CCI评分结合改良POSSUM评分评估老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者预后临床分析

目的应用查尔森合并症指数(CCI)联合改良生理学和手术严重度评分(POSSUM),对老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者进行风险评估,探讨两种评分系统应用的价值。方法回顾性分析自2010-01—2014-12诊治的131例年龄≥60岁的老年股骨粗隆间骨折的临床资料,按治疗转归分为有并发症组和无并发症组,记录各项影响因素及CCI评分、改良POSSUM评分。结果改良POSSUM生理学评分、CCI评分与患者住院期间预后独立相关(P0.05)。改良POSSUM生理学评分、CCI评分和两者联合预测概率的曲线下面积[AUC(95%CI)]依次为0.657、0.649、0.668。结论联合应用改良POSSUM评分和CCI评分比单独应用一种评分系统能够更好地评估患者的预后。     

POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统对老年股骨颈骨折手术风险的预测研究

目的 探讨生理学和手术严重度评分系统,即POSSUM和P-POSSOM评分系统,对老年股骨颈骨折手术的手术风险预测价值.方法 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院骨科于2010年1月-2012年5月收治因股骨颈骨折行人工关节置换手术治疗的老年患者108例,应用POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统预测患者手术病死率和并发症发病率,分析人工髋关节置换手术风险预测值和观察值之间的差异.同时对病例资料进行分组比较,分析不同组别间的预测情况是否存在差异.结果 根据POSSUM评分系统预测,47例患者术后发生并发症,平均并发症发病率为43.52％,而实际发生并发症37例,实际并发症发病率为34.26％,预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.238);预测11例死亡,平均病死率为10.19％,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85％,预测值明显高于实际值.根据P-POSSUM评分系统预测的病死率(预测死亡4例,平均病死率为3.70％,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85％),预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.625).以POSSUM评分得分40分为界分组,两组并发症发病率及病死率的预测值与实际值分组比较差异无统计学意义(P =0.527,P =0.285).结论 POSSUM评分系统能较好地预测老年股骨颈骨折手术患者并发症发病率,但过高估计手术病死率;P-POSSUM评分系统能准确地预测手术病死率,对于高危组患者的预测结果尤为满意.     

股骨近端防旋髓内钉治疗老年人髋部骨折疗效的多因素分析

目的研究股骨近端防旋髓内钉(PFNA)治疗老年股骨粗隆间骨折的疗效,并分析影响预后的因素。方法 76例股骨粗隆间骨折患者接受PFNA内固定治疗,记录患者一般情况、骨折类型、手术时间、术中出血量、围手术期并发症,患侧髋关节Harris评分。结果术后并发症发生率:表浅软组织感染2.6%(2例),心脑血管意外3.9%(3例),肺炎6.6%(5例),老年谵妄15.8%(12例),术后DVT 5.3%(4例),应激性溃疡2.6%(2例)。多因素回归分析显示年龄、骨折稳定性(股骨内后侧皮质)、ASA评分是骨折愈合后髋关节功能的预测因子(P=0.032,P=0.032,P=0.038),性别、入院后早期手术、手术时间与Harris评分差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论 PFNA内固定治疗老年股骨粗隆间骨折创伤较小,但围手术期仍有较多并发症。骨折稳定性、患者年龄、ASA评分与骨折愈合后髋关节功能相关。     

