Different model for end-stage liver disease score block distributions may have a variable ability for outcome prediction

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system has become the prevailing criteria for organ allocation in liver transplantation. However, it is not clear if the predictive accuracy of MELD is equally homogeneous in different distribution of MELD score blocks. METHODS: We investigated 472 cirrhotic patients (mean MELD, 14.3+/-5.5), and compared the predictive accuracy of MELD and the corresponding Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores in patients with low (<16), intermediate (10-20) and high (>14) MELD score range by using c-statistic for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at different time frames. RESULTS: The MELD scores well correlated with CTP scores at baseline (rho=0.492, P<0.001). Overall, MELD was significantly better than the CTP system to predict the risk of mortality. However, in stratified analysis there were no significant differences between MELD and CTP for the c-statistic in patients with low and intermediate range MELD scores at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month (p values all > 0 1). Among patients with high MELD scores, MELD was consistently more accurate than the CTP system in predicting the mortality at 3- (AUC, 0.715 vs. 0.543, P=0.020), 6- (0.705 vs. 0.536, P=0.003), 9- (0.737 vs. 0.507, P<0.001) and 12-month (0.716 vs. 0.526, P<0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: MELD has a better performance only in a subset of patients with higher MELD scores. The outcome in patients with lower range MELD scores cannot be reliably predicted solely with their MELD scores, and alternative prognostic markers should be used in conjunction to enhance the predictive accuracy.     

终末期肝病模型用于慢性重症肝炎患者肝移植预后的评估

目的 探讨终末期肝病模型(MELD)预测慢性重症肝炎患者肝移植后早期存活率的价值.方法 共有42例慢性重症肝炎患者接受了肝移植,所有患者的原发病均为乙型肝炎.按照2000年修订的重症肝炎临床分期标准,19例为早期,16例为中期,7例为晚期.Child-Pugh分级,除1例为B级外,其余均为C级.对所有患者进行MELD评分和Child-Pugh评分,并进行比较.绘制ROC曲线,根据ROC曲线下面积评估MELD评分和Child-Pugh评分对肝移植后早期死亡率的预测价值.依据两种评分的ROC曲线临界值,分别绘制Kaplan-Meier生存曲线,Log-Rank检验比较生存曲线的组问差异.采用Spearman等级相关检验分析两种评分方式的相关性.结果 随访至术后3个月,42例中,死亡7例.死亡者的MELD评分和Child-Pugh评分分别为(32.97±7.11)分和(12.57±0.98)分,明显高于存活者的(24.90)±4.96)分和(11.51±1.17)分(P＜0.01,P＜0.05).MELD评分评估患者术后3个月内存活率的最佳临界值是25.67,敏感性和特异性分别是85.7 %和60.0 %,ROC曲线下面积为0.841.Child-Pugh评分评估患者术后3个月内存活率的最佳临界值是11.5,敏感性和特异性分别是85.7 %和54.3 %,ROC曲线下面积为0.747.根据两种评分方法绘制的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线均能有效区分可能死亡和可能存活的患者.Spearman等级相关分析表明两种评分方法的相关系数为0.307(P＜0.05).结论 MELD评分和Child-Pugh评分对慢性重症肝炎患者肝移植后早期存活率均有预测价值;MELD评分能够更好的预测慢性重型肝炎患者术后近期死亡率.     

Impact of pretransplant MELD score on posttransplant outcome in orthotopic liver transplantation for patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

This study was performed to evaluate the usefulness of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score to predict short-term postoperative survival and 3-month morbidity among patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from all patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation in our unit from December 1999 to November 2005, on the admission day MELD and CTP scores were calculated for each patient according to the original formula. We evaluated the accuracy of MELD and CTP to predict postoperative short-term survival and 3-month morbidity using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Kaplan-Meier analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Seven of 42 patients died within 3-months follow-up. The MELD scores for nonsurvivors (32.97 +/- 7.11) were significantly higher than those for survivors (24.90 +/- 4.96; P < .05), CTP scores were significantly higher, too (12.57 +/- 0.98, 11.51 +/- 1.17; P < .05). ROC analysis identified the MELD best cut-off point to be 25.67 to predict postoperative morbidity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.841; sensitivity = 85.7%; specificity = 60.0%), and the CTP best cut-off point was 11.5 (AUC = 0.747; sensitivity = 85.7%; specificity = 54.3%). MELD score was superior to CTP score to predict postoperative short-term survival and 3-month morbidity among patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation. CONCLUSION: MELD score was an objective predictive system and more efficient than CTP score to evaluate the risk of 3-month morbidity and short-term prognosis in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation.     

