Machine learning-based scoring system to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

BackgroundThe evolution of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still hard to predict, even after several months of dealing with the pandemic.AimsTo develop and validate a score to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.MethodsAll consecutive adults hospitalized for COVID-19 from February to April 2020 were included in a nationwide observational study. Primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit from an emergency department or conventional ward, or in-hospital death. A score that estimates the risk of experiencing the primary outcome was constructed from a derivation cohort using stacked LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator), and was tested in a validation cohort.ResultsAmong 2873 patients analysed (57.9% men; 66.6 ± 17.0 years), the primary outcome occurred in 838 (29.2%) patients: 551 (19.2%) were transferred to an intensive care unit; and 287 (10.0%) died in-hospital without transfer to an intensive care unit. Using stacked LASSO, we identified 11 variables independently associated with the primary outcome in multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort (n = 2313), including demographics (sex), triage vitals (body temperature, dyspnoea, respiratory rate, fraction of inspired oxygen, blood oxygen saturation) and biological variables (pH, platelets, C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, estimated glomerular filtration rate). The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) risk score was then developed, and displayed accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.75–0.80). The CCF risk score performed significantly better (i.e. higher C-statistics) than the usual critical care risk scores.ConclusionsThe CCF risk score was built using data collected routinely at hospital admission to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19. This score holds promise to improve early triage of patients and allocation of healthcare resources.     

Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid and spike proteins in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: A multicenter,retrospective, cross-sectional study in Japan

BackgroundThere are many commercially available automated assays for assessing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immune responses; however, owing to insufficient data, their validities remain unknown. Here, we examined antibody responses during acute-phase COVID-19 using four assays that detect anti-spike protein IgM (S-IgM), anti-nucleocapsid protein IgG (N-IgG), anti-spike protein total Ig (S-total Ig), and anti-spike protein IgG (S-IgG).MethodsWe measured antibody levels in 1154 serum samples collected from 286 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 by a gene amplification method between February and December 2020 in Japan. Sera from 860 healthcare workers were used as negative controls.ResultsThe antibody positivity rates increased on week 2, peaked, and then started to plateau by the beginning of week 3 after symptom onset. On week 1, there were some significant differences in seropositivity rates between assays (p = 0.032): 14.9% (11.0%–19.4%) for S-IgM and 8.9% (6.0%–12.7%) for N-IgG. The seropositivity for the S-total Ig (10.6% [7.3%–14.6%]) assay was considerably better than that for the S-IgG (6.9% [4.3%–10.4%]) assay, although the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.150). The levels of S-IgM antibodies and the three others peaked on weeks 3 and 5, respectively. All four assays showed high specificities (>99%).ConclusionsAll four assays had good specificities and were suitable for seropositivity detection after week 3 of symptom onset. Assays of IgM alone or total Ig (containing IgM) were better than those of IgG alone as an adjunct serological test for early-stage COVID-19 diagnosis, albeit the use of a serological assay alone is insufficient.     

Adult cardiac surgery during COVID-19 lockdown: Impact on activity and outcomes in a high-volume centre

Central illustration. Impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on adult cardiac surgery activity.

     

Pattern of liver function and clinical profile in COVID-19: A cross-sectional study of 91 patients

Background– COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 leads to myriad range of organ involvement including liver dysfunction.AimTo analyse the liver function in patients with COVID-19 and their association with respect to age, sex, severity of disease and clinical features.Materials and methodsThis study was a cross-sectional study done at Rajendra Institute of Medical Sciences, Ranchi. 91 patients admitted with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in this study and divided into asymptomatic, mild, moderate and severe groups. Liver function tests were compared among different severity groups.ResultsOf 91 patients with COVID-19, 70 (76.9%) had abnormal liver function. Aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), total bilirubin levels was 1–2 × ULN in 33(36.3%), 34(37.3%), 12(13.2%), 6(6.6%) cases and >2 × ULN in 20(22%), 18(19.8%), 7(7.7%) and 2 (2.2%) cases respectively. Mean AST and ALP levels among different severity groups of COVID-19 was statistically significant (p < 0.05) whereas mean ALT and total bilirubin levels was statistically non-significant (p > 0.05). There was no statistical difference between males and females with regard to abnormal liver function. Liver injury was seen in 64.3% cases of hypertension and 73.3% cases of diabetes. Fever, myalgia, headache and breathlessness were found to be correlated significantly with severity of disease.ConclusionLiver injury is common in SARS-CoV-2 infection and is more prevalent in the severe disease group. Aspartate transaminase and alkaline phosphatase are better indicators of covid-19 induced liver injury than alanine transaminase and total bilirubin.     

Anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies in patients with COVID-19

Background and study aimAnti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA) have been described in many autoimmune diseases (AIDs). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could trigger AIDs. This study aimed to determine the frequency of ASCA in patients with COVID-19.Patients and methodsThis study included 88 adult patients with severe COVID-19, 51 mild COVID-19, and 160 healthy blood donors. ASCA of isotype immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgA were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.ResultsThe frequency of ASCA (IgG or IgA) was significantly higher in patients with severe COVID-19 (21.6 % vs 3.7 %, p < 10^?3) and in patients with mild COVID-19 than in the healthy controls (13.7 % vs 3.7 %, p = 0.03). ASCA-IgA was significantly more frequent in patients with severe COVID-19 than in healthy controls (15.9 % vs 0.6 %, p < 10^?3). ASCA-IgG was significantly more frequent in patients with mild COVID-19 than in healthy controls (13.7 % vs 3.1 %, p = 0.02). ASCA (IgG or IgA) were more frequent in severe than in mild COVID-19, but the difference was not statistically significant (21.6 % vs 13.7 %). ASCA-IgA was significantly more frequent in patients with severe than those with mild COVID-19 (15.9 % vs 0 %, p = 0.003). The mean ASCA-IgG and ASCA-IgA levels were significantly higher in patients with severe COVID-19 than in healthy controls (5.8 U/mL ± 11.8 vs 2.3 U/mL ± 2.8, p < 10^?3 and 9.2 U/mL ± 21.5 vs 3.4 U/mL ± 1.7, respectively, p < 10^?3). The mean ASCA-IgG levels were significantly higher in patients with mild COVID-19 than in healthy controls (6.2 U/mL ± 12.9 vs 2.3 U/mL ± 2.8, p < 10^?3). The mean ASCA-IgA levels were significantly higher in patients with severe than in those with mild COVID-19 (9.2 U/mL ± 21.5 vs 2.6 U/mL ± 1.2, p = 0.03).ConclusionASCA was more frequent in patients with COVID-19 than in healthy controls.     

Coronary artery calcifications and 6-month mortality in patients with COVID-19 without known atheromatous disease

Central illustration. Six-month mortality according to category of coronary artery calcium (CAC). The mortality rate increased with the magnitude of calcifications according to a visual scoring of CAC on chest computed tomography. CAC was associated with 6-month mortality, independent of conventional cardiovascular risk-factors, in patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 without known atheromatous disease. CI: confidence interval; HR: hazard ratio.

     

Patient-centered outcomes at hospital discharge in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients in Kobe,Japan: A single-center retrospective cohort study

BackgroundApart from saving the lives of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients on mechanical ventilation (MV), recovery from the sequelae of prolonged MV (PMV) is an emerging issue.cMethodsWe conducted a retrospective study among consecutive adult COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in Kobe, Japan, between March 3, 2020, and January 31, 2021, and received invasive MV. Clinical outcomes included in-hospital mortality and recovery from COVID-19 in survivors regarding organ dysfunction, respiratory symptoms, and functional status at discharge. We compared survivors’ outcomes with MV durations of >14 days and ≤14 days.ResultsWe included 85 patients with a median age of 69 years (interquartile range, 64–75 years); 76 (89%) patients had at least 1 comorbidity, 72 (85%) were non-frail, and 79 (93%) were functionally independent before COVID-19 infection. Eighteen patients (21%) died during hospitalization. At discharge, 59/67 survivors (88%) no longer required respiratory support, 50 (75%) complained of dyspnea, and 40 (60%) were functionally independent. Of the survivors, 23 patients receiving MV for >14 days had a worse recovery from COVID-19 at discharge compared with those on MV for ≤14 days, as observed using the Barthel index (median: 35 [5–65] vs. 100 [85–100]), ICU mobility scale (8 [5–9] vs. 10 [10-10]), and functional oral intake scale (3 [1–7] vs. 7 [7-7]) (P < 0.0001).ConclusionAlthough four-fifths of the patients survived and >50% of survivors demonstrated clinically important recovery in organ function and functional status during hospitalization, PMV was related to poor recovery from COVID-19 at discharge.     

