Predictors of Pathologic Progression on Biopsy Among Men on Active Surveillance for Localized Prostate Cancer: The Value of the Pattern of Surveillance Biopsies

Background

A better understanding of the independent predictors of disease progression for prostate cancer (PCa) patients is needed to improve the selection of ideal candidates for active surveillance (AS) and refine the surveillance regimen.

Objective

To examine the association of clinical and pathologic characteristics, as well as patterns of surveillance biopsy results, with the risk of progression in men on AS.

Design, setting, and participants

The retrospective study consisted of men with PCa who were on AS in the prospectively maintained University of California, San Francisco, institutional database from 1996 to 2011. Strict criteria for AS were prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤10 ng/ml, clinical stage T1 or T2, biopsy Gleason grade 6, <33% positive cores, and <50% tumor in any single core. Men were then categorized based on results of their confirmatory surveillance biopsy.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Disease progression was defined as an increase in Gleason grade and/or biopsy volume beyond prespecified cut points. Serial biopsy patterns over the course of surveillance were stratified by confirmatory biopsy findings: negative, positive without progression, and positive with progression. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate predictors of progression during AS.

Results and limitations

A total of 465 men met inclusion criteria (median follow-up: 51 mo). Of these men, 23% had negative confirmatory biopsies. Only 3% of the men (1 of 30) progressed by the fourth surveillance biopsy following a biopsy pattern of negative confirmatory and negative third biopsy findings. Negative confirmatory biopsy and lower PSA density (both p < 0.01) were independently associated with decreased odds of biopsy progression at 3 yr. The main limitation of this study is its observational nature.

Conclusions

The patterns of surveillance biopsy results yield additional important information in AS. Negative confirmatory biopsy and PSA density are important independent predictors of progression on AS and may be used to better counsel men opting for AS.     

Outcome Following Active Surveillance of Men with Screen-detected Prostate Cancer. Results from the Göteborg Randomised Population-based Prostate Cancer Screening Trial

Background

Active surveillance (AS) has emerged as a treatment strategy for reducing overtreatment of screen-detected, low-risk prostate cancer (PCa).

Objective

To assess outcomes following AS of men with screen-detected PCa.

Design, setting, and participants

Of the 968 men who were diagnosed with screen-detected PCa between 1995 and 2010 in the Göteborg randomised, population-based PCa screening trial, 439 were managed with AS and were included in this study. Median age at diagnosis was 65.4 yr of age, and median follow-up was 6.0 yr from diagnosis.

Intervention

The study participants were followed at intervals of 3–12 mo and were recommended to switch to deferred active treatment in case of a progression in prostate-specific antigen, grade, or stage.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

The end points—overall survival (OS), treatment-free survival, failure-free (no relapse after radical treatment) survival, and cancer-specific survival—were calculated for various risk groups (very low, low, intermediate, and high) with Kaplan-Meier estimates. A Cox proportional hazards model as well as a competing risk analysis were used to assess whether risk group or age at diagnosis was associated with failure after AS.

Results and limitations

Forty-five per cent of all screen-detected PCa were managed with AS, and very low-risk and low-risk PCa constituted 60% of all screen-detected PCa. Thirty-seven per cent (162 of 439) switched from surveillance to deferred active treatment, and 39 men failed AS. The 10-yr OS, treatment-free survival, and failure-free survival were 81.1%, 45.4%, and 86.4%, respectively (Kaplan-Meier estimates). Men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk tumours had a hazard ratio for failure of 2.1 (p = 0.09), 3.6 (p = 0.002), and 4.6 (p = 0.15), respectively, compared to very low-risk tumours (Cox regression). Only one PCa death occurred, and one patient developed metastasis (both in the intermediate-risk group). The main limitation of this study is the relatively short follow-up.

Conclusions

A large proportion of men with screen-detected PCa can be managed with AS. AS appears safe for men with low-risk PCa.     

Predictors of unfavourable repeat biopsy results in men participating in a prospective active surveillance program

Background

Active surveillance (AS) protocols for low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) generally include repeat prostate biopsies at predefined follow-up intervals.

Objective

To study the outcome of routinely obtained 1-yr repeat biopsies and factors predicting reclassification to higher risk, to contribute to risk stratification for men on AS.

Design, setting, and participants

We analysed men with low-risk PCa (clinical stage ≤T2, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤10 ng/ml, PSA density <0.2 ng/ml per millilitre, one or two positive biopsy cores, and Gleason score ≤6) who had been included in a prospective AS protocol.