MELD and other predictors of survival after liver transplantation

Abstract: Background: This study examined how reliable is the pre‐transplant model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting post‐transplantation survival and analyzed variables associated with patient survival. Methods: A cohort study was conducted. Receiver operating characteristic curve c‐statistics were used to determine the ability of MELD score to predict mortality. The Kaplan–Meier (KM) method was used to analyze survival as a function of time regarding the MELD score and Child‐Turcotte‐Pugh (CTP) category. The Cox model was employed to assess the association between baseline risk factors and mortality. Results: Recipients and donors were mostly male, with a mean age of 51.6 and 38.5 yr, respectively (n = 436 transplants). The c‐statistic values for three‐month patient mortality were 0.60 and 0.61 for MELD score and CTP category, respectively. KM survival at three, six and 12 months were lower in those who had a MELD score ≥21 or were CTP category C. Multivariate analysis revealed that recipient age ≥65 yr, MELD ≥ 21, CTP C category, bilirubin ≥ 7 mg/dL, creatinine ≥ 1.5 mg/dL, platelet transfusion, hepatocellular carcinoma, and non‐white color donor skin were predictors of mortality. Conclusions: Severe pre‐transplant liver disease, age ≥ 65, non‐white skin donor, and hepatocellular carcinoma are associated with poor outcome.     

A new priority policy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma awaiting liver transplantation within the model for end-stage liver disease system.

The best prioritization of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation under the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) allocation system is still being debated. We analyzed the impact of a MELD adjustment for HCC, which consisted of the addition of an extra score (based on the HCC stage and waiting time) to the native MELD score. The outcome was analyzed for 301 patients with chronic liver disease listed for liver transplantation between March 1, 2001 and February 28, 2003 [United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)-Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) era, 163 patients, 28.8% with HCC] and between March 1, 2003 and February 28, 2004 (HCC-MELD era, 138 patients, 29.7% with HCC). In the HCC-MELD era, the cumulative dropout risk at 6 months was 17.6% for patients with HCC versus 22.3% for those patients without HCC (P = NS), similar to that in the UNOS-CTP era. The cumulative probability of transplantation at 6 months was 70.3% versus 39.0% (P = 0.005), being higher than that in the UNOS-CTP era for patients with HCC (P = 0.02). At the end of the HCC-MELD era, 12 patients with HCC (29.3%) versus 57 without HCC (58.8%) were still on the list (P = 0.001). Both native and adjusted MELD scores were higher (P < 0.05) and progressed more in patients with HCC who dropped out than in those who underwent transplantation or remained on the list (the initial-final native MELD scores were 17.3-23.1, 15.5-15.6, and 12.8-14.1, respectively). The patients without HCC remaining on the list showed stable MELD scores (initial-final: 15.1-15.4). In conclusion, the present data support the strategy of including the native MELD scores in the allocation system for HCC. This model allows the timely transplantation of patients with HCC without severely affecting the outcome of patients without HCC.     

Prognosis after liver transplantation predicted by preoperative MELD score

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been an excellent predictor of 3-month mortality among cirrhotic patients awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the preoperative MELD score predicts short-term prognosis after OLT. We enrolled 98 adult liver transplant patients performed at our center from January 2001 to December 2002. In univariate analysis of risk factors for death within 3 and 6 months after liver transplantation, serum total bilirubin, creatinine, MELD score, hyponatremia with ascites, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score were statistically significant parameters (P < .05). By logistic regression, none of the risk factors were subjected to multivariate analysis showed statistical significance. The odds ratios of the MELD score, hyponatremia with ascites, CTP score within 3 months were 0.997, 1.151, and 0.726 with 95% confidence intervals of [0.899, 1.105], [0.102, 12.959], and [0.389, 1.352], respectively. The odds ratio of MELD score, hyponatremia with ascites, CTP score within 6 months were 0.996, 0.914, and 0.764, with 95% confidence intervals of [0.901, 1.102], [0.089, 9.369], and [0.417, 1.401], respectively. Although MELD score has been a good predictor of short-term prognosis before OLT, MELD did not show an influence on the short-term prognosis after liver transplantation in this study.     

