Seasonal variation in admissions of psychiatric patients and its relation to seasonal variation in their births.

Inpatient admissions to all psychiatric hospital beds in England and Wales in 1970-73 were studied by month of admission for eight diagnostic groups. The admission rates for schizophrenia showed a pronounced seasonal variation, with a maximum in summer. The seasonal pattern for schizophrenia was very similar to the one shown for mania, although somewhat less marked. The admission rates for neurosis and for the large group of 'all other non-psychotic mental illness' showed little evidence of seasonal variation as there was could largely be explained by social factors. In schizophrenic and manic patients, the pattern of seasonal admissions (peak months July and August) is similar to the pattern reported for their births (peak months February and March). This is consistent with the hypothesis of an abnormal seasonal pattern of parental conception as the cause of the abnormal birth pattern.     

Seasonality, natality and herd immunity in feline panleukopenia.

Feline panleukopenia (FPL) was diagnosed in 185 of 7043 feline admissions (2.63%) at a university veterinary hospital over an eight-year period. FLP has a distinct seasonal pattern, occurring during July, August and September. Seasonal peaks were noted in all the years studied. Cats less than one year of age accounted for 70% of the total morbidity. The birth of felines in the United States also assumes a distinctly seasonal pattern. Analysis of 47,786 purebred litters born during 1970-1972 revealed a peak during April, May and June with a national median of May 29. A unifying hypothesis is presented to account for the seasonal occurrence of FPL. An influx of susceptible cats occurs annually following the birth of large numbers of kittens each spring, and disappearance of maternal immunity during the next two to three months. The addition of a large number of susceptible kittens leads to the development of summertime epidemics and serves to exemplify the principles of "herd immunity."     

Seasonal diarrhoeal mortality among Mexican children.

The study investigated the effects on diarrhoeal deaths among under-5-year-old Mexican children of the following variables: season (summer or winter), region (north versus south), age group, and place of death. Examination of death certificates indicated that the distribution of deaths in 1989-90 was bimodal, with one peak during the winter and a more pronounced one during the summer. In 1993-94, however, the winter peak was higher than that in the summer (odds ratio (OR) = 2.04). These findings were due mostly to deaths among children aged 1-23 months (OR = 1.86). Diarrhoeal mortality was highest among children aged 6-11 months (OR = 2.23). During the winter, there was a significant increase in the number of deaths that occurred in medical care units and among children who had been seen by a physician before they died, but deaths occurring at home showed no seasonal variation. In the northern states, the reduction in diarrhoeal mortality was less in winter than in summer (OR = 2.62). In the southern states, the proportional reduction during the winter was similar to that in the summer.     

A Markov simulation model for analyzing and forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularization procedures in Western Australia

PURPOSE: A Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to analyze and forecast the numbers of coronary artery bypass graftings, percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) , incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events, and CHD deaths for different age and sex groups in the population of Western Australia (population approximately 1.7 million). METHODS: The Western Australian health information system contains linked records of all hospital admissions and deaths for individuals from 1980 to the present. This system allows the separation of the population into groups according to CHD/coronary artery revascularization procedure history and also allows the estimation of event probabilities directly from population-level data. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results for the 1990 Western Australian population over the period 1990 to 1994 and the 1995 population over the period 1995 to 1999 indicated that the Markov model fits well and produces good forecasts under "stable" conditions. The model can also be useful in ascertaining the impact of system changes, such as the widespread introduction of stents in PCI operations in 1995.     