Interventions

PSA was measured 3-monthly and the first volume-dependent repeat biopsy was scheduled 1 yr after diagnosis, independent of PSA doubling time (PSA-DT). Reclassification to higher risk disease on repeat biopsy was defined as Gleason score ≥7 or ≥3 positive cores.

Measurements

We analysed whether baseline patient characteristics and PSA-DT were associated with reclassification to more aggressive PCa on repeat biopsy.

Results and limitations

A first repeat biopsy was taken in 757 patients after median follow-up of 1.03 yr. The results of repeat biopsies were favourable (no or low-risk PCa) in 594 patients (78.5%) and led to reclassification of risk in 163 (21.5%). Analysis showed that reclassification to higher risk was significantly influenced by the number of initial positive cores (two vs one) (odds ratio [OR]: 1.8; p = 0.002) and higher PSA density (OR: 2.1; p = 0.003). The outcome was not significantly influenced by age, clinical stage, total number of biopsy cores, or PSA. Adding PSA-DT at time of repeat biopsy to the model showed PSA-DT <3 yr to be significantly associated with reclassification to higher risk (OR: 1.7; p = 0.015). Data on tumour involvement per biopsy core were not available.

Conclusions

Clinical features at baseline and during follow-up in our AS cohort are significantly associated with short-term reclassification to higher risk on repeat biopsy. These characteristics can potentially be used for risk stratification of men with PCa who are apparently at favourable risk.

Trial registration

The current program is registered at the Dutch Trial Register with identification number ID NTR1718 (http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=1718).     

Timing of Curative Treatment for Prostate Cancer: A Systematic Review

Context

Delaying definitive therapy unfavourably affects outcomes in many malignancies. Diagnostic, psychological, and logistical reasons but also active surveillance (AS) strategies can lead to treatment delay, an increase in the interval between the diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer (PCa).

Objective

To review and summarise the current literature on the impact of treatment delay on PCa oncologic outcomes.

Evidence acquisition

A comprehensive search of PubMed and Embase databases until 30 September 2012 was performed. Studies comparing pathologic, biochemical recurrence (BCR), and mortality outcomes between patients receiving direct and delayed curative treatment were included. Studies presenting single-arm results following AS were excluded.

Evidence synthesis

Seventeen studies were included: 13 on radical prostatectomy, 3 on radiation therapy, and 1 combined both. A total of 34 517 PCa patients receiving radical local therapy between 1981 and 2009 were described. Some studies included low-risk PCa only; others included a wider spectrum of disease. Four studies found a significant effect of treatment delay on outcomes in multivariate analysis. Two included low-risk patients only, but it was unknown whether AS was applied or repeat biopsy triggered active therapy during AS. The two other studies found a negative effect on BCR rates of 2.5–9 mo delay in higher risk patients (respectively defined as any with T ≥2b, prostate-specific antigen >10, Gleason score >6, >34–50% positive cores; or D’Amico intermediate risk-group). All studies were retrospective and nonrandomised. Reasons for delay were not always clear, and time-to-event analyses may be subject to bias.

Conclusions

Treatment delay of several months or even years does not appear to affect outcomes of men with low-risk PCa. Limited data suggest treatment delay may have an impact on men with non–low-risk PCa. Most AS protocols suggest a confirmatory biopsy to avoid delaying treatment in those who harbour higher risk disease that was initially misclassified.     

Neoadjuvant Hormonal Therapy Use and the Risk of Death in Men with Prostate Cancer Treated with Brachytherapy Who Have No or at Least a Single Risk Factor for Coronary Artery Disease

Background

Neoadjuvant hormone therapy (NHT) use is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (ACM) in men with a history of coronary artery disease (CAD)–induced congestive heart failure (CHF) or myocardial infarction (MI). However, its effect in men with no or at least a single risk factor for CAD stratified by prostate cancer (PCa) aggressiveness is unknown.

Objective

To assess whether NHT use affects the risk of ACM in men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk PCa treated with brachytherapy who have no or at least a single risk factor for CAD.

Design, setting, and participants

This retrospective study cohort consisted of 5411 men with low-risk PCa (prostate-specific antigen [PSA] <10 ng/ml, Gleason score 6, and clinical stage T1–T2a); 4365 men with intermediate-risk PCa (PSA 10–20 ng/ml or Gleason score <8 or clinical stage <T3); and 1360 men with localized or locally advanced, high-risk PCa consecutively treated in a community-based, multi-institutional setting between 1991 and 2006. CAD risk factors included at least a history of diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, or hypertension. The median follow-up for men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk PCa were 4.1, 4.4, and 4.6 yr, respectively.