The correlations among racial/ethnic groups,hypertriglyceridemia, thrombosis,and mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Reports of racial and ethnic disparities regarding both rates of infection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and morbidity of the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) contain profound differences depending on the population. Our previous study has shown that patients with COVID-19 who developed hypertriglyceridemia during hospitalization have a 2.3 times higher mortality rate. However, whether the correlation between hypertriglyceridemia and mortality has disparity among different racial and ethnic groups is unknown.In this study, we investigated the impact of race/ethnicity on the correlation between hypertriglyceridemia and mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. De-identified information from 904 hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 2020 and June 2021 were extracted from the Medical College of Wisconsin Clinical Data Warehouse. A multivariable regression analysis suggested that the Asians and non-White Hispanics had 4 or 3.9 times higher mortality rate, respectively, after adjusting for age, morbid obesity (BMI ≥40), and gender. The hypertriglyceridemia (≥150 mg/dL) was associated with higher mortality, after adjusting for age, gender, and morbid obesity. The baseline hypertriglyceridemia occurrence had relevantly more consistent percentages among all racial/ethnic groups. However, non-White Hispanic and Asian patients had the highest frequencies of peak hypertriglyceridemia occurrence during hospitalization. The peak hypertriglyceridemia developed during hospitalization correlates with the incidence of thrombosis after adjusting for morbid obesity, age, and sex. In summary, in this retrospective study of 904 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, Asians and non-White Hispanics had a greater likelihood of developing hypertriglyceridemia during hospitalization and mortality than White patients.     

A systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 and influenza patients on ECMO

BackgroundExtracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is a valuable rescue therapy to treat refractory hypoxemia caused by influenza. The present meta-analysis aimed to compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes of ECMO between COVID-19 and influenza.MethodsWe searched the PubMed, Cochrane Library, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases from inception to May 1, 2021. The included studies compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes of ECMO between adults with COVID-19 and those with influenza.ResultsThe study included four retrospective cohorts involving a total of 129 patients with COVID-19 and 140 with influenza who were treated using ECMO. Clinical characteristics were similar between the COVID-19 and influenza groups, including body mass index (BMI), diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and immunocompromised status. A higher proportion of patients with COVID-19 on ECMO were male (75.9% vs. 62.9%; P = 0.04). There was no difference between the groups in terms of illness severity based on sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score or serum pH. Patients with COVID-19 had a longer mean duration of mechanical ventilation before ECMO (6.63 vs. 3.38 days; P < 0.01). The pooled mortality rate was 43.8%. The mean ECMO duration (14.13 vs. 12.55 days; P = 0.25) and mortality rate (42.6% vs. 45.0%; P = 0.99) were comparable between the groups.ConclusionClinical characteristics, ECMO duration, and mortality were comparable between patients with COVID-19 and those with influenza who required ECMO to treat refractory hypoxemia. The duration of mechanical ventilation before ECMO did not influence outcomes. Patients with COVID-19 benefit from ECMO salvage therapy similarly to those with influenza.     