2011年河南省肺结核疫情特征流行病学分析

目的了解2011年河南省肺结核发生水平及其流行特征。方法采用中国疾病预防控制中心开发的"国家疾病报告管理信息系统"和Excel软件对2011年河南省肺结核疫情进行分析。结果 2011年河南省共报告肺结核65 741例,发病率为69.91/10万,其中报告死亡127例,报告死亡率为0.13/10万,与上年相比发病率下降了4.38%,死亡率下降了20.39%。在28种法定甲乙类传染病中,发病率仅次于病毒性肝炎居第2位,死亡率仅次于艾滋病亦居第2位。时间分布:发病数冬春季节多于夏秋季节,但季节性高发特点不明显;地区分布:发病率大体呈现豫南豫东高于豫北豫西的特点;年龄与性别分布:患者以青壮年较多,男性多于女性,职业分布以农民最多。结论在当前肺结核仍是严重危害河南省居民身体健康和生命安全的重要公共卫生问题之一。     

Childhood asthma and return to school in Sydney, Australia

OBJECTIVES: To describe the seasonal pattern of hospital admissions for childhood asthma in Sydney, Australia and investigate the relationship between these admissions and time of return to school. STUDY DESIGN: Time-series analysis of daily hospital admissions for childhood asthma in Sydney from 1994 to 2000. METHODS: We defined the time series of all asthma-related hospital admissions in Sydney between 1994 and 2000 for age groups 1-4 and 5-14 years. We analysed the time series for each age group using a generalized additive model with a log-link function, an offset term and quasi-likelihood estimation. Daily admissions were modelled using penalised regression splines adjusting for long term trends, school terms and holidays, weekday and influenza epidemics. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential confounding, the risk of asthma admission increased to a peak between 2 and 4 weeks after the first day of school in each term and varied between 1.5 and 3 times the risk prior to return to school for both age groups. The largest increase in asthma risk occurring in term one after the long summer holiday. The increase in admission risk began soon after the first day of school of each term for school age children 5-14 years, but not in pre-school age children 1-4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Returning to school after term holidays is strongly associated with increased risk of hospital admissions for asthma in children, especially following the long summer holiday. Preventive measures focused on return to school have the potential to substantially decrease admissions for asthma in children.     

Climatic factors associated with hospitalizations for rotavirus diarrhoea in children under 5 years of age

This study compares the seasonality of rotavirus diarrhoeal hospital admissions and its relationship to climatic factors across three Australian cities. Weekly admission of rotavirus diarrhoea (1993-2003) in children aged <5 years and weekly average temperature and relative humidity for each city were modelled using a log-linear model with a cubic trend and season. Interactions were included to test for differences in the effect of temperature and humidity between seasons and between cities. Admissions of rotavirus diarrhoea peaked in winter and spring and were lowest in summer. Higher temperature and humidity in the previous week were associated with a decrease in rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in three cities. The effects of both temperature and humidity on rotavirus admissions in Brisbane differed across seasons. Strategies to combat outbreaks of rotavirus diarrhoea should take climatic factors and seasonal effects into consideration to plan for the excess seasonal hospital admissions.     

Exhaust Plenums for Mist Control

Incidence of respiratory and of gastrointestinal illnesses were determined by surveillance of families in Tecumseh, Mich. Repetitive seasonal patterns of virus isolation were observed. In two of the three years of surveillance, there was a sharp peak of respiratory illness in September associated with the isolation of rhinoviruses. Parainfluenzaviruses were frequently isolated in late fall and respiratory syncytial virus for a limited period each respiratory year in the winter or spring. Gastrointestinal illnesses were most common in winter, least in summer, with spring and fall intermediate, a pattern similar to that found with respiratory disease. Gastrointestinal disease was negatively correlated with temperature in spring and fall and positively in summer, which suggested that a different group of pathogens might be involved in the latter season. The early fall peak of respiratory illness was found to be associated with a fluctuation in sunshine and rainfall four and six weeks before.     