Model for the end-stage liver disease and death prediction in a cohort of Brazilian patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation

Abstract: Background/aim: To examine the performance of the model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) score to predict mortality three and six months after enlistment of patients with chronic diseases for their first liver transplantation (LT) and to compare the performances of the Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) and the Erasmus Model for End‐stage Resistant‐to‐therapy All etiology Liver Disease (EMERALD) scores with the MELD to predict mortality. Methods: Cohort study. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) curves were used to determine the ability of the scores for predicting three and six month mortality, the c‐statistic to establish the predictive power of each score and the Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the risk of dying. Results: We studied 271 patients. At enlistment, the mean MELD and EMERALD scores were 14.8 and 26.6, respectively. Approximately 61% of the cases were in the CTP B category. During the three or six month follow‐up period, the percentage of patients dying, receiving LT or remaining on the list were 11.8%, 9.2%, and 79.0% or 19.2%, 17.7%, and 63.1%, respectively. The three‐month mortality was similarly predicted by the scores MELD, EMERALD and CTP (c‐statistic of 0.79, 0.74, and 0.70, respectively). Six‐month mortality presented similar AUC and ROC curves. Conclusion: The scores predicted mortality for the three or six months, but the performance of the MELD was better than CTP and EMERALD scores.     

Selecting an optimal cutoff value for creatinine in the model for end‐stage liver disease equation

Huo T‐I, Hsu C‐Y, Lin H‐C, Lee P‐C, Lee J‐Y, Lee F‐Y, Hou M‐C, Lee S‐D. Selecting an optimal cutoff value for creatinine in the model for end‐stage liver disease equation.
Clin Transplant 2009 DOI: 10.1111/j.1399‐0012.2009.01099.x.
© 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Abstract: Background: The model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) is used for organ allocation in liver transplantation. The maximal serum creatinine (Cr) level for MELD is set at 4.0 mg/dL; however, there was no outcome data to justify this strategy. Methods: Ninety‐two patients with cirrhosis with Cr level >4 mg/dL were selected from 1438 patients and compared with MELD score‐matched controls for three‐month and six‐month mortality. Results: At three months, patients with Cr level >4 mg/dL had a significantly higher mortality rate than the 184 controls with a lower Cr level (44.6% vs. 29.3%, p = 0.015). This trend was still significant at six months: the mortality rate was 62% in the index group vs. 45.1% in the control group (p = 0.011). The difference between the index and control groups was the smallest (2.5% at three months and 3.4% at six months) when Cr was up‐scaled to 5.5 mg/dL. The predictive accuracy of the MELD was estimated by using area under receiver‐operating characteristic (AUC) curve. Only the cutoff of 5.5 mg/dL at six months displayed a higher AUC (0.753). Conclusions: A cutoff at 5.5 mg/dL may be more appropriate for the MELD. The MELD for patients with cirrhosis with advanced renal insufficiency deserves re‐evaluation.     

