Healthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathematical model

BackgroundIn India, the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 epidemic has grown to 1251 cases and 32 deaths as on 30 Mar 2020. The healthcare impact of the epidemic in India was studied using a stochastic mathematical model.MethodsA compartmental SEIR model was developed, in which the flow of individuals through compartments is modeled using a set of differential equations. Different scenarios were modeled with 1000 runs of Monte Carlo simulation each using MATLAB. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) requirements, and deaths were modeled on SimVoi software. The impact of nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated.ResultsUninterrupted epidemic in India would have resulted in more than 364 million cases and 1.56 million deaths with peak by mid-July. As per the model, at current growth rate of 1.15, India is likely to reach approximately 3 million cases by 25 May, implying 125,455 (±18,034) hospitalizations, 26,130 (±3298) ICU admissions, and 13,447 (±1819) deaths. This would overwhelm India's healthcare system. The model shows that with immediate institution of NPIs, the epidemic might still be checked by mid-April 2020. It would then result in 241,974 (±33,735) total infections, 10,214 (±1649) hospitalizations, 2121 (±334) ICU admissions, and 1081 (±169) deaths.ConclusionAt the current growth rate of epidemic, India's healthcare resources will be overwhelmed by the end of May. With the immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements, and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%.     

The infodemics of COVID-19 amongst healthcare professionals in India

BackgroundThere is a deluge of information and misinformation about COVID-19. The present survey was conducted to explore the sources of information /misinformation for healthcare professionals from India.MethodsA cross-sectional online survey using snowballing technique was conducted from 24 Mar to 10 Apr 2020. The questionnaire was pretested and developed using standard techniques. It was circulated among medical students and physicians. Data were analysed using the STATA software.ResultsData of 758 participants were analysed. A total of 255 (33.6%) medical students, 335 (44.2%) nonspecialists and 168 (22.1%) specialists participated. The most common source of formal and informal information was official government websites and online news, respectively. A total of 517 (68.2%) participants accepted receiving misinformation. Social media and family and friends were the most common sources of misinformation. Seventy-two percent of participants agreed that spread of information helped to contain COVID-19, but more than that 75% agreed to having received inaccurate information. Seventy-four percent of respondents felt the need for regulation of information during such times; 26% and 33% felt that information about COVID-19 made them feel uncomfortable and distracts routine decision-making, respectively, and 50% felt it was difficult to differentiate correct from incorrect information about COVID-19.ConclusionThe study explored the sources of information and misinformation and found a high prevalence of misinformation, especially from social media. We suggest the need to better manage the flow of information so that it can be an effective weapon against SARS-CoV2. There is a need for doctors to adapt to the changing times of infodemics accompanying pandemics.     

Predictive models of COVID-19 in India: A rapid review

BackgroundThe mathematical modelling of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has been attempted by a wide range of researchers from the very beginning of cases in India. Initial analysis of available models revealed large variations in scope, assumptions, predictions, course, effect of interventions, effect on health-care services, and so on. Thus, a rapid review was conducted for narrative synthesis and to assess correlation between predicted and actual values of cases in India.MethodsA comprehensive, two-step search strategy was adopted, wherein the databases such as Medline, google scholar, MedRxiv, and BioRxiv were searched. Later, hand searching for the articles and contacting known modelers for unpublished models was resorted. The data from the included studies were extracted by the two investigators independently and checked by third researcher.ResultsBased on the literature search, 30 articles were included in this review. As narrative synthesis, data from the studies were summarized in terms of assumptions, model used, predictions, main recommendations, and findings. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) between predicted and actual values (n = 20) was 0.7 (p = 0.002) with R2 = 0.49. For Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) and its variant models (n = 16) ‘r’ was 0.65 (p = 0.02). The correlation for long-term predictions could not be assessed due to paucity of information.ConclusionReview has shown the importance of assumptions and strong correlation between short-term projections but uncertainties for long-term predictions. Thus, short-term predictions may be revised as more and more data become available. The assumptions too need to expand and firm up as the pandemic evolves.     

新型冠状病毒疫苗接种对维持性血液透析合并COVID-19患者的价值

目的 探讨接种新型冠状病毒疫苗（新冠疫苗）对维持性血液透析（MHD）患者新型冠状病毒感染（COVID-19）严重程度的影响。方法 回顾性分析2022年12月至2023年1月安徽医科大学附属阜阳人民医院肾内科收治的166例终末期肾脏病行MHD合并COVID-19患者的临床资料。依据疫苗接种情况分为未接种组（接种0针）及接种组（接种≥2针）。比较两组患者临床特征及短期预后，并应用logistic回归模型分析患者住院及重症风险增加的独立危险因素。结果 166例MHD合并COVID-19患者中，未接种组91例（54.8%），接种组75例（45.2%）。未接种组年龄与吸烟比例高于接种组（P<0.05）。感染新型冠状病毒肺炎后，患者临床表现多样，发热（73.1%）、乏力（65.6%）、食欲减退（57.5%）最常见。接种组使用激素、中心吸氧、住院、重症比例明显减少，治愈患者比例显著增加（P<0.05）。接种新冠疫苗可减少MHD患者住院（OR=0.364，95% CI：0.147~0.901）及重症（OR=0.182，95% CI：0.037~0.901）发生风险。合并糖尿病、冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病（冠心病）是MHD合并COVID-19患者住院及重症风险增加的独立危险因素，年龄是其重症风险增加的独立危险因素。结论 终末期肾脏病接受MHD合并COVID-19患者临床表现多样，合并糖尿病、冠心病患者住院及重症风险均增加，年龄增加患者重症风险增加，接种新冠疫苗可减少住院及重症风险。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎的HRCT影像学特征分析

