Decline of Tuberculosis Burden in Vietnam Measured by Consecutive National Surveys, 2007–2017

Vietnam, a high tuberculosis (TB) burden country, conducted national TB prevalence surveys in 2007 and 2017. In both surveys participants were screened by using a questionnaire and chest radiograph; sputum samples were then collected to test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis by smear microscopy and Löwenstein-Jensen culture. Culture-positive, smear-positive, and smear-negative TB cases were defined by laboratory results, and the prevalence of tuberculosis was compared between the 2 surveys. The results showed prevalence of culture-positive TB decreased by 37% (95% CI 11.5%–55.4%), from 199 (95% CI 160–248) cases/100,000 adults in 2007 to 125 (95% CI 98–159) cases/100,000 adults in 2017. Prevalence of smear-positive TB dropped by 53% (95% CI 27.0%–69.7%), from 99 (95% CI 78–125) cases/100,000 adults to 46 (95% CI 32–68) cases/100,000 adults; smear-negative TB showed no substantial decrease. Replacing microscopy with molecular methods for primary diagnostics might enhance diagnosis of pulmonary TB cases and further lower TB burden.     

Cross-sectional studies of tuberculosis prevalence in Cambodia between 2002 and 2011

Objective

To measure trends in the pulmonary tuberculosis burden between 2002 and 2011 and to assess the impact of the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short-course) strategy in Cambodia.

Methods

Cambodia’s first population-based nationwide tuberculosis survey, based on multistage cluster sampling, was conducted in 2002. The second tuberculosis survey, encompassing 62 clusters, followed in 2011. Participants aged 15 years or older were screened for active pulmonary tuberculosis with chest radiography and/or for tuberculosis symptoms. For diagnostic confirmation, sputum smear and culture were conducted on those whose screening results were positive.

Findings

Of the 40 423 eligible subjects, 37 417 (92.6%) participated in the survey; 103 smear-positive cases and 211 smear-negative, culture-positive cases were identified. The weighted prevalences of smear-positive tuberculosis and bacteriologically-positive tuberculosis were 271 (95% confidence interval, CI: 212–348) and 831 (95% CI: 707–977) per 100 000 population, respectively. Tuberculosis prevalence was higher in men than women and increased with age. A 38% decline in smear-positive tuberculosis (P = 0.0085) was observed with respect to the 2002 survey, after participants were matched by demographic and geographical characteristics. The prevalence of symptomatic, smear-positive tuberculosis decreased by 56% (P = 0.001), whereas the prevalence of asymptomatic, smear-positive tuberculosis decreased by only 7% (P = 0.7249).

Conclusion

The tuberculosis burden in Cambodia has declined significantly, most probably because of the decentralization of DOTS to health centres. To further reduce the tuberculosis burden in Cambodia, tuberculosis control should be strengthened and should focus on identifying cases without symptoms and in the middle-aged and elderly population.     

A prospective study of maternal,fetal and neonatal deaths in low- and middle-income countries

Objective

To quantify maternal, fetal and neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries, to identify when deaths occur and to identify relationships between maternal deaths and stillbirths and neonatal deaths.

Methods

A prospective study of pregnancy outcomes was performed in 106 communities at seven sites in Argentina, Guatemala, India, Kenya, Pakistan and Zambia. Pregnant women were enrolled and followed until six weeks postpartum.

Findings

Between 2010 and 2012, 214 070 of 220 235 enrolled women (97.2%) completed follow-up. The maternal mortality ratio was 168 per 100 000 live births, ranging from 69 per 100 000 in Argentina to 316 per 100 000 in Pakistan. Overall, 29% (98/336) of maternal deaths occurred around the time of delivery: most were attributed to haemorrhage (86/336), pre-eclampsia or eclampsia (55/336) or sepsis (39/336). Around 70% (4349/6213) of stillbirths were probably intrapartum; 34% (1804/5230) of neonates died on the day of delivery and 14% (755/5230) died the day after. Stillbirths were more common in women who died than in those alive six weeks postpartum (risk ratio, RR: 9.48; 95% confidence interval, CI: 7.97–11.27), as were perinatal deaths (RR: 4.30; 95% CI: 3.26–5.67) and 7-day (RR: 3.94; 95% CI: 2.74–5.65) and 28-day neonatal deaths (RR: 7.36; 95% CI: 5.54–9.77).