生理学和手术侵袭度评分在肺癌手术风险预测中的应用

目的探讨生理学和手术侵袭度评分(Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration ofMortality and Morbidity,POSSUM)预测肺癌患者术后并发症发生率和死亡率的应用价值,为临床治疗决策提供参考。方法回顾性分析2007年1月至2010年10月新疆医科大学第一附属医院住院期间接受肺癌手术治疗的179例原发性肺癌患者的临床资料,其中男124例,女55例;年龄(59.2±11.4)岁。术前应用POSSUM评分进行评分,将每位患者评分结果代入POSSUM评分的Copeland方程计算出预测的术后并发症发生率和死亡率。统计179例患者中术后实际并发症例数和死亡例数,将其分为无并发症组和有并发症组,比较两组POSSUM评分情况、并发症与死亡的实际值与预测值。对术后实际并发症和死亡发生的相关临床因素进行单因素分析。结果共有78例患者术后发生并发症,有并发症组生理学评分、手术侵袭度评分均明显高于无并发症组[生理学评分:(16.11±2.53)分vs.(14.88±1.86)分,P=0.000;手术侵袭度评分:(13.47±2.83)分vs.(12.88±2.57)分,P=0.000]。POSSUM评分预测术后并发症65例,实际并发症78例,差异无统计学意义(χ2=1.968,P=0.161)。POSSUM评分预测死亡12例,实际死亡3例,差异有统计学意义(χ2=5.636,P=0.018)。单因素分析结果显示年龄、血红蛋白量、术前肺功能、手术方式和手术时间均与术后并发症的发生相关;其中仅血红蛋白量与术后死亡的发生相关。结论 POSSUM评分能较好地预测肺癌患者术后并发症,但对术后死亡存在过度预测。5个临床观察的单因素具有较好的临床应用价值。     

POSSUM评分系统预测胰十二指肠切除术手术风险的价值

目的 探讨POSSUM评分系统在预测胰十二指肠切除术(PD)手术风险中的价值.方法 采用POSSUM评分系统(含12项生理学指标和6项手术学指标)对2005年1月至2007年12月在四川大学华西医院肝胆胰外科接受PD手术的265例患者的资料前瞻性地进行评分,根据公式计算出预期术后并发症和术后病死率的发生情况;按Clavien术后并发症诊断标准和国内参考标准分别统计分析术后实际并发症的发生情况,并与预期并发症发生情况进行比较.结果 265例患者的生理学评分为12-24分,平均15分;手术学评分为14～24分,平均17分;POSSUM评分值为0.24～0.88分,预期平均并发症发生率为43.8%.发生例数为116例;实际观察有105例术后发生不同程度的并发症,实际并发症发生率为39.6%,与预测数比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05).进一步的分层分析发现,POSSUM评分为0.4～0.8分时预测最为准确;POSSUM评分系统在预测术后总的病死率时价值不大,但对于POSSUM评分≥0.5分患者的病死率预测仍有意义.结论 POSSUM评分系统能较好地预测PD的手术风险,对于PD手术及术后处理决策有指导意义.     

老年髋部骨折患者术前风险评估

背景:目前临床上有多种风险预测评估系统及相关危险因素,均可在一定程度上对患者的病情严重性进行客观评估,但尚无专门针对老年髋部骨折患者的手术风险预测系统。目的:比较老年髋部骨折患者手术风险评分系统(ORSSHF)与生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM),探索能客观而准确反映该类患者手术风险的预测方法。方法:依据统计学及POSSUM评分系统建立ORSSHF评分系统,分别应用ORSSHF和POSSUM评分系统回顾性研究2011年3月至2012年3月接受手术治疗的112例老年髋部骨折患者,男47例,女65例;年龄60～94岁,平均(74.6±6.8)岁。按术前风险评分进行分组,用统计学方法比较两种评分系统对该类患者手术并发症和死亡率的预测价值。结果:应用POSSUM和ORSSHF评分系统进行预测,发生并发症例数分别为50例和44例,死亡例数分别为6例和4例,实际发生并发症36例、死亡3例。前者预测值显著高于实际值(P<0.05);后者预测值和实际值无统计学差异。结论:POSSUM评分系统评估老年髋部骨折患者术前风险存在一定局限性;ORSSHF评分系统能较准确地评估该类患者的术前风险及预测术后并发症和死亡率,一定程度上弥补POSSUM评分系统的不足。     

POSSUM评分预测胃肠道肿瘤患者术后并发症发生率和死亡率的价值

目的探讨POSSUM评分系统评估胃肠道肿瘤患者手术后并发症发生率和死亡率的临床价值。方法对171例胃肠道肿瘤患者分别在术后立即进行生理学和手术侵袭度评分,预测术后发生并发症和死亡的危险性,同时观察术后并发症发生率和死亡率的实际值,并与预测值进行比较。结果POSSUM评分预测并发症发生例数为75例,与实际并发症发生的96例比较,差异无显著性意义(P=0.3529)。POSSUM评分预测死亡例数为22例,与实际死亡的17例比较,差异也无显著性意义(P=0.3326)。结论POSSUM评分能较好地评估胃肠道肿瘤手术的预后。     