Interventions

Men were treated with or without a median duration of 4 mo of NHT followed by brachytherapy with or without supplemental external-beam radiation therapy (EBRT).

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Cox regression multivariable analyses were performed to assess whether NHT use affected the risk of ACM in men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk PCa, adjusting for age; year of brachytherapy; supplemental EBRT use; the presence of CAD risk factors; treatment propensity score; and known PCa prognostic factors, including pretreatment PSA level, biopsy Gleason score, and clinical stage.

Results and limitations

NHT use was associated with a significantly increased risk of ACM in men with low-risk PCa (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–1.51; p < 0.01) but not in men with intermediate-risk (adjusted HR: 1.13; 95% CI, 0.96–1.35; p = 0.15) or high-risk PCa (adjusted HR: 0.86; 95% CI, 0.66–1.13; p = 0.28). Using an interaction model for the low-risk group, NHT use was associated with a significantly increased risk of ACM in the subgroup of men with at least a single CAD risk factor (adjusted HR: 1.36; 95% CI, 1.07–1.74; p = 0.01) but not for men with no CAD risk factors (adjusted HR: 1.19; 95% CI, 0.95–1.51; p = 0.13).

Conclusions

For men with no or at least a single risk factor for CAD, NHT use is associated with an increased risk of ACM in the setting of low-risk but not intermediate- or high-risk PCa. This effect is driven by the subgroup of men with at least a single risk factor for CAD. These results warrant prospective validation given the widespread use of NHT for prostate downsizing prior to brachytherapy.     

Potential Impact of Adding Genetic Markers to Clinical Parameters in Predicting Prostate Biopsy Outcomes in Men Following an Initial Negative Biopsy: Findings from the REDUCE Trial

Background

Several germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been consistently associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk.

Objective

To determine whether there is an improvement in PCa risk prediction by adding these SNPs to existing predictors of PCa.

Design, setting, and participants

Subjects included men in the placebo arm of the randomized Reduction by Dutasteride of Prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE) trial in whom germline DNA was available. All men had an initial negative prostate biopsy and underwent study-mandated biopsies at 2 yr and 4 yr. Predictive performance of baseline clinical parameters and/or a genetic score based on 33 established PCa risk-associated SNPs was evaluated.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were used to compare different models with different predictors. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess changes in risk prediction by adding genetic markers.

Results and limitations

Among 1654 men, genetic score was a significant predictor of positive biopsy, even after adjusting for known clinical variables and family history (p = 3.41 × 10⁻⁸). The AUC for the genetic score exceeded that of any other PCa predictor at 0.59. Adding the genetic score to the best clinical model improved the AUC from 0.62 to 0.66 (p < 0.001), reclassified PCa risk in 33% of men (NRI: 0.10; p = 0.002), resulted in higher net benefit from DCA, and decreased the number of biopsies needed to detect the same number of PCa instances. The benefit of adding the genetic score was greatest among men at intermediate risk (25th percentile to 75th percentile). Similar results were found for high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa. A major limitation of this study was its focus on white patients only.

Conclusions

Adding genetic markers to current clinical parameters may improve PCa risk prediction. The improvement is modest but may be helpful for better determining the need for repeat prostate biopsy. The clinical impact of these results requires further study.     

Initial Prostate Biopsy: Development and Internal Validation of a Biopsy-specific Nomogram Based on the Prostate Cancer Antigen 3 Assay

Background

Urinary prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) assay in combination with established clinical risk factors improves the identification of men at risk of harboring prostate cancer (PCa) at initial biopsy (IBX).

Objective

To develop and validate internally the first IBX-specific PCA3-based nomogram that allows an individual assessment of a man's risk of harboring any PCa and high-grade PCa (HGPCa).

Design, setting, and participants

Clinical and biopsy data including urinary PCA3 score of 692 referred IBX men at risk of PCa were collected within two prospective multi-institutional studies.