2010年河南省肺结核疫情特点及流行病学分析

目的了解2010年河南省肺结核发生水平及其流行特征。方法采用中国疾病预防控制中心开发的"疾病监测信息报告管理系统"和Excel2007、PHGIS2004、SPSS17.0等对2010年河南省肺结核疫情进行整理分析。结果 2010年河南省共报告肺结核69 364例,发病率为73.11/10万,其中报告死亡161例,报告死亡率为0.17/10万,与上年相比发病率下降了11.36%,死亡率下降了40.29%。在27种甲乙类传染病中,肺结核的发病率仅次于乙肝、手足口病居第3位,死亡率仅次于艾滋病居第2位。时间分布特点发病数春夏季多于秋冬季,但季节高发特点不明显;地区分布特点发病率豫南、豫北高;年龄与性别分布特点患者以青壮年较多,男性多于女性,职业分布以农民最多。结论应加强河南省农村地区,特别是劳动力人群的肺结核防治工作的投入与管理力度。     

Seasonal variation in hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation: a population-based study

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular events such as acute myocardial infarction and stroke vary seasonally, with a peak incidence during the winter and a trough during the summer. Few data exist on the seasonal variation of atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We examined the association among season, outdoor temperature, and risk of atrial fibrillation. We identified 32,992 subjects, age 50-89 years, in a random sample of half the people with an incident hospital discharge diagnosis of atrial fibrillation in the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register from 1980 to 1993. We used a periodic regression model to evaluate any seasonal distribution. RESULTS: We found a winter peak and a summer trough in the incidence of atrial fibrillation. The relative incidence of atrial fibrillation during winter as compared with summer, estimated as the ratio of the incidence in the month of the peak relative to the incidence in the month of the trough, was small (relative risk = 1.20; 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.29). Stratification by sex, age, and the presence or absence of diabetes and underlying cardiovascular diseases did not affect the seasonal pattern. We also found an inverse relation between mean outdoor temperature and incidence of atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSION: The risk of atrial fibrillation was modestly higher during the winter and was inversely associated with outdoor temperature.     

Seasonal variation in food intake, physical activity, and body weight in a predominantly overweight population

OBJECTIVE: To describe seasonal variation in food intake, physical activity, and body weight in a predominantly overweight population. DESIGN: A longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Most of the study participants were recruited from a health maintenance organization (HMO) in central Massachusetts, USA. Additional individuals of Hispanic descent were recruited from outside of the HMO population to increase the ethnic diversity of this sample. SUBJECTS: Data from 593 participants, aged 20-70, were used for this investigation. Each participant was followed quarterly (five sampling points: baseline and four consecutive quarters) for 1-year period. Body weight measurements and three 24-h dietary and physical activity recalls were obtained on randomly selected days (including 2 weekdays and 1 weekend day) per quarter. Sinusoidal regression models were used to estimate peak-to-trough amplitude and phase of the peaks. RESULTS: Daily caloric intake was higher by 86 kcal/day during the fall compared to the spring. Percentage of calories from carbohydrate, fat and saturated fat showed slight seasonal variation, with a peak in the spring for carbohydrate and in the fall for total fat and saturated fat intake. The lowest physical activity level was observed in the winter and the highest in the spring. Body weight varied by about 1/2 kg throughout the year, with a peak in the winter (P<0.001 winter versus summer). Greater seasonal variation was observed in subjects who were male, middle aged, nonwhite, and less educated. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is seasonal variation in diet, physical activity and body weight, the magnitude of the change is generally small in this population. SPONSORSHIP: US National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute.     

2008年河南省肺结核疫情特点流行病学分析

目的了解2008年河南省肺结核发生水平及其流行特征。方法采用中国疾病预防控制中心开发的"国家疾病报告管理信息系统"和Excel软件对2008年河南省肺结核疫情进行分析。结果2008年河南省共报告肺结核86 903例,发病率为92.84/10万,其中报告死亡159例,报告死亡率为0.17/10万,与上年相比发病率下降了3.01%,死亡率下降了28.13%。在27种甲乙类传染病中,发病率仅次于病毒性肝炎居第2位,死亡率仅次于艾滋病亦居第2位。时间分布特点发病数冬春季节多于夏秋季节,但季节性高发特点并不明显;地区分布特点发病率豫南豫东高于豫北豫西;年龄与性别分布特点患者以青壮年较多,男性多于女性,职业分布以农民最多。结论在当前肺结核仍然是严重危害河南省居民身体健康和生命安全的重要公共卫生问题之一。     