Conclusion

Most maternal, fetal and neonatal deaths occurred at or around delivery and were attributed to preventable causes. Maternal death increased the risk of perinatal and neonatal death. Improving obstetric and neonatal care around the time of birth offers the greatest chance of reducing mortality.     

Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy: an observational cohort study in China

Objective

To assess if cotrimoxazole prophylaxis administered early during antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in Chinese adults who are infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Methods

We did a retrospective observational cohort study using data from the Chinese national free antiretroviral database. Patients older than 14 years who started ART between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2012 and had baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) count less than 200 cells/µL were followed until death, loss to follow-up or 31 December 2013. Hazard ratios (HRs) for several variables were calculated using multivariate analyses.

Findings

The analysis involved 23 816 HIV-infected patients, 2706 of whom died during the follow-up. Mortality in patients who did and did not start cotrimoxazole during the first 6 months of ART was 5.3 and 7.0 per 100 person–years, respectively. Cotrimoxazole was associated with a 37% reduction in mortality (hazard ratio, HR: 0.63; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.56–0.70). Cotrimoxazole in addition to ART reduced mortality significantly over follow-up lasting 6 months (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59–0.73), 12 months (HR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.49–0.70), 18 months (HR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.38–0.63) and 24 months (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.48–0.90). The mortality reduction was evident in patients with baseline CD4+ cell counts less than 50 cells/µL (HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.54–0.67), 50–99 cells/µL (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.56–0.78) and 100–199 cells/µL (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.62–0.98).

Conclusion

Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis started early during ART reduced mortality and should be offered to HIV-infected patients in low- and middle-income countries.     

Socioeconomic position and consumption of sugary drinks,sugar-sweetened beverages and 100% juice among Canadians: a cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey–Nutrition

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to describe sugary drink (beverages with free sugars), sugar-sweetened beverage (beverages with added sugars, SSB) and 100% juice (beverages with natural sugars) consumption across socioeconomic position (SEP) among Canadians.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 19,742 respondents of single-day 24-h dietary recalls in the nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey–Nutrition. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the prevalence of consuming each beverage type on a given day. Among consumers on a given day, linear regressions were used to estimate mean energy intake. Models included household education, food security and income quintiles as separate unadjusted exposures. Sex-specific models were estimated separately for children/adolescents (2–18 years) and adults (19 +).ResultsAmong female children/adolescents, the prevalence of consuming sugary drinks and, separately, SSB ranged from 11 to 21 and 8 to 27 percentage-points higher among lower education compared to ‘Bachelor degree or above’ households. In female adults, the prevalence of consuming sugary drinks and, separately, SSB was 10 (95% CI: 1, 19) and 14 (95% CI: 2, 27) percentage-points higher in food insecure compared to secure households. In males, the prevalence of consuming 100% juice was 9 (95% CI: − 18, 0) percentage-points lower among food insecure compared to secure households. Social inequities in energy intake were observed in female adult consumers, among whom mean energy from sugary drinks was 27 kcal (95% CI: 3, 51) higher among food insecure compared to secure and 35 kcal (95% CI: 2, 67) higher from 100% juice among ‘less than high school’ education compared to ‘Bachelor degree or above’ households.ConclusionSocial inequities in sugary drink consumption exist in Canada. The associations differed by SEP indicator. Equitable interventions to reduce consumption are warranted.     

