Validation of a nomogram for predicting disease-specific survival after an R0 resection for gastric carcinoma

BACKGROUND: A statistical model for predicting disease-specific survival in patients with gastric carcinoma, based on a single U.S. institution experience, was tested for validity in a sample of patients treated at different institutions. METHODS: The authors analysed 459 patients from the Dutch Gastric Cancer trial that compared limited (D1) with extended (D2) lymph node dissection. The discrimination ability of the nomogram with respect to 5 and 9-year disease-specific survival probabilities was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. RESULTS: There was considerable heterogeneity of risk within many of the AJCC stages. Calibration plots suggested that predicted probabilities from the nomogram corresponded closely to actual disease-specific survival. The gastric carcinoma nomogram performed well when applied to patients treated in a large number of institutions. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram provided predictions that discriminated better than the AJCC staging system, regardless of the extent of lymph node dissection. Patient counseling and adjuvant therapy decision-making should benefit from use of the nomogram.     

Validation of a postresection pancreatic adenocarcinoma nomogram for disease-specific survival.

PURPOSE: Nomograms are statistically based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. They have shown better individual discrimination than the current TNM staging system in numerous patient tumor models. The pancreatic nomogram combines individual clinicopathologic and operative data to predict disease-specific survival at 1, 2, and 3 years from initial resection. A single US institution database was used to test the validity of the pancreatic adenocarcinoma nomogram established at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The nomogram was created from a prospective pancreatic adenocarcinoma database that included 555 consecutive patients between October 1983 and April 2000. The nomogram was validated by an external patient cohort from a retrospective pancreatic adenocarcinoma database at Massachusetts General Hospital that included 424 consecutive patients between January 1985 and December 2003. RESULTS: Of the 424 patients, 375 had all variables documented. At last follow-up, 99 patients were alive, with a median follow-up time of 27 months (range, 2 to 151 months). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year disease-specific survival rates were 68% (95% CI, 63% to 72%), 39% (95% CI, 34% to 44%), and 27% (95% CI, 23% to 32%), respectively. The nomogram concordance index was 0.62 compared with 0.59 with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage (P = .004). This suggests that the nomogram discriminates disease-specific survival better than the AJCC staging system. CONCLUSION: The pancreatic cancer nomogram provides more accurate survival predictions than the AJCC staging system when applied to an external patient cohort. The nomogram may aid in more accurately counseling patients and in better stratifying patients for clinical trials and molecular tumor analysis.     

Histopathological grading does not affect survival after R0 surgery for gastric cancer.

AIM: It is unclear whether Histopathological Grading (UICC, TNM Classification) affects survival after resection for gastric cancer.METHODS: To investigate the prognostic significance of Histopathological Grading after gastrectomy, 1455 patients who underwent gastric resection for gastric adenocarcinoma were reviewed.RESULTS: The R0 (UICC, R Classification) resection rate was inversely correlated with the grade (86.5% for Grade 1, 79.7% for Grade 2 and 69.2% for Grade 3) and the R1 and R2 resection rates increased with the grade. The Histopathological Grading did not influence survival in the 1119 patients who underwent R0 resection (71.0% for Grade 1, 65.7% for Grade 2 and 66.7% for Grade 3). When multivariate analysis was performed for the 1119 cases undergoing R0 resection, the Histopathological Grading was not a determinant prognostic factor.CONCLUSION: We conclude that the UICC Histopathological Grading affects R0 resection rates, but does not affect survival independently.     