改良生理学和手术严重度评分系统预测骨盆髋臼骨折手术并发症发生概率的价值

目的 探讨改良生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM评分系统)预测骨盆髋臼骨折手术并发症发生概率的应用价值. 方法 回顾性分析1997年1月至2006年5月94例骨盆髋臼骨折患者术后住院期间并发症情况,我们按照骨科及骨盆髋臼骨折的特点对POSSUM评分系统进行改良:将手术严重度指标中以手术入路代替腹膜污染;将多种手术同时进行改为手术持续时间;将合并伤代替癌症;将手术大小和手术类型按照骨科手术特点进行4级制进行评分.应用POSSUM评分系统预测患者术后并发症发生概率,比较并发症组与无并发症组间各评分的差异.画出ROC曲线,描述符合程度,评价预测能力,确定截断点. 结果 并发症组38例,平均生理学评分17.26±2.84,平均手术严重度评分19.50±5.14,平均年龄(34.50±12.05)岁,伤后至手术时间(21.05±25.09)d;无并发症组56例,平均生理学评分16.04±2.77,平均手术严重度评分13.00±3.81,平均年龄(36.40±11.36)岁,伤后至手术时间(18.09±27.20)d.应用改良POSSUM评分系统评估:并发症组生理学评分、手术严重度评分均明显高于无并发症组,差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05);并发症组年龄、外伤至手术时间与无并发症组比较无差异均无统计学意义(P＞0.05).应用POSSUM评分系统预测并发症发生概率P=43%为截断点,灵敏度(SE)=73.68%,特异度(SP)=80.36%,符合率为77.66%,ROC曲线面积为0.856. 结论 改良POSSUM评分系统可用来准确预测骨盆髋臼骨折术后并发症发生概率,本评分系统可对患者术前的危重程度进行评价,当得分超过截断点时手术风险过大,不能耐受手术,需进行对症治疗或选择微创手术,待评分降至截断点范围内再行手术治疗,降低手术风险,确保手术安全.     

改良POSSUM及P-POSSUM评分在老年髋部骨折手术风险评估中的应用价值

目的 应用改良的生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM及P-POSSUM)对老年髋部骨折手术死亡率和并发症率进行评估探讨对手术风险评估的价值.方法 应用POSSUM及P-POSSUM,预测191例老年髋部骨折术后30 d内并发症率及死亡率,比较其预测价值.以并发症率50%为界,分为中低风险组(101例)及高风险组(9...     

POSSUM评分系统预测肝癌患者术后并发症发生率及病死率的意义

目的 :探讨POSSUM评分系统预测肝癌患者术后并发症发生率及病死率的临床意义。方法 :2009~2014年294例手术治疗的肝癌患者进行POSSUM及P-POSSUM评分,预测术后并发症发生率及病死率,并分别与实际并发症发生率及病死率比较。结果:POSSUM评分系统预测并发症发生率18%(53/294),实际发生率14%(42/294),差异无统计学意义(P=0.218),预测病死率5.1%(15/294),实际病死率1.02%(3/294),差异有统计学意义(P=0.004)。P-POSSUM预测病死率2.4%(7/294),实际病死率1.02%(3/294),差异无统计学意义(P=0.339)。结论:POSSUM评分系统能够较准确地预测肝癌患者术后并发症的发生率,但高估了术后病死率,P-POSSUM预测术后病死率更为准确。     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in assessing outcome after laparoscopic colectomy

