Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score predicts mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients

Purpose

Cirrhosis is a common condition that complicates the management of patients who require critical care. There is interest in identifying scoring systems that may be used to predict outcome because of the poor odds for recovery despite high-intensity care. We sought to evaluate how Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), an organ-specific scoring system, compares with other severity of illness scoring systems in predicting short- and long-term mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients.

Materials and methods

This was a retrospective cohort study involving seven intensive care units (ICUs) in a tertiary care, academic medical center. Adult patients with cirrhosis who were admitted to an ICU between 2001 and 2008 were evaluated. Severity of illness scores (MELD and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA]) were calculated on admission and at 24 and 48 hours. The primary end points were 28-day and 1-year all-cause mortality.

Results

Of 19 742 ICU hospitalizations, 848 had cirrhosis. Relevant data were available for 521 patients (73%). Of these cases, 353 patients (69.5%) were admitted to medical ICU (MICU), and the other 155 (30.5%), to surgical unit. Alcohol abuse and hepatitis C were the most common reasons for cirrhosis. Patients who died within 28 days were more likely to receive mechanical ventilation, pressors, and renal replacement therapy. Among 353 medical admissions, both MELD and SOFA were found to be significantly associated with both 28-day and 1-year mortality. Among the 155 surgical admissions, both scores were found to be not significant for 28-day mortality but were significant for 1 year.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that the prognostic ability of a variety of scoring systems strongly depends on the patient population. In the MICU population, each model (MELD + SOFA, MELD, and SOFA) demonstrates excellent discrimination for 28-day and 1-year mortality. However, these scoring systems did not predict 28-day mortality in the surgical ICU group but were significant for 1-year mortality. This suggests that patients admitted to a surgical ICU will behave similarly to their MICU cohort if they survive the perioperative period.     

Urinary creatinine excretion is related to short-term and long-term mortality in critically ill patients

Purpose

Patients with reduced muscle mass have a worse outcome, but muscle mass is difficult to quantify in the ICU. Urinary creatinine excretion (UCE) reflects muscle mass, but has not been studied in critically ill patients. We evaluated the relation of baseline UCE with short-term and long-term mortality in patients admitted to our ICU.

Methods

Patients who stayed ≥?24 h in the ICU with UCE measured within 3 days of admission were included. We excluded patients who developed acute kidney injury stage 3 during the first week of ICU stay. As muscle mass is considerably higher in men than women, we used sex-stratified UCE quintiles. We assessed the relation of UCE with both in-hospital mortality and long-term mortality.

Results

From 37,283 patients, 6151 patients with 11,198 UCE measurements were included. Mean UCE was 54% higher in males compared to females. In-hospital mortality was 17%, while at 5-year follow-up, 1299 (25%) patients had died. After adjustment for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, body mass index, reason for admission and disease severity, patients in the lowest UCE quintile had an increased in-hospital mortality compared to the patients in the highest UCE quintile (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.96–3.34). For long-term mortality, the highest risk was also observed for patients in the lowest UCE quintile (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.89–2.85), independent of confounders.

Conclusions

In ICU patients without severe renal dysfunction, low urinary creatinine excretion is associated with short-term and long-term mortality, independent of age, sex, renal function and disease characteristics, underscoring the role of muscle mass as risk factor for mortality and UCE as relevant biomarker.

     

Elevated serum creatinine at baseline predicts poor outcome in patients receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy

Background: Renal insufficiency is recognized as a predictor of mortality and poor outcome in heart failure patients. We sought to study the impact of baseline serum creatinine on subsequent outcome in cardiac resynchronization therapy ( CRT) recipients.
Methods: We retrospectively reviewed hospital records of all CRT recipients at Pittsburgh Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System (2003–2005) and University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (2004) . We recorded clinical characteristics at the time of implantation including demographics, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, ejection fraction, QRS duration, cardiomyopathy etiology, medical history, medication use, and serum creatinine. Mortality alone and mortality combined with heart failure hospitalization were the study endpoints.
Results: Out of the 330 patients studied, a total of 66 (20.0%) patients died over a mean follow-up duration of 19.7 ± 9.0 months (range 1–44). The cohort was studied by three creatinine tertiles (0.6–1.0, 1.1–1.3, 1.4–3.0 mg/dL). Both study endpoints were observed more frequently in patients in the highest creatinine tertile compared to others (28.7% vs 14.0%, P = 0.008 for death and 41.6% vs 21.5%, P = 0.001 for the combined endpoint). High creatinine remained an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–3.39, P = 0.032) and the combined endpoint (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.20–3.13, P = 0.007) in multivariate adjusted models. Studied as a continuous variable, increase in creatinine level by 0.1 mg/dL was associated with an 11% increase in mortality risk and a 7% increase in the combined endpoint.
Conclusion: In an unselected cohort of CRT recipients, the baseline creatinine was found to predict worse survival and poor outcome over a modest follow-up duration.     

Hyperglycaemia and mortality in critically ill patients

Objective To describe hyperglycaemia as a possible marker of morbidity and mortality in critically ill medical and surgical patients admitted to a multidisciplinary ICU.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting A 13-bed non-cardiac multidisciplinary ICU in a university hospital.Patients and participants Adult patients consecutively admitted to the ICU in a 6-month period. Patients with fewer than 2 days stay in the ICU and patients with known diabetes were excluded.Measurements and results At admission a registration form was filled in including demographic data, first and second day APACHE II scores, infections and daily maximum blood glucose level. In surgical patients, high maximum blood glucose level during the stay in ICU was correlated with increased mortality, morbidity and frequency of infection. In medical patients, we found a non-significant trend towards a correlation between hyperglycaemia and morbidity and mortality, respectively.Conclusions High blood glucose level during the stay in ICU was a marker of increased morbidity and mortality in critically ill surgical patients. In medical patients the same trend was found, but non-significant. The population of patients in the present study are heterogeneous and the results from surgical critically ill patients should not be generalised to medical patients.     

Small increases in serum creatinine are associated with prolonged ICU stay and increased hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cancer

Purpose

Declining kidney function has been associated with adverse hospital outcome in cancer patients. ICU literature suggests that small changes in serum creatinine are associated with poor outcome. We hypothesized that reductions in renal function previously considered trivial would predict a poor outcome in critically ill patients with malignant disease. We evaluated the effects on hospital mortality and ICU length of stay of small changes in creatinine following admission to the intensive care unit.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study utilizing clinical, laboratory and pharmacy data collected from 3,795 patients admitted to the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center's Intensive Care Unit. We conducted univariate and multivariate regression analysis to determine those factors associated with adverse ICU and hospital outcome.

Results

Increases in creatinine as small as 10% (0.2?mg/dl) were associated with prolonged ICU stay (5?days vs 6.6?days, p?<?0.001) and increased mortality (14.6% vs 25.5%, p?<?0.0001). Patients with a 25% rise in creatinine during the first 72?h of ICU admission were twice as likely to die in the hospital (14.3% vs 30.1%, p?<?0.001). RIFLE criteria were accurate predictors of outcome, though they missed much of the risk of even smaller increases in creatinine.

Conclusions

Even small rises in serum creatinine following admission to the ICU are associated with increased morbidity and mortality in oncologic patients. The poor outcome in those with rising creatinine could not be explained by severity of illness or other risk factors. These small changes in creatinine may not be trivial, and should be regarded as evidence of a decline in an individual patient's condition.     

Plasma DNA concentration as a predictor of mortality and sepsis in critically ill patients

Introduction  

Risk stratification of severely ill patients remains problematic, resulting in increased interest in potential circulating markers, such as cytokines, procalcitonin and brain natriuretic peptide. Recent reports have indicated the usefulness of plasma DNA as a prognostic marker in various disease states such as trauma, myocardial infarction and stroke. The present study assesses the significance of raised levels of plasma DNA on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) in terms of its ability to predict disease severity or prognosis.     