Socio-economic, migrant and geographic differentials in coronary heart disease occurrence in New South Wales

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the variation in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) by socio-economic status (SES), country of birth (COB) and geography (urban/rural) in the total population of New South Wales (Australia) in 1991-95. METHOD: CHD deaths and AMI are from complete enumerations of deaths and hospital admissions, respectively; and population denominators are from census information. Data are examined separately by sex, and comparisons of SES groups (based on municipalities), COB and region are analysed using Poisson regression, after adjustment for age. RESULTS: The study identified higher risk for AMI admissions and CHD mortality in lower SES populations with significant linear trends, for both sexes, adjusted for age, region and COB. According to the population attributable fractions (PAF), 23-41% of the risk of CHD occurrence is due to SES lower than the highest quartile. The higher age-adjusted risk for CHD occurrence in rural and remote populations for both sexes, compared with urban communities, was lessened by adjustment for COB, and all but abolished when also adjusted for SES.COB analysis indicated significantly lower age-adjusted AMI admissions and CHD mortality compared with the Australian-born. CONCLUSIONS: Higher risks for CHD in rural populations compared with the capital city (Sydney) are due, in part, to lower SES, lesser migrant composition. IMPLICATIONS: Strategies for reducing CHD differentials should consider demographic factors and the fundamental need to reduce socio-economic inequalities, as well as targeting appropriate prevention measures.     

Epidemiology and aetiology of acute bronchiolitis in Hong Kong infants.

The epidemiological, clinical and virological features of 1220 children with acute bronchiolitis admitted to the Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong, from 1985 to 1988 are reported. They accounted for 6.6% of total paediatric admissions and provided a case incidence of bronchiolitis requiring admission to hospital of approximately 21 per 1000 children 0-24 months of age. The clinical course and outcome was in general benign. The average hospital stay was 5 days and there were no deaths. Ten per cent of patients were repeatedly admitted to hospital with recurrent wheezing after discharge. Two infants developed bronchiolitis obliterans. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was shown by direct immunofluorescence, virus culture and serology to be the commonest cause of acute bronchiolitis in Hong Kong. Other aetiological agents included parainfluenza and influenza viruses, adenoviruses, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae. In contrast to western countries, a seasonal variation of bronchiolitis was found with a peak incidence in the summer months. The significance of these observations is discussed.     

Sudden infant death syndrome: seasonality and a biphasic model of pathogenesis.

STUDY OBJECTIVE--This paper examines the relationship between season, age, and the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). It provides a theoretical model for the pathogenesis of SIDS and uses it as a framework to consider risk factor mechanism. DESIGN--A case series analysis was used to examine season and age in relation to SIDS and seasonal pattern and age at death distribution of perinatal risk factors. SETTING--The source population for the SIDS cases in this study was all live births in the state of Tasmania, Australia, 1975 to 1987 inclusive. SUBJECTS--Cases were all infants born 1975 to 1987 who died of SIDS on whom birth notification information was available (n = 348). The live birth cohort 1980-87 (n = 55,944) was used as the control population for risk factor identification. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--The median ages of death for spring, summer, autumn, and winter born infants were 115, 103.5, 91 and 78 days. Spring and summer born infants died at a significantly older median age than winter born infants. The month of birth distribution of SIDS cases did not alter significantly from a uniform, nonseasonal distribution (p greater than 0.25) but month of death was seasonally distributed (p less than 0.01). Premature and low birthweight infants died at an older median age (p less than 0.05) than term and non-low-birthweight infants. An excess of male infant deaths and infant deaths to older mothers occurred during winter (p less than 0.05). CONCLUSIONS--The pathogenesis of SIDS can be represented as a biphasic model with three pathways of risk factor operation. In this study, season influenced the age at death of SIDS infants. We propose that risk factors with a strong seasonal distribution are likely to be operating in the postnatal period.     