Model for end-stage liver disease and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score as predictors of pretransplantation disease severity,posttransplantation outcome,and resource utilization in United Network for Organ Sharing status 2A patients

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been proposed as a replacement for the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification to stratify patients for prioritization for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Improved classification of patients with decompensated cirrhosis might allow timely OLT before the development of life-threatening complications, reducing the number of critically ill patients listed as United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) status 2A at the time of OLT. We compared the ability of the MELD and CTP scores to predict pre-OLT disease severity, as well as outcome and resource utilization post-OLT. Data from 42 consecutive UNOS status 2A patients undergoing OLT at a single center were used to calculate MELD and CTP scores at the time of status 2A listing. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the relationship between these scores and pre-OLT disease severity measures, survival post-OLT, and measures of resource use post-OLT. The MELD was superior to CTP score in predicting pre-OLT requirements for mechanical ventilation and dialysis. Neither score correlated with the resource utilization parameters studied. Only two patients died within 3 months post-OLT; neither score was predictive of survival in this cohort. In summary, the MELD is superior to CTP score in estimating pre-OLT disease severity in UNOS status 2A patients and thus may help risk stratify status 2A or decompensated status 2B OLT candidates and optimize the timing of OLT. However, neither score correlated with resource use post-OLT in the strata of critically ill patients. (Liver Transpl 2002;8:278-284.)     

A systematic review of the performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in the setting of liver transplantation.

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is now used for allocation in liver transplantation (LT) waiting lists, replacing the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. However, there is debate as whether it is superior to CTP score to predict mortality in patients with cirrhosis on the LT waiting list and after LT. We reviewed studies comparing the accuracy of MELD vs. CTP score in transplantation settings. We found that in studies of the LT waiting list (12,532 patients with cirrhosis), only 4 of 11 showed MELD to be superior to CTP in predicting short-term (3-month) mortality. In addition, 2 of 3 studies (n = 1,679) evaluating the changes in MELD score (DeltaMELD) showed that DeltaMELD had better prediction for mortality than the baseline MELD score. The impact of MELD on post-LT mortality was assessed in 15 studies (20,456 patients); only 6 (9,522 patients) evaluated the discriminative ability of MELD score using the concordance (c) statistic (the MELD score had always a c-statistic < 0.70). In 11 studies (19,311 patients), high MELD score indicated poor post-LT mortality for cutoff values of 24-40 points. In re-LT patients, 2 of 4 studies evaluated the discriminative ability of MELD score on post-LT mortality. Finally, several studies have shown that the predictive ability of MELD score increases by adding clinical variables (hepatic encephalopathy, ascites) or laboratory (sodium) parameters. On the basis of the current literature, MELD score does not perform better than the CTP score for patients with cirrhosis on the waiting list and cannot predict post-LT mortality.     

Determination of the optimal model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy.

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been a prevailing system to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. An "exceptional" MELD score of 20 and 24 points is assigned for stage T1 and T2 patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), respectively. However, this strategy is based on scarce data and the optimal score for these patients remains uncertain. We investigated 238 patients with small HCC who were candidates for liver transplantation and underwent arterial chemoembolization or percutaneous injection therapy using acetic acid or ethanol. Tumor stage (P = .001) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class (P < .001) were independent risk factors predicting tumor progression or death in survival analysis. The risk of disease progression in HCC patients stratified by tumor stage was mapped and equated with the risk of mortality of 456 cirrhotic patients without HCC. The 6- and 12-month rates of disease progression were 4% and 6%, respectively, for stage T1 HCC patients (n = 50; mean MELD: 9.5). These rates were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 8-12 at the corresponding time period (7.1% and 11.3%, respectively; n = 141). For stage T2 patients (n = 188; mean MELD: 9.3), the corresponding rates were 5.3% and 13.8%, respectively, which were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 10-14 (9.0% and 13.9%, respectively, n = 166). In conclusion, the risk of disease progression is quite low for selected HCC patients undergoing loco-regional therapy. A lower MELD score may be suggested to be equivalent to the risk of short- and mid-term mortality in the cirrhosis group.     

MELD fails to measure quality of life in liver transplant candidates.

