Using Simulation for AIDS Policy Modeling: Benefits for HIV/AIDS Prevention Policy Makers in Vienna, Austria

In spite of advanced therapies and the success of additional prevention programs, the HIV/AIDS epidemic still remains a challenge. Our paper refers academics, health care managers, and policy makers to the relevance of AIDS policy simulators in better decision-making. By highlighting the types of decisions AIDS policy models can support, we demonstrate the strategic role of AIDS policy simulators for the efficient and effective planning of scarce resources to fight the epidemic. For each type of decision, we then review exemplary AIDS policy simulators that have helped policy makers make better decisions. Finally, we present the benefits of an AIDS policy simulator for HIV/AIDS prevention policy makers in Vienna, Austria.     

Rethinking about HIV infection and AIDS

There is growing interest in the theory that HIV is only a co-factor in the epidemiology of AIDS--a perspective with profound implications for models designed to forecast the future of the AIDS epidemic. Potential input variables for such models include age distribution, initial HIV prevalence, mortality, fertility, work status, migration, intravenous drug users, professional blood donors, transfused blood receivers, homosexuals, commercial sex workers, infected asymptomatic stage duration, number of partners, and state of pregnancy. Models would be of more use to policy makers if they went beyond estimations of eventual epidemic size to evaluate the magnitude of direct and indirect costs to the economy, health sector, and families. An important function of any model should be to assist countries to decide how to spend limited resources. Needed are both standard models to produce simple extrapolations for policy makers and decision makers and more complex models for pinpointing appropriate HIV/AIDS preventive interventions.     

Optimization Models for HIV/AIDS Resource Allocation: A Systematic Review

ObjectiveThis study reviews optimization models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) resource allocation.MethodsWe searched 2 databases for peer-reviewed articles published from January 1985 through August 2019 that describe optimization models for resource allocation in HIV/AIDS. We included models that consider 2 or more competing HIV/AIDS interventions. We extracted data on selected characteristics and identified similarities and differences across models. We also assessed the quality of mathematical disease transmission models based on the best practices identified by a 2010 task force.ResultsThe final qualitative synthesis included 23 articles that used 14 unique optimization models. The articles shared several characteristics, including the use of dynamic transmission modeling to estimate health benefits and the inclusion of specific high-risk groups in the study population. The models explored similar HIV/AIDS interventions that span primary and secondary prevention and antiretroviral treatment. Most articles were focused on sub-Saharan African countries (57%) and the United States (39%). There was notable variation in the types of optimization objectives across the articles; the most common was minimizing HIV incidence or maximizing infections averted (87%). Articles that utilized mathematical modeling of HIV disease and transmission displayed variable quality.ConclusionsThis systematic review of the literature identified examples of optimization models that have been applied in different settings, many of which displayed similar features. There were similarities in objective functions across optimization models, but they did not align with global HIV/AIDS goals or targets. Future work should be applied in countries facing the largest declines in HIV/AIDS funding.     

Critical considerations for adopting the HIV ‘treat all’ approach in Zimbabwe: is the nation poised?

While the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased survival and reduced the number of acquired immune-deficiency syndrome (AIDS) related deaths among people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) virus (PLHIV), HIV/AIDS remains a global health problem and sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the greatest burden of disease. There are also major challenges in the HIV response: as of December 2013, only 36% of PLHIV globally were on ART, and for every individual started on ART there were two new PLHIV diagnosed. This has led to considerable debate around adopting an HIV ‘treat all’ approach aimed at greatly escalating the number of PLHIV initiated and retained on ART, regardless of CD4 cell count or World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage, with the intended goal of achieving viral suppression which should in turn reduce HIV transmission, morbidity and mortality in affected individuals. This paper examines the issues being discussed in Zimbabwe, a low-income country with a high burden of HIV/AIDS, about the implications and opportunities of adopting an HIV ‘treat all’ approach, along with pertinent operational research questions that need to be answered to move the agenda forward. These discussions are timely, given the recent WHO recommendations advising ART for all PLHIV, regardless of CD4 cell count.     