High coronary heart disease rates among Dutch women of the baby boom, born 1945-1959: age-cohort analysis and projection

BACKGROUND: After a steep decline in older generations, coronary heart disease mortality is stagnating in female cohorts born after the Second World War. We analysed past trends and predicted future health care needs for coronary heart disease in the Dutch population. METHODS: A loglinear age-cohort model relates numbers of deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease to sex, age, birth cohort and population size, and projects age-cohort changes over the future population. Population size, population forecasts and coronary heart disease mortality (period 1970-1999) are from vital statistics. Numbers of hospitalised acute coronary events are from the nationwide hospital register (period 1980-1999). RESULTS: Among men, the rate ratios of deaths and hospital admissions were, respectively, 0.21 (death) and 0.78 (survivors at discharge) in the cohorts born in the period 1948-1962 compared to the period 1918-1922. Among women, the same rate ratios were 0.41 and 1.89. The projection model predicts 22% less deaths from coronary heart disease and 22% more survivors of an infarction in 2015, among men. Among women, there will be 5% less deaths and 70% more survivors of an infarction, most of these being middle age members of the baby boom cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Stagnating all-cause mortality is correlated with an upward trend in coronary heart disease risk in the female baby boomers. Heart health care needs among middle-aged women will increase sharply. These changes are correlated to high lung cancer mortality and high smoking rates in these cohorts.     

2009-2013年南京市流感流行病学特征分析

目的 描述2009-2013年期间南京市流感的流行病学规律和特点。方法 流感样本来源于流感样病例,利用逆转录聚合酶链反应确定阳性病例以及流感分型。采用Excel 2007整理数据和SPSS 19.0进行统计分析。结果 2009-2013年间,南京地区共有流感样病例17 906例,其中阳性2 990例,流感阳性率为16.7%。流感阳性率随月份、季度和年份而改变,南京阳性率高峰主要出现在秋冬季,也伴有一些夏季的高峰。甲型流感主要在夏季、秋季和冬季流行,乙型流感主要在冬季流行。2009-2013年南京优势毒株为甲型H1N1,H3N2和乙型流感。H3N2通常在秋季和夏季达到流行高峰,甲型H1N1大流行在秋季出现高峰,乙型流感主要在冬季流行。南京地区在秋季和初冬出现流行高峰,但有些年份,在夏季和初秋出现H3N2流行高峰。采用移动流行病学方法建立标准模型,一般流感在南京的流行大约持续11周,流行阈值为25.21%,流感阳性的背景率为5.82%。结论 南京流感高峰通常一年发生一次,但在有些年份中,会出现两个流感高峰时期。     

季节模式、胎儿性别对自然早产影响的分析

目的:收集11年自然早产病例,分析季节模式、胎儿性别对自然早产的影响。方法:回顾性收集1997～2007年自然早产4 081例,比较11年来自然早产率,比较不同的季节和性别对自然早产的影响。结果:随着时间的发展,自然早产率逐渐增加;自然早产随季节的变化而变化,8～12月和1～2月自然早产率处于高峰期;四季比较,秋冬季自然早产明显高于夏季,差异存在统计学意义(P<0.0071),冬季自然早产明显高于春季,差异存在统计学意义(P<0.0071),而自然早产在春季与夏秋季及秋季与冬季间差异没有统计学意义(P>0.0071);自然早产在胎儿性别间差异存在统计学意义,男性胎儿发生自然早产明显高于女性胎儿(P<0.05)。结论:随着时间的发展,自然早产率逐渐增加,自然早产与季节模式有关,自然早产与胎儿的性别有关。     

2010—2019年上海市金山区儿童流感流行情况分析

[目的]分析上海市金山区儿童流感的流行特征,为儿童流感的防控提供科学依据.[方法]对2010年1月—2019年12月上海市金山区的儿童流感样病例(ILI)的监测资料和病毒分离鉴定结果进行分析.[结果]各监测年份中,2010、2016、2017、2018年有冬春季和秋季2个流行高峰,2011和2013年只有冬春季1个流行...