Issues regarding health plan payments under Medicare and recommendations for reform.

The failures of the market for current Medicare health plans include poor information and price distortions and can be attributed to government policy. Reforms that could improve its structure are annual open enrollment periods, premium rebates from health management organizations (HMOs) to members, and termination of the federal government's subsidy of Medicare supplementary insurance. However, the price for a basic Medicare benefits package would still be distorted because Medicare bases its contribution on the cost of a comparable package in the fee-for-service (FFS) sector rather than on the cost of the most efficient plan available to beneficiaries in each market area. The present Medicare HMO program almost certainly increases total Medicare costs and actually discourages HMO growth by shielding beneficiaries from the true price difference between basic benefits in the HMO and FFS sectors. Lacking payment reforms, the Medicare HMO program should be terminated.     

A randomized trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a Medicaid HMO

The value of health-care services used by AFDC Medicaid patients receiving care in a voluntary enrollment HMO is contrasted with that of health care services used by Medicaid patients receiving fee-for-service (FFS) care. The randomized assignment of Medicaid recipients to the HMO or to FFS allows the authors to conclude that the apparent lower use of HMO enrollees results from the HMO's selection of patients with lower needs for care rather than from technical efficiency. Patients had lower use while in the HMO, but disenrollees and those who refused enrollment had significantly higher use than FFS participants. In contrast to the effect of HMOs on non-Medicaid populations, the Medicaid HMO studied provided significantly fewer outpatient services, but the same level of inpatient services as the FFS sector. Overall, voluntary enrollment of Medicaid eligibles into the HMO resulted in higher state expenditures for Medicaid because of favorable selection.     

Enrollee health status under Medicare risk contracts: an analysis of mortality rates.

Previous studies comparing the health status of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled under HMO risk contracts to that of Medicare beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS) have generally focused on demonstration projects conducted before 1985. This study examines mortality rates in 1987 for approximately 1 million aged Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in 108 HMOs. We estimated adjusted mortality ratios (AMR) for each HMO and across all HMOs, by dividing the actual number of deaths among HMO enrollees by the "expected" number of deaths. The expected number of deaths was based on death rates among local FFS populations, adjusting for age, sex, Medicaid buy-in status, and institutional status. The AMR for all HMO enrollees pooled together was 0.80. For persons newly enrolled in 1987, the AMR was 0.69; in general, AMRs were higher for beneficiaries who had been enrolled for longer periods of time. Among individual HMOs, none exhibited an AMR substantially above 1.00. Regression analysis indicated lower AMRs for staff model HMOs than for either IPA or group models. Low mortality among Medicare HMO enrollees is consistent with favorable selection or with improvements in the health status of enrollees due to better access or quality of care in HMOs. In either case, health status differences between HMO enrollees and FFS beneficiaries have implications for the appropriateness of Medicare's Adjusted Average Per Capita Cost (AAPCC) payment formula for HMOs.     

The effect of HMOs on the inpatient utilization of medicare beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of joining HMOs (health maintenance organizations) on the inpatient utilization of Medicare beneficiaries. DATA SOURCES: We linked enrollment data on Medicare beneficiaries to patient discharge data from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) for 1991-1995. DESIGN AND SAMPLE: A quasi-experimental design comparing inpatient utilization before and after switching from fee-for-service (FFS) to Medicare HMOs; with comparison groups of continuous FFS and HMO beneficiaries to adjust for aging and secular trends. The sample consisted of 124,111 Medicare beneficiaries who switched from FFS to HMOs in 1992 and 1993, and random samples of 108,966 continuous FFS beneficiaries and 18,276 continuous HMO enrollees yielding 1,227,105 person-year observations over five years. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURE: Total inpatient days per thousand per year. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: When beneficiaries joined a group/staff HMO, their total days per year were 18 percent lower (95 percent confidence interval, 15-22 percent) than if the beneficiaries had remained in FFS. Total days per year were reduced less for beneficiaries joining an IPA (independent practice association) HMO (11 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 4-19 percent). Medicare group/staff and IPA-model HMO enrollees had roughly 60 percent of the inpatient days per thousand beneficiaries in 1995 as did FFS beneficiaries (976 and 928 versus 1,679 days per thousand, respectively). In the group/staff model HMOs, our analysis suggests that managed care practices accounted for 214 days of this difference, and the remaining 489 days (70 percent) were due to favorable selection. In IPA HMOs, managed care practices appear to account for only 115 days, with 636 days (85 percent) due to selection. CONCLUSIONS: Through the mid-nineties, Medicare HMOs in California were able to reduce inpatient utilization beyond that attributable to the high level of favorable selection, but the reduction varied by type of HMO.     