S4HARA: System for HIV/AIDS resource allocation

Background

HIV/AIDS resource allocation decisions are influenced by political, social, ethical and other factors that are difficult to quantify. Consequently, quantitative models of HIV/AIDS resource allocation have had limited impact on actual spending decisions. We propose a decision-support System for HIV/AIDS Resource Allocation (S4HARA) that takes into consideration both principles of efficient resource allocation and the role of non-quantifiable influences on the decision-making process for resource allocation.

Methods

S4HARA is a four-step spreadsheet-based model. The first step serves to identify the factors currently influencing HIV/AIDS allocation decisions. The second step consists of prioritizing HIV/AIDS interventions. The third step involves allocating the budget to the HIV/AIDS interventions using a rational approach. Decision-makers can select from several rational models of resource allocation depending on availability of data and level of complexity. The last step combines the results of the first and third steps to highlight the influencing factors that act as barriers or facilitators to the results suggested by the rational resource allocation approach. Actionable recommendations are then made to improve the allocation. We illustrate S4HARA in the context of a primary healthcare clinic in South Africa.

Results

The clinic offers six types of HIV/AIDS interventions and spends US$750,000 annually on these programs. Current allocation decisions are influenced by donors, NGOs and the government as well as by ethical and religious factors. Without additional funding, an optimal allocation of the total budget suggests that the portion allotted to condom distribution be increased from 1% to 15% and the portion allotted to prevention and treatment of opportunistic infections be increased from 43% to 71%, while allocation to other interventions should decrease.

Conclusion

Condom uptake at the clinic should be increased by changing the condom distribution policy from a pull system to a push system. NGOs and donors promoting antiretroviral programs at the clinic should be sensitized to the results of the model and urged to invest in wellness programs aimed at the prevention and treatment of opportunistic infections. S4HARA differentiates itself from other decision support tools by providing rational HIV/AIDS resource allocation capabilities as well as consideration of the realities facing authorities in their decision-making process.     

Trends in HIV seroprevalence, AIDS and prevention policy among intravenous drug users and men who have sex with men, before and after 1990 in Austria

This study reports for the first time on secular trends in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and AIDS, and possible associations with prevention policy in Austria. We analysed HIV seroprevalence and AIDS cases among intravenous drug users (IDU) and men who have sex with men (MSM). In this study we found a diminished rate of increase in new cases of AIDS and a decline in HIV seroprevalence among IDU but not among MSM. Among clients visiting HIV counselling and testing centres in Austria between 1987 and 1990, seroprevalence among IDU was estimated at 27.9% as compared to 19.6% between 1990 and 1992 (odds ratio: 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45–0.85). Among MSM corresponding prevalence for these two periods was 12.1% and 10.9%, respectively, which was not a significant decline. In the period 1990 to 1994, the increase in AIDS cases per half-year levelled off for IDU (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.00; 95% CI: 0.99–1.01) but to a lesser extent among MSM (IRR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02). The most effective prevention policy intervention was considered to be the national methadone maintenance program (MMTP), started in 1987, and the provision of sterile injection equipment. We observed that in the recent period there was a decline in the frequency of attendance among young (less than 28 years of age) MSM at counselling centres (odds ratio (OR): 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08–1.49), accompanied by the observation that the rate of seroprevalence among this group did not decline. This is in contrast to young IDU where attendance did not decline but seroprevalence did. Although inference is limited from cross sectional studies, we argue for a reoriented and effectively monitored HIV prevention policy focused on young MSM.     

The influence of health knowledge in shaping political priorities: Examining HIV/AIDS knowledge and public opinion about global health and domestic policies

Abstract

Public opinion polls have historically indicated that the US public favours domestic over global priorities. It is not known what influence health knowledge has in shaping public opinion about domestic and global health policy. This study examines how knowledge of HIV/AIDS is related to the rated importance of domestic and global health issues. Participants were recruited to participate in an electronic survey (N = 995) and were predominantly White (86.3%), married (61.9%) and female (71.8%). HIV/AIDS knowledge was significantly associated with both domestic (β = 0.12, p < 0.05) and global health (β = 0.14, p < 0.01) priorities after controlling for sociodemographic variables. In addition, global health was found to act as a mediator between HIV/AIDS knowledge and perceived importance of domestic issues. Study findings suggest that those with greater HIV/AIDS knowledge rate global health issues higher, which in turn affects ratings of more domestic issues. This research has implications for ways to gain support for implementation of public health policy through increasing health knowledge.     