Higher mortality rates associated with rheumatoid arthritis in Saskatchewan,Canada, 2001–2019

ObjectivesTo estimate provincial all-cause mortality rates of Saskatchewan people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) for comparison with the general population over time and between different geographic regions.MethodsSaskatchewan provincial administrative health databases (2001–2019) were utilized as data sources. Two RA case definitions were employed: (1) ≥ 3 physician billing diagnoses, at least 1 from a specialist (rheumatologist, general internist or orthopaedic surgeon) within 2 years; (2) ≥ 1 hospitalization diagnosis (ICD-9 code 714, and ICD-10-CA codes M05, M06). Data from these definitions were combined to create an administrative data RA cohort. All-cause mortality rates across geographic regions, between rural/urban residences and between sexes were examined.ResultsOver an 18-year span, between fiscal-year 2001–2002 and fiscal-year 2018–2019, age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates ranged from 17.10 to 21.04 (95% CI 14.77, 19.44; 18.03, 24.05)/1000 RA person-years, compared with mortality rates for the general Saskatchewan population without RA, which ranged from 9.37 to 10.88 (95% CI 9.23, 9.51; 10.72, 11.05)/1000 person-years. Fiscal-year mortality rate ratios ranged from 1.82 to 2.13 (95% CI 1.56, 2.13; 1.83, 2.46). Provincial mortality rates were higher in men than in women for both general and RA populations. Northern Saskatchewan mortality rates were significantly higher in the general population but did not achieve significance compared with other provincial regions for the RA population. Regression analysis identified age, male sex, RA and geographic region as factors contributing to increased mortality. A trend towards lower mortality rates over time was observed.ConclusionHigher mortality rates were observed in the RA population overall. Men had higher mortality rates, as did residents of Northern Saskatchewan compared with residents of other regions for the general population.     

Survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest,Viet Nam: multicentre prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo investigate factors associated with survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Viet Nam.MethodsWe did a multicentre prospective observational study of people (> 18 years) presenting with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (not caused by trauma) to three tertiary hospitals in Viet Nam from February 2014 to December 2018. We collected data on characteristics, management and outcomes of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and compared these data by type of transportation to hospital and survival to hospital admission. We assessed factors associated with survival to admission to and discharge from hospital using logistic regression analysis.FindingsOf 590 eligible people with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, 440 (74.6%) were male and the mean age was 56.1 years (standard deviation: 17.2). Only 24.2% (143/590) of these people survived to hospital admission and 14.1% (83/590) survived to hospital discharge. Most cardiac arrests (67.8%; 400/590) occurred at home, 79.4% (444/559) were witnessed by bystanders and 22.3% (124/555) were given cardiopulmonary resuscitation by a bystander. Only 8.6% (51/590) of the people were taken to hospital by the emergency medical services and 32.2% (49/152) received pre-hospital defibrillation. Pre-hospital defibrillation (odds ratio, OR: 3.90; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.54–9.90) and return of spontaneous circulation in the emergency department (OR: 2.89; 95% CI: 1.03–8.12) were associated with survival to hospital admission. Hypothermia therapy during post-resuscitation care was associated with survival to discharge (OR: 5.44; 95% CI: 2.33–12.74).ConclusionImprovements are needed in the emergency medical services in Viet Nam such as increasing bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and public access defibrillation, and improving ambulance and post-resuscitation care.     

Post-tuberculosis mortality risk among immigrants to British Columbia,Canada, 1985–2015: a time-dependent Cox regression analysis of linked immigration,public health,and vital statistics data

ObjectiveTo compare non-tuberculosis (non-TB)-cause mortality risk overall and cause-specific mortality risks within the immigrant population of British Columbia (BC) with and without TB diagnosis through time-dependent Cox regressions.MethodsAll people immigrating to BC during 1985–2015 (N = 1,030,873) were included with n = 2435 TB patients, and the remaining as non-TB controls. Outcomes were time-to-mortality for all non-TB causes, respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and injuries/poisonings, and were ascertained using ICD-coded vital statistics data. Cox regressions were used, with a time-varying exposure variable for TB diagnosis.ResultsThe non-TB-cause mortality hazard ratio (HR) was 4.01 (95% CI 3.57–4.51) with covariate-adjusted HR of 1.69 (95% CI 1.50–1.91). Cause-specific covariate-adjusted mortality risk was elevated for respiratory diseases (aHR = 2.96; 95% CI 2.18–4.00), cardiovascular diseases (aHR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.32–2.02), cancers (aHR = 1.40; 95% CI 1.13–1.75), and injuries/poisonings (aHR = 1.85; 95% CI 1.25–2.72).ConclusionsIn any given year, if an immigrant to BC was diagnosed with TB, their risk of non-TB mortality was 69% higher than if they were not diagnosed with TB. Healthcare providers should consider multiple potential threats to the long-term health of TB patients during and after TB treatment. TB guidelines in high-income settings should address TB survivor health.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.17269/s41997-020-00345-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The epidemiology of child homicides in South Africa

Objective

To describe age- and sex-specific rates of child homicide in South Africa.