Intervention

IBX (≥10 biopsy cores) with standard risk factor assessment including prebiopsy urinary PCA3 measurement.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

PCA3 assay cut-off thresholds were investigated. Regression coefficients of logistic risk factor analyses were used to construct specific sets of PCA3-based nomograms to predict any PCa and HGPCa at IBX. Accuracy estimates for the presence of any PCa and HGPCa were quantified using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic analysis and compared with a clinical model. Bootstrap resamples were used for internal validation. Decision curve analyses quantified the clinical net benefit related to the novel PCA3-based IBX nomogram versus the clinical model.

Results and limitations

Any PCa and HGPCa were diagnosed in 46% (n = 318) and 20% (n = 137), respectively. Age, prostate-specific antigen, digital rectal examination, prostate volume, and PCA3 were independent predictors of PCa at IBX (all p < 0.001). The PCA3-based IBX nomograms significantly outperformed the clinical models without PCA3 (all p < 0.001). Accuracy was increased by 4.5–7.1% related to PCA3 inclusion. When applying nomogram-derived PCa probability thresholds ≤30%, only a few patients with HGPCa (≤2%) will be missed while avoiding up to 55% of unnecessary biopsies. External validation of the PCA3-based IBX-specific nomogram is warranted.

Conclusions

The internally validated PCA3-based IBX-specific nomogram outperforms a clinical prediction model without PCA3 for the prediction of any PCa, leading to the avoidance of unnecessary biopsies while missing only a few cases of HGPCa. Our findings support the concepts of a combination of novel markers with established clinical risk factors and the superiority of decision tools that are specific to a clinical scenario.     

Serum Testosterone and Dihydrotestosterone and Prostate Cancer Risk in the Placebo Arm of the Reduction by Dutasteride of Prostate Cancer Events Trial

Background

Findings of studies on the association between androgens and prostate cancer (PCa) are mixed. Androgens may affect prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, thereby influencing biopsy recommendations. Also, androgens may stimulate prostate growth at very low levels with no additional effects at higher levels (saturation model).

Objective

To test whether androgens were associated with PCa risk in the placebo arm of a prospective study in which biopsies were performed regardless of PSA level.

Design, setting, and participants

Of 8122 men in the Reduction by Dutasteride of Prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE) trial, 4073 men (50.1%) received placebo. Key entry criteria were PSA 2.5–10 ng/ml and one prior negative biopsy.

Intervention

Per-protocol biopsies at 2 and 4 yr; for-cause biopsies at physician discretion.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Multivariable logistic regression was used to test the association between baseline log-transformed testosterone and dihydrotestosterone (DHT) levels and the risk of detecting either PCa or low-grade PCa (Gleason score <6) compared with high-grade PCa (Gleason score >7). In secondary analysis, we stratified the analysis by low baseline androgen levels (testosterone <10 nmol/l; DHT <0.76 nmol/l) compared with normal baseline androgen levels.

Results and limitations

Of 4073 men, 3255 (79.9%) had at least one biopsy after randomization and were analyzed. Androgen levels tested continuously or by quintiles were generally unrelated to PCa detection or grade. PCa detection was similar among men with low compared with normal baseline testosterone levels (25.5% and 25.1%; p = 0.831). In secondary analysis, higher testosterone levels at baseline were associated with higher PCa detection (odds ratio: 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–1.43; p = 0.006) only if men had low baseline testosterone (<10 nmol/l). For men with normal baseline testosterone (≥10 nmol/l), higher testosterone levels at baseline were unrelated to PCa risk (p = 0.33). No association was found for DHT and PCa (all p > 0.85).

Conclusions

Baseline serum testosterone and DHT levels were unrelated to PCa detection or grade. Our findings of the lowest testosterone levels being associated with the lowest PCa risk with no further changes with higher testosterone support a saturation model but must be confirmed in future studies using an a priori defined hypothesis.

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier

NCT00056407.     

ERG Protein Expression in Diagnostic Specimens Is Associated with Increased Risk of Progression During Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer

Background

Compelling biomarkers identifying prostate cancer patients with a high risk of progression during active surveillance (AS) are needed.

Objective

To examine the association between ERG expression at diagnosis and the risk of progression during AS.

Design, setting, and participants

This study included 265 patients followed on AS with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements, clinical examinations, and 10–12 core rebiopsies from 2002 to 2012 in a prospectively maintained database. ERG immunohistochemical staining was performed on diagnostic paraffin-embedded formalin-fixed sections with a ready-to-use kit (anti-ERG, EPR3864). Men were characterised as ERG positive if a minimum of one tumour focus demonstrated ERG expression.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Overall AS progression was defined as clinical progression: increased clinical tumour category ≥cT2b by digital rectal examination and ultrasound, and/or histopathologic progression: upgrade of Gleason score, more than three positive cores or bilateral positive cores, and/or PSA progression: PSA doubling time <3 yr. Risk of progression was analysed using multiple cause-specific Cox regression and stratified cumulative incidences (Aalen-Johansen method). Curatively intended treatment, watchful waiting, and death without progression were treated as competing events.

