Global mortality trends and patterns in older women

Objective

To describe mortality patterns in women older than 50 years in light of the growth, seen in almost all countries, in the absolute number of females in this age group and in the proportion of the female population comprising older women.

Methods

National death record data and World Health Organization estimates of life expectancy and causes of death in women older than 50 years were analysed. Projections of trends in mortality, by cause, at older ages were also made.

Findings

In both developed and developing countries, the leading causes of death among older women were cardiovascular diseases and cancers. In countries with death registration data, cardiovascular and (to a lesser extent) cancer mortality appears to have declined in older women in recent decades and this decline has resulted in improved life expectancy at age 50. If these trends continue, deaths in older women are still expected to increase in number because of population growth and ageing.

Conclusion

Noncommunicable diseases, especially cardiovascular diseases and cancers, are expected to cause an increasing share of women’s deaths in low- and middle-income countries owing to the ageing of the population and to reductions in child and maternal deaths. Health systems must adjust accordingly, perhaps by drawing on lessons from high-income countries that have succeeded in reducing mortality from noncommunicable diseases.     

Use of verbal autopsy to determine mortality patterns in an urban slum in Kolkata, India

Objective

To define mortality patterns in an urban slum in Kolkata, India, in the context of a cholera and typhoid fever project.

Methods

In a well-defined population that was under surveillance for 18 months, we followed a dynamic cohort of 63 788 residents whose households were visited monthly by community health workers to identify deaths. Trained physicians performed verbal autopsies and experienced senior physicians assigned the primary cause of death according to the International classification of diseases, 10th edition. We tabulated causes of death in accordance with Global Burden of Disease 2000 categories and assessed overall and cause-specific mortality rates per age group and gender.

Findings

During 87 921 person–years of follow-up, we recorded 544 deaths. This gave an overall mortality rate of 6.2 per 1000 person–years. We assigned a cause to 89% (482/544) of the deaths. The leading causes of death, in descending order, were cardiovascular diseases (especially among adults aged over 40 years), cancer, respiratory ailments and digestive disorders. Most deaths in children under 5 years of age were caused by tuberculosis, respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases.

Conclusion

Although the most common causes of death in children were infectious, non-communicable diseases were predominant among adults. There is a need for continuing interventions against infectious diseases in addition to new and innovative strategies to combat non-infectious conditions.     

Peer Reviewed: Addressing the Threat of Chronic Diseases in Oman

Introduction

The overall health status of the Omani population has evolved over the past 4 decades from one dominated by infectious disease to one in which chronic disease poses the main challenge. Along with a marked reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases, improvements in health care and socioeconomic status have resulted in sharp declines in infant and early childhood mortality and dramatic increases in life expectancy.

Methods

Focusing on the time period from 1990 through 2005, we reviewed relevant epidemiological studies and reports and examined socioeconomic indicators to assess the impact of the changing disease profile on Oman''s economy and its health care infrastructure.

Results

Over the next 25 years, the elderly population of Oman will increase 6-fold, and the urbanization rate is expected to reach 86%. Currently, more than 75% of the disease burden in Oman is attributable to noncommunicable diseases, with cardiovascular disease as the leading cause of death. The distribution of chronic diseases and related risk factors among the general population is similar to that of industrialized nations: 12% of the population has diabetes, 30% is overweight, 20% is obese, 41% has high cholesterol, and 21% has the metabolic syndrome.

Conclusion

Unless reforms are introduced to the current health care system, chronic diseases will constitute a major drain on Oman''s human and financial resources, threatening the advances in health and longevity achieved over the past 4 decades.     

Smoking-attributable mortality in Morocco: results of a prevalence-based study in Casablanca

Background

Tobacco control measurements’ had little impact on smoking prevalence in Morocco. The aim of this study is to provide first data on smoking attributable mortality in Morocco.