Gastric mucosal pH as a prognostic index of mortality in critically ill patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if measurements of gastric intramucosal pH have prognostic implications regarding ICU mortality. DESIGN: Prospective comparison of outcome. SETTING: General adult ICUs in two teaching hospitals. PATIENTS: Eighty consecutive patients age 18 to 84 yrs (mean 63.4), 50 men and 30 women, 55% in the medical and 45% in the surgical services. METHODS: Gastric intramucosal pH was measured on ICU admission and again 12 hrs later. A value of greater than or equal to 7.35 was used to differentiate between normal and low gastric intramucosal pH. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Fifty-four patients had a normal gastric intramucosal pH and 26 patients had a low gastric intramucosal pH on ICU admission. The mortality rate was greater in the low gastric intramucosal pH group (65.4% vs. 43.6%; p less than .04). The frequency of sepsis and the presence of multisystem organ failure also were greater in the low gastric intramucosal pH group (p less than .01). Further stratification of patients according to gastric intramucosal pH measured 12 hrs after admission showed a greater mortality rate in patients with persistently low gastric intramucosal pH when compared with patients with normal gastric intramucosal pH during the first 12 hrs (86.7% vs. 26.8%; p less than .001). CONCLUSIONS: Measurements of gastric intramucosal pH on ICU admission, and again 12 hrs later, have a high specificity for predicting patient survival in this ICU patient population (77.8% to 80.6%). Furthermore, given its relative noninvasive nature, tonometrically measured gastric intramucosal pH may be a useful addition to patient monitoring in the ICU.     

D-dimer assay predicts mortality in critically ill patients without disseminated intravascular coagulation or venous thromboembolic disease

Objective: To determine if D-dimer predicts outcomes in critically ill patients. Design: Observational, cohort study. Setting: Medical intensive care unit (MICU) of a tertiary care hospital. Patients and participants: Seventy-four patients consecutively admitted to the MICU. Interventions: D-dimer was measured by latex agglutination within 12 h of admission to the MICU. Measurements and results: Of the study population, 43.2 % had positive D-dimers. The in-hospital mortality rate in D-dimer positive patients was 28.1 % as compared to 7.1 % in D-dimer negative subjects (p = 0.024). D-dimer positive patients had significantly greater frequencies of venous thromboses (21.9 % vs 4.8 %, p = 0.035). Conclusions: The D-dimer assay identifies patients at increased risk for mortality and may be a more sensitive test to determine the presence of underlying microvascular pathology in critically ill patients. A positive D-dimer at admission to the MICU is associated with an increased risk for the later development of a venous thromboembolic event (VTE). Received: 25 May 1998 Final revision received: 7 October 1998 Accepted: 9 December 1998     

Association of hemoglobin concentration and mortality in critically ill patients with severe traumatic brain injury

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: The critical care management of traumatic brain injury focuses on preventing secondary ischemic injury. Cerebral oxygen delivery is dependent upon the cerebral perfusion pressure and the oxygen content of blood, which is principally determined by hemoglobin. Despite its importance to the cerebral oxygen delivery, the precise hemoglobin concentration to provide adequate oxygen delivery to injured neuronal tissue in TBI patients is controversial with limited evidence to provide transfusion thresholds. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of severe TBI patients, investigating the association between mean 7-day hemoglobin concentration and hospital mortality. Demographic, physiologic, intensive care interventions, clinical outcomes and daily hemoglobin concentrations were recorded for all patients. Patients were all cared for at a tertiary, level 1 trauma center in a mixed medical and surgical intensive unit. Patients were divided into quartiles based on their mean 7-day hemoglobin concentration: < 90 g/L, 90 - 99 g/L, 100 - 109 g/L and > 110 g/L. Multivariable log-binomial regression was used to model the association between mean daily hemoglobin concentration and hospital mortality. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-three patients with traumatic brain injury were identified and 169 were included in the analysis based on inclusion/exclusion criteria. Of these, 77% of the patients were male, with a mean age of 38 (SD 17) years and a median best GCS of 6 (IQR 5 - 7). One hundred fifteen patients (68%) received a red blood cell (RBC) transfusion. In RBCs administered in the ICU, the median pre-transfusion hemoglobin was 79 g/L (IQR 73 - 85). Thirty-seven patients (22%) died in hospital. Multivariable analysis revealed that mean 7-day hemoglobin concentration < 90 g/L was independently associated with an increased risk of hospital mortality (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.5 - 6.3, p = 0.03). Other variables associated with increased mortality on multivariable regression were insertion of external ventricular drain, age and decreased GCS. Red blood cell transfusion was not associated with mortality following multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: A mean 7-day hemoglobin concentration of < 90g/L is associated with increased hospital mortality in patients with severe traumatic brain injury.     

