External validation of two diabetes risk scores in a young UK South Asian population

Aims

To externally validate the Leicester Practice Risk Score (LPRS) and the Leicester Risk Assessment score (LRAS) in a young South Asian population.

Methods

South Asian participants aged 25–39 years inclusive from a population based screening study were included. The risk scores were calculated and compared to the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) or T2DM and Impaired Glucose Regulation (IGR, including IFG and IGT) using either an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) or a HbA1c (≤48 mmol/mol/6.5% and ≤42 mmol/mol/6.0% respectively). Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated.

Results

Of the 331 participants 8 (2.4%) had undiagnosed T2DM and 30 (9.1%) had IGR using an OGTT, 11 (3.4%) and 39 (12.1%) were found using HbA1c. Using the LPRS to detect T2DM on an OGTT gives an area under the ROC curve of 0.91 (95% CI 0.86, 0.97), including those with IGR gives an ROC of 0.72 (0.62–0.81), these values are 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) and 0.68 (0.60, 0.77) when using an HbA1c to define outcome. Acceptable levels of calibration were seen. Similar results are found for the LRAS.

Conclusions

These scores can be used to identify those with undiagnosed T2DM and/or IGR in a young South Asian population. This is the first study to externally validate scores developed for prevalent undiagnosed disease in this age group using both OGTT and HbA1c.     

Review: Type 2 diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean: Regional and country comparison on prevalence,trends, costs and expanded prevention

PurposeTo present an overview of type 2 diabetes status in Latin America and the Caribbean region.MethodsThe data were collected from the International Diabetes Federation Atlas and other available published sources where we identified the prevalence in Latin America and the Caribbean, the trends by regions, and sex. Also, we summarized the type 2 diabetes direct and indirect costs, and the current preventative programs and policies available for each region.ResultsLatin America and the Caribbean has one of the fastest-growing prevalence of type 2 diabetes, in particular the Caribbean region. Costs are relatively high in Central American countries and the Caribbean Islands. Currently, type 2 diabetes prevention, diagnosis, and management are insufficient in Latin America and the Caribbean and they do not offer a multidisciplinary integrative approach.ConclusionEffective and preventive multidisciplinary policies should be implemented in Latin America and the Caribbean to decrease the high burden of type 2 diabetes.     

Cardiometabolic risk factors in Venezuela. The EVESCAM study: a national cross-sectional survey in adults

BackgroundNo previous study in Venezuela and few in the Region of the Americas have reported national cardiometabolic health data. Objectives: To determine the prevalence and distribution of cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRF) in adults of Venezuela.MethodsA population-based, cross-sectional, and randomized cluster sampling national study was designed to recruit 4454 adults with 20 years or older from the eight regions of the country from July 2014 to January 2017. Sociodemographic, clinical, physical activity, nutritional, and psychological questionnaires; anthropometrics, blood pressure, and biochemical measurements were obtained. The results were weighted by gender, age, and regions.ResultsData from 3414 participants (77% of recruited), 52.2% female, mean age of 41.2 ± 15.8 years, were analyzed. CMRF adjusted-prevalence were: diabetes (12.3%), prediabetes (34.9%), hypertension (34.1%), obesity (24.6%), overweight (34.4%), abdominal obesity (47.6%), underweight (4.4%), hypercholesterolemia (19.8%), hypertriglyceridemia (22.7%), low HDL-cholesterol (63.2%), high LDL-c (20.5%), daily consumption of fruits (20.9%) and vegetables (30.0%), insufficient physical activity (35.2%), anxiety (14.6%) and depression (3.2%) symptoms, current smoker (11.7%), and high (≥ 20%) 10-year fatal cardiovascular risk (14.0%). CMRF prevalence varied according to gender, age and region of residence.ConclusionsCardiometabolic risk factors are highly prevalent in Venezuelan adults. This situation can be affected by the severe socio-economic crisis in the country. The joint action of different stakeholders to implement public health strategies for the prevention and treatment of these risk factors in Venezuela is urgently needed.     

Nomogram model and risk score to predict 5-year risk of progression from prediabetes to diabetes in Chinese adults: Development and validation of a novel model

Aim

To develop a personalized nomogram and risk score to predict the 5-year risk of diabetes among Chinese adults with prediabetes.