Methods

A cross-sectional mortuary-based study was conducted in a national sample of 38 medicolegal laboratories operating in 2009. These were sampled in inverse proportion to the number that were operational in each of three strata defined by autopsy volume: < 500, 500–1499 or > 1499 annual autopsies. Child homicide data were collected from mortuary files, autopsy reports and police interviews. Cause of death, evidence of abuse and neglect or of sexual assault, perpetrator characteristics and circumstances surrounding the death were investigated.

Findings

An estimated 1018 (95% confidence interval, CI: 843–1187) child homicides occurred in 2009, for a rate of 5.5 (95% CI: 4.6–6.4) homicides per 100 000 children younger than 18 years. The homicide rate was much higher in boys (6.9 per 100 000; 95% CI: 5.6–8.3) than in girls (3.9 per 100 000; 95% CI: 3.2–4.7). Child abuse and neglect had preceded nearly half (44.5%) of all homicides, but three times more often among girls than among boys. In children aged 15 to 17 years, the homicide rate among boys (21.7 per 100 000; 95% CI: 14.2–29.2) was nearly five times higher than the homicide rate among girls (4.6 per 100 000; 95% CI: 2.4–6.8).

Conclusion

South Africa’s child homicide rate is more than twice the global estimate. Since a background of child abuse and neglect is common, improvement of parenting skills should be part of primary prevention efforts.     

Interrupted time-series analysis of active case-finding for tuberculosis during the COVID-19 pandemic,Zambia

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the subsequent implementation of tuberculosis response measures on tuberculosis notifications in Zambia.MethodsWe used an interrupted time-series design to compare monthly tuberculosis notifications in Zambia before the pandemic (January 2019 to February 2020), after implementation of national pandemic mitigation measures (April 2020 to June 2020) and after response measures to improve tuberculosis detection (August 2020 to September 2021). The tuberculosis response included enhanced data surveillance, facility-based active case-finding and activities to generate demand for services. We used nationally aggregated, facility-level tuberculosis notification data for the analysis.FindingsPre-pandemic tuberculosis case notifications rose steadily from 2890 in January 2019 to 3337 in February 2020. After the start of the pandemic and mitigation measures, there was a −22% (95% confidence interval, CI: −24 to −19) immediate decline in notifications in April 2020. Larger immediate declines in notifications were seen among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive compared with HIV-negative individuals (−36%; 95% CI: −38 to −35; versus −12%; 95% CI: −17 to −6). Following roll-out of tuberculosis response measures in July 2020, notifications immediately increased by 45% (95% CI: 38 to 51) nationally and across all subgroups and provinces. The trend in notifications remained stable through September 2021, with similar numbers to the predicted number had the pandemic not occurred.ConclusionImplementation of a coordinated public health response including active tuberculosis case-finding was associated with reversal of the adverse impact of the pandemic and mitigation measures. The gains were sustained throughout subsequent waves of the pandemic.     

Prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and chronic bronchitis in eight countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectiveTo estimate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic bronchitis in eight countries in South Asia through a systematic review and meta-analysis.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE® Complete, Web of Science, Embase®, Scopus, CINAHL and reference lists of screened studies for research on the prevalence of COPD and chronic bronchitis in South Asian countries published between January 1990 and February 2021. We used standardized diagnostic criteria for definitions of COPD and chronic bronchitis. Two reviewers undertook study screening, full-text review, quality appraisal and data extraction.FindingsOf 1529 studies retrieved, 43 met the inclusion criteria: 32 provided data from India; four from Bangladesh; three from Nepal; two from Pakistan; and two from both India and Sri Lanka. Twenty-six studies used standardized diagnostic definitions and 19 were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated pooled prevalence of COPD was 11.1% (95% confidence interval, CI: 7.4–14.8%), using the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease fixed criteria and 8.0% (95% CI: 5.6–10.4%) using the lower limit of normal criteria. The prevalence of COPD was highest in north India (19.4%) and Bangladesh (13.5%) and in men. The estimated pooled prevalence of chronic bronchitis was 5.0% (95% CI: 4.1–6.0%) in India and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.1–4.0%) in Pakistan.ConclusionIncluded countries have a high prevalence of COPD although it varied by geographical area and study characteristics. Future research in South Asia should use standardized diagnostic criteria to examine the contribution of setting-specific risk factors to inform prevention and control strategies.     