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to compare the actual and predicted risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality after laparoscopic colectomy (LAC) calculated using both the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) scoring systems. METHODS: All patients who underwent LAC performed by a single surgeon between March 1999 and December 2000 were analysed. The observed morbidity and mortality rates were compared with those predicted by the POSSUM scoring system, and the observed mortality rate with that predicted by P-POSSUM. The operative severity component of the operative score was sequentially decreased from 4 (standard score for open colectomy) to 2, then 1, in an attempt to correct overprediction. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-one consecutive patients underwent LAC, with a conversion rate of 8.0 per cent. The morbidity rate (6.8 per cent) was significantly lower than the predicted rates calculated with an operative score of 4 or 2 (12.4 per cent, P < 0.001; 9.6 per cent, P = 0.001), but was fully corrected with an operative score of 1 (7.0 per cent, P = 0.325). The observed mortality rate (0.8 per cent) was significantly different from the expected mortality rates calculated using either uncorrected POSSUM (9.6 per cent, P = 0.001) or P-POSSUM (3.5 per cent, P = 0.001). POSSUM (2.6 per cent, P = 0.007) continued to overpredict mortality but P-POSSUM (1.0 per cent, P = 0.001) accurately predicted mortality with an operative score of 1. CONCLUSION: LAC appeared to be associated with lower morbidity and mortality rates than those predicted by the POSSUM scoring system, and with a lower mortality rate than that predicted using the P-POSSUM system.     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems for predicting the mortality in elective neurosurgical patients

A simple way of evaluating surgical outcomes is to compare mortality and morbidity. Such comparisons may be misleading without a proper case mix. The POSSUM scoring system was developed to overcome this problem. The score can be used to derive predictive mortality and morbidity for surgical procedures. POSSUM and a modified version P-POSSUM have been evaluated in various groups of surgical patients for the accuracy of predicting mortality. These scoring systems have not been evaluated in neurosurgical patients. Thus, we tried to evaluate the usefulness of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in neurosurgical patients in predicting in-hospital mortality. POSSUM physiological and operative variables were collected from all neurosurgical patients undergoing elective craniotomy, from April 2005 to Feb 2006. In-hospital mortality was obtained from the hospital mortality register. The physiological score, operative score, POSSUM predicted mortality rate and P-POSSUM predicted mortality rate were calculated using a calculator. The observed number of deaths was compared against the predicted deaths. A total of 285 patients with a mean age of 38 +/- 15 years were studied. Overall observed mortality was nine patients (3.16%). The mortality predicted by the P-POSSUM model was also nine patients (3.16%). Mortality predicted by POSSUM was poor with predicted deaths in 31 patients (11%). The difference between observed and predicted deaths at different risk levels was not significant with P-POSSUM (p = 0.424) and was significantly different with POSSUM score (p < 0.001). P-POSSUM scoring system was highly accurate in predicting the overall mortality in neurosurgical patients. In contrast, POSSUM score was not useful for prediction of mortality.     

Risk evaluation in cutaneous melanoma patients undergoing lymph node dissection: impact of POSSUM

INTRODUCTIONWhen lymphatic metastasis occurs, surgery is the primary treatment modality in melanoma patients. Depending on the tumour stage, patients receive a completion lymph node dissection (CLND) when a positive sentinel node is detected. Patients with clinically evident disease of the regional lymph nodes are recommended to undergo a therapeutic lymph node dissection (TLND). The aim of this study was to assess the morbidity of CLND and TLND and to evaluate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) for preoperative risk adjustment of postoperative morbidity.METHODSThe hospital files of 143 patients who underwent CLND and TLND for malignant melanoma were analysed. The POSSUM score was used to predict morbidity rates after surgery for the total patient group as well as separated for CLND and TLND patients.RESULTSThe overall complication rate was 28.0% and the mortality rate was 0%. The morbidity rate predicted by POSSUM was 32.9%, the mortality 8.3%. Morbidity in patients undergoing CLND was significantly higher with regard to overall wound complications compared with patients with TLND. In these subgroups, POSSUM failed to predict the rates precisely.CONCLUSIONSThe POSSUM score predicted the morbidity of the total patient group accurately but failed to predict the rates in the TLND and CLND subgroups. Patients receiving CLND showed the highest morbidity rates. Preoperative sentinel lymph node biopsy therefore has more influence on postoperative morbidity than the physiological parameters represented in the POSSUM physiological score.     