How the elderly fare in HMOs: outcomes from the Medicare competition demonstrations.

Because of concern about the effects of prepaid care on outcomes for elderly enrollees in health maintenance organizations (HMOs), a prospective study of access to care and functional outcomes was performed. HMOs with Medicare risk contracts in January 1985 (N = 17) were selected from ten communities and were matched for comparison with ten similar communities where no Medicare HMOs were in operation. Random samples of HMO enrollees (N = 2,098) and fee-for-service (FFS) nonenrollees (N = 1,059) were assessed at baseline and at follow-up one year later (HMO = 1,873, FFS = 916) to observe access to care and functional outcomes. At baseline, nonenrollees had more bed days and poorer functional status than HMO enrollees. While fewer HMO enrollees experienced declines in functional status between baseline and follow-up (e.g., patient's ability to function declined in one or more activities of daily living: HMOs at 5.3 percent versus FFS at 8.5 percent, p < .01), after controlling for other factors with logistic regression, enrollment status was not significantly associated with functional decline. Self-rated health, history of hospitalization, age of 80 or older and baseline functional status were predictive of decline in function. After controlling for baseline differences, HMO disenrollees also experienced similar functional declines at follow-up compared to continuously enrolled beneficiaries. These findings suggest that Medicare beneficiaries who belong to HMOs experience comparable rates of functional decline to those experienced by beneficiaries in the FFS sector with similar initial levels of function and health status. Together with results showing no significant difference in medical visits according to various symptoms, we conclude that access and quality of care delivered by HMOs is comparable to that provided in FFS settings.     

Comparing mortality and time until death for medicare HMO and FFS beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE: To compare adjusted mortality rates of TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees and disenrollees with rates of beneficiaries enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service sector (FFS), and to compare the time until death for decedents in these three groups. DATA SOURCE: Data are from the 124 counties with the largest TEFRA-risk HMO enrollment using 1993-1994 Medicare Denominator files for beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS and TEFRA-risk HMO sectors. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective study that tracks the mortality rates and time until death of a random sample of 1,240,120 Medicare beneficiaries in the FFS sector and 1,526,502 enrollees in HMOs between April 1, 1993 and April 1, 1994. A total of 58,201 beneficiaries switched from an HMO to the FFS sector and were analyzed separately. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: HMO enrollees have lower relative odds of mortality than a comparable group of FFS beneficiaries. Conversely, HMO disenrollees have higher relative odds of mortality than comparable FFS beneficiaries. Among decedents in the three groups, HMO enrollees lived longer than FFS beneficiaries, who in turn lived longer than HMO disenrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees appear to be, on average, healthier than beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS sector, who appear to be in turn healthier than HMO disenrollees. These health status differences persist, even after controlling for beneficiary demographics and county-level variables that might confound the relationship between mortality and the insurance sector.     

Use of preventive care services,beneficiary characteristics,and Medicare HMO performance

Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees use more preventive care services than their fee-for-service (FFS) counterparts. This may be because those who enroll in HMOs have characteristics that make them more disposed to use preventive care. To investigate this possibility, we examined the use of four preventive care services by respondents to the 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). Unadjusted preventive care use rates for HMO enrollees were slightly higher than rates for non-HMO enrollees with private supplemental insurance. However, after adjusting for enrollee characteristics (sociodemographics, health behaviors, health status, and functioning) we found that preventive care use rates for HMO enrollees were substantially higher--consistent with HMO enrollees being less disposed to use preventive care. In comparing preventive care service rates across groups, managers and policymakers may want to consider taking into account beneficiary characteristics that are correlated with the disposition to use preventive care.     

Consumer information and biased selection in the demand for coverage supplementing Medicare.