The end of AIDS?: AIDS reporting in the Australian press in the mid-1990s

In news reports of HIV/AIDS, the discourses giving meaning to the pandemic have constantly shifted and changed since its emergence in the early 1980s. This article presents an analysis of HIV/AIDS reporting in the Australian press in the three-year period between 1994 and 1996. It focuses on two dominant topical themes appearing in this period: politics and policy debates around HIV/AIDS and medico-scientific research and treatment issues. It is argued that in the mid-1990s HIV/AIDS has increasingly become portrayed as a biomedical rather than a public health problem, and again as affecting gay men rather than the general population. It is suggested that these changes in representation may eventually lead to ‘the end of AIDS’ as a highly prominent phenomenon in the news media, with implications for general attitudes towards the syndrome and future policy and funding decisions.     

The lives of drug injectors and English social policy

The lives of drug injectors are characterized by a number of personal, social and economic circumstances, which are linked to the tenets of social policy. Prior to the emergence of HIV and AIDS little research was directed towards understanding the lives and behavior of drug injectors. However, as more was learnt about the virus and the ways in which people behave, drug injectors became an important focus for research and policy making in relation to HIV and AIDS. However, there are wider life issues outside of those of HIV and AIDS that also affect drug injectors. This paper highlights some of these considerations and the value of a holistic approach to understanding drug injectors' lives in social policy; an approach that could usefully be applied to other groups of people.     

Cost-effectiveness models of clinical trials of new pharmaceuticals for AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia: are they helpful to policy makers?

BACKGROUND: Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) has been the most common and most costly complication of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Because of concern over the high costs of care for persons with AIDS, policy makers have instituted a number of new measures to encourage cost-effectiveness. Although the clinical efficacy of new pharmaceutical agents is evaluated extensively before approval, comparative trials of a new agent with its major competitor are sometimes not carried out, and estimates of cost-effectiveness are therefore difficult to obtain. METHODS: We describe methodologic issues associated with the development of economic models of new pharmaceutical agents and illustrate these issues with an analysis of second-line therapeutic options for PCP. RESULTS: A new drug, trimetrexate, and the standard second-line therapy, pentamidine, are both inferior to the standard first-line therapy, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, as initial therapy for moderate to severe PCP. However, as many as half of the patients with PCP are either intolerant or refractory to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole therapy for PCP. Economic models suggest that, if the two drugs have identical survival rates, then trimetrexate, despite a higher acquisition cost, is both less expensive and more effective in achieving toxicity-free survival than pentamidine in patients who require second-line therapy for PCP. Sensitivity analyses indicate that trimetrexate is less expensive than pentamidine over a wide range of estimates of costs and effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: To make well-informed therapeutic decisions, policy makers and physicians require head-to-head studies of a new pharmaceutical agent with its major competitor. However, economic models can be used to derive estimates of cost-effectiveness of new pharmaceutical agents when such data are lacking. The interpretation of these models raises general issues related to the perspective of the investigators, study design, estimation of costs of care, rates of response, toxicity, and survival, and generalizability of the results to other settings as well as methodologic issues that are unique to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease. If a comparative trial found better survival rates, then cost-effectiveness models would be of limited usefulness; almost all physicians would use the drug with the higher survival rate.     

Estimating the Health Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies: Addressing Parametric,Model, and Valuation Challenges

Background: Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output.Objective: Our objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake.Methods: We describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty.Discussion: There is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits.Conclusion: Modeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health.Citation: Remais JV, Hess JJ, Ebi KL, Markandya A, Balbus JM, Wilkinson P, Haines A, Chalabi Z. 2014. Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges. Environ Health Perspect 122:447–455; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306744     

Circus monkeys or change agents? Civil society advocacy for HIV/AIDS in adverse policy environments

