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1.

Objective

To determine factors associated with the incidence of adverse events associated with voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for the prevention of HIV infection in Nyanza province, Kenya.

Methods

Males aged 12 years or older who underwent VMMC between November 2008 and March 2010 in 16 clinics in three districts were followed through passive surveillance to monitor the incidence of adverse events during and after surgery. A subset of clinic participants was randomly selected for active surveillance post-operatively and was monitored for adverse events through a home-based, in-depth interview and a genital exam 28 to 45 days after surgery. Performance indicators were assessed for 167 VMMC providers.

Findings

The adverse event rate was 0.1% intra-operatively and 2.1% post-operatively among clinic system participants (n = 3705), and 7.5% post-operatively among participants under active surveillance (n = 1449). Agreement between systems was moderate (κ: 0.20; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.09–0.32). Providers who performed more than 100 procedures achieved an adverse event rate of 0.7% and 4.3% in the clinic and active surveillance systems, respectively, and had decreased odds of performing a procedure resulting in an adverse event. With provider experience, the mean duration of the procedure also dropped from 24.0 to 15.5 minutes. Among providers who had performed at least 100 procedures, nurses and clinicians provided equivalent services.

Conclusion

To reduce the adverse event rate, one must ensure that providers achieve a desired level of experience before they perform unsupervised procedures. Adverse events observed by the provider as well as those perceived by the client should both be monitored.  相似文献   

2.
3.

Objective

To illustrate the effects of failing to account for model uncertainty when modelling is used to estimate the global burden of disease, with specific application to childhood deaths from rotavirus infection.

Methods

To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability.

Findings

In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492 000 and 664 000. While averaging over the different models’ estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541 000 as compared with the World Health Organization’s estimate of 527 000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105 000 to 198 000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account.

Conclusion

Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.  相似文献   

4.

Objective

To evaluate mortality and morbidity among internally displaced persons (IDPs) who relocated in a demographic surveillance system (DSS) area in western Kenya following post-election violence.

Methods

In 2007, 204 000 individuals lived in the DSS area, where field workers visit households every 4 months to record migrations, births and deaths. We collected data on admissions among children < 5 years of age in the district hospital and developed special questionnaires to record information on IDPs. Mortality, migration and hospitalization rates among IDPs and regular DSS residents were compared, and verbal autopsies were performed for deaths.

Findings

Between December 2007 and May 2008, 16 428 IDPs migrated into the DSS, and over half of them stayed 6 months or longer. In 2008, IDPs aged 15–49 years died at higher rates than regular residents of the DSS (relative risk, RR: 1.34; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.004–1.80). A greater percentage of deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection occurred among IDPs aged ≥ 5 years (53%) than among regular DSS residents (25–29%) (P < 0.001). Internally displaced children < 5 years of age did not die at higher rates than resident children but were hospitalized at higher rates (RR: 2.95; 95% CI: 2.44–3.58).

Conclusion

HIV-infected internally displaced adults in conflict-ridden parts of Africa are at increased risk of HIV-related death. Relief efforts should extend to IDPs who have relocated outside IDP camps, particularly if afflicted with HIV infection or other chronic conditions.  相似文献   

5.

Objective

To explore excess paediatric mortality after discharge from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and its duration and risk factors.

Methods

Hospital and demographic data were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 15 years, by age group and clinical syndrome. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.

Findings

In 2004–2008, approximately 111 000 children were followed for 555 000 person–years. We analysed 14 971 discharges and 535 deaths occurring within 365 days of discharge. Mortality was higher in the post-discharge cohort than in the community cohort (age-adjusted rate ratio, RR: 7.7; 95% confidence interval, CI: 6.6–8.9) and declined little over time. An increased post-discharge mortality hazard was found in children aged < 5 years with the following: weight-for-age Z score < −4 (hazard ratio, HR: 6.5); weight-for-age Z score > −4 but < −3 (HR: 3.4); hypoxia (HR: 2.3); bacteraemia (HR: 1.8); hepatomegaly (HR: 2.3); jaundice (HR: 1.8); hospital stay > 13 days (HR: 1.8). Older age was protective (reference < 1 month): 6–23 months, HR: 0.8; 2–4 years, HR: 0.6. Children with at least one risk factor accounted for 545 (33%) of the 1655 annual discharges and for 39 (47%) of the 83 discharge-associated deaths.

