The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model

A simulation model is developed for Vietnam to project smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality. The model examines independently and as a package the effects of five types of tobacco control policies: tax increases, clean air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, and youth access policies. Predictions suggest that the largest reductions in smoking rates will result from implementing a comprehensive tobacco control policy package. Significant inroads may be achieved through tax increases. A media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates. Tobacco control policies have the potential to make large dents in smoking rates, which in turn could lead to many lives saved. In the absence of these measures, deaths from smoking will increase. The model also helps to identify information gaps pertinent both to modeling and policy-making.     

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: results from the California tobacco policy simulation model

Tobacco control policies are examined utilizing a simulation model for California, the state with the longest running comprehensive program. We assess the impact of the California Tobacco Control Program (CTCP) and surrounding price changes on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Modeling begins in 1988 and progresses chronologically to 2004, and considers four types of policies (taxes, mass media, clean air laws, and youth access policies) independently and as a package. The model is validated against existing smoking prevalence estimates. The difference in trends between predicted smoking rates from the model and other commonly used estimates of smoking prevalence for the overall period were generally small. The model also predicted some important changes in trend, which occurred with changes in policy. The California SimSmoke model estimates that tobacco control policies reduced smoking rates in California by an additional 25% relative to the level that they would have been if policies were kept at their 1988 level. By 2004, the model attributes 59% of the reduction to price increases, 28% of the overall effect to media policies, 11% to clean air laws, and only a small percent to youth access policies. The model estimates that over 5000 lives will be saved in the year 2010 alone as a result of the CTCP and industry-initiated price increases, and that over 50,000 lives were saved over the period 1988-2010. Tobacco control policies implemented as comprehensive tobacco control strategies have significantly impacted smoking rates. Further tax increases should lead to additional lives saved, and additional policies may result in further impacts on smoking rates, and consequently on smoking-attributable health outcomes in the population.     

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model.

OBJECTIVES: To compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001. METHODS: A simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified using data for Argentina on population, fertility and mortality, smoking prevalence, and tobacco control policies in effect between 2001 and 2004. We used the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation model (ATPSM) to consider the effect on smoking prevalence of changes in taxes and prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs, and youth access policies on smoking initiation and cessation rates. Smoking prevalence and relative risks of smoking were used to estimate smoking-attributable mortality. The ATPSM was used to project smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths during the period 2001-2034. RESULTS: The largest reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality were predicted for a comprehensive tobacco control policy package, but relative reductions of as much as 30% were also predicted for large tax increases. Adding a media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans, and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates by up to 45% by the year 2034, and would save almost 16 000 lives per year. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control policies can substantially reduce smoking rates, which can save many lives. Without such policies, deaths from smoking, and associated medical costs, will increase. The ATPSM is expected to provide guidance in filling the most important information gaps pertinent to both modeling and policy-making in Argentina, e.g., the lack of data on initiation and cessation rates, and the need for studies on the impact of policies. Similar models might be developed for other Latin American countries.     

Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: While Italy has implemented some tobacco control policies over the last few decades, which resulted in a decreased smoking prevalence, there is still considerable scope to strengthen tobacco control policies consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) policy guidelines. The present study aims to evaluate the effect of past and project the effect of future tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality in Italy. METHODS: To assess, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies, we used the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy. The model uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Italy. RESULTS: Significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tobacco price increases, high intensity media campaigns, comprehensive cessation treatment program, strong health warnings, stricter smoke-free air regulations and advertising bans, and youth access laws. With a comprehensive approach, the smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 12 % soon after the policies are in place, increasing to a 30 % reduction in the next twenty years and a 34 % reduction by 30 years in 2040. Without effective tobacco control policies, a total of almost 300 thousand lives will be prematurely lost due to smoking by the year 2040. CONCLUSION: Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model helps identify information gaps in surveillance and evaluation schemes that will promote the effectiveness of future tobacco control policy in Italy.     

Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico

We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.     

Upstream healthy public policy: lessons from the battle of tobacco.

Many consider public health and politics to be entirely separate worlds. Public health activities are generally well-motivated by public interest, perceived as value-free, scientific, and devoid of partisan preference. Politics, in contrast, can be viewed as a distasteful activity involving self-interested pressure groups, misuse of state power, and influence of money on national decisions. Public health and politics are inappropriate bedfellows if politics is reduced to party politics. Politics, of course, involves more than just party activities; it concerns the structure, distribution, and effects of power in society. Which groups pattern the social order? What are their sources of influence? How do they retain privileged status? What social effects result from the policies these groups shape? Viewed in this broader sense, politics is essential for effective public health and thus is the inescapable context of public health interventions. To disregard sociopolitical determinants of health is to relegate public health to prevention and promotion of individual risk behaviors. If public health is to be more successful in the 21st century, it must comprehend the magnitude of the forces against it and the strategies used to engineer its defeat. Public health interventions in the new millennium must be appropriate to their sociocultural context.     

The effects of tobacco control policies on smoking rates: a tobacco control scorecard.