COVID-19 cases,hospitalizations and deaths after vaccination: a cohort event monitoring study,Islamic Republic of Iran

ObjectiveTo investigate the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Iranians vaccinated with either AZD1222 Vaxzevria, CovIran® vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell), Inactivated (lnCoV) or Sputnik V.MethodsWe enrolled individuals 18 years or older receiving their first COVID-19 vaccine dose between April 2021 and January 2022 in seven Iranian cities. Participants completed weekly follow-up surveys for 17 weeks (25 weeks for AZD1222) to report their COVID-19 status and hospitalization. We used Cox regression models to assess risk factors for contracting COVID-19, hospitalization and death.FindingsOf 89 783 participants enrolled, incidence rates per 1 000 000 person-days were: 528.2 (95% confidence interval, CI: 514.0–542.7) for contracting COVID-19; 55.8 (95% CI: 51.4–60.5) for hospitalization; and 4.1 (95% CI: 3.0–5.5) for death. Compared with SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell), hazard ratios (HR) for contracting COVID-19 were: 0.70 (95% CI: 0.61−0.80) with AZD1222; 0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–0.86) with Sputnik V; and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.63–0.86) with CovIran®. For hospitalization and death, all vaccines provided similar protection 14 days after the second dose. History of COVID-19 protected against contracting COVID-19 again (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.69–0.84). Diabetes and respiratory, cardiac and renal disease were associated with higher risks of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination.ConclusionThe rates of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination were relatively high. SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell) provided lower protection against COVID-19 than other vaccines. People with comorbidities had higher risks of contracting COVID-19 and hospitalization and should be prioritized for preventive interventions.     

A multimedia consent tool for research participants in the Gambia: a randomized controlled trial

ObjectiveTo assess the effectiveness of a multimedia informed consent tool for adults participating in a clinical trial in the Gambia.MethodsAdults eligible for inclusion in a malaria treatment trial (n = 311) were randomized to receive information needed for informed consent using either a multimedia tool (intervention arm) or a standard procedure (control arm). A computerized, audio questionnaire was used to assess participants’ comprehension of informed consent. This was done immediately after consent had been obtained (at day 0) and at subsequent follow-up visits (days 7, 14, 21 and 28). The acceptability and ease of use of the multimedia tool were assessed in focus groups.FindingsOn day 0, the median comprehension score in the intervention arm was 64% compared with 40% in the control arm (P = 0.042). The difference remained significant at all follow-up visits. Poorer comprehension was independently associated with female sex (odds ratio, OR: 0.29; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.12–0.70) and residing in Jahaly rather than Basse province (OR: 0.33; 95% CI: 0.13–0.82). There was no significant independent association with educational level. The risk that a participant’s comprehension score would drop to half of the initial value was lower in the intervention arm (hazard ratio 0.22, 95% CI: 0.16–0.31). Overall, 70% (42/60) of focus group participants from the intervention arm found the multimedia tool clear and easy to understand.ConclusionA multimedia informed consent tool significantly improved comprehension and retention of consent information by research participants with low levels of literacy.     