Conclusion

Hospital admission selects vulnerable children with a sustained increased risk of dying. The risk factors identified provide an empiric basis for effective outpatient follow-up.  相似文献   

6.

Objective

To determine whether in countries with high gender empowerment the female-to-male smoking prevalence ratio is also higher.

Methods

Bivariate and multiple regression analyses were performed to explore the relation between the United Nations Development Programme’s gender empowerment measure (GEM) and the female-to-male smoking prevalence ratio (calculated from the 2008 WHO global tobacco control report). Because a country’s progression through the various stages of the tobacco epidemic and its gender smoking ratio (GSR) are thought to be influenced by its level of development, we explored this correlation as well, with economic development defined in terms of gross national income (GNI) per capita and income inequality (Gini coefficient).

Findings

The GSR was significantly and positively correlated with the GEM (r = 0.680; P < 0.001). In addition, the GEM was the strongest predictor of the GSR (β, adjusted: 0.47; P < 0.0001) after controlling for GNI per capita and for Gini coefficient.

Conclusion

Whether progress towards gender empowerment can take place without a corresponding increase in smoking among women remains to be seen. Strong tobacco control measures are needed in countries where women are being increasingly empowered.  相似文献   

7.

Problem

Despite seven years of investment from the President''s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the expansion of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related services continues to challenge Mozambique’s health-care infrastructure, especially in the country’s rural regions.

Approach

In 2012, as part of a national acceleration plan for HIV care and treatment, Namacurra district employed a mobile clinic strategy to provide temporary manpower and physical space to expand services at four rural peripheral clinics. This paper describes the strategy deployed, the uptake of services and the key lessons learnt in the first 18 months of implementation.

Local setting

In 2012, Namacurra´s adult population was estimated to be 125 425, and of those 15 803 were estimated to be HIV infected. Although there is consistent government support of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes, national coverage remains low, with less than 15% of those eligible having received ART by December 2012.

Relevant changes

Between April 2012 and September 2013, Namacurra district enrolled 4832 new patients into HIV care and treatment. By using the mobile clinic strategy for ART expansion, the district was able to expand provision of ART from two to six (of a desired seven) clinics by September 2013.

Lessons learnt

Mobile clinic strategies could rapidly expand HIV care and treatment in under-funded settings in ways that both build local capacity and are sustainable for local health systems. The clinics best serve as a transition to improved capacity at fixed-site services.  相似文献   

8.

Problem

The lack of skilled service providers in rural areas of India has emerged as the most important constraint in achieving universal health care. India has about 1.4 million medical practitioners, 74% of whom live in urban areas where they serve only 28% of the population, while the rural population remains largely underserved.

Approach

The National Rural Health Mission, launched by the Government of India in 2005, promoted various state and national initiatives to address this issue. Under India’s federal constitution, the states are responsible for implementing the health system with financial support from the national government.

Local setting

The availability of doctors and nurses is limited by a lack of training colleges in states with the greatest need as well as the reluctance of professionals from urban areas to work in rural areas. Before 2005, the most common strategy was compulsory rural service bonds and mandatory rural service for preferential admission into post-graduate programmes.

Relevant changes

Initiatives under the National Rural Health Mission include an increase in sanctioned posts for public health facilities, incentives, workforce management policies, locality-specific recruitment and the creation of a new service cadre specifically for public sector employment. As a result, the National Rural Health Mission has added more than 82 343 skilled health workers to the public health workforce.

Lessons learnt

The problem of uneven distribution of skilled health workers can be solved. Educational strategies and community health worker programmes have shown promising results. Most of these strategies are too recent for outcome evaluation, although this would help optimize and develop an ideal mix of strategies for different contexts.  相似文献   

9.

Objective

To assess the effect on out-of-pocket medical spending and physical and mental health of Japan’s reduction in health-care cost sharing from 30% to 10% when people turn 70 years of age.

Methods

Study data came from a 2007 nationally-representative cross-sectional survey of 10 293 adults aged 64 to 75 years. Physical health was assessed using a 16-point scale based on self-reported data on general health, mobility, self-care, activities of daily living and pain. Mental health was assessed using a 24-point scale based on the Kessler-6 instrument for nonspecific psychological distress. The effect of reduced cost sharing was estimated using a regression discontinuity design.