食管癌根治术后放射治疗的价值

目的　评价食管癌根治术后放射治疗的价值。方法　收治 2 6 5例食管癌根治术后放射治疗病人 ,均为鳞癌。 72 8% (193例 )的病人始于术后 8周以内。照射野包括双锁骨上区、纵隔、吻合口及胃左动脉淋巴结区。放疗剂量 4 5～ 5 5Gy。 94 %的病人放疗剂量为 5 0Gy ,放疗采用常规分割照射。结果　 2 6 5例病人总的 1、2、3、4、5年生存率为 81 5 %、6 3 0 %、5 0 9%、4 6 1%、39 5 %。肿瘤外侵阳性病人预后较外侵阴性病人差 (P <0 0 1) ,但肿瘤外侵阳性病人 5年生存率仍达 35 3%。淋巴结阳性病人预后极差 ,5年生存率仅 9% ,与淋巴结阴性的病人相比有显著差异 (P <0 0 0 5 )。本组死亡 139例 ,其中血行转移 5 2例(肺转移 18例、肝转移 14例、骨转移 8例、其它 12例 )占 37 4 % ,纵隔食管瘤床复发 +纵隔淋巴结转移 2 9例占 2 0 9% ,腹腔淋巴结转移 16例占 11 5 %。结论　①除淋巴结阳性病人外 ,食管癌根治术后预防性照射可降低局部区域复发 ,提高远期生存。②对淋巴结阳性病人 ,术后放疗疗效差。③无论肿瘤外侵情况如何 ,食管癌术后放射治疗均有价值 ,但肿瘤外侵阳性病人预后相对较差。④放疗区域应包括肿瘤瘤床和淋巴引流区。⑤术后放疗剂量Dt5 0Gy是合适的。     

Development and external validation of a nomogram for overall survival after curative resection in serosa-negative,locally advanced gastric cancer

BackgroundFew nomograms can predict overall survival (OS) after curative resection of advanced gastric cancer (AGC), and these nomograms were developed using data from only a few large centers over a long time period. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an elaborative nomogram that predicts 5-year OS after curative resection for serosa-negative, locally AGC using a large amount of data from multiple centers in Japan over a short time period (2001–2003).Patients and methodsOf 39 859 patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer between 2001 and 2003 at multiple centers in Japan, we retrospectively analyzed 5196 patients with serosa-negative AGC who underwent Resection A according to the 13th Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma. The data of 3085 patients who underwent surgery from 2001 to 2002 were used as a training set for the construction of a nomogram and Web software. The data of 2111 patients who underwent surgery in 2003 were used as an external validation set.ResultsAge at operation, gender, tumor size and location, macroscopic type, histological type, depth of invasion, number of positive and examined lymph nodes, and lymphovascular invasion, but not the extent of lymphadenectomy, were associated with OS. Discrimination of the developed nomogram was superior to that of the TNM classification (concordance indices of 0.68 versus 0.61; P < 0.001). Moreover, calibration was accurate.ConclusionsWe have developed and externally validated an elaborative nomogram that predicts the 5-year OS of postoperative serosa-negative AGC. This nomogram would be helpful in the assessment of individual risks and in the consideration of additional therapy in clinical practice, and we have created freely available Web software to more easily and quickly predict OS and to draw a survival curve for these purposes.     

原发性肝细胞癌R0切除术后肝外转移患者生存分析

目的分析原发性肝细胞癌(hepatocellular carcinoma,HCC)患者R0切除术后肝外转移的生存时间和影响因素。方法回顾性分析2001-01-2010-12青岛大学附属医院收治的597例行R0切除术的原发性HCC患者临床资料和随访结果。Logistic回归分析术后肝外转移复发较单纯肝内复发的独立危险因素;Kaplan-Meier(Log-rank检验)分析不同部位肝外转移患者的预后。结果肝内复发组中位生存时间18.0个月,显著长于肝外转移复发组的8.0个月,χ2=25.2,P<0.001。经Logistic回归分析,年龄>60岁(OR=2.555,P=0.003)、肿瘤直径>5cm(OR=2.094,P=0.027)、肿瘤亚临床破裂型(OR=6.407,P=0.010)和血管癌栓(OR=5.267,P=0.003)为发生肝外转移的独立危险因素。单因素分析显示,与肝内复发组比较,肝外转移组中肿瘤亚临床破裂型(χ2=8.261,P=0.004)、HBsAg或Anti-HCV阳性(χ2=6.011,P=0.014)、谷丙转氨酶≤60U/L(χ2=5.064,P=0.024)、肿瘤侵及肝被膜(χ2=11.778,P=0.001)的患者显著增多。Logistic回归分析显示,与单纯肝内复发相比,肿瘤亚临床破裂型(OR=3.298,P=0.008)、谷丙转氨酶≤60U/L(OR=2.022,P=0.024)、肿瘤侵及肝被膜(OR=2.636,P=0.003)是发生肝外转移的独立危险因素。肝外转移最常见的脏器为肺、腹腔、骨骼和肾上腺等,其中接受手术切除、射频消融和索拉非尼等治疗患者的复发后生存时间高于仅对症治疗者。结论患者高龄、肿瘤大小、血管癌栓和肿瘤亚临床破裂与肝癌切除术后肝外转移的发生密切相关;对术后发生肝外转移患者,早期发现和治疗可提高患者复发后生存时间。     

