Future trends in mortality of French men from mesothelioma

OBJECTIVES—Previous projections of mortality from mesothelioma among French men have used the age-generation method, based on the Poisson regression model. In this study an alternative method to model mortality from mesothelioma was used to predict its future trend: this method was based on the risk function that links this mortality to past exposure to asbestos, combined with population exposure data.
METHOD—Data on past French asbestos imports were used to model the overall past exposure to asbestos in men and assess two extreme scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for its future trends. The number of male deaths occurring between the ages of 50 and 79, from 1997-2050, was then calculated with the risk function for mesothelioma.
RESULTS—The results showed that mortality from mesothelioma among French men aged 50-79 will continue to increase, reaching a peak averaging between 1140 (optimistic scenario) and 1300 deaths (pessimistic scenario) annually around the years 2030 and 2040, respectively. No preventive measures applied now will affect this trend before then. These results are similar to those of two other predictions of mortality from mesothelioma among French men: a peak around 2030 of 800-1600 deaths annually among men aged 25-89 years, and a peak around 2020 of 1550 deaths annually among men aged 40-84.
CONCLUSIONS—Our results indicate that between 1997 and 2050, the most optimistic and pessimistic trends of future exposure will lead to the deaths from mesothelioma of between 44 480 and 57 020 men, with a corresponding loss of from 877 200 to 1 171 500 person-years of life.


Keywords: mesothelioma; risk function; mortality trends; prediction; France     

Mesothelioma in Great Britain in 1968-1983

The British mesothelioma register records deaths in Great Britain when the word "mesothelioma" is on the death certificate. In 1968-1983 the mesothelioma deaths among men increased from 114 to 467, while those among women increased from 38 to 90. In 1983 the crude mesothelioma death rates were 17.5 per million and 3.2 per million for the men and women, respectively. The Northern region had the highest crude rates. At the county level, the highest crude deaths rates in 1976-1983 were recorded for the men in Devon and for the women in Lancashire. Marked differences occurred in the ratio of deaths among men to deaths among women for mesothelioma of the pleura (4.6:1) and for mesothelioma of the peritoneum (2:1). The age-specific death rates for men and women diverged markedly for pleural mesothelioma but not for peritoneal mesothelioma. Trends in the use of asbestos and in age- and sex-specific death rates suggest that the annual number of mesothelioma deaths will continue to increase, possibly until the turn of the century. This increase will be concentrated among the men as the main asbestos exposure of women occurred during the war and the annual deaths due to this exposure may have already peaked.     

Mortality study of workers compensated for asbestosis in Poland, 1970-1997

The aim of the study was to assess the risk of asbestos-related malignancies among persons with diagnosed asbestosis. The study covered a cohort composed of 907 men and 490 women afflicted by asbestosis, diagnosed is 1970-1997. The follow-up of the cohort continued until 31 December 1999. In all, 421 deaths were registered and causes of death were retrieved for 93.3% of the deceased. A significantly increased mortality was observed both in the male 1300 deaths; SMR = 127; 95%CI: 113-142) and female (121 deaths, SMR = 150; 95%CI: 124-179) cohorts. The elevated number of deaths in the male and female cohorts were noted mainly due to respiratory diseases (men: 42 deaths; SMR = 344; 95%CI: 248-465; women: 20 deaths, SMR = 789; 95%CI: 482-1219) malignant neoplasms (men: 91 deaths, SMR = 146; 95%CI: 118-179; women: 34 deaths, SMR = 159; 95%CI: 110-222), including lung cancer (men: 39 deaths, SMR = 168; 95% CI: 119-230; women: 13 deaths, SMR = 621; 95%CI: 331-1062) and pleural mesothelioma (men: 3 deaths, SMR = 2680; 95%CI: 553-7832; women: 3 deaths, SMR = 7207; 95%CI: 1031-14612). Taking into account a cumulative dose of fibers, it was found that a significantly increased mortality from lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma applied to persons exposed to a dose above 25 f-y/ml. The results indicate that persons with asbestosis are at higher risk of developing malignant neoplasms, especially lung cancer and mesothelioma.     

Incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and predicted future number of cases among men

OBJECTIVES: This study analyzed the incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark in order to predict the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men. METHODS: The 1912 cases of malignant mesothelioma reported to the Danish Cancer registry in 1943-1993 were analyzed in order to describe current incidence rates. By a Poisson regression model the relative risks of synthetic birth cohorts were estimated and used in the prediction of the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men. RESULTS: The incidence rate increased to 1.33 per 100000 person-years in 1983-1987 among men and to 0.51 in 1973-1977 among women. From the Poisson regression model, the risk for birth cohorts of men, relative to the 1940-1944 cohort, peaked in the 1940-1944 cohort and decreased to 0.57 in the 1950-1954 cohort. The age-specific incidence rate peaked at 246 per 100000 person-years in the age group 80-84 years. The future annual number of mesothelioma cases is expected to peak around 2015 with 93 cases among men born before 1955. CONCLUSIONS: The fit of the models was not ideal, but with careful interpretation of the results, it was concluded that a further increase in the number of mesothelioma cases can be expected, and the effect of regulating the environmental exposure to asbestos cannot be expected within the next 10-15 years.     

Risk of mesothelioma from exposure to crocidolite asbestos: a 1995 update of a South African mortality study

OBJECTIVE—To find the risk of developing mesothelioma in a cohort born in 1916-36 in Prieska, Northern Cape Province, South Africa.
METHODS—A birth cohort mortality study was carried out in a small town in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa, with a history of crocidolite asbestos mining and milling. The cohort comprised all white births registered in the magisterial district of Prieska from 1916 to 1936, inclusive (2390). Causes of death due to mesothelioma and other cancers as recorded on medical certificates of cause of death were investigated. Person-years analysis was used to calculate mortalities due to mesothelioma, other respiratory cancers, and other non-respiratory cancers. Proportional cancer mortalities were also calculated for mesothelioma and other specific neoplasms.
RESULTS—The follow up rate for the cohort was 74.3% in 1995, and 683 traced members (38.6%) had died. Cause of death was unknown for 6.4% of deaths. There were 118 cases of cancer, 28 of them from mesothelioma, giving a cause specific mortality for mesothelioma of 277 (170-384) per 10⁶ person-years. The rates for men and women were 366 and 172 per 10⁶ person-years, respectively. The mortality for lung cancer (29 deaths) was 287 (135-436) per 10⁶ person-years, and that for other non-respiratory cancers (60 deaths) was 593 (442-745). Two cases of laryngeal and four of colon cancer were observed. All cancer mortality, mesothelioma, and lung cancer proportional cancer mortality ratios were increased.
CONCLUSION—The mortality for mesothelioma in men was twice that in women, probably because men were more likely to have had both occupational and environmental exposure to asbestos. Nevertheless, the mortality in women was still high and is probably indicative of the environmental exposure as white women were rarely employed in the asbestos industry in the Prieska area. Due to the long latency from first exposure to diagnosis of the neoplasm, the cause specific mortality in this cohort could be expected to increase rapidly over the next 10 years.


Keywords: South Africa; asbestos; environmental exposure; occupational exposure; cohort; mesothelioma; lung cancer     

Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers

BACKGROUND: Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. OBJECTIVE: To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. METHODS: The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. RESULTS: The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma. CONCLUSION: This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.     

Three decades of pleural cancer and mesothelioma registration in Austria where asbestos cement was invented

Recently, a new mesothelioma epidemic was predicted from observations made in Western Europe. From early observations in Austria the lower increase in cases of mesothelioma compared with neighbor countries had been related to different uses of asbestos. In order to test this hypothesis, incidence and mortality of pleural cancer [International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-8/9 163] were analyzed for three decades and supplemented by data from a cohort study in the factory that had been the largest consumer of asbestos imported to Austria and from all Austrian occupational diseases registered between 1990 and 2001. In men, mortality rates (based on 15 to 45 deaths/year) were lowest in 1980-1989, but similar in 1970-1979 and 1990-2001. No increase in younger-birth cohorts was detected. Incidence rates (based on 13 to 44 cases/year) increased (36%) non-significantly ( P=0.14). In women, a significant decrease in mortality and incidence rates ( P<0.01) was observed from 1970. Rates from work-related mesothelioma (based on only 0-7 men and 0-4 women/year) must be interpreted with caution. In the cohort of 2,816 asbestos cement workers 26 pleural mesotheliomas were registered from 1990 through mid-1999. Six of these cases (three male and three female) had not been registered as an occupational disease, but all of these cases had been encoded under ICD 163 in mortality statistics. One female cohort member registered as having asbestosis according to the death certificate had died from mesothelioma according to the statistics of occupational diseases. We conclude that no epidemic of mesothelioma due to past asbestos exposure is to be expected in Austria.     