This study examines how the relationship between health insurance knowledge and the health status of health insurance consumers influences their decisions to purchase insurance coverage. Data from the federal Medicare health insurance program for the elderly in the United States are used. The basic Medicare program provides a limited amount of coverage for health care services obtained from any provider in the private fee-for-service (FFS) market. Beneficiaries of this program may choose to supplement the basic coverage which they receive by two mechanisms: either they may purchase private insurance designed to fill some of the gaps left by the federal program ('Medigap' policies), thereby remaining in the FFS market and preserving their choice of provider, or they may enroll in health maintenance organizations (HMOs), thereby leaving the FFS market and agreeing to use only those providers affiliated with the HMO, and in return receiving broader coverage at little additional out-of-pocket cost. The study was made possible by a unique data set which combines measures of beneficiary knowledge of Medicare coverage with measures of perceived health status, socio-economic characteristics, and insurance coverage choices for a sample of Medicare beneficiaries who participated in an educational workshop about their insurance coverage options. These data were used to estimate a multinomial logistic model of the determinants of insurance choices, where the options included the two listed above and a basic Medicare option. The study explicitly recognizes the interaction between insurance information and health status in health plan choice. These results show that knowledge of coverage does have a differential impact on the decision to purchase health insurance depending on health status. With a high level of knowledge, sicker beneficiaries are less likely to have basic Medicare alone, compared with HMOs or Medigap policies, while healthier beneficiaries are less likely to be enrolled in HMOs, compared with Medigap policies. This finding has important implications for the use of health status measures to adjust capitated payment formulas when knowledgable consumers have the option to enroll in HMOs or remain in the FFS environment. In the absence of health status adjusters for the HMO capitation payments, high levels of coverage knowledge may exacerbate inherent selection bias among these coverage options by healthier and sicker consumers of health insurance.     

Including hospice in Medicare capitation payments: would it save money?

Hospice services received by Medicare risk-based health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees are paid on a non-capitated basis, creating financial incentives for HMOs to encourage their terminally ill patients to elect hospice. Using Medicare administrative records for 1998, we found that hospice enrollment in the last month of life was significantly higher among HMO enrollees than among beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS). However, low mortality rates among HMO enrollees produced similar population-based rates of hospice use in the HMO and FFS sectors. Simulations showed that including hospice care under capitation payments in July 1998 would have produced very small savings for Medicare.     

Health status of Medicare enrollees in HMOs and fee-for-service in 1994

We compared the health status of 863 health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees with that of 4,576 non-enrollees, controlling for demographics and area of residence, using 1994 data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). HMO respondents were less likely to report fair or poor health, functional impairment, or heart disease. Average predicted costs based on various health-status measures were substantially lower for HMO respondents than for respondents in fee-for-service (FFS) arrangements. The Medicare payment formula for HMOs does not adequately adjust for the better health and consequent lower expected costs of HMO enrollees. The addition of health-status measures would improvement payment accuracy and reduce average HMO payments significantly below current levels.     

HMO vs fee-for-service care of older persons with acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES. Health maintenance organizations (HMOs) continue to grow in number and in their enrollment of Medicare recipients. They are also increasingly viewed as organizational structures that might contribute to control of health care costs. Yet little is known about the quality of care that elderly HMO enrollees receive. METHODS. We compared patients from three HMOs to a fee-for-service (FFS) sample that was national in scope. Sickness at admission, the quality of process of care, and mortality were assessed for patients aged 65 years and older who had been hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. RESULTS. After adjustment for sickness at admission, there were no significant mortality differences between the HMO and FFS groups at either 30 (23.2% vs 23.5%) or 180 days (34.4% vs 34.5%) after admission. Compliance with process criteria was higher for the HMO group as a whole (P < .05). The HMOs had greater compliance with three of five scales measuring different aspects of care for patients with acute myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS. We conclude that older patients from our participating HMOs who were hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction received hospital care that was generally better in terms of process than that received by patients in a national FFS sample.     