Methods

There were 26 018 participants with prediabetes at baseline in this retrospective cohort study. We randomly stratified participants into two cohorts for training (n = 12 947) and validation (n = 13 071). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model was applied to select the most significant variables among candidate variables. And we further established a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model to screen out the risk factors based on the predictors chosen by the LASSO model. We presented the model with a nomogram. The model's discrimination, clinical use and calibration were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve and calibration analysis. The associated risk factors were also categorized according to clinical cut-points or tertials to create the diabetes risk score model. Based on the total score, we divided it into four risk categories: low, middle, high and extremely high. We also evaluated our diabetes risk score model's performance.

Results

We developed a simple nomogram and risk score that predicts the risk of prediabetes by using the variables age, triglyceride, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, alanine aminotransferase, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and family history of diabetes. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram was 0.8146 (95% CI 0.8035-0.8258) and 0.8147 (95% CI 0.8035-0.8259) for the training and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve showed a perfect fit between predicted and observed diabetes risks at 5 years. Decision curve analysis presented the clinical use of the nomogram, and there was a wide range of alternative threshold probability spectrums. A total risk score of 0 to 2.5, 3 to 4.5, 5 to 7.5 and 8 to 13.5 is associated with low, middle, high and extremely high diabetes risk status, respectively.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a personalized prediction nomogram and risk score for 5-year diabetes risk among Chinese adults with prediabetes, identifying individuals at a high risk of developing diabetes. Doctors and other healthcare professionals can easily and quickly use our diabetes score model to assess the diabetes risk status in patients with prediabetes. In addition, the nomogram model and risk score we developed need to be validated in a prospective cohort study.     

Assessment of the risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes and prediabetes mellitus: A national survey in Vietnam

This study aims to estimating the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and prediabetes among adult from 30 to 69 years old and assess the association of risk factor with the conditions. A total of 5244 aged 30 to 69 years old were participated in this cross-sectional study, using nationally representative sampling frame. All participants were taking blood sample to measure fasting blood glucose level and 2-hour postload oral glucose tolerance test by National Hospital of Endocrinology, Vietnam. Multinomial logistic regressions with baseline-category logit models were conducted to identify factors associated with diabetes and prediabetes among respondents. The prediabetes prevalence was in 17.9% and diabetes in 7.3%. Patients who were male (reference group vs female OR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.97), in the 50 to 59 years old group (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.28, 2.00), have hypertension and WHR risk have higher prevalence to have prediabetes (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.53; OR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.70, respectively). Male patients (reference group vs female OR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.84), patients who were in 40 to 49; 50 to 59; 60 to 69 years old, those who were housewife (OR = 2.17; 95% CI: 1.43, 3.28; OR = 2.85; 95% CI: 1.91, 4.27; OR = 3.12; 95% CI: 2.08, 4.69; OR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.40, respectively). Diabetes have significant associated with participants have hypertension (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.72, 2.70). The common factor directly related to prediabetes and diabetes in both genders is age. Other factors directly associated with prediabetes and diabetes include BMI, WHR, hypertension, educational level, and job.     

Development and validation of risk models to predict the 7‐year risk of type 2 diabetes: The Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

Aims/Introduction

We previously developed a 3‐year diabetes risk score in the working population. The objective of the present study was to develop and validate flexible risk models that can predict the risk of diabetes for any arbitrary time‐point during 7 years.

Materials and Methods

The participants were 46,198 Japanese employees aged 30–59 years, without diabetes at baseline and with a maximum follow‐up period of 8 years. Incident diabetes was defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria. With routine health checkup data (age, sex, abdominal obesity, body mass index, smoking status, hypertension status, dyslipidemia, glycated hemoglobin and fasting plasma glucose), we developed non‐invasive and invasive risk models based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model among a random two‐thirds of the participants, and used another one‐third for validation.

Results

The range of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased from 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.72–0.74) for the non‐invasive prediction model to 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.89–0.90) for the invasive prediction model containing dyslipidemia, glycated hemoglobin and fasting plasma glucose. The invasive models showed improved integrated discrimination and reclassification performance, as compared with the non‐invasive model. Calibration appeared good between the predicted and observed risks. These models performed well in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

The present non‐invasive and invasive models for the prediction of diabetes risk up to 7 years showed fair and excellent performance, respectively. The invasive models can be used to identify high‐risk individuals, who would benefit greatly from lifestyle modification for the prevention or delay of diabetes.     