Method

The Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Morbidity and Economic Costs (SAMMEC) software was used to estimate the smoking attributable mortality (SAM) in Casablanca region in 2012. Smoking prevalence and mortality data of people aged 35 years or older were obtained from the national survey on tobacco “Marta” and from Health Ministry Mortality System, respectively.

Results

Of the 5261deaths of persons aged 35 years and older, 508 (9.7%) were attributable to cigarette smoking. This total represents 16.2% of all male deaths (n =448) and 2.0% (n =80) of all female deaths in this region. The leading four causes of smoking attributable deaths were lung cancer (177), chronic airways obstruction (76), ischemic heart disease (39), and cerebrovascular disease (31).

Conclusion

Tobacco use caused one out of six deaths in Casablanca in 2012. Four leading causes (lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and chronic airways obstruction,) accounted for 51.6% of SAM. Effective and comprehensive actions must be taken in order to slow this epidemic in Morocco.     

Local-level mortality surveillance in resource-limited settings: a case study of Cape Town highlights disparities in health

Objective

To identify the leading causes of mortality and premature mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, and its subdistricts, and to compare levels of mortality between subdistricts.

Methods

Cape Town mortality data for the period 2001–2006 were analysed by age, cause of death and sex. Cause-of-death codes were aggregated into three main cause groups: (i) pre-transitional causes (e.g. communicable diseases, maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies), (ii) noncommunicable diseases and (iii) injuries. Premature mortality was calculated in years of life lost (YLLs). Population estimates for the Cape Town Metro district were used to calculate age-specific rates per 100 000 population, which were then age-standardized and compared across subdistricts.

Findings

The pattern of mortality in Cape Town reflects the quadruple burden of disease observed in the national cause-of-death profile, with HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases, injuries and noncommunicable diseases all accounting for a significant proportion of deaths. HIV/AIDS has replaced homicide as the leading cause of death. HIV/AIDS, homicide, tuberculosis and road traffic injuries accounted for 44% of all premature mortality. Khayelitsha, the poorest subdistrict, had the highest levels of mortality for all main cause groups.

Conclusion

Local mortality surveillance highlights the differential needs of the population of Cape Town and provides a wealth of data to inform planning and implementation of targeted interventions. Multisectoral interventions will be required to reduce the burden of disease.     

Measuring NHS performance 1990-2009 using amenable mortality: interpret with care

Objectives

The new performance framework for the NHS in England will assess how well health services are preventing people from dying prematurely, based on the concept of mortality amenable to healthcare. We ask how the different parts of the UK would be assessed had this measure been in use over the past two decades, a period that began with somewhat lower levels of health expenditure in England and Wales than in Scotland and Northern Ireland but which, after 1999, saw the gap closing.

Design

We assessed the change in age-standardized death rates in England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in two time periods: 1990–1999 and 1999–2009. Mortality data by five-year age group, sex and cause of death for the years 1990 to 2009 were analysed using age-standardized death rates from causes considered amenable to healthcare. The absolute change was assessed by fitting linear regression and the relative change was estimated as the average annual percent decline for the two periods.

Setting

United Kingdom.

Participants

Not applicable.

Main outcome measures

Mortality from causes amenable to healthcare.

Results

Between 1990 and 1999 deaths amenable to medical care had been falling more slowly in England and Wales than in Scotland and Northern Ireland. However the rate of decline in England and Wales increased after 1999 when funding of the NHS there increased. Examination of individual causes of death reveals a complex picture, with some improvements, such as in breast cancer deaths, occurring simultaneously across the UK, reflecting changes in diagnosis and treatment that took place in each nation at the same time, while others varied.

Conclusions

Amenable mortality is a useful indicator of health system performance but there are many methodological issues that must be taken into account when interpreting it once it is adopted for routine use in England.     

How Can the National Burden of Parkinson’s Disease Comorbidity and Mortality Be Estimated for the Japanese Population?