Results and limitations

A total of 121 of 142 ERG-negative and 96 of 123 ERG-positive patients had complete diagnostic information. In competing risk models, the ERG-positive group showed significantly higher incidences of overall AS progression (p < 0.0001) and of the subgroups PSA progression (p < 0.0001) and histopathologic progression (p < 0.0001). The 2-yr cumulative incidence of overall AS progression was 21.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.3–29.1) in the ERG-negative group compared with 58.6% (95% CI, 48.7–68.5) in the ERG-positive group. ERG positivity was a significant predictor of overall AS progression in multiple Cox regression (hazard ratio: 2.45; 95% CI, 1.62–3.72; p < 0.0001). The main limitation of this study is its observational nature.

Conclusions

In our study, ERG positivity at diagnosis can be used to estimate the risk of progression during AS. If confirmed, ERG status can be used to individualise AS programmes.

Patient summary

The tissue biomarker ERG identifies active surveillance patients with an increased risk of disease progression.     

Prognostic Parameters,Complications, and Oncologic and Functional Outcome of Salvage Radical Prostatectomy for Locally Recurrent Prostate Cancer after 21st-Century Radiotherapy

Background

Salvage radical prostatectomy (SRP) for radiorecurrent prostate cancer (PCa) is a second local treatment with curative intent in patients with true organ-confined recurrent PCa.

Objective

We evaluated preoperative prognostic risk factors to predict organ-confined, locally recurrent PCa after primary radiotherapy (RT).

Design, setting, and participants

Fifty-five men with biopsy-proven, locally recurrent PCa underwent SRP and extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND) after external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or low- or high-dose brachytherapy.

Measurements

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA), clinical stage, biopsy Gleason score prior to RT and SRP, PSA nadir, time to recurrence, PSA doubling time (PSA DT), PSA prior to surgery, and pathohistology of the SRP specimen were analysed to predict organ-confined recurrent disease. Uni- and multivariate statistical analysis was performed.

Results and limitations

Forty (72.7%) and 15 (27.3%) patients demonstrated organ-confined and locally advanced PCa, respectively. Eleven patients (20%) and seven patients (12.7%) had lymph node metastases and positive surgical margins (PSM), respectively. On multivariate analysis, biopsy Gleason score prior to SRP (p = 0.02), <50% positive biopsy cores (p = 0.001), PSA DT >12 mo (p = 0.001), and low-dose brachytherapy (p = 0.001) were significant predictors of organ-confined PCa with negative surgical margins (NSM). Limitations of the study are its retrospective nature and the relatively low number of patients.

Conclusions

SRP is a surgically challenging but effective secondary local treatment of radiorecurrent PCa with curative intent. The identified predictive parameters will help to select patients most suitable for SRP with long-term cure and good functional outcome.     

Prostate cancer antigen 3 score accurately predicts tumour volume and might help in selecting prostate cancer patients for active surveillance

Background

The optimal selection of prostate cancer (PCa) patients for active surveillance (AS) is currently being debated.

Objective

To assess the impact of urinary prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) score as an AS criterion instead of and in addition to the current criteria.

Design, setting, and participants

We prospectively studied 106 consecutive low-risk PCa patients (prostate-specific antigen [PSA] ≤10 ng/ml, clinical stage T1c–T2a, and biopsy Gleason score 6) who underwent a PCA3 urine test before radical prostatectomy (RP).

Measurements

Performance of AS criteria (biopsy criteria, PCA3 score, PSA density, and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] findings) was tested in predicting four prognostic pathologic findings in RP specimens: (1) pT3–4 disease; (2) overall unfavourable disease (OUD) defined by pT3–4 disease and/or pathologic primary Gleason pattern 4; (3) tumour volume <0.5 cm³; and (4) insignificant PCa.