Findings

For adults aged 70 to 75 years whose income made them ineligible for reduced cost sharing, neither out-of-pocket spending nor health outcomes differed from the values expected on the basis of the trend observed in 64- to 69-year-olds. However, for eligible adults aged 70 to 75 years, out-of-pocket spending was significantly lower (P < 0.001) and mental health was significantly better (P < 0.001) than expected. These differences emerged abruptly at the age of 70 years. Moreover, the mental health benefits were similar in individuals who were and were not using health-care services (P = 0.502 for interaction). The improvement in physical health after the age of 70 years in adults eligible for reduced cost-sharing tended to be greater than in non-eligible adults (P = 0.084).

Conclusion

Reduced cost sharing was associated with lower out-of-pocket medical spending and improved mental health in older Japanese adults.  相似文献   

10.

Objective

To determine whether a cash-for-work programme during the annual food insecurity period in Bangladesh improved nutritional status in poor rural women and children.

Methods

The panel study involved a random sample of 895 households from over 50 000 enrolled in a cash-for-work programme between September and December 2007 and 921 similar control households. The height, weight and mid-upper arm circumference of one woman and child aged less than 5 years from each household were measured at baseline and at the end of the study (mean time: 10 weeks). Women reported 7-day household food expenditure and consumption on both occasions. Changes in parameters were compared between the two groups.

Findings

At baseline, no significant difference existed between the groups. By the study end, the difference in mean mid-upper arm circumference between women in the intervention and control groups had widened by 2.29 mm and the difference in mean weight, by 0.88 kg. Among children, the difference in means between the two groups had also widened in favour of the intervention group for: height (0.08 cm; P < 0.05), weight (0.22 kg; P < 0.001), mid-upper arm circumference (1.41 mm; P < 0.001) and z-scores for height-for-age (0.02; P < 0.001), weight-for-age (0.17; P < 0.001), weight-for-height (0.23; P < 0.001) and mid-upper arm circumference (0.12; P < 0.001). Intervention households spent more on food and consumed more protein-rich food at the end of the study.

Conclusion

The cash-for-work programme led to greater household food expenditure and consumption and women’s and children’s nutritional status improved.  相似文献   

11.

Objective

To assess the effectiveness of a three-stage intervention to reduce caesarean deliveries in a Chinese tertiary hospital.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted to assess whether educating staff, educating patients and auditing surgeon practices (introduced in 2005) had reduced caesarean delivery rates. Multiple logistic regression was used to check for a potential association between caesarean rates and rates of admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU).

Findings

The caesarean delivery rate ranged from 53.5% to 56.1% in 2001–2004 and from 43.9% to 36.1% in 2005–2011. When 2001–2004 and 2005–2011 were treated as “before” and “after” periods to evaluate the intervention’s impact on the mean caesarean section rate, a significant reduction was noted: from 54.8% to 40.3% (odds ratio, OR: 0.56; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.52–0.59; χ2 test: P < 0.001). The overall drop in the caesarean section rate was significant (χ2 test: P < 0.001) and inversely correlated with the years (Spearman’s ρ: −0.096; P < 0.001). Although complicated pregnancies increased after 2004, the primary caesarean section rate decreased annually by 20% on average in 2005–2011, after practice audits were implemented. Multiple logistic regression showed a positive association between the caesarean delivery rate and the rate of admission to the NICU (adjusted OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.14–1.40).

Conclusion

Patient and staff education and practice audits reduced the Caesarean section rate in a tertiary referral hospital without an increase in admissions to the NICU.  相似文献   

12.
13.

Objective

To report the rates of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and the coverage of interventions designed to prevent such transmission, in KwaZulu-Natal.

Methods

Mothers with infants aged ≤ 16 weeks and fathers or legal guardians with infants aged 4–8 weeks who, between May 2008 and April 2009, attended immunization clinics in six districts of KwaZulu-Natal were included. The mothers’ uptake of interventions for the prevention of MTCT was explored. Blood samples from infants aged 4–8 weeks were tested for anti-HIV antibodies and, if antibody-positive, for HIV desoxyribonucleic acid (DNA).

Findings

Of the 19 494 mothers investigated, 89·9% reported having had an HIV test in their recent pregnancy. Of the 19 138 mothers who reported ever having had an HIV test, 34.4% reported that they had been found HIV-positive and, of these, 13.7% had started lifelong antiretroviral treatment and 67.2% had received zidovudine and nevirapine. Overall, 40.4% of the 7981 infants tested were found positive for anti-HIV antibodies, indicating HIV exposure. Just 7.1% of the infants checked for HIV DNA (equating to 2.8% of the infants tested for anti-HIV antibodies) were found positive.