Background

Good medical care results in long survival for patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD). However, little is known about the burden of PD comorbidity and mortality in Japan. This is the first study to examine comorbid diseases of PD decedents and extrapolate PD death rates from multiple-cause coding mortality data for the total population of Japan.

Methods

Data for 4589 certified deaths due to PD as the underlying cause of death (ICD-10 code: G20) were obtained from the 2008 Japanese vital statistics. Of those, comorbidities listed in the death certificates of 477 randomly selected decedents were analyzed. All diseases or conditions mentioned on death certificates were counted and ranked in descending order of frequency. The death rates (per 100 000 population) from PD were calculated using Japanese National Vital Statistics. The estimated rate of deaths with PD was extrapolated using US death data from a multiple-cause coding system, as no such system is available in Japan, with adjustment for the difference in disease structure between countries.

Results

Average age at death was 80.9 years. The top 5 comorbid diseases ranked as contributory causes of death were cerebrovascular diseases (4.0%), dementia (3.8%), diabetes mellitus (3.6%), malignant neoplasm (2.5%), and heart diseases (2.3%). Overall, the death rates from and with PD were 3.6 and 5.8, respectively.

Conclusions

Analysis restricted to data from the underlying-cause coding system underestimated the national burden of PD comorbidity and mortality. Use of death certificates and multiple-cause mortality data complement the existing system.Key words: Parkinson’s disease, comorbidity, mortality, causes of death, Japan     

Peer Reviewed: Mortality of Urban Aboriginal Adults in Canada, 1991–2001

Objective

To compare mortality patterns for urban Aboriginal adults with those of urban non-Aboriginal adults.

Methods

Using the 1991–2001 Canadian census mortality follow-up study, our study tracked mortality to December 31, 2001, among a 15% sample of adults, including 16 300 Aboriginal and 2 062 700 non-Aboriginal persons residing in urban areas on June 4, 1991. The Aboriginal population was defined by ethnic origin (ancestry), Registered Indian status and/or membership in an Indian band or First Nation, since the 1991 census did not collect information on Aboriginal identity.

Results

Compared to urban non-Aboriginal men and women, remaining life expectancy at age 25 years was 4.7 years and 6.5 years shorter for urban Aboriginal men and women, respectively. Mortality rate ratios for urban Aboriginal men and women were particularly elevated for alcohol-related deaths, motor vehicle accidents and infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS. For most causes of death, urban Aboriginal adults had higher mortality rates compared to other urban residents. Socio-economic status played an important role in explaining these disparities.

Conclusion

Results from this study help fill a data gap on mortality information of urban Aboriginal people of Canada.

Keywords

Aboriginal people, First Nations, Métis, Inuit, North American Indians, age-standardized mortality rates, mortality rate, life expectancy     

Hypertension and diabetes-related morbidity and mortality trends in a municipality in the countryside of S?o Paulo

Objectives:

to identify the main causes for hospital admissions and deaths related to systemic arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus (DM), and to analyze morbidity and mortality trends, in a municipality in São Paulo''s countryside, by comparing two three-years periods, 2002 to 2004 and 2010 to 2012.

Methods:

cross-sectional study which used secondary data regarding deaths from the Information System on Mortality and concerning hospital admissions from the DataSus Hospital Information System. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted.

Results:

from 2002 to 2012, 325,439 people were admitted to hospitals, 14.7% of them due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) and 0.7% due to DM. The deaths distributed as the following: 29,027 deaths (31.5%) were due to CSD; 8.06% due to cerebrovascular diseases (CVD); and 2.75% due to DM. There was a significant association between admittance and death causes and patients'' gender and age in the three-year periods (p<0.001). The highest lethality in hospital admissions was found to be due to CVD (10%). That trend showed that mortality rates dropped, younger patients were admitted due to DM, and older patients were admitted due to CVD - they were more often females.

Conclusion:

the main causes for hospital admissions were the CSDs; main mortality causes were the CVDs in hypertensive and diabetic women. Those findings can back public policies which prioritize the promotion of health.     