Results and limitations

The PCA3 score was strongly correlated with the tumour volume in a linear regression analysis (p < 0.001, r = 0.409). The risk of having a cancer ≥0.5 cm³ and a significant PCa was increased three-fold in men with a PCA3 score of ≥25 compared with men with a PCA3 score of <25 with most AS biopsy criteria used. There was a trend towards higher PCA3 scores in patients with unfavourable and non–organ-confined disease and Gleason >6 cancers. In a multivariate analysis taking into account each AS criterion, a high PCA3 score (≥25) was an important predictive factor for tumour volume ≥0.5 cm³ (odds ratio [OR]: 5.4; p = 0.010) and significant PCa (OR: 12.7; p = 0.003). Biopsy criteria and MRI findings were significantly associated with OUD (OR: 3.9 and 5.0, respectively; p = 0.030 and p = 0.025, respectively).

Conclusions

PCA3 score may be a useful marker to improve the selection for AS in addition to the current AS criteria. With a predictive cut-off of 25, PCA3 score is strongly indicative for tumour volume and insignificant PCa.     

Prospective Evaluation of an Extended 21-Core Biopsy Scheme as Initial Prostate Cancer Diagnostic Strategy

Background

The debate on the optimal number of prostate biopsy core samples that should be taken as an initial strategy is open.

Objective

To prospectively evaluate the diagnostic yield of a 21-core biopsy protocol as an initial strategy for prostate cancer (PCa) detection.

Design, setting, and participants

During 10 yr, 2753 consecutive patients underwent a 21-core biopsy scheme for their first set of biopsy specimens.

Intervention

All patients underwent a standardized 21-core protocol with cores mapped for location.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

The PCa detection rate of each biopsy scheme (6, 12, or 21 cores) was compared using a McNemar test. Predictive factors of the diagnostic yield achieved by a 21-core scheme were studied using logistic regression analyses.

Results and limitations

PCa detection rates using 6 sextant biopsies, 12 cores, and 21 cores were 32.5%, 40.4%, and 43.3%, respectively. The 12-core procedure improved the cancer detection rate by 19.4% (p = 0.004), and the 21-biopsy scheme improved the rate by 6.7% overall (p < 0.001). The six far lateral cores were the most efficient in terms of detection rate. The diagnostic yield of the 21-core protocol was >10% in prostates with volume >70 ml, in men with a prostate-specific antigen level < 4 ng/ml, with a prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) <0.20 ng/ml per gram. A PSAD <0.20 ng/ml per gram was the strongest independent predictive factor of the diagnostic yield offered by the 21-core scheme (p < 0.001). The 21-core protocol significantly increased the rate of PCa eligible for active surveillance (62.5% vs 48.4%; p = 0.036) than those detected by a 12-core scheme without statistically increasing the rate of insignificant PCa (p = 0.503).

Conclusions

A 21-core biopsy scheme improves significantly the PCa detection rate compared with a 12-core protocol. We identified a cut-off PSAD (0.20 ng/ml per gram) below which an extended 21-core scheme might be systematically proposed to significantly improve the overall detection rate without increasing the rate of detected insignificant PCa.     

Prostate Cancer (PCa) Risk Variants and Risk of Fatal PCa in the National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium

Background

Screening and diagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) is hampered by an inability to predict who has the potential to develop fatal disease and who has indolent cancer. Studies have identified multiple genetic risk loci for PCa incidence, but it is unknown whether they could be used as biomarkers for PCa-specific mortality (PCSM).

Objective

To examine the association of 47 established PCa risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with PCSM.

Design, setting, and participants

We included 10 487 men who had PCa and 11 024 controls, with a median follow-up of 8.3 yr, during which 1053 PCa deaths occurred.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

The main outcome was PCSM. The risk allele was defined as the allele associated with an increased risk for PCa in the literature. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the hazard ratios of each SNP with time to progression to PCSM after diagnosis. We also used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios for each risk SNP, comparing fatal PCa cases to controls.

Results and limitations

Among the cases, we found that 8 of the 47 SNPs were significantly associated (p < 0.05) with time to PCSM. The risk allele of rs11672691 (intergenic) was associated with an increased risk for PCSM, while 7 SNPs had risk alleles inversely associated (rs13385191 [C2orf43], rs17021918 [PDLIM5], rs10486567 [JAZF1], rs6465657 [LMTK2], rs7127900 (intergenic), rs2735839 [KLK3], rs10993994 [MSMB], rs13385191 [C2orf43]). In the case-control analysis, 22 SNPs were associated (p < 0.05) with the risk of fatal PCa, but most did not differentiate between fatal and nonfatal PCa. Rs11672691 and rs10993994 were associated with both fatal and nonfatal PCa, while rs6465657, rs7127900, rs2735839, and rs13385191 were associated with nonfatal PCa only.