Delay in childhood vaccinations during the COVID-19 pandemic

ObjectivesIn many jurisdictions, routine medical care was reduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study was to determine whether the frequency of on-time routine childhood vaccinations among children age 0–2 years was lower following the COVID-19 declaration of emergency in Ontario, Canada, on March 17, 2020, compared to prior to the pandemic.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal cohort study of healthy children aged 0–2 years participating in the TARGet Kids! primary care research network in Toronto, Canada. A logistic mixed effects regression model was used to determine odds ratios (ORs) for delayed vaccination (> 30 days vs. ≤ 30 days from the recommended date) before and after the COVID-19 declaration of emergency, adjusted for confounding variables. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore the relationship between the declaration of emergency and time to vaccination.ResultsAmong 1277 children, the proportion of on-time vaccinations was 81.8% prior to the COVID-19 declaration of emergency and 62.1% after (p < 0.001). The odds of delayed vaccination increased (odds ratio = 3.77, 95% CI: 2.86–4.96), and the hazard of administration of recommended vaccinations decreased after the declaration of emergency (hazard ratio = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.60–0.92). The median vaccination delay time was 5 days (95% CI: 4–5 days) prior to the declaration of emergency and 17 days (95% CI: 12–22 days) after.ConclusionThe frequency of on-time routine childhood vaccinations was lower during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustained delays in routine vaccinations may lead to an increase in rates of vaccine-preventable diseases.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.17269/s41997-021-00601-9.     

Consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with obesity,diabetes and hypertension in Canadian adults

ObjectiveTo assess the association between consumption of ultra-processed foods and obesity, diabetes, hypertension and heart disease in a nationally representative sample of Canadian adults.MethodsThis study used cross-sectional data from 13,608 adults (aged 19+ years) from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey–Nutrition. The survey provided data on food consumption (from 24-h recall) and prevalent obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) and self-reported diabetes, hypertension and heart disease. All foods and drinks consumed were classified according to the extent and purpose of industrial processing using the NOVA classification. Ultra-processed food consumption was estimated as proportion of total daily energy intake. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association between ultra-processed food consumption and obesity, diabetes, hypertension and heart disease, adjusting for a range of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors.ResultsIn 2015, ultra-processed food contributed, on average, to 24% of total daily energy intake in the lowest tertile of ultra-processed food consumption and 73% in the highest tertile. Compared with those in the lowest tertile, adults in the highest tertile of ultra-processed food consumption had 31% higher odds of obesity (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.06–1.60), 37% higher odds of diabetes (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.01–1.85) and 60% higher odds of hypertension (OR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.26–2.03), adjusting for a range of covariates.ConclusionHigher consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with higher prevalence of obesity, diabetes and hypertension among Canadian adults. A comprehensive set of strategies and policies is needed to discourage consumption of ultra-processed foods in Canada and to make unprocessed or minimally processed foods more affordable, available and appealing.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.17269/s41997-020-00429-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Gang truce for violence prevention,El Salvador

ObjectiveTo estimate the effects on homicide rates of the gang truce that was brokered in El Salvador in 2012.MethodsMathematical models based on municipal-level census, crime and gang-intelligence data were used to estimate the effect of the truce on homicide rates. One model estimated the overall effect after accounting for the linear trend and seasonality in the homicide rate. In a moderated-effect model, we investigated the relationship between the truce effect and the numbers of MS13 (Mara Salvatrucha 13) and Eighteenth-Street gang members imprisoned per 100 000 population. We then ran each of these two models with additional control variables. We compared values before the truce – 1 January 2010 to 29 February 2012 – with those after the truce – 1 March 2012 to 31 December 2013.FindingsThe overall-effect models with and without additional control variables indicated a homicide rate after the truce that was significantly lower than the value before the truce, giving rate ratios of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.49–0.63) and 0.61 (95% CI: 0.54–0.69), respectively. For any given municipality, the effectiveness of the truce appeared to increase as the number of MS13 gang members imprisoned per 100 000 population increased. We did not observe the same significant relationship for imprisoned Eighteenth-Street gang members.ConclusionIn the 22 months following the establishment of a national gang truce, the homicide rate was about 40% lower than in the preceding 26 months. The truce’s impact appeared particularly strong in municipalities with relatively high numbers of imprisoned MS13 gang members per 100 000 population.     