This paper explores the factors enabling and undermining civil society efforts to advocate for policy reforms relating to HIV/AIDS and illicit drugs in three countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine. It examines how political contexts and civil society actors’ strengths and weaknesses inhibit or enable advocacy for policy change – issues that are not well understood in relation to specific policy areas such as HIV/AIDS, or particular regions of the world where national policies are believed to be major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The study is based on in-depth interviews with representatives of civil society organizations (CSOs) (n = 49) and national level informants including government and development partners (n = 22). Our policy analysis identified a culture of fear derived from concerns for personal safety but also risk of losing donor largesse. Relations between CSOs and government were often acrimonious rather than synergistic, and while we found some evidence of CSO collective action, competition for external funding – in particular for HIV/AIDS grants from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria was often divisive. Development partners and government tend to construct CSOs as service providers rather than advocates. While some advocacy was tolerated by governments, CSO participation in the policy process was, ultimately, perceived to be tokenistic. This was because there are financial interests in maintaining prohibitionist legislation: efforts to change punitive laws directed at the behaviors of minority groups such as injecting drug users have had limited impact.     

Accounting for the increase in NSAID expenditure: substitution or leakage?

Priority setting of health interventions is often ad-hoc and resources are not used to an optimal extent. Underlying problem is that multiple criteria play a role and decisions are complex. Interventions may be chosen to maximize general population health, to reduce health inequalities of disadvantaged or vulnerable groups, ad/or to respond to life-threatening situations, all with respect to practical and budgetary constraints. This is the type of problem that policy makers are typically bad at solving rationally, unaided. They tend to use heuristic or intuitive approaches to simplify complexity, and in the process, important information is ignored. Next, policy makers may select interventions for only political motives. This indicates the need for rational and transparent approaches to priority setting. Over the past decades, a number of approaches have been developed, including evidence-based medicine, burden of disease analyses, cost-effectiveness analyses, and equity analyses. However, these approaches concentrate on single criteria only, whereas in reality, policy makers need to make choices taking into account multiple criteria simultaneously. Moreover, they do not cover all criteria that are relevant to policy makers. Therefore, the development of a multi-criteria approach to priority setting is necessary, and this has indeed recently been identified as one of the most important issues in health system research. In other scientific disciplines, multi-criteria decision analysis is well developed, has gained widespread acceptance and is routinely used. This paper presents the main principles of multi-criteria decision analysis. There are only a very few applications to guide resource allocation decisions in health. We call for a shift away from present priority setting tools in health – that tend to focus on single criteria – towards transparent and systematic approaches that take into account all relevant criteria simultaneously.     

Health policy issues and applications for evidence-based medicine and clinical practice guidelines

Evidence-based medicine and clinical practice guidelines have become increasingly salient to the international health care community in the 1990s. Key issues in health policy in this period can be categorised as costs and access to care, quality of and satisfaction with care, accountability for value in health care, and public health and education. This paper presents a brief overview of evidence-based medicine and clinical practice guidelines and describes how they are likely to influence health policy. Evidence-based medicine focuses on the use of the best available clinical (efficacy) evidence to inform decisions about patient care; guidelines are statements systematically developed from efficacy and effectiveness research and clinical consensus for practitioners and patients to use in making decisions about appropriate care under different clinical circumstances. Both fields have developed methods for evaluating and synthesising available evidence about the outcomes of alternative health care interventions. They have clear implications for health policy analysts: greater reliance should be placed on scientific evidence, policy decisions should be derived systematically, and health care decisionmaking must allow for the active participation of health care providers, policy makers, and patients or their advocates. The methods and information generated from evidence-based guidelines efforts are critical inputs into health policy analysis and decision-making.     

The influence of health knowledge in shaping political priorities: examining HIV/AIDS knowledge and public opinion about global health and domestic policies

Public opinion polls have historically indicated that the US public favours domestic over global priorities. It is not known what influence health knowledge has in shaping public opinion about domestic and global health policy. This study examines how knowledge of HIV/AIDS is related to the rated importance of domestic and global health issues. Participants were recruited to participate in an electronic survey (N = 995) and were predominantly White (86.3%), married (61.9%) and female (71.8%). HIV/AIDS knowledge was significantly associated with both domestic (β = 0.12, p < 0.05) and global health (β = 0.14, p < 0.01) priorities after controlling for sociodemographic variables. In addition, global health was found to act as a mediator between HIV/AIDS knowledge and perceived importance of domestic issues. Study findings suggest that those with greater HIV/AIDS knowledge rate global health issues higher, which in turn affects ratings of more domestic issues. This research has implications for ways to gain support for implementation of public health policy through increasing health knowledge.     