目的探讨新型冠状病毒肺炎的早期影像学特征,及时诊断,早期防控。方法回顾性分析我院自2020年1月24日至2020年2月29日确诊的8例新型冠状病毒肺炎的影像学特征,对患者首诊的X线胸片和胸部高分辨率CT(HRCT)进行征象观察并统计分析。结果8例患者均以发热为首诊症状。X线胸片对下肺近肺底病灶易漏诊(1例)。病变呈肺野外带分布的占7例(87.5%),病灶累及双肺下叶的占5例(62.5%),8例病例均可见磨玻璃密度影(100%),伴随征象有小叶间隔增厚5例(62.5%),增粗的血管影或增厚的支气管壁4例(50%),网格状改变1例(12.5%)。因此,新型冠状病毒肺炎早期相对特征性的表现有:(1)病变分布特点呈肺野外带、胸膜下分布,以两下肺多见;(2)病变密度特点以磨玻璃密度最常见;(3)病变的伴随征象有:小叶间隔增厚、血管影增粗、支气管壁增厚或网格状改变等。结论HRCT是新型冠状病毒肺炎首选筛查和诊断的影像学检查方法,发热门诊专用CT在疫情防控中起了重要的作用。     

武汉市新冠肺炎流行期间一例输入性恶性疟死亡病例分析

目的 探讨新型冠状病毒肺炎流行期内一例恶性疟死亡病例发生因素,为重大公共卫生事件暴发时输入性疟疾提供防控策略参考。方法 收集该死亡病例流行病学、实验室检测及临床治疗等资料并进行分析。结果 该病例发病-诊断时间7 d,疟原虫密度>5.0×10⁵ /μL血,红细胞3.10×10¹²/L,血红蛋白89.00 g/L,血小板2.00×10⁹/L,白细胞18.85×10⁹ /L,总胆红素296.10 μmol/L,尿素55.30 μmol/L,肌酐799.00 μmol/L,葡萄糖2.20 mmol/L,乳酸 15.00 mmol/L, D-二聚体>7.80 μg/mL,诊断为恶性疟（脑型）、贫血、感染性休克、低血糖、肝肾功能衰竭、代谢性酸中毒及凝血功能异常。结论 重大公共卫生事件暴发时应制定分类指导,统筹兼顾的科学防控措施,应加强疟疾防治健康教育、病人排查并提供就医通道。     

Management of COVID-19: A comprehensive and practical approach

Since the beginning of Corona Virus Disease (COVID) pandemic, there has been lack of clarity about the management protocols in spite of frequently updated national and international guidelines. Irrational use of unproven therapies has not been helpful in improving treatment outcomes. Early use of high-dose steroids or late use of antiviral medicines might have caused more harm than the benefit. There is also lot of fear about post-COVID fibrosis leading to extended use of steroids and antifibrotics. We reviewed the available COVID guidelines and treatment protocols in the light of scientific evidence generated over last 2 years by a systematic literature search using various databases (PubMed, Google Scholar, MEDLINE, UpToDate, Embase, and Web of Science). This article presents a comprehensive approach to the diagnosis, appropriate investigations, their interpretations, and use of specific therapies according to the stage of disease.     

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Current Status and Prospects for Drug and Vaccine Development

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Bronchiectasis and COVID-19 infection: a two-way street

Bronchiectasis (BE) has been linked to past viral infections such as influenza, measles, or adenovirus. Two years ago, a new pandemic viral infection severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) broke out and it still persists today, and a significant proportion of surviving patients have radiological and clinical sequelae, including BE. Our aim was to thoroughly review the information available in the literature on the bidirectional relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the development of BE, as well as the impact of this infection on patients already suffering from BE. Available information indicates that only a small percentage of patients in the acute phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia develop BE, although the latter is recognized as one of the radiological sequelae of COVID-19 pneumonia, especially when it is caused by traction. The severity of the initial pneumonia is the main risk factor for the development of future BE, but during the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbations in BE patients were reduced by approximately 50%. Finally, the impact of BE on the prognosis of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia is not yet known.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间急诊手术患者感染防控策略

