Context Clinicians have observed various patterns of functional
decline at the end of life, but few empirical data have tested
these patterns in large populations.
Objective To determine if functional decline differs among
4 types of illness trajectories: sudden death, cancer death,
death from organ failure, and frailty.
Design, Setting, and Participants Cohort analysis of data
from 4 US regions in the prospective, longitudinal Established
Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE)
study. Of the 14 456 participants aged 65 years or older
who provided interviews at baseline (1981-1987), 4871 died during
the first 6 years of follow-up; 4190 (86%) of these provided
interviews within 1 year before dying. These decedents were
evenly distributed in 12 cohorts based on the number of months
between the final interview and death.
Main Outcome Measures Self- or proxy-reported physical
function (performance of 7 activities of daily living [ADLs])
within 1 year prior to death; predicted ADL dependency prior
to death.
Results Mean function declined across the 12 cohorts,
simulating individual decline in the final year of life. Sudden
death decedents were highly functional even in the last month
before death (mean [95% confidence interval {CI}] numbers of
ADL dependencies: 0.69 [0.19-1.19] at 12 months before death
vs 1.22 [0.59-1.85] at the final month of life,
P = .20); cancer
decedents were highly functional early in their final year but
markedly more disabled 3 months prior to death (0.77 [0.30-1.24]
vs 4.09 [3.37-4.81],
P<.001); organ failure decedents experienced
a fluctuating pattern of decline, with substantially poorer
function during the last 3 months before death (2.10 [1.49-2.70]
vs 3.66 [2.94-4.38],
P<.001); and frail decedents were relatively
more disabled in the final year and especially dependent during
the last month (2.92 [2.24-3.60] vs 5.84 [5.33-6.35],
P<.001).
After controlling for age, sex, race, education, marital status,
interval between final interview and death, and other demographic
differences, frail decedents were more than 8 times more likely
than sudden death decedents to be ADL dependent (OR, 8.32 [95%
CI, 6.46-10.73); cancer decedents, one and a half times more
likely (OR, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.25-1.96]); and organ failure decedents,
3 times more likely (OR, 3.00 [95% CI, 2.39-3.77]).
Conclusions Trajectories of functional decline at the
end of life are quite variable. Differentiating among expected
trajectories and related needs would help shape tailored strategies
and better programs of care prior to death.
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