Peer Reviewed: Overreporting of Deaths From Coronary Heart Disease in New York City Hospitals, 2003

Introduction

New York City has one of the highest reported death rates from coronary heart disease in the United States. We sought to measure the accuracy of this rate by examining death certificates.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional validation study by using a random sample of death certificates that recorded in-hospital deaths in New York City from January through June 2003, stratified by neighborhoods with low, medium, and high coronary heart disease death rates. We abstracted data from hospital records, and an independent, blinded medical team reviewed these data to validate cause of death. We computed a comparability ratio (coronary heart disease deaths recorded on death certificates divided by validated coronary heart disease deaths) to quantify agreement between death certificate determination and clinical judgment.

Results

Of 491 sampled death certificates for in-hospital deaths, medical charts were abstracted and reviewed by the expert panel for 444 (90%). The comparability ratio for coronary heart disease deaths among decedents aged 35 to 74 years was 1.51, indicating that death certificates overestimated coronary heart disease deaths in this age group by 51%. The comparability ratio increased with age to 1.94 for decedents aged 75 to 84 years and to 2.37 for decedents aged 85 years or older.

Conclusion

Coronary heart disease appears to be substantially overreported as a cause of death in New York City among in-hospital deaths.     

Improving mortality data in Jordan: a 10 year review

Problem

Before 2003 there was substantial underreporting of deaths in Jordan. The death notification form did not comply with World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and information on the cause of death was often missing, incomplete or inaccurate.

Approach

A new mortality surveillance system to determine the causes of death was implemented in 2003 and a unit for coding causes of death was established at the ministry of health.

Local setting

Jordan is a middle-income country with a population of 6.4 million people. Approximately 20 000 deaths were registered per year between 2005 and 2011.

Relevant changes

In 2001, the ministry of health organized the first meeting on Jordan’s mortality system, which yielded a five-point plan to improve mortality statistics. Using the recommendations produced from this meeting, in 2003 the ministry of health initiated a mortality statistics improvement project in collaboration with international partners. Jordan has continued to improve its mortality reporting system, with annual reporting since 2004. Reports are based on more than 70% of reported deaths. The quality of cause-of-death information has improved, with only about 6% of deaths allocated to symptoms and ill-defined conditions – a substantial decrease from the percentage before 2001 (40%). Mortality information is now submitted to WHO following international standards.

Lessons learnt

After 10 years of mortality surveillance in Jordan, the reporting has improved and the information has been used by various health programmes throughout Jordan.     

Infant mortality in the Flemish Region of Belgium 1999-2008: a time-to-event analysis

Background

When calculating life expectancy, it is usually assumed that deaths are uniformly distributed within each of the age intervals. As most of the infant deaths are neonatal deaths, this calls for a better assessment for that age group.

Methods

The Flemish unified death and birth certificates database for all calendar years between 1999 and 2008 was used. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis on a yearly basis was performed to assess the mean time-to-event and to compare survival curves between both genders.

Results

Over the last years, a slight though not steady decrease of the infant mortality rate is observed. In 2008, the probability among live births of dying before their first anniversary is 4.6‰ in boys and 3.5‰ in girls. The large majority (about 85%) of these have died in their year of birth. The mean survival time of deaths in their year of birth was found to centre around 1 month (about 30 days), which results in a ''mean proportion of the calendar year lived'' (k1) close to 0.09. Among those who died in the year after their year of birth yet before their first anniversary, no such concentration in time of the deaths is observed. Differences between the gender groups are small and generally not statistically significant.

Conclusion

Statistics Belgium, the federal statistics office, imputes a value for k1 equal to 0.1 for infant deaths in their year of birth when calculating life expectancy. Our data fully support this value. We think such refinement is generally feasible in calculating life expectancy.     