Optimal waist circumference cutoff values to predict cardiometabolic alterations in a Venezuela national representative sample. The EVESCAM study

Objective:Waist circumference (WC) value reflects abdominal adiposity, but the amount abdominal fat that is associated to cardiometabolic risk factors varies among ethnicities. Determination of metabolic abnormalities has not undergone a WC adaptation process in Venezuela. The aim of the study was (1) to determine the optimal WC cutoff value associated with ≥2 cardiometabolic alterations and (2) incorporating this new WC cutoff, to determine the prevalence of abdominal obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors related in Venezuela.Methods:The study was national population-based, cross-sectional, and randomized sample, from 2014 to 2017. To assess performance of WC for identifying cardiometabolic alterations, receiver operating characteristics curves, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratios were calculated.Results:Three thousand three hundred eighty-seven adults were evaluated with mean age of 41.2 ± 15.8 years. Using the best tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity, WC cutoffs of 90 cm in men (sensitivity = 72.4% and specificity = 66.1%) and 86 cm in women (sensitivity = 76.2% and specificity = 61.4%) were optimal for aggregation of ≥2 cardiometabolic alterations. AUC was 0.75 in men and 0.73 in women using these new cutoffs. Prevalence of abdominal obesity and metabolic syndrome was 59.6% (95 CI; 57.5-61.7) and 47.6% (95 CI; 45.2-50.0), respectively. Cardiometabolic risk factors were associated with being men, higher age, adiposity, and living in northern or western regions.Conclusion:The optimal WC values associated with cardiometabolic alterations were 90 cm in men and 86 cm in women. More than half of the Venezuelan population had abdominal obesity incorporating this new WC cutoff.Key words: Abdominal obesity, Adiposity, Metabolic syndrome, Venezuela, Waist circumference     

Serum uric acid levels and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective study

Purpose

To evaluate the impact of serum uric acid levels on the future risk of developing type 2 diabetes independent of other factors.

Methods

We used prospective data from the Framingham Heart Study original (n = 4883) and offspring (n = 4292) cohorts to examine the association between serum uric acid levels and the incidence of diabetes. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the relative risk of incident diabetes adjusting for age, sex, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking, hypertension, body mass index, and blood levels of glucose, cholesterol, creatinine, and triglycerides.

Results

We identified 641 incident cases of diabetes in the original cohort and 497 cases in the offspring cohort. The incidence rates of diabetes per 1000 person-years for serum uric acid levels <5.0, 5.0-5.9, 6.0-6.9, 7.0-7.9 and ≥8.0 mg/dL were 3.3, 6.1, 8.7, 11.5, and 15.9, respectively, in the original cohort; and 2.9, 5.0, 6.6, 8.7, and 10.9, respectively, in the offspring cohort (P-values for trends <.001). Multivariable relative risks per mg/dL increase in serum uric acid levels were 1.20 (95% confidence interval; 1.11-1.28) for the original cohort and 1.15 (95% confidence interval; 1.06-1.23) for the offspring cohort.

Conclusions

These prospective data from 2 generations of the Framingham Heart Study provide evidence that individuals with higher serum uric acid; including younger adults, are at a higher future risk of type 2 diabetes independent of other known risk factors. These data expand on cross-sectional associations between hyperuricemia and the metabolic syndrome, and extend the link to the future risk of type 2 diabetes.     

The risk of mortality among people with type 2 diabetes in Latin America: A systematic review and meta‐analysis of population‐based cohort studies

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with a high mortality risk, although the magnitude of this association remains unknown in Latin America (LA). We aimed to assess the strength of the association between T2DM and all‐cause and cause‐specific mortality in population‐based cohort studies in LA. Systematic review and meta‐analysis: inclusion criteria were (1) men and women 18 years old and above with T2DM; (2) study outcomes all‐cause and/or cause‐specific mortality; and (3) using people without T2DM as comparison group. Five databases (Scopus, Medline, Embase, Global Health, and LILACS) were searched. Risk of bias was evaluated with the ROBINS‐I criteria. Initially, there were 979 identified studies, of which 17 were selected for qualitative synthesis; 14 were included in the meta‐analysis (N = 416 821). Self‐reported T2DM showed a pooled relative risk (RR) of 2.49 for all‐causes mortality (I‐squared [I²] = 85.7%, p < 0.001; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.96‐3.15). T2DM based on a composite definition was associated with a 2.26‐fold higher all‐cause mortality (I² = 93.9%, p < 0.001; 95% CI, 1.36‐3.74). The pooled risk estimates were similar between men and women, although higher at younger ages. The pooled RR for cardiovascular mortality was 2.76 (I² = 59.2%; p < 0.061; 95% CI, 1.99‐3.82) and for renal mortality 15.85 (I² = 0.00%; p < 0.645; 95% CI, 9.82‐25.57). Using available population‐based cohort studies, this work has identified and estimated the strength of the association between T2DM and mortality in LA. The higher mortality risk compared with high‐income countries deserves close attention from health policies makers and clinicians to improve diabetes care and control hence preventing complications and delaying death.     