Historical cohort study of US man-made vitreous fiber production workers: II. Mortality from mesothelioma

As part of our ongoing mortality surveillance program for the US man-made vitreous fiber (MMVF) industry, we examined mortality from malignant mesothelioma using data from our 1989 follow-up of 3478 rock/slag wool workers and our 1992 follow-up of 32,110 fiberglass workers. A manual search of death certificates for 1011 rock/slag wool workers and 9060 fiberglass workers revealed only 10 death certificates with any mention of the word "mesothelioma." A subsequent review of medical records and pathology specimens for 3 of the 10 workers deemed two deaths as definitely not due to mesothelioma and one as having a 50% chance of being caused by mesothelioma. Two other deaths, for which only medical records were available, were given less than a 50% chance of being due to mesothelioma. Eight of the 10 decedents had potential occupational asbestos exposure inside or outside the MMVF industry. We also estimated the mortality risk from malignant mesothelioma in the cohort using two cause-of-death categorizations that included both malignant and benign coding rubrics. Using the more comprehensive scheme, we observed overall deficits in deaths among the total cohort and fiberglass workers and an overall excess among rock/slag wool workers. The excess in respiratory system cancer is largely a reflection of elevated lung cancer risks that we attributed mainly to confounding by smoking, to exposures outside the MMVF industry to agents such as asbestos, or to one or more of the several co-exposures present in many of the study plants (including asbestos). The second scheme, which focused on pleural mesothelioma in time periods when specific malignant mesothelioma coding rubrics were available, classified only one cohort death as being caused by malignant mesothelioma, compared with 2.19 expected deaths (local county comparison). We conclude that the overall mortality risk from malignant mesothelioma does not seem to be elevated in the US MMVF cohort.     

Trends in mortality from primary pleural tumor and incidence of pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a particularly serious situation

We present: a) an analysis of the past mortality from Primary Pleural Tumors (PPT) occurred in Italy between 1968 and 1992 by an age-cohort-period model, using a Poisson regression model, estimating the risk of dying by birth cohort, the Lifetime Cumulative risk (25-84 years) by birth cohort, the risk by calendar period and testing the full model (age-cohort-period effects); b) a summary of the incidence of mesothelioma as recorded in Italy by Cancer Registries and Mesothelioma Registries. The highest Lifetime Cumulative Risk of dying from TTP is recorded for the birth cohort 1946-'50 (6.2 per thousand among males, 1.64 among females). Whereas the risk by birth cohort becomes flat among females born after 1936, among males the risk is increasing up to the youngest birth cohorts. By calendar period, the highest risk of dying is observed in the last period (1991-'92). The inclusion in the full model of the calendar period term increases significantly the goodness-of-fit of the model among females, but not among males. The highest incidence of mesothelioma in both genders registered by 150 Cancer Registries all over the world is currently recorded among the population of Genoa and Trieste, where large ship-building plants are located. Even higher incidence mesothelioma rates have been recently recorded in other areas of Italy. The trend in PPT mortality in Italy could have been influenced, but not explained, by the increased awareness over time of the disease, but it fits well with the pattern occurring in most industrialized countries of western Europe, with the unprotected industrial use of asbestos which occurred in Italy, and also with the gender characteristics of the work-force employed in asbestos-exposing activities. A ban of asbestos use has been introduced in Italy in 1992. However, considering that asbestos seems to act as an initiator for mesothelioma, the trend in male mortality for PPT will not peak until two or three decades.     

Patterns of mortality among plumbers and pipefitters

A proportionate mortality ratio (PMR) study was undertaken of 7,121 members and retirees of the United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters in California who died in 1960-79. The PMR for all malignant neoplasms was 1.24, with a major contribution from lung cancers (PMR = 1.41). Lung cancer PMRs were consistently elevated, through the 20-year study period, across the pipe trades and within different birth cohorts. Sixteen mesothelioma deaths occurred, suggesting asbestos as a risk factor. PMRs for malignancies of the stomach, kidney, brain, and lymphopoietic system were also elevated, especially among plumbers. Chronic rheumatic heart disease, emphysema, liver cirrhosis, and all external causes of death were the major non-cancer causes with significantly elevated PMRs. There were significant deficits in diabetes mellitus, all pneumonia, chronic nephritis, and vascular lesions of the central nervous system (CNS). PMRs for successive birth cohorts among all study subjects revealed decreasing emphysema risk, suggesting previous reduction of a risk factor for this disease. Among plumbers, PMRs for death due to several non-respiratory malignancies showed an increasing trend with recency of birth cohort.     