胰腺癌根治术与术后辅助外放疗的疗效比较

目的 探讨术后放疗对胰腺癌患者生存率的影响.方法 44例胰腺癌患者分为手术组(根治性外科切除)和手术+放疗组(根治性外科切除后接受外放疗),比较两组患者的治疗效果.结果 手术组平均生存期为453 d,中位生存期为379 d.手术+放疗组平均生存期789 d,中位生存期为665 d.手术组和手术+放疗组的1、3、5年生存率分别为46.3%、8.3%、4.2%和65.2%、20.2%、14.1%,手术+放疗组优于手术组(P=0.017).手术+放疗组局部复发率及区域淋巴结转移率低于手术组(P<0.05),且并发症发生率并不高于手术组(P>0.05).结论 胰腺癌根治术后结合放疗有助于改善患者生存期.     

Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma

BACKGROUND:

Nephroureterectomy is the surgical standard of care for patients with upper urinary‐tract urothelial carcinoma. The objectives of the current study were to identify the most informative predictors of cancer‐specific mortality after nephroureterectomy, to devise an algorithm capable of predicting the individual probability of cancer‐specific mortality, and to compare its prognostic accuracy to that of the International Union Against Cancer (UICC) staging system.

METHODS:

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, the authors identified 5918 patients who had been treated with nephroureterectomy. Within the development cohort (n = 2959), multivariate Cox regression models predicting cancer‐specific mortality were fitted by using age, stage, nodal status, sex, grade, race, type of surgery (nephroureterectomy with or without bladder‐cuff removal), and tumor location (renal pelvis vs ureter). Backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion identified the most accurate and parsimonious model. Model validation and calibration were performed within the external validation cohort (n = 2959). External validation was also applied to the UICC staging system.

RESULTS:

The 5‐year freedom from cancer‐specific mortality rates in both the development and external validation cohorts was 77.3%. The most informative and parsimonious nomogram for cancer‐specific‐mortality–free survival relied on age, pT and pN stages, and tumor grade. In external validation, nomogram prediction of 5‐year cancer‐specific‐mortality–free rate was 75.4% accurate and was significantly better (P < .001) than the UICC staging system (64.8%).

CONCLUSIONS:

The current nomogram is capable of predicting the prognosis in patients with upper urinary‐tract urothelial carcinoma treated by nephroureterectomy with better accuracy than the UICC staging system. The authors recommend the application of this nomogram to routine clinical practice when counseling or making clinical decisions. Cancer 2010. © 2010 American Cancer Society.     

Adenocarcinoma of the gastric cardia. Recurrence and survival after resection.

Between January 1, 1983, and December 31, 1988, operations were performed on 112 patients with adenocarcinoma of the gastric cardia. Resection of the primary tumor was performed in 93 patients. For these 93 patients, follow-up until July 1, 1989, averaged 24 months, during which time 59 patients died. Positive resection margins carried a greater risk for the development of a local recurrence but did not correlate with survival. The cumulative overall 5-year actuarial recurrence rate was 69%. The cumulative 5-year recurrence rate for metastases was 64% and for locoregional recurrence it was 36%. The overall 5-year survival rate was 24%. Differences in survival were observed between patients with carcinomas of the various subgroups of the 1987 TNM classification system (T1-T2 versus T3-T4, N0 versus N1-N2, M0 versus M1, Stages I-II versus Stages III-IV, Grades 1-2 versus Grades 3-4). In particular, lymph node status as correlated with histopathologic grade showed remarkable differences in survival: patients with no positive lymph nodes in the resection specimen and a Grade 1 or 2 tumor had a significantly better 5-year survival rate (53%) than the other subgroups (N0/Grades 3-4: 21%; N1-N2/Grades 1-2: 12%; N1-N2/Grades 3-4: 14%).     

