脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型指数曲线y=10a+bx的模拟

脑血管病的死亡率具有随年龄的增长而升高的趋势。我们采用指数曲线y=10^a+bx,对几个人群的资料进行了数学模拟,建立了一个脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型。这一模型可以表明脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的规律。用指数曲线方程y=10^a+bx的微分方程dy/dx=In10b10^a+bx可以计算出各年龄组当年龄增长1岁时脑血管病死亡率的增量。进而,可以计算出这种增量随年龄组增长而增长的“增长倍数常数”。这种常数可以用作比较不同人群脑血管病危害程度和年龄分布规律的新的指标。此外,该模型可用于预测人群中脑血管病的死亡率和死亡数。     

脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型

本文采用指数曲线y=10~(a bx),对国内几个不同类型地区和性别人群的脑血管病死亡率资料进行了数学模拟,建立了脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型,这一模型表明了脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的规律,可以预测人群中脑血管病的死亡率和死亡数。用指数曲线方程y=10~(a bx)的微分方程xy/dx=(1n 10)·b·10~(a bx)可以计算出各年龄组当年龄增长1岁时脑血管病死亡率的增量。进而,可计算出这种增量随年龄组增长而增长的“增长倍数常数”。这两种指标均可作为比较不同人群脑血管病的危害程度.     

莱芜市农村居民脑血管病死亡率年龄分布指数曲线拟合

本文利用指数曲线方程y=ae~(bx),对莱芜市疾病监测点农村居民脑血管病年龄别死亡率进行了模拟,旨在了解脑血管病年龄死亡率的分布特点,现报告如下。     

恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的数学模型

恶性肿瘤死亡率有随年龄增长而升高的趋势,为了探讨这种趋势的规律性,我们采用指数曲线y=10^a+bx对山东省疾病监测点恶性肿瘤死亡资料进行数学模拟建立了恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的数学模型,并用全国资料进行了验证,以观察这种模型的普遍意义。该模型不仅可从理论上阐明一个人群恶性肿瘤死亡率年龄分布的规律,为恶性肿瘤死亡预测提供一种初步方法,还可用指数曲线方程y=10^a+bx的微分方程计算出各年龄组每增长一岁时恶性肿瘤死亡率的增量,由该模型尚可推导出一个人群恶性肿瘤死亡率随年龄增长的"增长倍敛常数",该常数可以用作比较不同人群或同一人群不同时期恶性肿瘤死亡率受年龄影响程度的指标,为恶性肿瘤病因研究提供线索。     

四川省居民2002-2010年心脑血管疾病死亡分析

目的了解四川省居民心脑血管疾病的死亡特点及变化趋势。方法收集四川省全人群死因监测地区2002—2010年居民心脑血管疾病的死亡资料,对心脑血管疾病的死因构成、死亡率变化特点、城乡、性别、年龄分布进行描述性分析。结果心脑血管疾病是四川省居民的首要死因,在全省心脑血管疾病死亡当中,以脑血管病为主,占心脑血管疾病总死亡的59．46％。2002—2010年,四川省居民心脑血管疾病死亡率呈波动性上升,脑血管病标化死亡率高于心脏病,但心脏病标化死亡率的上升幅度和速度均大于脑血管病。城市居民心脏病的死亡率高于农村居民,差异有统计学意义（χ2=380．879,P〈0．01）,但脑血管病的死亡率低于农村居民,差异亦有统计学意义（χ2=6817．804,P〈0．01）。男性心脏病和脑血管病的死亡率均高于女性,差异有统计学意义（χ2=96．230,P〈0．01;χ2=1613．255,P〈0．01）。心脑血管病的死亡率随年龄的增长而增加,从55～岁年龄组开始明显升高。结论四川省居民心脑血管疾病死亡率呈上升趋势,心脏病和脑血管病死亡率的变化特点、城乡分布、性别分布存在差异,55岁以上为心脑血管疾病死亡高危年龄段。     

1990—1999年徐州市区居民脑血管病死亡分析

目的 了解徐州市区居民脑血管病死亡状况及其危害程度。方法 对1990－1999年徐州市居民脑血管死亡资料进行分析；计算潜在寿命损失年（YPLL）。结果 城区居民脑血管病的平均死亡年龄为71．27a，其中男性69．80a，女性73．42a。10年来，脑血管病死亡率变化不明显，死亡率随年龄的增长而增加，居全死因顺位的前3位。脑血管病死亡率为88．53／10万，标志死亡率为77．64／10万，其中男女死亡率分别为94．18／10万和81．93／10万，男女粗死亡率差异有显性（x^2=40．07，P＜0．01），男性明显高于女性。结论 应加强脑血管病的防治。     