Increase in chloride from baseline is independently associated with mortality in critically ill children

Purpose

To determine if there is an association between mortality and admission chloride levels and/or increases in the chloride level in critically ill children.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) from January 2014 to December 2015. Patients were excluded for the following reasons: (1) age <?90 days or >?18 years, (2) admission to the cardiac intensive care unit, (3) no laboratory values upon admission to the PICU, (4) history of end-stage renal disease, (5) a disorder of chloride transport, and (6) admission for diabetic ketoacidosis. The patients were stratified on the basis of admission chloride levels (hypochloraemia, <?96 mEq/L; normochloraemia, 96–109 mEq/L; and hyperchloraemia,?≥?110 mEq/L) and dichotomised on the basis of an increase in chloride in the first day (<?5 mEq/L, ≥?5 mEq/L). Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 1935 patients [55% female, median age 6.3 years IQR (1.9–13.4)] were included. The overall mortality was 4% (n?=?71) and day 2 AKI occurred in 17% (n?=?333. Hypochloraemia, hyperchloraemia, and an increase in serum chloride?≥?5 mEq/L occurred in 2%, 21%, and 12%, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, increase in chloride?≥?5 mEq/L was associated with a 2.3 (95% CI 1.03–5.21) greater odds of mortality.

Conclusions

An increase in serum chloride level in the first day of admission is common and an independent risk factor for mortality in critically ill children. Further studies are warranted to identify how chloride disturbances contribute to mortality risk in critically ill children.

     

Total-to-ionized calcium ratio predicts mortality in continuous renal replacement therapy with citrate anticoagulation in critically ill patients

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Regional citrate anticoagulation is safe, feasible and increasingly used in critically ill patients on continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). However, in patients with hepatic or multi-organ dysfunction, citrate accumulation may lead to an imbalance of calcium homeostasis. The study aimed at evaluating the incidence and prognostic relevance of an increased total to ionized calcium ratio (T/I Ca2+ ratio) and its association to hepatic dysfunction. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational study on n = 208 critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) and necessity for CRRT with regional citrate anticoagulation (CRRT-citrate) between September 2009 and September 2011. Critical illness was estimated by Simplified Acute Physiology Score II; hepatic function was measured with indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate. After achieving a steady state of calcium homeostasis patients were classified into tertiles according to the T/I Ca2+ ratio (<2.0 versus 2.0 - 2.39 versus ≥2.4). RESULTS: The T/I Ca2+ ratio was determined as an independent predictor for 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with AKI on CRRT-citrate confirmed by receiver operating characteristics and multivariate analysis (Area under the curve 0.94 ± 0.02; p<0.001). A T/I Ca2+ ratio ≥2.4 independently predicted a 33.5-fold (p<0.001) increase in 28-day mortality-rate. There was a significant correlation between the T/I Ca2+ ratio and the hepatic clearance (p<0.001) and the severity of critical illness (p<0.001). The efficacy and safety of citrate anticoagulation, determined by blood urea nitrogen, mean filter patency and bleeding episodes, were not significantly different between the tertiles. CONCLUSIONS: In patients on CRRT-citrate T/I Ca2+ ratio is closely related to the clinical outcome and emerged as an independent predictor of 28-day mortality. Larger studies are required to define the cut-off and predictive value for the T/I Ca2+ ratio. This ratio is associated with hepatic and/or multi-organ dysfunction and therefore an important therapeutic target.     

Intensive insulin therapy and mortality in critically ill patients

Introduction  

Intensive insulin therapy (IIT) with tight glycemic control may reduce mortality and morbidity in critically ill patients and has been widely adopted in practice throughout the world. However, there is only one randomized controlled trial showing unequivocal benefit to this approach and that study population was dominated by post-cardiac surgery patients. We aimed to determine the association between IIT and mortality in a mixed population of critically ill patients.