This article reviews studies of the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking rates with the aim of providing guidance on the importance of different policies. Based on past studies, we estimate the magnitude of effects of major tobacco control policies, how their effects depend on the manner in which the policies are implemented, the relationship between the different policies, and the barriers to implementation. The most successful campaigns have implemented a combination of tobacco control policies. Of those policies, substantial evidence indicates that higher taxes and clean air laws can have a large impact on smoking rates. Evidence also indicates that media campaigns when implemented with other policies are important. Research on greater access to treatment and telephone support hotlines indicates a strong potential to increase quit rates and may be important in affecting heavier smokers. Direct evidence on the effects of advertising bans and health warnings is mixed, but these policies appear to be important in some of the countries that have had success in reducing smoking rates. School education programs and limits on retail sales are not likely to have much impact if implemented alone, but may be more important when combined with other policies.     

Impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on monthly adult smoking prevalence

Objectives. We sought to assess the impact of several tobacco control policies and televised antismoking advertising on adult smoking prevalence.Methods. We used a population survey in which smoking prevalence was measured each month from 1995 through 2006. Time-series analysis assessed the effect on smoking prevalence of televised antismoking advertising (with gross audience rating points [GRPs] per month), cigarette costliness, monthly sales of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and bupropion, and smoke-free restaurant laws.Results. Increases in cigarette costliness and exposure to tobacco control media campaigns significantly reduced smoking prevalence. We found a 0.3-percentage-point reduction in smoking prevalence by either exposing the population to televised antismoking ads an average of almost 4 times per month (390 GRPs) or by increasing the costliness of a pack of cigarettes by 0.03% of gross average weekly earnings. Monthly sales of NRT and bupropion, exposure to NRT advertising, and smoke-free restaurant laws had no detectable impact on smoking prevalence.Conclusions. Increases in the real price of cigarettes and tobacco control mass media campaigns broadcast at sufficient exposure levels and at regular intervals are critical for reducing population smoking prevalence.Population-wide interventions that can reduce adult smoking prevalence are important for curbing the pandemic of tobacco-related disease.1^–3 However, evaluating the effects of tobacco control policies and mass media interventions on populations is difficult.4^,5 Generally, there are few comparable control populations to which policy or media interventions are not delivered. Tobacco policies and media campaigns often co-occur, complicating assessment of the relative contribution of each. In addition, most studies in which smoking prevalence is the outcome measure rely on annual population surveys to track change over time, despite policy and media interventions being generally implemented throughout the year, and at differing strengths relative to the time of survey administration. Small or transient impacts on smoking prevalence are difficult to detect and may be underestimated.Over the past decade, the Australian population has been exposed to changes in several tobacco control policies, including changes in taxes on tobacco products resulting in increases in the real price of cigarettes, increasing availability of pharmaceutical smoking cessation products such as nicotine replacement therapies (NRT) and bupropion, and the introduction of smoke-free restaurant laws. In addition, there has been considerable variation in exposure to public health–sponsored mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical advertising for NRT. We have assessed the independent effect of each tobacco control policy and type of media campaign with a data series in which self-reported smoking prevalence was measured every month over a period of 11 years. This method has the advantage over annual population surveys of more closely matching the timing and extent of policy implementation and media exposure to smoking prevalence, and it has the ability to examine the pattern of change in prevalence, such as the lag time to a measurable impact and the duration of influence.     

School tobacco control policies related to students' smoking and attitudes toward smoking: national survey results, 1999-2000.

The belief that schools can play a powerful role in preventing tobacco use among adolescents has led to the implementation of various tobacco-related policies and practices. This study examines the association between school policies regarding monitoring student behavior, severity of action taken for infraction of policies, and tobacco use by staff, and student smoking behavior and attitudes. Data on students' smoking behavior and attitudes were obtained from the 1999 and 2000 Monitoring the Future surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade students. Data on school policies and practices were obtained from administrators in those same schools. Hierarchical analyses using HLM5 were conducted. Strictness of monitoring was significantly negatively associated with daily cigarette use by middle school students. Permitting staff to smoke was significantly positively associated with students' daily cigarette use and negatively with their disapproval of cigarette use. Policy implications are discussed.     

A simulation model of policies directed at treating tobacco use and dependence.

OBJECTIVES: The authors develop a simulation model to predict the effects on quit rates and cost-effectiveness of different smoking treatment policies. METHODS: A decision theoretic model of quit behavior is first developed that incorporates the decision to quit and the choice of treatment. A policy model then examines the effect on quit attempts and quit rates of policies to cover the costs of different combinations of treatments and to require health care providers to conduct brief interventions. The model incorporates substitution between treatments and effects of policies on treatment effectiveness. The cost per quit is also calculated for each policy. RESULTS: The model of quit behavior predicts a 1-year quit rate of 4.5% for the population of smokers. The policy model predicts a 37% increase in quit rates from a policy that combines mandated brief interventions with coverage of all proven tobacco treatments. Smaller effects are predicted from policies that provide more restricted coverage of treatments, especially those limited to behavioral treatment. Payments for brief interventions alone increase quit rates by about 7%. Brief intervention and behavioral therapy policies had lower costs per quit but yield substantially fewer additional quits than policies that cover pharmacotherapy. There is, however, considerable variation around these estimates depending on assumptions about the effects of policy on treatment use, substitution between treatments, and treatment effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Tobacco treatment policies, especially those with broad and flexible coverage, have the potential to substantially increase smoking quit rates. However, further research is needed on the effect of payment policies on the use and effectiveness of tobacco treatments.     