Postoperative nomogram for disease recurrence after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: Although models exist that place patients into discrete groups at various risks for disease recurrence after surgery for prostate cancer, we know of no published work that combines pathologic factors to predict an individual's probability of disease recurrence. Because clinical stage and biopsy Gleason grade only approximate pathologic stage and Gleason grade in the prostatectomy specimen, prediction of prognosis should be more accurate when postoperative information is added to preoperative variables. Therefore, we developed a postoperative nomogram that allows more accurate prediction of probability for disease recurrence for patients who have received radical prostatectomy as treatment for prostate cancer, compared with the preoperative nomogram we previously published. PATIENTS AND METHODS: By Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, we modeled the clinical and pathologic data and disease follow-up for 996 men with clinical stage T1a-T3c NXM0 prostate cancer who were treated with radical prostatectomy by a single surgeon at our institution. Prognostic variables included pretreatment serum prostate-specific antigen level, specimen Gleason sum, prostatic capsular invasion, surgical margin status, seminal vesicle invasion, and lymph node status. Treatment failure was recorded when there was either clinical evidence of disease recurrence, a rising serum prostate-specific antigen level (two measurements of 0.4 ng/mL or greater and rising), or initiation of adjuvant therapy. Validation was performed on this set of men and a separate sample of 322 men from five other surgeons' practices from our institution. RESULTS: Cancer recurrence was noted in 189 of the 996 men, and the recurrence-free group had a median follow-up period of 37 months (range, 1 to 168 months). The 7-year recurrence-free probability for the cohort was 73% (95% confidence interval, 68% to 76%). The predictions from the nomogram appeared to be accurate and discriminating, with a validation sample area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ie, a comparison of the predicted probability with the actual outcome) of 0.89. CONCLUSION: A postoperative nomogram has been developed that can be used to predict the 7-year probability of disease recurrence among men treated with radical prostatectomy.     

Factors related to survival following resection for gastric carcinoma: analysis of 903 cases.

This report is based on 903 patients with resections for gastric carcinoma between October 1957, and July 1969, entered in controlled trials of adjuvant therapy with Thio-TEPA and FUDR. Neither Thio-TEPA nor FUDR, as administered, prolonged survival. The extent of disease at the time of curative surgery is related to survival for the first 36 months postoperatively. Involvement of lymph nodes, resection of the esophagus, and serosal penetration are predictive of recurrence up to 36 months. There appear to be three groups of patients: 1) Cured (26%); 2) Slowly growing tumor--23% (median survival, 25 months); and 3) Rapidly growing tumor--51% (median survival, eight months). The absence of blood-vessel invasion, lymphatic invasion, lymph-node involvement, and serosal penetration characterize those patients in Group A.     

A nomogram to predict early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumour thrombus after R0 liver resection: A large-scale,multicenter study

BackgroundPortal vein tumour thrombus (PVTT) is a significant poor prognostic factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients with PVTT limited to a first-order branch or above of the main portal vein (MPV) could benefit from R0 liver resection (LR). A nomogram is needed to predict early postoperative recurrence (ER) in HCC patients with PVTT and to guide selection of these patients for adjuvant therapy to reduce postoperative recurrence risks.MethodsHCC patients with PVTT limited to a first-order branch or above of the MPV after R0 LR as an initial therapy were included. A nomogram using data from a retrospective training cohort was developed with the Cox regression model. The model was tested in a prospective internal validation cohort and three external validation cohorts.ResultsOf 979 patients, 657 developed postoperative ER (67.1%). ER occurred in 165 of 264 patients (62.5%) in the training cohort, 146 of 218 patients (70.0%) in the internal validation cohort, and 204 of 284 patients (71.8%), 77 of 113 patients (68.1%), and 65 of 100 patients (65%) in the three external validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), PVTT, HBV DNA, satellite nodules, α-fetoprotein, and tumour diameter. The ROC were 0.836, 0.763, 0.802, 0.837, and 0.846 in predicting ER in the five respective cohorts.ConclusionA nomogram was developed and validated to predict postoperative ER in patients with HCC with PVTT after R0 LR. This nomogram could select appropriate patients with high ER risks for postoperative adjuvant therapy.     