Vital Signs: Avoidable Deaths from Heart Disease,Stroke, and Hypertensive Disease — United States, 2001–2010

Background

Deaths attributed to lack of preventive health care or timely and effective medical care can be considered avoidable. In this report, avoidable causes of death are either preventable, as in preventing cardiovascular events by addressing risk factors, or treatable, as in treating conditions once they have occurred. Although various definitions for avoidable deaths exist, studies have consistently demonstrated high rates in the United States. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of U.S. deaths (approximately 800,000 per year) and many of them (e.g., heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive deaths among persons aged <75 years) are potentially avoidable.

Methods

National Vital Statistics System mortality data for the period 2001–2010 were analyzed. Avoidable deaths were defined as those resulting from an underlying cause of heart disease (ischemic or chronic rheumatic), stroke, or hypertensive disease in decedents aged <75 years. Rates and trends by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and place were calculated.

Results

In 2010, an estimated 200,070 avoidable deaths from heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive disease occurred in the United States, 56% of which occurred among persons aged <65 years. The overall age-standardized death rate was 60.7 per 100,000. Rates were highest in the 65–74 years age group, among males, among non-Hispanic blacks, and in the South. During 2001–2010, the overall rate declined 29%, and rates of decline varied by age.

Conclusions

Nearly one fourth of all cardiovascular disease deaths are avoidable. These deaths disproportionately occurred among non-Hispanic blacks and residents of the South. Persons aged <65 years had lower rates than those aged 65–74 years but still accounted for a considerable share of avoidable deaths and demonstrated less improvement.

Implications for Public Health Practice

National, state, and local initiatives aimed at improving health-care systems and supporting healthy behaviors are essential to reducing avoidable heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive disease deaths. Strategies include promoting the ABCS (aspirin when appropriate, blood pressure control, cholesterol management, and smoking cessation), reducing sodium consumption, and creating healthy environments.     

Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: An Age-period-cohort Analysis

Objectives

Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future.

Methods

We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time.

Results

All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60''s. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women.

Conclusions

The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.     

Peer Reviewed: Internet-Based Morbidity and Mortality Surveillance Among Hurricane Katrina Evacuees in Georgia

Introduction

The Internet has revolutionized the way public health surveillance is conducted. Georgia has used it for notifiable disease reporting, electronic outbreak management, and early event detection. We used it in our public health response to the 125,000 Hurricane Katrina evacuees who came to Georgia.

Methods

We developed Internet-based surveillance forms for evacuation shelters and an Internet-based death registry. District epidemiologists, hospital-based physicians, and medical examiners/coroners electronically completed the forms. We analyzed these data and data from emergency departments used by the evacuees.

Results

Shelter residents and patients who visited emergency departments reported primarily chronic diseases. Among 33 evacuee deaths, only 2 were from infectious diseases, and 1 was indirectly related to the hurricane.

Conclusion

The Internet was essential to collect health data from multiple locations, by many different people, and for multiple types of health encounters during Georgia''s Hurricane Katrina public health response.     

Model of Life Expectancy of Chronic Hepatitis B Carriers in an Endemic Region

Background

Chronic infection with hepatitis B (HBV) is a known risk factor for increased mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and chronic liver disease (CLD). However, the specific effects of chronic HBV infection on life expectancy have not been adequately studied. Taiwan is endemic for HBV infection, and thus provides sufficient information for such estimates.

Methods

Population mortality statistics, combined with data on the contribution of HBV to HCC and CLD deaths, were used to model carrier mortality by sex and e antigen status. An abridged life table was used to calculate carrier life expectancy.

Results

Among both males and females, those who are e antigen-positive are more likely to die from HCC than from CLD. When e antigen status remains positive, absolute liver mortality rates climb significantly after age 40 years. CLD is a proportionally higher threat for e antigen-negative females than for other subgroups. Males have higher liver-related mortality at all ages. A small decrease in life expectancy, from 82.0 to 80.1 years, was found for female noncarriers versus female carriers; a larger discrepancy was observed for males—from 76.2 to 71.8 years. In comparison to noncarriers, the lifetime relative risk of mortality is 1.35 for male carriers and 1.16 for female carriers.