Prevalence of smear-positive tuberculosis in persons aged ≥ 15 years in Bangladesh: results from a national survey, 2007-2009

The aim of this study was to determine the nationwide prevalence of smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) in Bangladesh. A multi-stage cluster survey of a random sample of persons aged ≥ 15 years was included in 40 clusters (20 urban, 20 rural). Two sputum samples were collected from study participants and tested initially by fluorescence microscopy and confirmed by the Ziehl-Neelsen method. The crude and adjusted prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using standard methods. A total of 33 new smear-positive TB cases were detected among 52 098 individuals who participated in the study. The average participation rate was over 80%. The overall crude prevalence of new smear-positive TB in persons aged ≥ 15 years was estimated as 63.3/100 000 (95% CI 43.6-88.9) and the adjusted prevalence was 79.4/100 000 (95% CI 47.1-133.8). TB prevalence was higher in males (n = 24) and in rural areas (n = 20). The prevalence was highest in the 55-64 years age group (201/100 000) and lowest in 15-24 years age group (43.0/100 000). The prevalence was higher in persons with no education (138.6/100 000, 95% CI 78.4-245.0). The overall prevalence of smear-positive TB was significantly lower than the prevalence estimate of the previous nationwide survey in Bangladesh in 1987-1988 (870/100 000).     

Diarrhoea-related hospitalizations in children before and after implementation of monovalent rotavirus vaccination in Mexico

Objective

To assess, by socioeconomic setting, the effect of nationwide vaccination against species A rotavirus (RVA) on childhood diarrhoea-related hospitalizations in Mexico.

Methods

Data on children younger than 5 years who were hospitalized for diarrhoea in health ministry hospitals between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2011 were collected from monthly discharge reports. Human development indexes were used to categorize the states where hospitals were located as having generally high, intermediate or low socioeconomic status. Annual rates of hospitalization for diarrhoea – per 10 000 hospitalizations for any cause – were calculated. Administrative data were used to estimate vaccine coverage.

Findings

In the states with high, intermediate and low socioeconomic status, coverage with a two-dose monovalent RVA vaccine – among children younger than 5 years – had reached 93%, 86% and 71%, respectively, by 2010. The corresponding median annual rates of hospitalization for diarrhoea – per 10 000 admissions – fell from 1001, 834 and 1033 in the “prevaccine” period of 2003–2006, to 597, 497 and 705 in the “postvaccine” period from 2008 to 2011, respectively. These decreases correspond to rate reductions of 40% (95% confidence interval, CI: 38–43), 41% (95% CI: 38–43) and 32% (95% CI: 29–34), respectively. Nationwide, RVA vaccination appeared to have averted approximately 16 500 hospitalizations for childhood diarrhoea in each year of the postvaccine period.

Conclusion

Monovalent RVA vaccination has substantially reduced childhood diarrhoea-related hospitalizations for four continuous years in discretely different socioeconomic populations across Mexico.     

Tuberculosis control and economic recession: longitudinal study of data from 21 European countries, 1991–2012

Objective

To investigate whether the economic recession affected the control of tuberculosis in the European Union.

Methods

Multivariate regression models were used to quantify the association between gross domestic product, public health expenditure and tuberculosis case detection rates, using data from 21 European Union member states (1991–2012). The estimated changes in case detection attributable to the recession were combined with mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission, to project the potential influence of the recession on tuberculosis epidemiology until 2030.

Findings

Between 1991 and 2007, detection rates for sputum-smear-positive tuberculosis in the European Union were stable at approximately 85%. During the economic recession (2008–2011) detection rates declined by a mean of 5.22% (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.54–7.90) but treatment success rates showed no significant change (P = 0.62). A fall in economic output of 100 United States dollars per capita was associated with a 0.22% (95% CI: 0.05–0.39) mean reduction in the tuberculosis case detection rate. An equivalent fall in spending on public health services was associated with a 2.74% (95% CI: 0.31–5.16) mean reduction in the detection rate. Mathematical models suggest that the recession and consequent austerity policies will lead to increases in tuberculosis prevalence and tuberculosis-attributable mortality that are projected to persist for over a decade.

Conclusion

Across the European Union, reductions in spending on public health services appear to have reduced tuberculosis case detection and to have increased the long-term risk of a resurgence in the disease.