External validation of nomogram for the prediction of recurrence after curative resection in early gastric cancer

BackgroundNomograms are statistics-based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. In our previous study, we developed a nomogram that predicts recurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) after curative resection. We carried out this study to externally validate our EGC nomogram.Patients and methodsThe EGC nomogram was established from a retrospective EGC database that included 2923 consecutive patients. This nomogram was independently externally validated for a cohort of 1058 consecutive patients. For the EGC nomogram validation, we assessed both discrimination and calibration.ResultsWithin the follow-up period (median 37 months), a total of 11 patients (1.1%) experienced recurrence. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.7 (P = 0.02) and the result of the overall C index was 0.82 [P = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59–1.00]. The goodness of fit test showed that the EGC nomogram had significantly good fit for 1- and 2-year survival intervals (P = 0.998 and 0.879, respectively). The actual and predicted survival outcomes showed good agreement, suggesting that the survival predictions from the nomogram are well calibrated externally.ConclusionsA preexisting nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of EGC after surgery was externally validated. The nomogram is useful for accurate and individual prediction of DFS, patient prognostication, counseling, and follow-up planning.     

Postoperative nomogram for 12-year sarcoma-specific death.

PURPOSE: Few published studies have analyzed risk factors for sarcoma-specific death. We developed and internally validated a nomogram that combines the factors to predict the probability of 12-year sarcoma-specific death using a database of 2,136 prospectively followed adult patients treated at a single institution. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Nomogram predictor variables included age at diagnosis, tumor size (< or = 5, 5 to 10, or > 10 cm), histologic grade (high or low), histologic subtype (fibrosarcoma, leiomyosarcoma, liposarcoma, malignant fibrous histiocytoma, malignant peripheral nerve tumor, synovial, or other), depth (superficial or deep), and site (upper extremity, lower extremity, visceral, thoracic or trunk, retrointraabdominal, or head or neck). Death from sarcoma or treatment complication was the predicted end point. Three prediction methods were compared, Kaplan-Meier analysis of all possible subsets, recursive partitioning, and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure with bootstrapping to correct for optimistic bias. RESULTS: Sarcoma-specific death at 12 years was 36% (95% confidence interval, 33% to 39%). The bootstrap-corrected concordance indices were as follows: Kaplan-Meier, 0.69; recursive partitioning, 0.74; and Cox regression, 0.77. A nomogram was drawn on the basis of the Cox regression model. This nomogram was internally validated using bootstrapping and shown to have excellent calibration. CONCLUSION: A nomogram has been developed to predict 12-year sarcoma-specific death. This tool may be useful for patient counseling, follow-up scheduling, and clinical trial eligibility determination.     

酗酒史对原发性肝细胞癌患者R0根治术预后影响的分析

目的:探讨酗酒史对原发性肝细胞癌(HCC)患者R0切除术后预后的影响.方法:回顾性分析2001-01-01-2009-12-30我院实施的原发性HCC肝切除术519例临床资料,Kaplan-Meier法计算生存率.Cox回归分析影响生存的预后相关因素.结果:519例HCC患者中,酗酒组(137例)和非酗酒组(382例)的患者的中位总体生存时间(OS)分别为42.0和60.7个月(P=0.024),无瘤生存时间(DFS)分别为21.0和31.0个月(P＝0.010).与非酗酒组相比,酗酒组非解剖性切除、术前血清GGT＞64 U/L、随访期间复发较多.Kaplan-Meier分析显示,术前血清AFP＞20 ng/mL、术前血清GGT＞64 U/L、肝切除范围＞2段、术中出血量≥1 000 mL、术中输血、手术切缘＜0.5 cm、大肝癌、组织学中和低分化、非孤立型、酗酒均是影响本组患者OS和DFS的重要因素.Cox回归模型分析结果显示,非孤立型HCC、肿瘤直径≥5 cm和GGT＞ 64 U/mL是影响HCC患者OS的独立危险因素.非孤立型HCC、肿瘤直径≥5 cm、肿瘤切缘＜0.5 cm和术前酗酒是影响DFS的独立危险因素.结论:有酗酒史的HCC患者R0切除术后的预后较差,酗酒史不是影响患者OS的独立危险因素,但有酗酒史患者的炎症状态明显,复发率高于无酗酒史.