江岸区1996年脑血管疾病死亡监测资料分析

脑血管病在我区死因顺位上一直处于主要位置,1996年本死因1430例占全死因326%,居我区死亡原因之首位。现将江岸区1996年脑血管病死亡资料分析报告如下。资料来源　(1)江岸区1996年经卫生防疫站审核开具的死亡医学证明书与公安局户政管理部门核对后的人口死亡年报资料。(2)资料整理与分析　①脑血管病死亡性别和年龄分布:1996年我区人口粗死亡率7521/10万,其中男性死亡率79503/10万,女性死亡率70803/10万,死亡性别比112。脑血管病死亡率24498/10万,其中男性死亡率24639/10万,女性死亡率24352/10万,性别比101。脑血管病死亡年龄主要在60岁至85…     

2016—2022年南充市脑血管病死亡趋势分析

目的 了解南充市2016—2022年居民脑血管病死亡趋势，为进一步完善南充市脑血管病防控策略提供科学依据。方法 脑血管病的死亡个案资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的《人口死亡信息登记管理系统》，采用2010年全国人口普查数据进行标化，采用死亡率、标化死亡率、平均减寿年数(average years of life lost,ALLY)、减寿率(potential years of life lost rate,PYLLR)和年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)对死亡资料进行趋势分析，检验水准α=0.05。结果 2016—2022年南充市居民脑血管病累计报告死亡病例75 428例，占总死亡人数的23.35%(75 428/323 052)，死亡率和标化死亡率分别为148.68/10万和86.43/10万，均呈上升趋势，APC分别为8.538%和3.548%(P<0.05)。男性脑血管病死亡率157.05/10万，高于女性的139.53/10万(χ²=261.730,P<0.05)。随着年龄的增长，脑血管病死亡率呈上...     

1996—2021年上海市闵行区脑血管病疾病负担变化趋势分析

目的分析1996—2021年上海市闵行区脑血管病疾病负担变化趋势,为政府部门针对性制定脑血管病防控策略提供科学依据。方法运用死亡率、早死相关的损失生命年（YLL）、伤残损失健康生命年（YLD）和伤残调整生命年（DALY）等指标评价闵行区脑血管病疾病负担,运用Joinpoint线性回归法分析疾病负担变化趋势,计算不同年份的年度变化百分比（APC）。结果1996—2021年闵行区脑血管病YLL率总体呈下降趋势（全人群:APC=-1.69%,t=-6.9,P<0.05）,脑血管病YLD率呈缓慢上升趋势（全人群:APC=1.17%, t=3.5,P<0.05）,脑血管病DALY率总体呈下降趋势,2003年起有所波动（全人群:APC=-1.43%,t=-5.6,P<0.05）。男性YLL率高于女性,女性YLD率高于男性,2014年后男性DALY率高于女性。随着年龄增长,脑血管病疾病负担上升,70岁以后疾病负担大幅上升。结论闵行区脑血管病疾病负担处于较高水平,年龄、性别等存在差异,需进一步完善脑血管病筛查、干预和康复措施,减少因脑血管病导致的残疾和过早死亡,降低脑血管病对个人、家庭及社会造成的负担。     

1990～1999年徐州市区居民脑血管病死亡分析

目的　了解徐州市区居民脑血管病死亡状况及其危害程度。方法　对 1990～ 1999年徐州市区居民脑血管病死亡资料进行分析 ;计算潜在寿命损失年 (YPL L )。结果　城区居民脑血管病的平均死亡年龄为 71.2 7a,其中男性 6 9.80 a,女性 73.42 a。 10年来 ,脑血管病死亡率变化不明显 ,死亡率随年龄的增长而增加 ,居全死因顺位的前 3位。脑血管病死亡率为 88.5 3/ 10万 ,标化死亡率为 77.6 4/ 10万 ,其中男女死亡率分别为 94.18/ 10万和 81.93/ 10万 ,男女粗死亡率差异有显著性 (χ2 =40 .0 7,P <0 .0 1) ,男性明显高于女性。结论　应加强脑血管病的防治。     

应用指数曲线预测伤寒副伤寒疫情

[目的]分析松江区1997~2004年伤寒、副伤寒历史疫情资料,建立外推预测模型对其疫情进行定量预测。[方法]对伤寒、副伤寒发病率时间序列(1997~2003)采用指数曲线拟合,并对2004年伤寒、副伤寒疫情作出预测。[结果]指数曲线预测方程为y^=e2.110600-0.300914X;|t|>t0.05,P<0.05,预测方程有意义;R2(判定系数)接近于1,表明预测误差较小;经拟合优度检验∑2χ<20.χ95(6),P>0.95,表明伤寒、副伤寒实际发病率与预测发病率间差异无显著性(包括对2004年发病率预测值检验)。[结论]对发病率时间序例呈单调下降且影响发病的主要因素保持稳定的一类传染病,采用指数曲线拟合进行疫情预测,具有可行性与可操作性,在实际工作中值得应用。     

Tuberculosis in the twentieth century: time-series mortality in S?o Paulo, Brazil, 1900-97.