Differential white blood cell count in the COVID-19: A cross-sectional study of 148 patients

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 infection alters various blood parameters, which may indicate disease severity and thus help in better clinical management.AimTo study the association between various hematological parameters and disease severity of COVID-19. To analyze the effects of hypertension and diabetes on neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and neutrophil-monocyte ratio in patients suffering from COVID-19.Materials and methodsThe study was a cross-sectional study involving 148 laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The patients were divided into three groups on the basis of disease severity. Various hematological parameters were analyzed. The effects of hypertension and diabetes on NLR and NMR in COVID-19 patients were evaluated.ResultsOf the 148 patients, 78.4%, 8.1% and 13.5% cases were in the mild, moderate and severe groups, respectively. Mean age was 42.63 ± 16.04 years (IQR: 29, 54.75; Range: 7–74). 58.8% patients were male while the rest (42.2%) were female. Mean TLC (cells/mm³), neutrophil (%), lymphocyte (%), monocyte (%), eosinophil (%), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and neutrophil-monocyte ratio (NMR) among mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 was statistically significant (p < 0.05). Basophil (%) and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR) was statistically insignificant among the three groups. Lymphocyte (%), monocyte (%) and eosinophil (%) were negatively correlated to disease severity. Among diabetics, both NLR and NMR were statistically significant (p < 0.05). However, among hypertensive cases, only the NLR was statistically significant.ConclusionOlder age, higher TLC, neutrophilia, lymphopenia, eosinopenia, high NLR and high NMR are associated with severe COVID-19. High NLR and high NMR are indicative of severe disease among diabetic patients. High NLR also indicates severe disease among hypertensive patients.     

Trends in clinical features of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published from December 2019 to February 2020

BackgroundSince novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged, various clinical features of COVID-19 have been reported.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of published studies reporting the clinical features of COVID-19. Two investigators independently searched PubMed (December 2019–February 2020) for eligible articles. A meta-analysis was performed to measure the frequencies of clinical outcomes and symptoms of COVID-19. A stratified analysis was conducted according to the timeline of outbreak and exposure histories: Group I, most patients were exposed to the Hunan seafood wholesale market and lived in Wuhan, Hubei province; Group II, patients lived in Hubei province but were not directly exposed to the market; and Group III, patients lived outside Hubei.ResultsThirteen studies, all from China, were eligible. The estimated mortality rate among all studies was 2.12%, but that in Group I was 8.66%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome in Group I was 20.00%. Both fever and cough were major symptoms, and their frequencies were higher in Group I than in Groups II and III, while the frequency of diarrhea in Group I was lower than that in Group III. The estimated frequency of dyspnea in Group I was 37.18%, while those in Groups II and III were 16.95% and 7.03%, respectively.ConclusionsThe trends in the clinical features of COVID-19 changed from December 2019 to February 2020. During this observation period, as the infection continued to spread, the clinical conditions for majority of patients became less severe with the changes in the route of transmission.     

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels are associated with poor clinical outcomes in COVID-19

Background and aimsSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the sole causative agent of coronavirus infectious disease-19 (COVID-19).Methods and resultsWe performed a retrospective single-center study of consecutively admitted patients between March 1st and May 15th^, 2020, with a definitive diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary end-point was to evaluate the association of lipid markers with 30-days all-cause mortality in COVID-19.A total of 654 patients were enrolled, with an estimated 30-day mortality of 22.8% (149 patients). Non-survivors had lower total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) levels during the entire course of the disease. Both showed a significant inverse correlation with inflammatory markers and a positive correlation with lymphocyte count. In a multivariate analysis, LDL-c ≤ 69 mg/dl (hazard ratio [HR] 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–3.31), C-reactive protein >88 mg/dl (HR 2.44; 95% CI, 1.41–4.23) and lymphopenia <1000 (HR 2.68; 95% CI, 1.91–3.78) at admission were independently associated with 30-day mortality. This association was maintained 7 days after admission. Survivors presented with complete normalization of their lipid profiles on short-term follow-up.ConclusionHypolipidemia in SARS-CoV-2 infection may be secondary to an immune-inflammatory response, with complete recovery in survivors. Low LDL-c serum levels are independently associated with higher 30-day mortality in COVID-19 patients.