Conclusion

The low levels of MTCT observed among the infants indicate the rapid, successful implementation of interventions for the prevention of such transmission. Sampling at immunization clinics appears to offer a robust method of estimating the impact of interventions designed to reduce such transmission. Large-scale elimination of paediatric HIV infections appears feasible, although this goal has not yet been fully achieved in KwaZulu-Natal.  相似文献   

14.

Objective

To estimate the magnitude of under-registration of deaths, by age and sex, in Thailand.

Methods

The data in this study were derived from two sources: the Thai Survey of Population Changes (SPC) 2005–2006, a consecutive multi-round household survey conducted over a 12-month period, and Thailand’s vital registration records. SPC death entries for people of all ages were matched to 2005–2006 death records from vital registration. The principles of a dual records system were applied to estimate the magnitude of under-registration of deaths, classified by age and sex, using the Chandrasekaran-Deming formula.

Findings

Overall under-registration of deaths during 2005–2006 was 9.00% (95% confidence interval, CI: 8.95–9.05) for males and 8.36% (95% CI: 8.31–8.41) for females. For both males and females, under-registration decreased as age increased. Under-registration was greatest among people of either sex aged 1–4 years, whereas it was < 10% among people 60 years of age and older, both males and females.

Conclusion

These findings provided correction factors that can be used for adjusting mortality data from the registration system.  相似文献   

15.

Objective

To determine the incidence of loss to follow-up in a treatment programme for people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Kenya and to investigate how loss to follow-up is affected by gender.

Methods

Between November 2001 and November 2007, 50 275 HIV-positive individuals aged ≥ 14 years (69% female; median age: 36.2 years) were enrolled in the study. An individual was lost to follow-up when absent from the HIV treatment clinic for > 3 months if on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) or for > 6 months if not. The incidence of loss to follow-up was calculated using Kaplan–Meier methods and factors associated with loss to follow-up were identified by logistic and Cox multivariate regression analysis.

Findings

Overall, 8% of individuals attended no follow-up visits, and 54% of them were lost to follow-up. The overall incidence of loss to follow-up was 25.1 per 100 person–years. Among the 92% who attended at least one follow-up visit, the incidence of loss to follow-up before and after starting cART was 27.2 and 14.0 per 100 person–years, respectively. Baseline factors associated with loss to follow-up included younger age, a long travel time to the clinic, patient disclosure of positive HIV status, high CD4+ lymphocyte count, advanced-stage HIV disease, and rural clinic location. Men were at an increased risk overall and before and after starting cART.

Conclusion

The risk of being lost to follow-up was high, particularly before starting cART. Men were more likely to become lost to follow-up, even after adjusting for baseline sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Interventions designed for men and women separately could improve retention.  相似文献   

16.

Objective

To estimate influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh in 2009.

Methods

In four hospitals in Bangladesh, respiratory samples were collected twice a month throughout 2009 from inpatients aged < 5 years with severe pneumonia and from older inpatients with severe acute respiratory infection. The samples were tested for influenza virus ribonucleic acid (RNA) using polymerase chain reaction. The deaths in 2009 in five randomly selected unions (the smallest administrative units in Bangladesh) in each hospital’s catchment area were then investigated using formal records and informal group discussions. The deaths of those who had reportedly died within 14 days of suddenly developing fever with cough and/or a sore throat were assumed to be influenza-associated. The rate of such deaths in 2009 in each of the catchment areas was then estimated from the number of apparently influenza-associated deaths in the sampled unions, the proportion of the sampled inpatients in the local hospital who tested positive for influenza virus RNA, and the estimated number of residents of the sampled unions.

Findings

Of the 2500 people known to have died in 2009 in all 20 study unions, 346 (14%) reportedly had fever with cough and/or sore throat within 14 days of their deaths. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated mortality in these unions was 11 per 100 000 population: 1.5, 4.0 and 125 deaths per 100 000 among those aged < 5, 5–59 and > 59 years, respectively.

Conclusion

The highest burden of influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh in 2009 was among the elderly.  相似文献   

17.

Objective

To examine the risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (MTI) among Greenlandic children for the purpose of identifying those at highest risk of infection.