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情期间,大型综合医院手术室在疫情管控、急症救治等方面发挥着重要作用。急诊手术患者由于病情紧急,有时甚至无法在手术前进行完整流行病学史的排查,这对手术室围术期感染防控是一项严峻的挑战。我们从疫情期间急诊手术开展的现状入手,通过术前评估、负压手术间运作、接诊流程防控、人员与特殊物资配备、术中与术后防控、人员培训等多方面探讨防控策略,为急诊患者的围术期感染防控提供解决方案,保护医患安全。     

COVID-19 in children: epidemic issues and candidate vaccines

A large-scale vaccination of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) in adults has been conducted for nearly a year, and there is a growing recognition that immunization for children is also essential. It has been months since emergency use of pediatric COVID-19 vaccine was approved, we reviewed the prevalence and transmission of COVID-19 in children. The prevalence of COVID-19 in children is reduced due to vaccination even in a Delta prevalent period, so an increase in the vaccination rate is needed in children. Although the precise role of children in the transmission requires more research to uncover, they likely played a significant role, according to the available literature. We also described four candidate COVID-19 vaccines for children on their safety and immunogenicity and the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants on childhood vaccination. Safety issues on pediatric vaccines post-approval, like adverse events following immunization and adverse events of special interest require studies on long-term and effective regulatory mechanisms.     

基于DEA模型的新冠疫情防控效率评价

使用DEA模型对14个国家的新冠疫情防控效率进行评价,结果显示,我国的医疗资源配置效率为DEA有效,疫情防控效果较好。作为评价样本的欧洲各国的医疗资源配置效率普遍较低,日本与韩国的医疗资源配置效率相对较高,俄罗斯的医疗资源配置冗余最高。人均医疗资源数量与疫情防控效果并未呈现较强的相关性,一些医疗资源丰富的国家还有待提升医疗资源配置效率。     

Drug repurposing against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A review

Since December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has been found to be the culprit in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), causing a global pandemic. Despite the existence of many vaccine programs, the number of confirmed cases and fatalities due to COVID-19 is still increasing. Furthermore, a number of variants have been reported. Because of the absence of approved anti-coronavirus drugs, the treatment and management of COVID-19 has become a global challenge. Under these circumstances, drug repurposing is an effective method to identify candidate drugs with a shorter cycle of clinical trials. Here, we summarize the current status of the application of drug repurposing in COVID-19, including drug repurposing based on virtual computer screening, network pharmacology, and bioactivity, which may be a beneficial COVID-19 treatment.     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间糖尿病患者的管理及注意事项

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）是一种新型传染病,其重症患者中合并糖尿病或高血糖比例较高,治疗困难,死亡率较高,因此疫情状况下有效的糖尿病管理极其重要。本文对新型冠状病毒肺炎与糖尿病之间的相互关系及诊治建议进行概述,以增加对疾病的认识,改善糖尿病患者的预后和转归。     

The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the development of obsessive-compulsive symptoms in Saudi Arabia

Objectives:To explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) symptoms and its correlation with the level of perceived stress among the Saudi population.Methods:In July 2020, a cross-sectional survey of 2909 participants in Saudi Arabia during the outbreak was conducted to collect data related to sociodemographic characteristics and scores on the Brief Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (BOCS) and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS).Results:Most participants were female (73.9%) with a university level of education or higher (81%). The prevalence of new-onset obsessions was 57.8%, compulsions 45.9%, and moderate/high perceived stress 72.4%. New-onset dirt, germs, and virus obsessions were significantly higher among 40-49 age group, employees, housewives, students, quarantine discipliners, and those who spent 20 or more days in quarantine. New-onset hand-washing compulsions were significantly higher among the 30-49 age group. A significantly higher level of perceived stress was reported among those in the 18-29 age group, females, singles, participants with no children, students, non-smokers, those who were unemployed, living with families, diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder, living in the northern region, quarantine discipliners, and those who spent 60 or more days in quarantine.Conclusion:This study revealed a significantly higher prevalence of high perceived stress in respondents with new-onset OCD contamination symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. This implies that a biodisaster is associated with high psychological morbidity.     

新冠肺炎疫情期间高校图书馆的微信舆情导向研究

新型冠状病毒感染肺炎的爆发，引起了社会相关舆论爆发式增长。研究疫情期间高校图书馆的微信舆情，可以为日后进行突发公共舆情引导提供解决方案。通过分析2020年1月21日至2月11日期间42所“世界一流大学”建设高校的图书馆微信公众号的推送频次、发文数量、文章内容、发文趋势，发现疫情期间高校图书馆能够响应防控政策、解决读者需求、发挥专业优势进行舆情引导，并提出了高校图书馆建立应对突发事件舆情的相关策略。     

重症COVID-19预测模型的建立和评价

目的 建立重症新型冠状病毒性肺炎(COVID-19)的预测模型,并对模型进行评价.方法 回顾性分析2020年1月1日至3月10日于江汉大学附属湖北省第三人民医院确诊的314例COVID-19患者入院时的基线资料,按住院后是否进展为重症COVID-19分为重症组(76例)和非重症组(238例),将两组患者间差异显著的指标...