Future trends of mesothelioma mortality in Japan based on a risk function

Mesothelioma is a malignancy with poor prognosis. It is chiefly caused by asbestos exposure and its symptoms can occur about 30-50 yr after the initial exposure. This study aims to predict the future trends in mesothelioma mortality in Japan using a method that is an alternative to the age-cohort model. Our approach is based on a risk function that links mesothelioma mortality combined with data pertaining to the population, size of the labor force, and quantity of asbestos imports. We projected the number of deaths occurring in individuals aged 50-89 for yr 2003-2050 using risk functions. Our results have indicated that mesothelioma mortality among Japanese people aged 50-89 yr will continue to increase until 2027 and reach a maximum of 66,327 deaths in the years 2003-2050. Our estimate has also suggested that the number of mesothelioma deaths could be significantly reduced if there were adequate compliance with the administrative level guidelines for occupational asbestos exposure.     

High coronary heart disease rates among Dutch women of the baby boom, born 1945-1959: age-cohort analysis and projection

BACKGROUND: After a steep decline in older generations, coronary heart disease mortality is stagnating in female cohorts born after the Second World War. We analysed past trends and predicted future health care needs for coronary heart disease in the Dutch population. METHODS: A loglinear age-cohort model relates numbers of deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease to sex, age, birth cohort and population size, and projects age-cohort changes over the future population. Population size, population forecasts and coronary heart disease mortality (period 1970-1999) are from vital statistics. Numbers of hospitalised acute coronary events are from the nationwide hospital register (period 1980-1999). RESULTS: Among men, the rate ratios of deaths and hospital admissions were, respectively, 0.21 (death) and 0.78 (survivors at discharge) in the cohorts born in the period 1948-1962 compared to the period 1918-1922. Among women, the same rate ratios were 0.41 and 1.89. The projection model predicts 22% less deaths from coronary heart disease and 22% more survivors of an infarction in 2015, among men. Among women, there will be 5% less deaths and 70% more survivors of an infarction, most of these being middle age members of the baby boom cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Stagnating all-cause mortality is correlated with an upward trend in coronary heart disease risk in the female baby boomers. Heart health care needs among middle-aged women will increase sharply. These changes are correlated to high lung cancer mortality and high smoking rates in these cohorts.     

Mortality among employees of an Ontario factory that manufactured construction materials using chrysotile asbestos and coal tar pitch

This paper describes mortality in a cohort of 324 men exposed to chrysotile asbestos and coal tar pitch used in the manufacture of electrical conduit pipe from a mixture of newsprint, bentonite, and asbestos. One death in a factory worker was attributed to pleural mesothelioma, and long-term employees experienced an increased risk of lung cancer (Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) 221; six deaths) and non-malignant respiratory disease (SMR 215; four deaths). In a case-control analysis, men whose jobs involved adding asbestos to the mix of raw materials were found to have a risk of lung cancer sevenfold higher (lower 95% confidence limit: 2.3) than men who had never worked at this job. Exposure to coal tar pitch is presumed to be responsible for the death of one worker from squamous cell carcinoma of the scrotum.     

Mortality from lung cancer and population risk attributable to asbestos in an asbestos cement manufacturing town in Italy

OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality from lung cancer and the risk attributable to asbestos separately for asbestos cement workers and for the general (non-occupationally exposed) population in the town of Casale Monferrato, where the largest Italian asbestos cement factory had been in operation in 1907-86. According to cancer registry data, in the same town the incidence of malignant mesothelioma in the general population is about 10 times higher than in comparable Italian provinces. METHOD: Decedents from lung cancer in 1989-95 were nominally identified in the list of decedents kept at the Local Health Authority of Casale Monferrato. Workers in the asbestos cement factory have been identified with a search in the nominal list of workers and the same was done for the wives of asbestos cement workers. These lists have already been used in cohort studies. Sensitivity and specificity of the linkage procedure with occupational activity in asbestos cement production have been evaluated in a previous study. Population at risk was estimated on the basis of official figures and on the results of the cohort study of asbestos cement workers. RESULTS: 227 deaths from lung cancer were included (184 men and 43 women). Among the asbestos cement workers mortalities were 234.0 x 100,000 person-years among men and 35.5 among women. Corresponding figures in the general (non- occupationally exposed) population in Casale Monferrato were 80.6 and 18.7. The rates in the general population were not higher than in the rest of the region. Attributable risk (AR) among the asbestos cement workers (and wives) is 67.5% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 56.8 to 78.2) for men and 51.3% (95% CI 14.9 to 87.8) among women. Population AR to occupational or paraoccupational exposure in the asbestos cement production is 18.3% (95% CI 11.1 to 25.6) among men and 10.1% (95% CI 0 to 24.6) among women. CONCLUSION: This work did not show an increase in mortality from lung cancer for the population not exposed occupationally, but a large excess was found among men and women occupationally exposed in asbestos cement production. The total burden of lung cancer due to occupational exposure to asbestos may be underestimated, as only occupational exposure in asbestos cement production was taken into consideration. Nevertheless even a single factory can be responsible for a considerable proportion of deaths from lung cancer in a population.

 

     

Pleural mesothelioma in Sweden: an analysis of the incidence according to the use of asbestos

OBJECTIVE: To investigate if the preventive measures taken to reduce the occupational exposure to asbestos have resulted in a decreased incidence of pleural mesothelioma in Sweden. METHODS: The incidence of pleural mesothelioma between 1958 and 1995 for birth cohorts born between 1885 and 1964 was investigated. The cases of pleural mesothelioma were identified through the Swedish Cancer Register. RESULTS: In 1995, around 80 cases of pleural mesothelioma could be attributed to occupational exposure to asbestos. There is an increasing incidence in more recent birth cohorts in men. The incidence was considerably higher in the male cohort born between 1935 and 1944 than in men born earlier. CONCLUSIONS: The annual incidence of pleural mesothelioma attributable to occupational exposure to asbestos is today larger than all fatal occupational accidents in Sweden. The first asbestos regulation was adopted in 1964 and in the mid 1970s imports of raw asbestos decreased drastically. Yet there is no obvious indication that the preventive measures have decreased the risk of pleural mesothelioma. The long latency indicates that the effects of preventive measures in the 1970s could first be evaluated around 2005.     

A cohort study on mortality among wives of workers in the asbestos cement industry in Casale Monferrato, Italy.

The study investigates mortality from cancer and other diseases in a cohort of wives of asbestos cement workers in Casale Monferrato (northwest Italy). After the exclusion of women with an occupational record in the asbestos cement industry, the cohort comprised 1964 women. Their domestic exposure was estimated according to their husbands' periods of employment in the plant: 1740 had a period of domestic exposure whereas the remaining 224 married an asbestos cement worker only after he definitely stopped his activity in the asbestos cement plant; these have, therefore, been considered as unexposed. The cohort of wives was constructed entirely through official records in the town offices and is both exhaustive and unaffected by recall bias. At the end of follow up (1988) 1669 women were alive, 270 were dead and 25 (1.2%) were untraced. Main mortality analyses were only up to age 79 to reduce the misclassification of causes of death. Expected mortality was based on local rates. Mortality analyses were limited to the period 1965-88 due to the availability of local rates: in that period 210 deaths occurred among women with domestic exposure v 229.1 expected. There were four deaths from pleural tumours (one diagnosed as mesothelioma at necropsis) and six from lung cancer v. 0.5 and 4.0 expected respectively. Two further cases of mesothelioma were diagnosed by histological examination after the end of follow up. None of the three wives with histologically diagnosed mesothelioma had been engaged in industrial activities. Corresponding information for the other three cases could not be traced.     