HIV/AIDS interventions in an aging U.S. population

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 25 percent of people living with HIV in the United States in 2006 were age 50 and older. HIV prevention for people over 50 is an important health concern, especially as the U.S. population grows older. Scholarly research has identified the need for HIV/AIDS interventions in the population of people over age 50, but few interventions have been established. The ecological perspective, which integrates intrapersonal, interpersonal, organizational, community, and policy factors, was used to review the current interventions and propose possible new HIV/AIDS prevention efforts for older adults. Intrapersonal interventions are often based on the health belief model. The precaution adoption process model was explored as an alternative intrapersonal theory for modeling prevention efforts. Community interventions using diffusion of innovations theory are fully explored, and new interventions are proposed as an option for preventing HIV/AIDS in older adults. An agenda for future research and interventions is proposed. Social workers will be at the forefront of the effort to prevent HIV/AIDS in older adults. They must accept this responsibility, propose interventions, and evaluate their effectiveness.     

A Controlled Pre-Post Evaluation of a Computer-based HIV/AIDS Education on Students’ Sexual Behaviors,Knowledge and Attitudes

Unlike traditional approaches to sexuality and HIV education which can be constrained by the sensitive nature of the subject, Information Technology (IT) can be an innovative teaching tool that can be used to educate people about HIV. This is especially relevant to interventions targeting young people; the population group fond of using IT, and the same group that is more vulnerable to HIV/AIDS. Yet, there are significantly few empirical studies that rigorously evaluated computer-assisted school-based HIV/AIDS interventions in developing countries. The modest studies conducted in this area have largely been conducted in developed countries, leaving little known about the effectiveness of such interventions in low resource settings, which moreover host the majority of HIV/AIDS infections.This research addresses this gap by conducting a controlled pre-post intervention evaluation of the impacts of the World Starts With Me (WSWM), a computer-assisted HIV/AIDS intervention implemented in schools in Uganda. The research question was: did the WSWM intervention significantly influence students’ sexual behaviors, HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes and self-efficacy? To address this question, questionnaires were simultaneously administering to 146 students in an intervention group (the group receiving the WSWM intervention) and 146 students in a comparison group (the group who did not receive the WSWM intervention), before (February 2009) and after the intervention (December 2009).Findings indicate that the intervention significantly improved students’ HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes self-efficacy, sex abstinence and fidelity, but had no significant impact on condom use. The major reason for non-use of condoms was lack of knowledge about condom use which can be attributed to teachers’ failure and inabilities to demonstrate condom use in class. To address this challenge, intervention teachers should be continuously trained in skills-based and interactive sexuality education. This training will equip them with self-confidence and interactive teaching skills, including tactics for emphasizing building students’ skills through role plays and interactive assignments. In addition, the HIV interventions themselves should include interactive virtual condom use demonstrations that can be accessed by students themselves.     

Women, reproductive rights, and HIV/AIDS: issues on which research and interventions are still needed

From 2002 to 2005, two literature reviews identified a number of reproductive health issues that appeared to be relatively neglected in relation to HIV/AIDS: contraceptive information tailored to the needs of HIV-positive people; voluntary HIV counselling and testing during antenatal care, labour, and delivery; parenting options for HIV-positive people besides pregnancy through unprotected intercourse (i.e. assisted conception and legal adoption or foster care); unwanted pregnancy; and abortion-related care. An additional finding was that stigma and discrimination were frequently cited as barriers to enjoyment of reproductive rights by HIV-positive women. Subsequently, a pilot project was initiated in which non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in developing countries used benchmarks to ascertain whether these neglected issues were addressed in local programmes and interventions serving women affected by HIV and AIDS. The benchmarks also assessed whether policies and programmes paid attention to the human and reproductive rights of HIV-positive women. This paper describes the main findings from the two exercises in relation to contraception for women living with HIV or AIDS, abortion-related care, legal adoption by HIV-positive parents, and reproductive rights. It concludes with a number of recommendations on topics to be incorporated into the international research agenda, policies, and programmes in the field of HIV/AIDS.