The objective of this study was to characterize tuberculosis mortality trends in the Municipality of S?o Paulo, Brazil, from 1900 to 1997. Standardized tuberculosis mortality rates and proportional mortality ratios were calculated and stratified by gender and age group based on data provided by government agencies. These measures were submitted to time-series analysis. We verified distinct trends: high mortality and a stationary trend from 1900 to 1945, a heavy reduction in mortality (7.41% per year) from 1945 to 1985, and a resumption of increased mortality (4.08% per year) from 1985 to 1995. In 1996 and 1997 we observed a drop in tuberculosis mortality rates, which may be indicating a new downward trend for the disease. The period from 1945 to 1985 witnessed a real reduction in tuberculosis, brought about by social improvements, the introduction of therapeutic resources, and expansion of health services. Recrudescence of tuberculosis mortality from 1985 to 1995 may reflect the increasing prevalence of Mycobacterium and HIV co-infection, besides loss of quality in specific health programs.     

Surveillance for injuries and violence among older adults.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: Injuries and violence are major causes of disability and death among adults aged > or =65 years in the United States. Injuries impair older adults' quality of life and result in billions of dollars in health-care expenditures each year. REPORTING PERIOD: This report reviews 1987-1996 data regarding fall-related deaths, 1988-1996 data on hospitalizations for hip fracture, 1990-1997 data regarding motor vehicle-related injuries, 1990-1996 data on suicides, and 1987-1996 data on homicides. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEMS: Data on fall-related deaths, suicides, and homicides are from the National Center for Health Statistics annual mortality data tapes for 1987-1996. Homicide data are supplemented with information from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Supplemental Homicide Reports for 1987-1996. Data on hospitalizations for hip fracture are from the 1988-1996 National Hospital Discharge Surveys. Information regarding motor vehicle-related injuries for 1990-1997 is from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's Fatality Analysis Reporting System and General Estimates System. RESULTS: Rates of fall-related deaths for older adults increased sharply with advancing age and were consistently higher among men in all age categories. Men were 22% more likely than women to sustain fatal falls. A trend of increasing rates of fall-related deaths was observed from 1987 through 1996 in the United States, although rates were consistently lower for women throughout this period. Rates of hospitalizations for hip fracture differed by age and were higher for white women than for other groups. Rates increased with advancing age for both sexes but were consistently higher for women in all age categories. U.S. hospitalization rates for hip fracture increased for women from 1988 through 1996 while the rates for men remained stable. Rates of motor vehicle-related injuries increased slightly from 1990 through 1997, and marked variations in state-specific death rates were observed; in most states, older men had death rates approximately twice those for older women. Although suicide rates remain higher among older adults than among any other age group, rates of suicide among adults aged > or =65 years decreased 16% during the study period. Suicide rates among older adults varied by sex and age group. Homicide rates declined 36% among older adults. Homicide rates were highest for black men, followed by black women and white men; the homicide risk for blacks relative to whites decreased from 4.8 to 3.9 per 100,000 persons, indicating that the gap between rates for blacks and whites is closing. Half of the older homicide victims were killed by someone they knew. INTERPRETATION: The increase in rates of fall-related deaths and hip fracture hospitalizations from 1988 through 1996 might reflect a change in the proportion of adults aged > or =85 years compared with those aged 65-84 years - a change that results, in part, from reduced mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases. Fall-related death rates might be higher among older men because they often have a higher prevalence of comorbid conditions than women of similar age. Racial differences in hospitalization rates might have some underlying biologic basis; the prevalence of osteoporosis, a condition that contributes to reduced bone mass and increased bone fragility, is greatest among older white women. Compared with whites aged > or =65 years, blacks of comparable ages have greater bone mass and are less likely to sustain fall-related hip fractures. Additional studies are needed to determine why rates of motor vehicle-related injury have increased slightly among older adults and why these rates vary by state. Declining rates of suicide among older adults might be related to changes in the effect or type of risk factors traditionally observed in this age group. Research is needed to identify reasons for variations in suicide rates among older persons. Homicides among olde     

高血压年龄患病专率的数学模型

从1979年我国全国高血压抽样普查结果看来,不同地区不同性别人群在15~50岁年龄范围内,高血压患病率普遍呈随年龄增长的类似趋势。本文试用指数曲线ŷ=de^bx和ŷ=HBx来模拟各地的这个趋势。所得的数学模型的拟合度是高的。根据以上模型,可以推算出高血压患病率随年龄而增的速率dŷ/dx.各个人群的数学模型中特有的d、b二值(或H、B二值)及推导所得的dŷ/dx,可能是测量和比较不同条件下的人群发病趋势和研究环境因子或人群特征与疾病关系的有价值的指标.     