Conclusions

Eight established risk loci were associated with progression to PCSM after diagnosis. Twenty-two SNPs were associated with fatal PCa incidence, but most did not differentiate between fatal and nonfatal PCa. The relatively small magnitudes of the associations do not translate well into risk prediction, but these findings merit further follow-up, because they may yield important clues about the complex biology of fatal PCa.

Patient summary

In this report, we assessed whether established PCa risk variants could predict PCSM. We found eight risk variants associated with PCSM: One predicted an increased risk of PCSM, while seven were associated with decreased risk. Larger studies that focus on fatal PCa are needed to identify more markers that could aid prediction.     

The Role of Biopsy Core Number in Selecting Prostate Cancer Patients for Active Surveillance

Background

Studies offer wide variations in inclusion criteria for active surveillance (AS) in prostate cancer (PCa), but the role of the biopsy core number has not been thoroughly assessed.

Objective

To evaluate the impact of the biopsy core number on the risk of misclassification for AS eligibility.

Design, setting, and participants

: This prospective study included 411 men eligible for AS who fulfilled at least one of four of the criteria reported in the literature groupings among a screening cohort of 2917 patients.

Intervention

All patients underwent a 21-core biopsy with cores mapped by location and acted as controls of themselves for the analysis of biopsy core number (6-, 12- and 21-core schemes). Radical prostatectomy (RP) was performed in 297 men (72%).

Measurements

The number of included patients, PCa extent on biopsy, rate of unfavorable disease in RP specimens, and biochemical recurrence-free survival were compared as a function of (1) the different criteria groupings for AS and (2) the biopsy core number (6, 12, or 21).

Results and limitations

Of the 1104 patients with PCa, the proportion eligible for AS ranged from 22.5% to 35.4% based on AS criteria. In men who fulfilled AS criteria only in a 12-core strategy, tumor length and percentage of cancer involvement on biopsy were significantly greater than in those who fulfilled AS criteria in a 21-core scheme. The rate of unfavorable disease on RP specimens was also higher in the former group, from 28.6% to 35.9% relative to AS criteria (p = 0.014, 0.044, and 0.113 in groups 2, 3, and 4, respectively).

Conclusions

Men eligible for AS based on a 21-core strategy have cancers with a lower extent of disease on biopsies and a lower risk of unfavorable disease on RP specimens regardless of how AS criteria are defined, compared with men eligible in a 12-core scheme.     

Prospective Multicentre Evaluation of PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG Gene Fusions as Diagnostic and Prognostic Urinary Biomarkers for Prostate Cancer

Background

Prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) and v-ets erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene homolog (TMPRSS2-ERG) gene fusions are promising prostate cancer (PCa) specific biomarkers that can be measured in urine.

Objective

To evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of Progensa PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG gene fusions (as individual biomarkers and as a panel) for PCa in a prospective multicentre setting.

Design, setting, and participants

At six centres, post–digital rectal examination first-catch urine specimens prior to prostate biopsies were prospectively collected from 497 men. We assessed the predictive value of Progensa PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG (quantitative nucleic acid amplification assay to detect TMPRSS2-ERG messenger RNA [mRNA]) for PCa, Gleason score, clinical tumour stage, and PCa significance (individually and as a marker panel). This was compared with serum prostate-specific antigen and the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator. In a subgroup (n = 61) we evaluated biomarker association with prostatectomy outcome.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating curves were used.

Results and limitations

Urine samples of 443 men contained sufficient mRNA for marker analysis. PCa was diagnosed in 196 of 443 men. Both PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG had significant additional predictive value to the ERSPC risk calculator parameters in multivariate analysis (p < 0.001 and resp. p = 0.002). The area under the curve (AUC) increased from 0.799 (ERSPC risk calculator), to 0.833 (ERSPC risk calculator plus PCA3), to 0.842 (ERSPC risk calculator plus PCA3 plus TMPRSS2-ERG) to predict PCa. Sensitivity of PCA3 increased from 68% to 76% when combined with TMPRSS2-ERG. TMPRSS2-ERG added significant predictive value to the ERSPC risk calculator to predict biopsy Gleason score (p < 0.001) and clinical tumour stage (p = 0.023), whereas PCA3 did not.