The role of public policies in reducing mental health status disparities for people of color

Ethnic and racial disparities in mental health are driven by social factors such as housing, education, and income. Many of these social factors are different for minorities than they are for whites. Policies that address gaps in these social factors therefore can address mental health status disparities. We analyze three policies and their impact on minorities: the Individuals with Disability Education Act, Section 8 housing vouchers, and the Earned Income Tax Credit. Two of the three policies appear to have been effective in reducing social inequalities between whites and minorities. Expansion of public policies can be the mechanism to eliminate mental health status disparities for minorities.     

A model to predict the results of changes in smoking behaviour on smoking prevalence

BACKGROUND: Data are available on the prevalence of smoking states (never, current and ex). However, data on behaviour change rates (starting - never to current, quitting - current to ex and lapsing - ex to current) are not readily available and cannot be simply derived from or related to prevalence data. METHOD: A model was constructed to relate prevalence of smoking states to behaviour change rates. It was populated with prevalence of smoking status taken from the General Household Survey together with population structure, age- and sex-specific death rates, and birth rates for England and Wales. This model could be used to calculate past behaviour change given observed prevalence of smoking states or future prevalence of smoking given predicted rates of behaviour change. RESULTS: To fit data it was necessary to assume that as they age some ex smokers reclassify themselves as never smokers. In the age band 16-19 years about 9 percent of never smokers start smoking, and about 5 percent of current smokers quit. In the age band 20-24 years the corresponding figures for starting are about 4 percent in males and 2 percent in females, and for quitting about 2 percent in both. In older age bands the percentages starting are zero or less than zero (indicating reclassifying), and the percentage quitting rises with age. Net lapsing (shift from ex to current) occurred very infrequently and is quantitatively unimportant. If the current starting, quitting and lapsing rates are maintained the Smoking kills target will not be met. Future prevalence of smoking under different scenarios is examined. CONCLUSION: The model is useful in calculating the proportions changing smoking state from serial cross-sectional data on prevalence and for predicting future prevalence.     

The voice of the public in public health policy and planning: the role of public judgment

Community involvement with public health planning and implementation are vital to improving community health. There are a variety of community health models that are available. We describe these four models from the perspective of how they involve the broader community. These models are evaluated from a different perspective about linking the community and politics and agencies, that involves naming issues, framing options, public deliberation and public acting. We suggest ways that these models can be further refined to connect citizens to the processes that we use for community health improvement.     

The power of policy: the relationship of smoking policy to adolescent smoking.

This study examined the effects of smoking policy on 4,807 adolescents in 23 schools over a two-county area in California. Amounts and prevalence rates of adolescent smoking were measured with a self-report survey and a biochemical measure; school smoking policy was measured with two independent surveys of school staff. Policy effects were evaluated with multiple and logistic regression analyses controlling for school-level socioeconomic status and environmental support for teaching and administration. Of the 23 schools, 100 percent had a formal written and regularly enforced policy component restricting student smoking on school grounds, 94 percent restricted students leaving school grounds, 65 percent restricted smoking near school grounds, and 57 percent had a smoking prevention education plan. Schools with policies having all four versus less than four components, high versus low emphasis on prevention, and a low versus high emphasis on cessation reported lower amounts of smoking in the last week and in the last 24 hours. Punitive consequences of policy violation had no effect. Results were compared to school staff observations of adolescent smoking, and school archival records of student smoking violations in the last year. Results suggest that school smoking policy is associated with decreased amounts of smoking in adolescents.     

The role of health education in the policy change process: Lessons from tobacco control

The ‘new public health’ perspective urges a return to an agenda centred on the modification of the determinants of health, with a special emphasis on public policies. This enthusiasm for strategies focusing on the modification of policies may lead, however, to declining interest in health education interventions. The aim of the present analysis is to reflect on the role of health education in the process leading to the adoption of ‘Healthy Public Policies’ by drawing on theories from political science: Hall's Policy Paradigm approach and Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith's Advocacy Coalition Framework. Rejecting the traditional perspective that political actors’ choices and preferences are exclusively framed by an economic rationality, these two frameworks integrate the influence of ideas and values in the policy process. Applying these analytical frameworks to the case of tobacco control, we found that the policy change process is constrained by the worldview of a broad group of actors from the political and social spheres and that the dominant elite's worldview structures such a process. In addition, policies are derived from the ‘policy learning process’ and from events external to the policy domain. We conclude that health education through its health advocacy role and the sensitization of the public is a critical ingredient of the policy process. However, health educators should take part in the process not only by disseminating technical or scientific arguments but also by bringing forward arguments that take into account the fundamental values defended by the policy-makers and the public.