and 2006. For each year, a cell was classified as either FMD positive or negative dependent on an outbreak being recorded in any settlement within the cell boundaries. A Bayesian mixed‐effects spatial model was developed to assess the association between the risk of FMD occurrence and distance to main roads, railway lines, wildlife parks, international borders and cattle density. Increases in the distance to main roads decreased the risk of FMD every year from 2001 to 2006 (ORs ranged from 0.43 to 0.97). Increases in the distance to railway lines and international borders were, in general, associated with a decreased risk of FMD (ORs ranged from 0.85 to 0.99). Increases in the distance from a national park decreased the risk of FMD in 2001 (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.68–0.93) but had the opposite effect in 2004 (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01–1.12). Cattle population density was, in general, positively associated with the risk of FMD (ORs ranged from 1.01 to 1.30). The spatial distribution of high‐risk areas was variable and corresponded to endemic (2001, 2002 and 2005) and epidemic (2003, 2004 and 2006) phases. Roads played a dominant role in both epidemiological situations; we hypothesize that roads are the main driver of FMD expansion in Tanzania. Our results suggest that FMD occurrence in Tanzania is more related to animal movement and human activity via communication networks than transboundary movements or contact with wildlife.     

Molecular Characterisation of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Viruses from Pakistan, 2005–2008

Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD), an economically important disease of cloven‐hoofed animals, is endemic in Pakistan where three virus serotypes are present (O, A and Asia 1). Fifty‐eight clinical samples collected between 2005 and 2008 from animals with suspected FMD in various locations in Pakistan were subjected to virus isolation on primary cell culture, antigen ELISA and real‐time RT‐PCR (rRT‐PCR). Viruses were isolated from 32 of these samples and identified as FMDV type O (n = 31) or type A (n = 1). Foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome was detected in a further 11 samples by real‐time RT‐PCR. Phylogenetic analyses of the VP1 nucleotide sequences showed that all of the type O viruses belonged to the MIDDLE EAST–SOUTH ASIA topotype with the majority belonging to the PanAsia‐2 lineage; a single example of the older PanAsia lineage was identified. The single FMDV type A virus belonged to the ASIA topotype, but did not cluster with known strains that are currently circulating (such as Iran‐05) and was not closely related to other type A viruses from the region. These findings demonstrate the widespread distribution of O‐PanAsia‐2 in Pakistan and the presence of undisclosed novel type A lineages in the region.     

Antibodies Against Foot‐and‐mouth Disease (FMD) Virus in African Buffalos (Syncerus caffer) in Selected National Parks in Uganda (2001–2003)

In East Africa, the foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) isolates have over time included serotypes O, A, C, Southern African Territories (SAT) 1 and SAT 2, mainly from livestock. SAT 3 has only been isolated in a few cases and only in African buffalos (Syncerus caffer). To investigate the presence of antibodies against FMDV serotypes in wildlife in Uganda, serological studies were performed on buffalo serum samples collected between 2001 and 2003. Thirty‐eight samples from African buffalos collected from Lake Mburo, Kidepo Valley, Murchison Falls and Queen Elizabeth National Parks were screened using Ceditest^® FMDV NS to detect antibodies against FMDV non‐structural proteins (NSP). The seroprevalence of antibodies against non‐structural proteins was 74%. To characterize FMDV antibodies, samples were selected and titrated using serotype‐specific solid phase blocking enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISAs). High titres of antibodies (≥1 : 160) against FMDV serotypes SAT 1, SAT 2 and SAT 3 were identified. This study suggests that African buffalos in the different national parks in Uganda may play an important role in the epidemiology of SAT serotypes of FMDV.     

Epidemiological Patterns of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Worldwide

Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease (FMD) is a clinical syndrome in animals due to FMD virus that exists in seven serotypes, whereby recovery from one sero‐type does not confer immunity against the other six. So when considering intervention strategies in endemic settings, it is important to take account of the characteristics of the different serotypes in different ecological systems. FMD serotypes are not uniformly distributed in the regions of the world where the disease still occurs. For example, the cumulative incidence of FMD serotypes show that six of the seven serotypes of FMD (O, A, C, SAT‐1, SAT‐2, SAT‐3) have occurred in Africa, while Asia contends with four sero‐types (O, A, C, Asia‐1), and South America with only three (O, A, C). Periodically there have been incursions of Types SAT‐1 and SAT‐2 from Africa into the Middle East. This paper describes the global dynamics for the seven sero‐types and attempts to define FMD epidemiological clusters in the different regions of the world. These have been described on a continent by continent basis. The review has reaffirmed that the movement of infected animals is the most important factor in the spread of FMD within the endemically infected regions. It also shows that the eco‐system based approach for defining the epidemiological patterns of FMD in endemic, which was originally described in South America, can apply readily to other parts of the world. It is proposed that any coordinated regional or global strategy for FMD control should be based on a sound epidemiological assessment of the incidence and distribution of FMD, identifying risk sources as either primary or secondary endemic eco‐systems.     

Challenges for Serology‐Based Characterization of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Endemic Areas; Identification of Two Separate Lineages of Serotype O FMDV in Uganda in 2011

Control of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) in Uganda by ring vaccination largely depends on costly trivalent vaccines, and use of monovalent vaccines could improve the cost effectiveness. This, however, requires application of highly specific diagnostic tests. This study investigated outbreaks of FMD in seven Ugandan districts, during 2011, using the PrioCHECK^® FMDV NS ELISA, solid‐phase blocking ELISAs (SPBEs) and virus neutralization tests (VNTs), together with virological analyses for characterization of the responsible viruses. Two hundred and eighteen (218) cattle and 23 goat sera as well as 82 oropharyngeal fluid/epithelial tissue samples were collected. Some 50% of the cattle and 17% of the goat sera were positive by the PrioCHECK^® FMDV NS ELISA, while SPBEs identified titres ≥80 for antibodies against serotype O FMD virus (FMDV) in 51% of the anti‐NSP positive cattle sera. However, 35% of the anti‐NSP positive cattle sera had SPBE titres ≥80 against multiple serotypes, primarily against serotypes O, SAT 1 and SAT 3. Comparison of SPBEs and VNTs for the detection of antibodies against serotypes O, SAT 1 and SAT 3 in 72 NSP positive cattle sera showed comparable results against serotype O (P = 0.181), while VNTs detected significantly fewer samples positive for antibodies against SAT 1 and SAT 3 than the SPBEs (P < 0.001). Detection of antibodies against serotype O was consistent with the isolation of serotype O FMDVs from 13 samples. Four of these viruses were sequenced and belonged to two distinct lineages within the East Africa‐2 (EA‐2) topotype, each differing from the currently used vaccine strain (EA‐1 topotype). The relationships of these lineages to other serotype O viruses in the Eastern Africa region are discussed. To enhance the control of FMD in Uganda, there is need to improve the specificity of the SAT‐SPBEs, perform vaccine matching and implement improved regional FMD control.     

Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006

Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Tanzania, with outbreaks occurring almost each year in different parts of the country. There is now a strong political desire to control animal diseases as part of national poverty alleviation strategies. However, FMD control requires improving the current knowledge on the disease dynamics and factors related to FMD occurrence so control measures can be implemented more efficiently. The objectives of this study were to describe the FMD dynamics in Tanzania from 2001 to 2006 and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of transmission. Extraction maps, the space‐time K‐function and space‐time permutation models based on scan statistics were calculated for each year to evaluate the spatial distribution, the spatiotemporal interaction and the spatiotemporal clustering of FMD‐affected villages. From 2001 to 2006, 878 FMD outbreaks were reported in 605 different villages of 5815 populated places included in the database. The spatial distribution of FMD outbreaks was concentrated along the Tanzania‐Kenya, Tanzania‐Zambia borders, and the Kagera basin bordering Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania. The spatiotemporal interaction among FMD‐affected villages was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.01) and 12 local spatiotemporal clusters were detected; however, the extent and intensity varied across the study period. Dividing the country in zones according to their epidemiological status will allow improving the control of FMD and delimiting potential FMD‐free areas.     

Review: Evaluation of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis

An outbreak of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer‐reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide.     

Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Vaccination in South Sudan: Benefit–Cost Analysis and Livelihoods Impact

A benefit–cost analysis of vaccination for foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) was conducted in an area of South Sudan, which due to chronic conflict, had been subject to large‐scale humanitarian assistance for many years. The study used participatory epidemiology (PE) methods to estimate the prevalence and mortality of acute and chronic FMD in different age groups of cattle, and the reduction in milk off‐take in cows affected by FMD. The benefit–cost of FMD vaccination was 11.5. Losses due to the chronic form of FMD accounted for 28.2% of total FMD losses, indicating that future benefit–cost analyses for FMD control in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Africa need to consider losses caused by chronic disease. Participatory epidemiological methods were also used to assess the importance of milk in the diet of Nuer agropastoralists, and seasonal variations in diet in relation to cattle movements and FMD outbreaks. Marked seasonal variation in diet included a ‘hunger gap’ period during which households were highly dependent on milk as their main source of food. Outbreaks of FMD occurred immediately before this period of milk dependency, with chronic losses extending through this period and affecting human food security. The paper discusses the need and feasibility of mass vaccination and strategic vaccination for FMD in South Sudan. The paper also discusses the value of combining conventional benefit–cost analysis with livelihoods analysis to inform disease control efforts and funding commitments in humanitarian contexts.     

Data‐Driven Models of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Dynamics: A Review

Foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDV) threatens animal health and leads to considerable economic losses worldwide. Progress towards minimizing both veterinary and financial impact of the disease will be made with targeted disease control policies. To move towards targeted control, specific targets and detailed control strategies must be defined. One approach for identifying targets is to use mathematical and simulation models quantified with accurate and fine‐scale data to design and evaluate alternative control policies. Nevertheless, published models of FMDV vary in modelling techniques and resolution of data incorporated. In order to determine which models and data sources contain enough detail to represent realistic control policy alternatives, we performed a systematic literature review of all FMDV dynamical models that use host data, disease data or both data types. For the purpose of evaluating modelling methodology, we classified models by control strategy represented, resolution of models and data, and location modelled. We found that modelling methodology has been well developed to the point where multiple methods are available to represent detailed and contact‐specific transmission and targeted control. However, detailed host and disease data needed to quantify these models are only available from a few outbreaks. To address existing challenges in data collection, novel data sources should be considered and integrated into models of FMDV transmission and control. We suggest modelling multiple endemic areas to advance local control and global control and better understand FMDV transmission dynamics. With incorporation of additional data, models can assist with both the design of targeted control and identification of transmission drivers across geographic boundaries.     

Current Status and Future Prospects to Achieve Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Eradication in South America

South America has a favourable position with respect to foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) compared with other FMD‐affected regions due to the elimination of endemic clinical presentation of the disease. South America has reached the final stage of control and aims to eradicate the disease in the region under the provisions of the Hemispheric Program for the Eradication of FMD 2011–2020 (PHEFA). This programme aims at bringing eradication to completion, thereby eliminating the pool of foot‐and‐mouth disease genotypes active in South America. This plan includes a regional political agreement that provides strategies and technical guidelines for the eradication of foot‐and‐mouth disease from South America. It incorporates knowledge and experience regarding the disease's history and its connection with the different production systems, animal movement and trade. The Pan American Foot and Mouth Disease Center has led the control and eradication programmes, providing the framework for designing national and subregional programmes that have led to significant progress in controlling the disease in South America. The current situation is the result of several factors, including the proper implementation of a national control programmes, good veterinary infrastructure in most countries and public–private participation in the process of eradicating the disease. Notwithstanding the favourable health status, there are significant challenges for the goal of eradication. At this stage, South American countries should enhance their surveillance strategies particularly through the use of target or risk‐based surveys that contribute to increase the degree of sensitivity in the search for viral circulation in the context of absence of clinical occurrence of FMD.     

Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Seroprevalence in Cattle in Eritrea

Information about seroprevalence of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) and virus serotypes in Eritrea is unavailable, but is very important as it may guide the choice of intervention measures including vaccination to be implemented. We carried out a cross‐sectional study from February to June 2011 in Eritrea with a two‐stage cluster design, sampling cattle in 155 villages with the objective of determining the seroprevalence of FMD in four administrative regions of the country. We analysed cattle sera (n = 2429) for FMD virus antibodies using the non‐structural ELISA (NS ELISA) and virus neutralization test (VNT). The overall seroprevalence was 26% and 30% for the NS ELISA and VNT, respectively. FMD virus serotypes O (14%) and A (11%) were the most prevalent. Gash Barka showed the highest (39%) seroprevalence both in NS ELISA and VNT compared to the other three administrative regions. Strategic FMD virus vaccination with type O and A (matching circulating strains) in combination of zoo‐sanitary measures would be the best control option for Eritrea which could be started in areas where the disease is less endemic.     