Methods

Between 2005 and 2007, 1797 Greenlandic schoolchildren in five different areas were tested for MTI with an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and a tuberculin skin test (TST). Parents or guardians were surveyed using a standardized self-administered questionnaire to obtain data on crowding in the household, parents’ educational level and the child’s health status. Demographic data for each child – i.e. parents’ place of birth, number of siblings, distance between siblings (next younger and next older), birth order and mother’s age when the child was born – were also extracted from a public registry. Logistic regression was used to check for associations between these variables and MTI, and all results were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Children were considered to have MTI if they tested positive on both the IGRA assay and the TST.

Findings

The overall prevalence of MTI was 8.5% (152/1797). MTI was diagnosed in 26.7% of the children with a known TB contact, as opposed to 6.4% of the children without such contact. Overall, the MTI rate was higher among Inuit children (OR: 4.22; 95% CI: 1.55–11.5) and among children born less than one year after the birth of the next older sibling (OR: 2.48; 95% CI: 1.33–4.63). Self-reported TB contact modified the profile to include household crowding and low mother’s education. Children who had an older MTI-positive sibling were much more likely to test positive for MTI themselves (OR: 14.2; 95% CI: 5.75–35.0) than children without an infected older sibling.

Conclusion

Ethnicity, sibling relations, number of household residents and maternal level of education are factors associated with the risk of TB infection among children in Greenland. The strong household clustering of MTI suggests that family sources of exposure are important.  相似文献   

18.

Objective

To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol ≥ 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%).

Methods

CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40–64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (≥ 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication.

Findings

A total CV risk of ≥ 10% and ≥ 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100 000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted.

Conclusion

Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.  相似文献   

19.

Objective

To investigate mortality in women in Burkina Faso in the 4 years following a life-threatening near-miss obstetric complication and to identify the medical, social and health-care-related causes of death.

Methods

In total, 1014 women were recruited after hospital discharge and followed for up to 4 years: 337 had near-miss complications and 677 had uncomplicated pregnancies. Significant differences in mortality between the groups were assessed using Fisher’s exact test. The medical causes of death were identified from medical records and verbal autopsy data; social and health-care-related factors associated with death were identified from interviews with the deceased women’s relatives.

Findings

In the 4 years, 15 (5.3%) women died in the near-miss group and 5 (0.9%) died after uncomplicated pregnancies (P < 0.001). More than half the deaths after a near miss, but none after an uncomplicated delivery, were pregnancy-related. Indirect factors contributed to many of these deaths, particularly human immunodeficiency virus infection. Relatives’ accounts suggested that the high cost and poor quality of health care, a lack of follow-up care and an unmet need for contraception contributed to the excess mortality in the near-miss group.

Conclusion

Women in Burkina Faso who initially survived a near-miss obstetric complication had an increased risk of all-cause and pregnancy-related death in the ensuing 4 years. The likelihood of survival over the longer term could be increased by offering a continuum of care that addresses the indirect and social causes of death and supplements the emergency intrapartum obstetric care provided by current safe motherhood programmes.  相似文献   

20.

Problem

Virtually all women who have cervical cancer are infected with the human papillomavirus (HPV). Of the 275 000 women who die from cervical cancer every year, 88% live in developing countries. Two vaccines against the HPV have been approved. However, vaccine implementation in low-income countries tends to lag behind implementation in high-income countries by 15 to 20 years.

Approach

In 2011, Rwanda’s Ministry of Health partnered with Merck to offer the Gardasil HPV vaccine to all girls of appropriate age. The Ministry formed a “public–private community partnership” to ensure effective and equitable delivery.

Local setting

Thanks to a strong national focus on health systems strengthening, more than 90% of all Rwandan infants aged 12–23 months receive all basic immunizations recommended by the World Health Organization.

Relevant changes

In 2011, Rwanda’s HPV vaccination programme achieved 93.23% coverage after the first three-dose course of vaccination among girls in grade six. This was made possible through school-based vaccination and community involvement in identifying girls absent from or not enrolled in school. A nationwide sensitization campaign preceded delivery of the first dose.

Lessons learnt

Through a series of innovative partnerships, Rwanda reduced the historical two-decade gap in vaccine introduction between high- and low-income countries to just five years. High coverage rates were achieved due to a delivery strategy that built on Rwanda’s strong vaccination system and human resources framework. Following the GAVI Alliance’s decision to begin financing HPV vaccination, Rwanda’s example should motivate other countries to explore universal HPV vaccine coverage, although implementation must be tailored to the local context.  相似文献   

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