Comparing diabetes due to diseases of the exocrine pancreas to type 1 and type 2 diabetes using propensity score matching

ObjectiveTo estimate the prevalence of diabetes due to diseases of the exocrine pancreas (DEP) using data of the multicentre diabetes patient follow-up registry. Moreover, we aimed at comparing individuals with diabetes due to DEP to individuals with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.MethodsIndividuals with DEP, type 1 or type 2 diabetes ≥18 years of age were studied. We aggregated the most recent treatment year per patient and used propensity scores to match diabetes due to DEP to type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Matching was conducted one-to-one with sex, age, diabetes duration, migration background and the German index of socioeconomic deprivation as covariates.ResultsWe identified 7,093 (1.6%) individuals with diabetes due to DEP. In the matched cohort DEP-type 1 diabetes we observed a similar daily insulin dose (0.62 IU/kg (95% confidence interval:0.60–0.63), 0.60 IU/kg (0.58–0.62)) and significant differences regarding microvascular (41.0% (39.7–42.2), 45.3% (44.0–46.6)), and macrovascular disease (16.6% (15.7–17.6), 14.7% (13.8–15.6)). HbA1c (8.2% (8.1–8.3), 7.9% (7.8–8.0)), daily insulin dose (0.60 IU/kg (0.58–0.62), 0.56 IU/kg (0.54–0.58)) and event rates of severe hypoglycemia (23.9 events/100 PY (21.4–26.8), (9.5 events/100 PY (8.0–11.2)) were significantly higher in individuals with diabetes due to DEP compared to type 2 diabetes.ConclusionsUsing registry data, rare diabetes types such as diabetes due to DEP can be studied with a significant sample size. Our study identified differences and similarities between adult individuals with DEP related diabetes and type 1 or type 2 diabetes.     

Prevalence and risk factors for stroke in Type 2 diabetic patients in Taiwan: a cross-sectional survey of a national sample by telephone interview.

AIMS: To determine the prevalence and risk factors for stroke in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the age-specific prevalence odds ratios (POR) in comparison with the general population in Taiwan. METHODS: A total of 16 994 T2DM patients were randomly selected for telephone interview from a group covered by the National Health Insurance programme. Lifetime prevalence of stroke was calculated and various risk factors were analysed. Age-specific POR was calculated using previously reported prevalence of stroke in the general population from a nationwide survey across Taiwan. Standardized prevalence and POR were also calculated using the 2000-2025 population of the World Health Organization. RESULTS: A total of 12 531 cases (73.7%) were successfully interviewed. Stroke prevalence was 7.5%. In multivariate logistic regression, independent predictors were: increasing age, male gender, lower body mass index, ex-smokers, hyperlipidaemia, systolic pressure (or diastolic pressure when systolic pressure was not adjusted), education level below high school, and living in eastern or southern Taiwan. When compared with the general population, POR for stroke in the age groups < 45, 45-54, 55-64 and > or = 65 years were 82.29 (9.60, 705.57), 5.43 (2.33, 12.68), 3.73 (2.20, 6.33) and 2.14 (1.59, 2.89), respectively. The age-standardized prevalence of stroke was 2.3% in the diabetic patients and 0.6% in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke prevalence in Taiwanese T2DM is 7.5%. Diabetic patients have a higher risk of stroke than the general population, but the relative risk attenuates with age. Besides conventional atherosclerotic risk factors, stroke patients in Taiwan are characterized by lower body mass index, lower education level and residence in southern or eastern Taiwan. The negative association between body mass index and stroke in Taiwanese T2DM is in contrast to the generally accepted concept that obesity is a major risk factor as seen in most western countries.     