Epidemiological Analysis,Serological Prevalence and Genotypic Analysis of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease in Nigeria 2008–2009

The epidemiological situation of foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDV) is uncertain in Nigeria, where the disease is endemic, and the majority of outbreaks are unreported. Control measures for FMD in Nigeria are not being implemented due to the absence of locally produced vaccines and an official ban on vaccine importation. This study summarizes the findings of a 3‐year study aimed at quantifying the seroprevalence of FMD, its distribution in susceptible species and the genetic diversity of FMDV isolated from the Plateau State of Nigeria. A 29% FMD prevalence was estimated using 3ABC enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (3ABC ELISA). Farms with suspected FMD nearby, with contact with wildlife, that used drugs or FMD vaccines or with >100 animals, and animals of large ruminant species and in pastures other than nomadic grazing were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with FMD. Antibodies against five FMDV serotypes, (A, O, SAT1, SAT2 and SAT3) were detected by the virus neutralization test (VNT) at various titres (<100–>800) from all tested sera from most parts of the region. This is probably the first report of the presence of FMDV SAT3 in Nigeria. Further studies to investigate the potential probable presence and prevalence of SAT 3 virus in Nigeria are required. Tissue samples collected from clinical animals were positive for FMDV. Virus isolates were sequenced and confirmed as serotype A. All of the isolates showed marked genetic homogeneity with >99% genetic identity in the VP1 region and were most closely related to a previously described virus collected from Cameroon in 2000. This study provides knowledge on the epidemiological situation of FMD in Plateau State, Nigeria, and will probably help to develop effective control and preventive strategies for the disease in Nigeria and other countries in the West African subregion.     

Epidemiology of the 2010 Outbreak of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease in Mongolia

Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) occurred in five provinces and 24 counties as part of the FMD incursion into Mongolia during 2010. The first detection occurred on 21 April 2010 (confirmed 26 April 2010) with the last detection occurring approximately 8 months later on 13 December 2010. The number of livestock detected in the spring phase of the outbreak was 323 cattle and in the summer phase was 13 485 sheep, 6748 cattle, 5692 goats and 10 camels (total livestock summer phase = 25 935; for spring and summer phases combined = 26 258). Infection of livestock was confirmed by PCR for each affected county but not necessarily for every outbreak cluster involving more than one herder. It is likely that the summer phase of the outbreak was a continuation of the spring event. In the summer phase, the spatio‐temporal pattern of spread suggested an extension of infection from the main cluster in the Sukhbaatar county. There was also a number of long‐distance clusters established. The relative importance of spread by three potential pathways of gazelle, livestock, animal product and fomite movements has not been determined and will require further study. The estimated dissemination ratio (EDR) did not provide evidence of high rate of transmission of infection between herders; however, the data are limited by the quality of surveillance and the method of calculation which used the date of detection rather than the date of infection.     

Molecular Characterization of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Virus: Implications for Disease Control in Bangladesh

Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Bangladesh, and to implement an effective FMD control programme, it is essential to understand the complex epidemiology of the disease. Here, we report on the characterization of FMD virus (FMDV) recovered from FMD outbreaks in Bangladesh in late 2009. All isolated viruses belonged to the FMDV serotype O. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that all isolates belonged to the Middle East–South Asia (ME–SA) topotype, but fell into two distinct sublineages, one named Ind‐2001 (the other has not been named). Within both sublineages, the 2009 Bangladesh isolates were most closely related to viruses from Nepal collected during 2008 and 2009. Additionally, both sublineages contained older viruses from India collected in 2000 and 2001. In South Asia, there is extensive cross‐border cattle movement from Nepal and India to Bangladesh. Both these findings have implications for the control of FMD in Bangladesh. Because of the porous borders, a regional FMD control strategy should be developed. Further, animal identification and monitoring animal movements are necessary to identify the cross‐border movements and market chain interactions of ruminants, leading to improved border and movement controls. Additionally, a vaccination strategy should be developed with the initial objective of protecting small‐scale dairy herds from disease. For any successful FMD control programme, long‐term Government commitment and adequate resources are necessary. A sustainable programme will also need farmer education, commitment and financial contributions.