Conclusions

These results indicate that chronic HBV infection results in significant liver-related mortality; however, carriers retain a satisfactory life expectancy.Key words: hepatitis B, hepatocellular carcinoma, life expectancy, mortality, Taiwan     

Deprivation and mortality at the town level in Busan, Korea: an ecological study

Objectives

Busan is reported to have the highest mortality rate among 16 provinces in Korea, as well as considerable health inequality across its districts. This study sought to examine overall and cause-specific mortality and deprivation at the town level in Busan, thereby identifying towns and causes of deaths to be targeted for improving overall health and alleviating health inequality.

Methods

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for all-cause and four specific leading causes of death were calculated at the town level in Busan for the years 2005 through 2008. To construct a deprivation index, principal components and factor analysis were adopted, using 10% sample data from the 2005 census. Geographic information system (GIS) mapping techniques were applied to compare spatial distributions between the deprivation index and SMRs. We fitted the Gaussian conditional autoregressive model (CAR) to estimate the relative risks of mortality by deprivation level, controlling for both the heterogeneity effect and spatial autocorrelation.

Results

The SMRs of towns in Busan averaged 100.3, ranging from 70.7 to 139.8. In old inner cities and towns reclaimed for replaced households, the deprivation index and SMRs were relatively high. CAR modeling showed that gaps in SMRs for heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and physical injury were particularly high.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that more deprived towns are likely to have higher mortality, in particular from cardiovascular disease and physical injury. To improve overall health status and address health inequality, such deprived towns should be targeted.     

Physical Activity Level and Risk of Death: The Severance Cohort Study

Background

Physical activity decreases deaths from cardiovascular disease and other causes; however, it is unclear whether physical activity is associated with cancer incidence and death in Asian populations.

Methods

Data from 59 636 Koreans aged 30 to 93 years were collected using a questionnaire and medical examination at the Severance Hospital Health Promotion Center between 1994 and 2004. Study participants were followed for a mean duration of 10.3 years.

Results

In the exercising group, the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed a lower risk of cancer death (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.62–0.85) in men but not in women. Those who exercised, as compared with those who did not, had lower risks of all-cause death (men: HR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.60–0.76; women: HR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.53–0.79) and noncancer death (men: 0.63, 0.53–0.75; women: 0.52, 0.39–0.69). Physical activity was inversely associated with risk of noncancer death among men and women.

Conclusions

Physical activity was associated with lower risks of cancer death and noncancer death.Key words: physical activity, cancer, death, metabolic equivalent of task     

Peer Reviewed: Chronic Disease Risk Factors Among Alaska Native and American Indian People,Alaska, 2004-2006

Introduction

The Alaska Education and Research Towards Health (EARTH) Study is being conducted to determine the prevalence of clinically measured chronic disease risk factors in a large population of American Indian/Alaska Native people (AI/AN). We report these estimates and compare them with those for the overall US population, as assessed by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Methods

We measured blood pressure, height, weight, and fasting serum lipids and glucose in a prospective cohort of 3,822 AI/AN participants who resided in Alaska during 2004 through 2006. We categorized participants as having chronic disease risk factors if their measurements exceeded cutoffs that were determined on the basis of national recommendations. We analyzed the prevalence of risk factors by sex and age and compared the age-adjusted prevalence with 1999-2004 NHANES measurements.

Results

EARTH participants were significantly more likely than NHANES participants to be overweight or obese and to have impaired fasting glucose, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and hypertension. The prevalence of high total cholesterol and triglycerides was not significantly different between the 2 study populations.

Conclusion

We provide baseline clinical measurements for chronic disease risk factors for a larger study sample than any previous study of AI/AN living in Alaska. The prevalence of most risk factors measured exceeded national rates. These data can be used to tailor health interventions and reduce health disparities.