Previous studies have demonstrated an association between Child Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class and impaired quality of life. However, the relationship between the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and quality of life (QOL) has not been well studied. In this study, quality of life questionnaires (Medical Outcomes Short Form 36 [SF-36] and the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire [CLDQ]) were administered to 150 adult patients awaiting liver transplantation. We also collected demographic data and laboratory results and recorded manifestations of hepatic decompensation. The study found that all domains of the SF-36 and CLDQ were significantly lower in our patient cohort than in normal controls (P < .001). There was a moderate negative correlation between CPT class and physical components of the SF-36 (r = -.30), while there was a weak negative correlation (r = -.10) between CPT class and the mental component. There was a negative moderate correlation between CPT class and overall CLDQ (r = -.39, P < .001) and a weak correlation (r = -.20) between MELD score and overall CLDQ score. Both encephalopathy (correlation coefficient = -.713, P = .004) and ascites (correlation coefficient = -.68, P = .006) were predictive of the QOL using CLDQ (adjusted R(2) = .1494 and f = 0.000). In conclusion, in liver transplant candidates, the severity of liver disease assessed by the MELD score was not predictive of QOL. The presence of ascites and/or encephalopathy was significantly associated with poor quality of life. CTP correlates better to QOL, probably because it contains ascites and encephalopathy.     

Child-Turcotte-Pugh评分与终未期肝病模型对晚期肝癌患者围介入术期的预后评估

目的探讨Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分与终未期肝病模型(MELD)预测晚期肝癌围介入手术期患者生存期的优缺点及互补性。方法收集100例晚期肝癌患者,均行TACE,术前根据MELD公式计算患者的MELD值,并同时计算CTP评分。应用ROC曲线及其曲线下面积(AUC)分析并比较MELD、CTP评分预测患者生存时间的价值。结果采用CTP评分判断患者TACE术前、术后3、6个月生存期的的AUC分别为0.540、0.754、0.889,而采用MELD评分时分别为0.682、0.701、0.801。2种模型判断患者生存时间的AUC差异均有统计学意义(P均0.05)。结论在判断晚期肝癌短期预后方面,MELD与CTP评分均为较好的指标。     

终末期肝病模型评分及MELD-Na评分评估肝衰竭肝移植短期预后的对比观察

目的探讨终末期肝病模型（model for end-stage liver disease, MELD）评分与MELD-Na评分对肝衰竭患者行肝移植短期预后（3个月）的临床价值。 方法收集从2012年1月至2019年12月在中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九〇〇医院因肝衰竭行肝移植的86例患者的术前及术中临床资料。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评价MELD和MELD-Na评分对短期预后的鉴别能力并根据Youden指数确定最佳的cut-off值。 结果86例患者中早期死亡21例（24.4%）。术前MELD评分（P=0.001）和术中输血量（P<0.001）是肝衰竭行肝移植患者早期死亡的独立危险因素。MELD和MELD-Na评分预测肝移植术后早期死亡的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.696和0.686，差异无统计学意义（P=0.677）。MELD≥24.3组、MELD<24.3组的早期生存率分别为51.7%（15/29）和87.7%（50/57），MELD-Na≥25.7组、MELD<25.7组的早期生存率分别为54.9%（17/31）和87.3%（48/55），差异均有统计学意义（P<0.001），MELD评分与MELD-Na评分升高时，早期生存率降低。 结论在预测肝衰竭行肝移植患者早期预后方面，MELD评分与MELD-Na评分预测能力无明显差异。MELD评分与术中输血量是患者早期死亡的独立危险因素。     

Predictive models in cirrhosis: correlation with the final results and costs of liver transplantation in Chile

Medical scores for predicting survival are essential to stratify patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) for prioritization for liver transplantation (OLT). Recently the UNOS has adopted the Mayo Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score as the basis for liver allocation in the United States. We retrospectively evaluated and assessed the prognostic impact, the length of stay (LOS), and hospital charges for OLT using two severity scores (Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] versus MELD) to stratify cirrhotic patients before OLT. Twenty-six consecutive adult cirrhotic patients (11 women, mean age 46 years) underwent LT between 2000 and 2002. The main causes for transplantation were alcohol and primary biliary cirrhosis. The mean CTP and MELD scores at the moment of listing for OLT were 8.9 and 16.3 points, respectively. The best discriminative values with prognostic impact in terms of outcome and costs of OLT were a Child Pugh score >/=11 points or a MELD score >/=20 points. Patients in these strata showed a significant increase in LOS in the hospital (from a mean of 12 to 22 days) and intensive care stay (from a mean of 4 to 14 days) post-OLT when compared with patients with a lower CTP or MELD score (P <.05). There was also a trend toward higher hospital charges (P =.06). Organ allocation by MELD score will probably adversely affect the LOS and hospital charges of patients being transplanted due to ESLD.     