Conclusions

TMPRSS2-ERG had independent additional predictive value to PCA3 and the ERSPC risk calculator parameters for predicting PCa. TMPRSS2-ERG had prognostic value, whereas PCA3 did not. Implementing the novel urinary biomarker panel PCA3 and TMPRSS2-ERG into clinical practice would lead to a considerable reduction of the number of prostate biopsies.     

A New Risk Classification System for Therapeutic Decision Making with Intermediate-risk Prostate Cancer Patients Undergoing Dose-escalated External-beam Radiation Therapy

Background

The management of intermediate-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is controversial, in part due to the heterogeneous nature of patients falling within this classification.

Objective

We propose a new risk stratification system for intermediate-risk PCa to aid in prognosis and therapeutic decision making.

Design, setting, and participants

Between 1992 and 2007, 1024 patients with National Comprehensive Cancer Network intermediate-risk PCa and complete biopsy information were treated with definitive external-beam radiation therapy (EBRT) utilizing doses ≥81 Gy. Unfavorable intermediate-risk (UIR) PCa was defined as any intermediate-risk patient with a primary Gleason pattern of 4, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC) ≥50%, or multiple intermediate-risk factors (IRFs; cT2b–c, prostate-specific antigen [PSA] 10–20, or Gleason score 7).

Intervention

All patients received EBRT with ≥81 Gy with or without neoadjuvant and concurrent androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT).

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using a Cox proportional hazards model for PSA recurrence-free survival (PSA-RFS) and distant metastasis (DM). PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) was analyzed using a competing-risk method.

Results and limitations

Median follow-up was 71 mo. Primary Gleason pattern 4 (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.26; p < 0.0001), PPBC ≥50% (HR: 2.72; p = 0.0007), and multiple IRFs (HR: 2.20; p = 0.008) all were significant predictors of increased DM in multivariate analyses. Primary Gleason pattern 4 (HR: 5.23; p < 0.0001) and PPBC ≥50% (HR: 4.08; p = 0.002) but not multiple IRFs (HR: 1.74; p = 0.21) independently predicted for increased PCSM. Patients with UIR disease had inferior PSA-RFS (HR: 2.37; p < 0.0001), DM (HR: 4.34; p = 0.0003), and PCSM (HR: 7.39; p = 0.007) compared with those with favorable intermediate-risk disease, despite being more likely to receive neoadjuvant ADT. Short follow-up and retrospective study design are the primary limitations.

Conclusions

Intermediate-risk PCa is a heterogeneous collection of diseases that can be separated into favorable and unfavorable subsets. These groups likely will benefit from divergent therapeutic paradigms.     

Performance of the Prostate Cancer Antigen 3 (PCA3) Gene and Prostate-Specific Antigen in Prescreened Men: Exploring the Value of PCA3 for a First-line Diagnostic Test

Background

The performance characteristics of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) as a diagnostic test for prostate cancer (PCa) are poor. The performance of the PCa antigen 3 (PCA3) gene as a primary diagnostic is unknown.

Objective

Assess the value of PCA3 as a first-line diagnostic test.

Design, setting and participants

Participants included men aged 63–75 who were invited for rescreening in the period from September 2007 to February 2009 within the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, Rotterdam section.

Interventions

Lateral sextant biopsies were performed if the serum PSA value was ≥3.0 ng/ml and/or the PCA3 score was ≥10.

Measurements

Measurements included distribution and correlation of PSA value and PCA3 score and their relation to the number of cases and the characteristics of PCa detected. Additional value of PCA3 was included in men with previous negative biopsy and/or PSA <3.0 ng/ml.

Results and limitations

In 721 men, all biopsied, 122 PCa cases (16.9%) were detected. Correlation between PSA and PCA3 is poor (Spearman rank correlation: ρ = 0.14; p < 0.0001). A PSA ≥3.0 ng/ml misses 64.7% of the total PCa that can be detected with the sextant biopsy technique and 57.9% of serious PCa (T2a or higher and/or Gleason grade ≥4, n = 19), and 68.2% of biopsies could have been avoided; the respective data for PCA3 ≥35 are 32%, 26.3%, and 51.7%. Performance of PCA3 in men with low PSA (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.63) and/or previous negative biopsy (AUC: 0.68) is unclear but has limited reliability due to small numbers.

Conclusions

PCA3 as a first-line screening test shows improvement of the performance characteristics and identification of serious disease compared with PSA in this prescreened population.