Evaluation of P-POSSUM scoring system in predicting mortality in patients with hip joint arthroplasty

Itisimportanttopredictapatient srisklevelofoperationaccurately.Theassessmentofoperativeriskmainlydependsonthepatient sclinicalsymptoms,signs,physiologicalparameters,operativeseverity,andsoon.Thephysiologicaland operativeseverityscorefortheenumerationofmortality andmorbidity(POSSUM)wasdesignedbyCopeland etal1in1991,whichhadbeenshowntobebetterthan theacutephysiologyandchronichealthevaluation(APACHE)forestimatingtherisklevel.2However,P POSSUMwasdevelopedin1996byWhitleyetal,3thescholarsof…     

Evaluation of POSSUM scoring system in the treatment of osteoporotic fracture of the hip in elder patients

Objective： To evaluate the applicability of the modified physiological and operative severity score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity （POSSUM） scoring system in predicting mortality in the patients undergoing hip joint arthroplasty.
Methods： A total of 295 patients with hip fractures were analyzed using the modified POSSUM surgical scoring system. The mean ages of the patients were 66.59 years in the complicative group, 62.28 years in noncomplicative group, 77.89 years in the death group and 63.25 years in the living group, respectively. The comparisons between the observed and predicted morbidity, between the observed and predicted mortality were made within 30 days after operation. Results： The average physiological scores and operative severity scores was 18.96 ± 4.83 and 13.47 ± 2.01 in complicative group, while 15.65 ± 3.66 and 11.74 ± 2.26 innoncomplicative group （P〈0.05）. The average physiological scores and operative severity scores was 25.56 ± 3.78 and 14.22 ± 0.67 in death group, while 16.46 ± 4.09 and 12.25 ± 2.33 in living group （P〈0.05）. Though POSSUM scoring system over-predicted the overall risk of death, its estimate was very close in the high risk groups （〉10%）. There was perfect consistence between the observed and the predicted morbidity as calculated by published predictor equation for morbidity, and consistence for mortality in the high risk band.
Conclusions： Modified POSSUM scoring system may be used to predict the morbidity in patients with hip fracture. Furthermore, POSSUM scoring system overpredicts the overall risk of death, but its estimate is close to the actual data in the high risk band （〉10%）.     

POSSUM scoring for laparoscopic cholecystectomy in the elderly

BACKGROUND: Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) scoring is a validated scoring system in the audit of surgical outcomes; however, evaluation of this system has mostly been applied to open surgical techniques. The present study examines the validity of POSSUM in predicting morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) with the recognized risk factor for postoperative mortality of advanced age. METHODS: All patients aged 80 years or over undergoing LC in one surgical unit between January 1993 and December 1999 were identified from the surgical operations database of the hospital. Case-note review was used to collate data in terms of clinical and operative factors as described in POSSUM. Observed/POSSUM estimated (O/E) ratio of morbidity and 30-day mortality were calculated. RESULTS: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed in 76 patients aged 80 years or over during the study period. Of these patients, case notes for 70 patients (92%) were available for review. Median (range) age was 83 years (80-93 years) and median (range) American Society of Anesthesiologists score was 2 (2-4). Twenty-six (34%) of 70 patients underwent cholecystectomy during an acute admission. The mean physiology severity score was 23 and operative severity score, 8. A significant postoperative morbidity was observed in 15 (22%) of 70 patients. There was no 30-day mortality. Using exponential analysis, POSSUM predicted morbidity in 15 patients and mortality in seven patients. Thus, O/E ratios for morbidity and mortality were 1 and 0, respectively. CONCLUSION: POSSUM scoring performs well in predicting morbidity, but overpredicts mortality, after LC in patients aged over 80 years. An assessment of its application to other laparoscopic procedures merits evaluation.     

应用APACHEⅡ和POSSUM评分指导胰腺癌患者外科治疗的临床分析

目的 探讨POSSUM和APACHEⅡ评分系统对胰腺癌患者外科治疗影响的临床价值。方法 应用POSSUM和APACHEⅡ评分系统对84例胰腺癌患者围手术期进行回顾分析。结果 本组患者中,青年组（n=36)的病死率和并发症分别为5.5%和19.4%,老年组（n=48)病死率和并发症分别为6.2%和20.8%略低于APACHEⅡ和POSSUM评分预测的老年组病死率（12.5%)和并发症（25.5%),中青年组病死率（11.1%)和并发症（25%）。结论 PSSSUM和APACHEⅡ能反映胰腺癌患者的病情,并且可影响选择最适宜的手术方式,POSSUM评分系统更适宜于指导胰腺癌手术的围手术期处理。     

POSSUM: a re-evaluation in patients undergoing surgery for rectal cancer. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity

Background: The problem of directly comparing morbidity and mortality rates between institutions without some sort of adjustment for case mix is well documented. Scoring systems have been developed to allow comparisons to be made. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is one such system. It was designed to predict operative mortality and morbidity in differing settings and to be independent of case mix. The present study examines the use of POSSUM in colorectal practice in Saudi Arabia. Methods: Patients referred to King Faisal Specialist Hospital between 1990 and 1998 for primary management of an histologically proven rectal cancer were identified. POSSUM mortality and morbidity scores and Portsmouth‐Physiological and Operative Severity Score (P‐POSSUM) mortality scores were calculated separately for each patient, and predicted rates were compared with observed rates in the patients studied. Results: There were 70 men (mean age: 55.6 years; range: 25?87) and 75 women (mean age: 52.8 years; range: 26?84). One hundred and six patients underwent ‘curative’ surgery. Abdominoperineal resection was the most frequently performed procedure. Major anastomotic leakage following anterior resection occurred in two of fifty patients. One patient developed a pulmonary embolism but no patient developed postoperative myocardial infarction. Two patients died. The median and mean physiological and operative severity scores were 13 (range: 12?37) and 17 (range: 8?37) and 14.68 and 18.36, respectively. The overall POSSUM‐predicted (using median scores) morbidity and mortality rates were 35.4% and 6.7%. The P‐POSSUM‐predicted (using mean scores) mortality rate was 3.5%. Observed morbidity and mortality rates were 54.5% and 1.4%. Conclusion: POSSUM failed to predict outcomes accurately in patients undergoing surgery for rectal cancer in Saudi Arabia. P‐POSSUM also overpredicted mortality but to a lesser extent. Patient's ‘wellness’ and the previously identified inability of POSSUM to accurately predict death in low‐risk populations may explain these findings. Care must be exercised in using the POSSUM formulae for risk adjustment in different settings.     

Outcome of elective primary surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon: a risk analysis based on the POSSUM scoring system

BACKGROUND: The outcome of surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon remains largely unclear. A comparison of studies is hardly possible because risk factors for diverticular disease severity and patient-related risk factors are lacking. The purpose of this study was to define morbidity and mortality of primary surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon and to identify the risk factors that predict a higher morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Patients who underwent elective surgery for complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon (n = 149) were identified in a prospective computerized morbidity and mortality registration. In all patients, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) was calculated, as were the morbidity and mortality rates. Factors predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality were identified. To audit mortality figures, a POSSUM based scoring system is introduced. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 4.7% and morbidity rate was 53.7%. Significantly higher morbidity rates were correlated with a higher physiological POSSUM score (P = 0.010). Non-survivors were older (P = 0.029) and also had a higher physiological POSSUM score (P < 0.001) and operation severity POSSUM score (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The morbidity and mortality rates of surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon are considerable. To a large extent, mortality and morbidity are driven by patient- and disease-related factors, as expressed by elevated physiological severity and operative severity scores and failures of peri-operative management in most deceased patients.     

Validation of POSSUM scoring systems for audit of major hepatectomy

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to validate the use of Physiological and Operative Severity Score in the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth (P) POSSUM scoring systems to predict postoperative mortality in a group of Chinese patients who had a major hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prospectively over a 6-year interval from January 1997 to December 2002. The mortality risks were calculated using both the POSSUM and the P-POSSUM equations. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-nine patients underwent major hepatectomy; there were 17 (6.6 per cent) postoperative deaths. Of 32 preoperative and intraoperative variables studied, age, smoking habit, serum creatinine concentration, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, and physiological and operative severity scores were found to be significant factors predicting mortality. On multivariate analysis only the physiological and operative severity scores were independent variables. The POSSUM system overpredicted mortality risk (14.2 per cent) and there was a significant lack of fit in these patients (chi(2) = 14.1, 3 d.f., P = 0.003). The mortality rate predicted by P-POSSUM was 4.2 per cent and showed no significant lack of fit (chi(2) = 7.6, 3 d.f., P = 0.055), indicating that it predicted outcome effectively. A new logistic equation was derived from the present patient data set that requires testing prospectively. CONCLUSION: P-POSSUM significantly predicted outcome in Chinese patients who had major hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma. A modified disease-specific equation requires further testing.