Impact of the MELD score on waiting time and disease severity in liver transplantation in United States veterans.

Organ allocation for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States is based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. The MELD score prioritizes organ distribution to sicker patients. There is limited data on the effect of this policy on transplantation in the Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the MELD score on U.S. veteran patients undergoing LT. Comparison of MELD scores and waiting time of LT recipients before and after the introduction of the MELD system was done. A total of 192 LT recipients were analyzed. Blood type, diagnosis, listing MELD score, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score at transplant did not differ although MELD era recipients were older (mean 54.3 vs. 51.3 yr, P = 0.009). Mean waiting time decreased from 461 days (pre-MELD) to 252 days (MELD era) (P = 0.004). Mean MELD score at LT increased from 23.4 (MELD era) compared to 20.3 (pre-MELD) (P = 0.01). In conclusion, waiting time for LT in U.S. veterans has decreased significantly in the MELD era. The MELD score of patients transplanted in the MELD era is significantly higher and patients are still being listed at a high MELD score. The MELD system has lead to sicker veterans being transplanted with shorter waiting times.     

MELD和CTP评分系统在慢性重型乙型肝炎患者短期预后评估中的价值

目的应用终末期肝病模型（MELD）和Child—Turcotte—Pugh（CTP）评分系统预测慢性重型乙型肝炎患者的短期预后,并探讨两者的临床应用价值。方法回顾性分析115例慢性重型乙型肝炎患者的资料,根据治疗3个月时的生存情况将患者分为生存组和死亡组,并用MELD和CTP评分系统进行评分。应用受试者工作特征曲线评价每一模型的预测价值,并用K—M生存曲线分析不同预测模型的差异。结果死亡组CTP和MELD平均分值明显高于生存组（t值分别为4．891和3．949,P值均〈0．05）,2个评分系统显著相关（y=0．500,P=0．000）。MELD和CTP分值能够较好地预测慢性重型乙型肝炎患者3个月内的病死率,C—statistic分别为0．765和0．834,两者的预测能力比较差异无统计学意义（Z=1．516,P〉0．05）。CTP评分〈10．5分和MELD评分〈27．5分患者的生存时间分别较CTP评分〉10．5分和MELD评分〉27．5分患者长（Z值分别为17．88和25．28,P值均为0.000）,生存率也显著增高,差异有统计学意义（X^2值分别为16．88和31．59,P值均为0,000）：结论MELD和CTP评分系统在预测慢性重型乙型肝炎患者短期预后方面效果相近,使用时可结合临床资料,以提高预测的准确度。     

整合终末期肝病模型在慢加急性肝功能衰竭预后判断及治疗中的应用

目的探讨整合终末期肝病模型(iMELD)评分系统对慢加急性肝功能衰竭(ACLF)患者近期与远期预后的判断价值,及其对人工肝治疗选择的指导意义。 方法回顾性分析2003年1月至2007年12月江苏省南通市第三人民医院收治的232例乙型肝炎慢加急性肝功能衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者队列的临床资料,其中生存组83例,死亡组149例。根据基线肝肾功能、电解质、凝血酶原时间和并发症等,计算终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na、integrated MELD(iMELD)、Child-Turcotte-Pugh评分(CTP)、改良Child评分(mCTP)5种模型评分;随访两组患者90 d的生存率。分别从鉴别力、校准度和整体性能3个方面评价5种评分系统预后预测的准确性;探讨单指标血浆凝血酶原活动度(PTA)和此5种模型在文献报道的临界值指导下对患者选择人工肝治疗的准确性和可靠性,用决策曲线分析(DCA)方法计算各个模型及"全治疗"策略的净获益,评价模型对预测疗效的临床意义。 结果MELD、MELD-Na、iMELD、CTP、mCTP 5种评分系统均能较好利用数据信息,且与ACLF患者预后有显著相关性;在判断患者90 d预后时,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.63、0.64、0.68、0.62和0.64;iMELD均优于其他评分系统(t = 8.318、P <0.001);iMELD评分的最佳临界值具有最好的病死风险判断力;Nagelkerke’s R²和Brier评分结果提示iMELD整体判断能力最优。以55为界值,iMELD短期预后判断能力的敏感度为86.8%,特异度为49.5%,AUC = 0.68;iMELD预测能力优于PTA单指标(t= 5.866、P <0.001)以及其他模型;阈值概率(Pt)为23%～65%时,基于iMELD评分决定是否应用人工肝治疗,净获益高于"全治疗"策略,相当于每100例患者中可减少不必要的人工肝治疗最多达20例,提示使用iMELD模型指导可节约20%的人工肝资源,同时亦不增加漏掉需要人工肝治疗患者的几率。 结论iMELD模型在判断ACLF患者近期与远期预后方面的价值较高,对临床选择合适病例进行人工肝支持系统治疗具有指导意义。     