Mortality trends in systemic sclerosis in France and USA, 1980–1998: an age-period-cohort analysis

We compared trends of Systemic Sclerosis (SS) mortality in France and the USA over the period 1980–1998 and used an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model to adjust on the age at death of SS patients. All deaths coded with SS as an underlying primary or secondary cause in the national French and US mortality databases from 1980 to 1998 were included in the analysis. SS age-standardized mortality rates increased from 7.2 to 10.3/million in US women (+43%), and from 3 to 3.9/million in French women (+22%). Most of the increase occurred in senior women. In contrast, SS age-standardized death rates remained stable among US men (around 3/million) and French men (around 2/million). In US women, the APC analysis shows a growing cohort effect between 1900 and 1940, tending to stabilize for following cohorts. Similar findings were obtained to a lesser extent in French women. In conclusion, SS mortality rates increased by more than 40% between 1980 and 1998 in the USA, mostly in women born between 1900 and 1940. Whether these trends reflect rising incidence of SS need to be documented. The observed dissimilarity between genders and countries underline that environmental exposure and gender-related factors likely play a major etiological role. Stabilization in the following birth cohorts suggests that the increase of mortality observed since 1980 may slow down in the near future.     

Predictions of mortality from mesothelial tumours in asbestos factory workers.

Using the accumulated data on deaths from mesothelial tumours among cohorts of male and female factory workers at a London asbestos textile factory, the mortality from this cause up to the year 2000 AD has been predicted. The limitations of the methods used are pointed out, but it is estimated that for men the mortality due to mesothelial tumours will be between 7% and 11% of the total mortality and somewhat higher for women. The highest number of deaths from mesothelial tumours will occur during the 1980s, thereafter the numbers will decline because of the decreasing size of the cohort resulting from general mortality.     

Association between gross domestic product throughout the life course and old-age mortality across birth cohorts: parallel analyses of seven European countries, 1950-1999

Mortality levels of national populations have often been studied in relation to levels of gross domestic product (GDP) at time of death. Following the life course perspective, we assessed whether old-age mortality levels for subsequent cohorts are differentially associated with GDP levels prevailing at different ages of the cohorts. We used all-cause and cause-specific mortality data by sex, age at death (65-99), year at death (1950-1999), and year of birth (1865-1924) for Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Trends in national GDP per capita between 1865 and 1999 were reconstructed from historical national accounts data. Through Poisson regression analyses, we determined for each country both univariate and multivariate associations across five-year birth cohorts between mortality and GDP levels prevailing at time of death, and at earlier ages of the cohorts (i.e. 0-5, 6-19, 20-49, and 50-64). For the subsequent cohorts, levels of GDP at time of death were strongly inversely associated with all-cause mortality, especially among women, and among men in England and Wales, Finland, and France. In most countries, stronger associations were observed with GDP levels prevailing at earlier ages of the cohorts. After control for GDP at time of death, these associations remained. An independent association of GDP at earlier ages of the cohort was also observed for cause-specific mortality. The associations were negative for ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and stomach cancer. They were positive for prostate cancer, breast cancer, COPD (women), and lung cancer (women). GDP prevailing at ages 20-49 (men) and ages 50-64 (women) had the largest associations with old-age mortality. These findings suggest an independent, mostly negative effect of GDP prevailing at earlier ages of subsequent cohorts on old-age mortality. Socio-economic circumstances during adulthood and middle age seem more important in determining old-age mortality trends than those during infancy or childhood.     

Mortality due to smoking in the Netherlands: 1.2 million tobacco-related deaths between 1950 and 2015

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the medical consequences of the tobacco use in the Netherlands for the past 50 years and the near future. DESIGN: Theoretical study based on the national death records and published risks by cause of death of tobacco use. METHOD: Observed lung cancer mortality (1950-1999) was related to birth cohort and age by a statistical model (according to Peto), and then projected into the near future. The smoking intensity was defined as the difference between the expected lung-cancer mortality if no one smoked and the observed lung-cancer mortality. Using this smoking intensity and published risks for other smoking-related causes of death, the model provided estimates of smoking-related mortality by age, sex and cause of death. RESULTS: In 1999, 18% (women) and 32% (men) of all mortality before the age of 70 was attributable to smoking. If no one had smoked, Dutch life expectancy for men and women would have been 3 years and 1 year higher, respectively. Between 1950 and 1999, 13% of all deaths were caused by smoking, the large majority (> 90%) of which occurred among men. Between 2000 and 2015, slightly more deaths are to be attributed to smoking (14%), 62% of which will be among men. In 2015, women will have caught up with men in terms of absolute numbers of lung-cancer mortality. CONCLUSION: Around one quarter of premature deaths were caused by smoking. In the near future, women of the baby-boom generation will have reached middle age and the highest (relative) smoking-related risks. It is important that clinical practice takes this increased risk of disease into account among middle-aged women who smoke.