Selection experiences in Medicare HMOs: pre-enrollment expenditures

Using 1993 and 1994 data, the authors examine whether beneficiaries who enroll in a Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO), including those enrolling for only a short period of time, have lower expenditures than continuous fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries the year prior to enrollment. We also test whether biased selection varies by the level of HMO market penetration and the rate of market-share growth. We find favorable selection associated with enrollment into Medicare HMOs, which declines as market share increases but does not disappear. Among short-term enrollees, we find unfavorable selection, however, selection bias was not sensitive to market characteristics.     

Consumer acceptance of prepaid and fee-for-service medical care: results from a randomized controlled trial.

Do consumers find the care provided by health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and that provided in the fee-for-service (FFS) system equally acceptable? To address this question, we randomly assigned 1,537 people ages 17 to 61 either to FFS insurance plans that allowed choice of physicians or to a well-established HMO. We also studied 486 people who had already selected the HMO (control group). Those who had chosen the HMO were as satisfied overall with medical care providers and services as their FFS counterparts. The typical person assigned to the HMO, however, was significantly less satisfied overall relative to FFS participants. Attitudes toward specific features of care favored both FFS and HMO, depending on the feature rated. Four differences (length of appointment waits, parking arrangements, availability of hospitals, and continuity of care) favored FFS; two (length of office waits, costs of care) favored the HMO. HMO versus FFS differences in ratings of access to care and availability of resources mirror differences in the organizational features of these two systems that are generally considered responsible for the significantly lower medical expenditures at HMOs. Regardless of their origin, less favorable attitudes toward interpersonal and technical quality of care in the HMO have marked consequences: dissatisfaction and disenrollment.     

The effect of HMOs on premiums in employment-based health plans.

This study documents the effect of HMOs on premiums in employment-based health plans. We analyzed a survey of Minnesota employers conducted in 1986. Among 922 usable observations, 239 firms offered HMOs in addition to fee-for-service (FFS) health plans. We estimated an equation for the probability of offering an HMO, followed by equations for HMO enrollment share, and HMO and FFS premiums. The weighted average HMO and FFS premium in firms that offer HMOs was compared to the premium of FFS-only firms. We found that offering an HMO raises the average premium for family coverage health insurance by $25.14 per month and for single coverage by $3.68 per month. This effect was smaller for firms in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. HMOs may be viewed as a progressive and innovative health care benefit, but they are likely to increase firms' health insurance premiums.     

The quality of ambulatory care in Medicare health maintenance organizations.

The quality of ambulatory care received by Medicare recipients who enrolled in health maintenance organizations (HMOs) was compared to the care received by fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare recipients, in a quasi-experimental, non-randomized design. Both samples were drawn from the four major geographic areas in the country, and included two types of HMO practices: staff/group models, and independent practice associations (IPAs). A panel of expert physicians developed criteria for evaluating ambulatory care, and medical record abstractions using these criteria were performed on 1,590 outpatient records: 777 FFS and 813 HMO (441 staff/group, 372 IPA). While individual items of medical histories and physical examinations were performed most often for staff/group HMO patients and least often in FFS patients, odds ratios (OR) for performance in staff/group HMO patients were particularly large for health maintenance items: tonometry (OR = 8.4), mammography (OR = 2.7), pelvic examination (OR = 5.3), rectal examination (OR = 2.9), fecal occult blood test (OR = 3.3). The results suggest that recommended elements of routine and preventive care are more likely to be performed for Medicare enrollees in staff/group HMOs than in FFS settings.     

An Analysis of Unobserved Selection in an Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Group Model

The study assesses unobserved selection bias in an inpatient diagnostic cost group (DCG) model similar to Medicare's Principal Inpatient Diagnostic Cost Group (PIP-DCG) risk adjustment model using a unique data set that contains hospital discharge records for both FFS and HMO Medicare beneficiaries in California from 1994 to 1996. We use a simultaneous equations model that jointly estimates HMO enrollment and subsequent hospital use to test the existence of unobserved selection and estimate the true HMO effect. It is found that the inpatient DCG model does not adequately adjust for biased selection into Medicare HMOs. New HMO enrollees are healthier than FFS beneficiaries even after adjustment for the included PIP-DCG risk factors. A model developed over an FFS sample ignoring unobserved selection overestimates hospital use of new HMO enrollees by 28 percent compared to their use if they had remained in FFS. Models that better captures selection bias are needed to reduce overestimation of Medicare HMO enrollees' resource use.     