Triglyceride-glucose index predicts independently type 2 diabetes mellitus risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

ObjectiveOur objective was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies evaluating the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index as a tool for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction in adults and older adults.MethodsStudies were identified in PubMed, Cochrane, Scopus, and Lilacs. Studies with cohort design, which evaluated the T2D incidence through the hazard ratio (HR) or relative risk (RR) or odds ratio values were included. Were included both studies that evaluated the incidence of T2D from tertiles, quartiles, quintiles, or single TyG index values. First, a meta-analysis only for studies that reported data in HR values was performed. Additionally, given the different association measurements used, the number of T2D cases, non-T2D cases, and the total number of participants were extracted from exposed and non-exposed groups when available. Then the risk ratio was calculated. A meta-analysis using the inverse variance method and the random-effects model was performed. Heterogeneity was assessed by I² statistics and by inspecting funnel plots.ResultsThirteen cohort studies with a total of 70,380 subjects, both sexes, adults, and older adults were included in the meta-analysis. Ten studies showed a significant association of the TyG index with T2D risk through HR estimative (overall HR: 2.44, 95% CI: 2.17–2.76). After estimating RR for nine studies, we also observed a significant association of the TyG index with T2D risk (RR: 3.12, 95 CI: 2.31–4.21). For all analyses, high heterogeneity was verified by I² and visual inspection of funnel plots.ConclusionsTyG index has a positive and significant association with T2D risk, suggesting that the TyG index may become an applicable tool to identify subjects with T2D risk. However, due to the high heterogeneity observed in overall HR and RR analysis, more studies could be necessary to confirm these results.     

Screening for type 2 diabetes after a diagnosis of gestational diabetes by ethnicity: A retrospective cohort study

AimsTo estimate rates and identify determinants of post-partum glucose screening attendance in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).MethodsRetrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, to identify women diagnosed with GDM between 01/01/2000 and 05/11/2018. Age adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression models.ResultsIn 10,868 women with GDM, with an average follow-up of 5.38 years (95% CI 5.31,5.45), there was an average of 3.79 (95% CI 3.70,3.89) screening episodes per individual, with a mean time to first screening test of 1.22 (95% CI 1.18, 1.25) years. South Asian women had a significantly greater likelihood of being screened compared to White women within the first 5 years post-partum, aOR: 1.89 95% CI (1.20,2.98). A low proportion of women received at least one test per year of follow-up (23.87%). Older age at GDM diagnosis, polycystic ovary syndrome, prescribed medication for GDM, and living in England, were all associated with a greater likelihood of being screened.ConclusionWhile the majority of women with previous GDM receive at least one glucose screening test within the first 5 years post-partum, fewer than a quarter of them receive on average one test per year of follow-up. Developing strategies to motivate more women to attend screening in primary care is essential.     

HLA-DQ beta-chain restriction fragment length polymorphism as a risk marker in Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus: a Finnish family study

Summary Finnish Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetic families were analysed for HLA-DQ beta-chain polymorphism using a short intron-specific probe. A simple hybridization pattern was obtained in which all fragments were associated significantly with Type 1 diabetes. The simultaneous presence of two different risk markers, the allelic 12-kilobase and 4-kilobase fragments were strongly associated with Type 1 diabetes since 50% of the patients had this combination compared with only 2% of the control subjects. The cosegregated 7.5/3.0 kilobase fragments, which were associated with HLA-DR2 and DRw6 were not detected among the diabetic patients but were present in 48% of the control subjects. Our results provide further support for the location of susceptibility determining factors in the HLA-DQ gene area. The clear-cut, simple restriction fragment length polymorphism pattern obtained here, which bears a resemblance to a two allelic system, therefore makes this method applicable for estimating the risk of Type 1 diabetes at the population level.     

The association between gender-related characteristics and type 2 diabetes risk in a multi-ethnic population: The HELIUS study

Background and aimsMen and women have different type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risks, which have been reported across populations of different ethnicity. Where differences in T2DM risk for sex (biological) have been studied, research on gender (socio-cultural) and T2DM risk is lacking. We explored, in a multi-ethnic population, the association of six gender-related characteristics with incident T2DM over 3 years, and the mediation by known risk factors for T2DM.Methods and resultsWe included 9605 women and 7080 men of the multi-ethnic HELIUS study (Amsterdam, the Netherlands). We studied associations between gender-related characteristics and incident T2DM, using Cox regression. After a median of 3.0 years (IQR 2.0; 4.0), 198 (2.1%) women and 137 (1.9%) men developed T2DM. A lower T2DM risk was observed in those not being the primary earner (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.47; 0.93) and a higher desired level of social support (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.44; 0.87). Hours spent on household work, home repairs, type of employment and male- or female-dominated occupation were not associated with T2DM incidence. No evidence for effect modification by biological sex or ethnicity was found. Known risk factors of T2DM did not mediate the observed associations.ConclusionGender-related characteristics, not being the primary earner and a higher desired social support were associated with reduced T2DM risk, and this was not mediated by known risk factors for T2DM.