Limitation of the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis-related complications

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Bleeding esophageal varices, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy are major complications of cirrhosis and traditional indications for liver transplantation evaluation. However, these complications are not included in the MELD and it is not clear if these complications correlate with MELD score in terms of outcome prediction. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of cirrhosis-related complication as a prognostic predictor in 290 cirrhotic patients. The MELD score and outcome were compared between patients with and without cirrhosis-related complications. There was no significant difference of the MELD score between patients with (n = 67) and without (n = 223) complications (11.6 +/- 2.9 vs. 12.2 +/- 3.2, p = 0.184). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 for MELD vs. 0.604 for complications (p = 0.174) at six months, and the area was 0.641 for MELD vs. 0.611 for complications (p = 0.522) at 12 months. A high MELD score and presence of complications had a similar profile of predictive accuracy and both were significant predictors of mortality at six and 12 months in multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients with cirrhosis-related complications at presentation had a decreased survival compared with those without complications (p < 0.0001). In conclusion, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications is a predictor of poor prognosis. While early transplantation referral is recommended, these patients do not necessarily have a higher MELD score and could be down-staged in the MELD era.     

Hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis: Model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score predicts perioperative mortality

Hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis is generally recommended for patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) Class A liver disease and early tumor stage. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been shown to accurately predict survival in patients with cirrhosis, but whether MELD is useful for selection of patients with cirrhosis for hepatic resection is unknown. We examined whether MELD was predictive of perioperative mortality and correlated MELD with other potential clinicopathologic factors to overall survival in patients with cirrhosis undergoing hepatic resection for HCC. A retrospective chart review was undertaken of patients with HCC and cirrhosis undergoing hepatic resection between 1993 and 2003. Eighty-two patients (62 men, 20 women; mean age, 62 years) were identified. Forty-five patients had MELD score ≥9 (range, 9–15) and CTP score ranged from 5 to 9 points. Fifty-nine patients underwent minor (<3 segments) hepatic resections (MELD ≤8, n = 29; MELD ≥9, n = 30) and 23 underwent major (≥3 segments) hepatic resections (MELD ≤8, n = 8; MELD ≥9, n = 15). Perioperative mortality rate was 16%. MELD score ≤8 was associated with no perioperative mortality versus 29% for patients with an MELD score ≥9 (P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that MELD score ≥9 (P < 0.01), clinical tumor symptoms (P < 0.01), and ASA score (P = 0.046) are independent predictors of perioperative mortality. Multivariate analysis showed MELD ≥9 (P < 0.01), tumor size >5 cm(P < 0.01), high tumor grade (P = 0.03), and absence of tumor capsule (P < 0.01) as independent predictors of decreased long-term survival. MELD score was a strong predictor of both perioperative mortality and long-term survival in patients with cirrhosis undergoing hepatic resection for HCC. In patients with cirrhosis, hepatic resection (minor or major) for HCC is recommended if the MELD score is ≤8. In patients with MELD score ≥9, other treatment modalities should be considered. Presented at the Forty-Sixth Annual Meeting of The Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, Chicago, Illinois, May 14–18, 2005 (oral presentation).