Social Health Maintenance Organizations: assessing their initial experience.

The Social/Health Maintenance Organization (S/HMO) is a four-site national demonstration. This program combines Medicare Part A and B coverage, with various extended and chronic care benefits, into an integrated health plan. The provision of these services extends both the traditional roles of HMOs and that of long-term care community-service case management systems. During the initial 30 months of operation the four S/HMOs shared financial risk with the Health Care Financing Administration. This article reports on this developmental period. During this phase the S/HMOs had lower-than-expected enrollment levels due in part to market competition, underfunding of marketing efforts, the limited geographic area served, and an inability to differentiate the S/HMO product from that of other Medicare HMOs. The S/HMOs were allowed to conduct health screening of applicants prior to enrolling them. The number of nursing home-certifiable enrollees was controlled through this mechanism, but waiting lists were never very long. Persons joining S/HMOs and other Medicare HMOs during this period were generally aware of the alternatives available. S/HMO enrollees favored the more extensive benefits; HMO enrollees considerations of cost. The S/HMOs compare both newly formed HMOs and established HMOs. On the basis of administrator cost, it is more efficient to add chronic care benefits to an HMO than to add an HMO component to a community care provider. All plans had expenses greater than their revenues during the start-up period, but they were generally able to keep service expenditures within planned levels.     

A comparison of satisfaction levels between traditional and managed care Medicare recipients

The Spokane County health department conducted a survey of randomly selected households in the county. The survey combined several previously validated instruments. Since the purpose of this study was to compare satisfaction levels and access and communication issues of Medicare recipients in Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) to Medicare recipients using the traditional fee-for-service (FFS), a subpopulation was used. The results of this study did not support the findings of previous studies; HMO members were older and had no differences in health status from traditional FFS members. HMO members were more educated, had higher incomes, and were more satisfied with their care than the FFS group. The authors suggest that these differences from previous studies may be due to the fact that the majority of HMO respondents are in not-for-profit HMOs which return a fairly high proportion of the insurance premium to the patients in the form of medical care. They also suggest that not-for-profit HMOs may be different than for-profits due to the lack of pressure to return profits to the stockholders.     

The rise and fall of a Kaiser Permanente expansion region

Prepaid group practices (PGPs) multispecialty groups that vertically integrate the organization, financing, and delivery of health services to a specific population—were once viewed as the most cost‐effective and efficient model for achieving national health care reform (e.g., McNeil and Schlenker 1981 ; Saward and Greenlick 1981 ). Policy reformers who extolled the benefits of health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in the late 1970s and early 1980s emphasized in particular the cost and quality advantages of PGPs vis‐à‐vis solo and single‐specialty fee‐for‐service (FFS) providers. A comprehensive review of comparative empirical studies (HMOs versus FFS) since 1950 concluded that the total costs for HMO enrollees were 10 to 40 percent lower than those for comparable enrollees with conventional indemnity insurance ( Luft 1978 ). Although PGPs did not originate as a competitive response to fee‐for‐service indemnity health insurance, many proponents viewed them as a promising means of helping contain rising medical costs, encouraging a more rational allocation of health care resources, and improving the access to and delivery of quality services ( McNeil and Schlenker 1981 ).     

Understanding biased selection in Medicare HMOs

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent of favorable health maintenance organization (HMO) selection for a longitudinal cohort of Medicare beneficiaries, examine whether the extent of favorable selection varies with the degree of Medicare HMO market penetration in a county, and explain conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection. DATA SOURCES: A panel of 1992-1996 data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), supplemented with linked data from the Area Resource File and Medicare administrative datasets. STUDY DESIGN: Using random effects probit estimation, we model a beneficiary's HMO enrollment status as a function of self-reported health status and Medicare HMO market penetration. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: The MCBS data for beneficiaries residing in states served by Medicare HMOs in 1992-1996 were linked by county to the supplementary datasets. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find that favorable selection persists in the cohort over time on some, but not all, measures. We find no substantial association between favorable HMO selection and HMO market penetration. We find that conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection may be explained by several methodological choices, including the choice of health status measure and the structure of the sample. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support further risk adjustment of the adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) payment formula.