Predictive factors for incident musculoskeletal disorders in an in-plant surveillance program

OBJECTIVES: A surveillance program for upper-limb work-related musculoskeletal disorders (UWMSD) based on assessment of health and risk factors was implemented between 1996 and 2000 in a large shoe factory with overall high levels for biomechanical exposure. The study aimed to identify workers with an increased risk of UWMSD incidence. METHODS: In 1996, 1997 and 2000, 166 workers filled out a questionnaire and underwent a standardized physical examination. Factors from the 1996 questionnaire (general, personal and occupational factors) associated with UWMSD incidence in 1997 were selected. The predictive role of these variables was studied with a logistic model, taking into account also gender and age. The performance of a risk score based on this model was studied in 2000, using the Wilcoxon test and ROC curves. RESULTS: In 1997, 28 incident cases of UWMSD were observed (N = 107, 26.2%). Work pace and prior history of UWMSD were the only factors significantly associated with UWMSD incidence in 1997 (respectively 33% versus 13%, P = 0.02 and 58% versus 22%, P = 0.01). Psychological distress (36% versus 21%, P = 0.10), physical fatigue (35% versus 22%, P = 0.14), repetitiveness (30% versus 18%, P = 0.17) and task precision (33% versus 21%, P = 0.16) were also included in the logistic model for 1997 UWMSD incidence. Controlling for these variables, prior history of UWMSD remained associated with incidence in 1997 (OR = 5.5, 95% CI = 1.4-21.8). In the period from 1997 to 2000, 24 incident cases were observed (N = 102, 23.5%). The risk score, based on variables from the 1997 model, was significantly higher for incident cases (median = 6 in incident cases versus 4.5 for healthy subjects, P = 0.02). ROC curves indicated that the highest agreement reached 67% for sensitivity and 59% for specificity. Among subjects who did not change their task (N = 71, 18 incident cases), performance reached 66% for specificity with the same sensitivity. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that surveillance programs of UWMSD at a company level are possible even with overall high levels for biomechanical exposure and should take into account occupational and personal factors, including prior history of UWMSD.     

Hospital admissions and mortality: association with air pollution in São Paulo, Brazil, 1993 to 1997

OBJECTIVE: To investigate short-term effects of air pollution on respiratory morbidity of children under 15 and elderly mortality. METHODS: The study was carried out in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. Daily hospital admissions due to respiratory conditions in children under 15 and mortality of adults over 64 years of age were obtained for the period ranging from 1993 to 1997. Daily levels of PM10, CO and O3 were collected for the same period. Poisson regression analysis was used in generalized additive models, which were adjusted for temporal trends, seasonality, day of the week, temperature and relative humidity as well as serial autocorrelation. RESULTS: A 10th to 90th percentile variation of pollutants was significantly associated with respiratory admissions of children and PM10 (%RR=10.0), CO (%RR=6.1), and O3 (%RR=2.5). Similar results were observed for mortality in elderly people and PM10 (%RR=8.1) and CO (%RR=7.9). CONCLUSIONS: The study results are consistent with other studies showing an association of short-term variations of air pollution and increase of morbidity and mortality in large urban centers.     

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. METHODS: The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. RESULTS: Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. CONCLUSION: Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.     

Mortality by education in German speaking Switzerland, 1990-1997: results from the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND: The aim of this paper is to show for the first time mortality differentials by level of education for Swiss men and women. This work is of interest to public health efforts in Switzerland as well as for co-operative international research into the determinants of socioeconomic differentials in health and mortality. METHODS: This study is based on a longitudinal data set from the Swiss National Cohort, currently incorporating a probabilistic record linkage of the 1990 Swiss census, and all subsequent deaths until the end of 1997. The study population covers all Swiss nationals aged >/=25 years living in German speaking Switzerland, with 19.7 million person-years and 296 929 deaths observed. Educational gradients were analysed using standardized mortality ratios, multiple logistic regression, and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). RESULTS: There were sizeable gradients in mortality by education for all age groups and both sexes. The mortality odds ratio decreased by 7.2% (95% CI: 7.0-7.5%) per additional year of education for men, and by 6.0% (95% CI: 5.6-6.3%) for women. In men, we found a steady decrease of the gradient from 13.1% (95% CI: 11.9-14.4%) in the age group 25-39 to 4.5% (95% CI: 4.0-5.0%) in the age group >/=75 years. For women in the age groups under 65 the gradients were smaller; over the age of 40 there was no decrease with increasing age. These results were fairly insensitive to variations in the parameters of record linkage. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a comparatively low overall mortality, Swiss men in the 1990s show larger relative gradients in mortality by education than men in other European countries in the 1980s, with the possible exception of younger men in Italy. In Switzerland there is a sizeable potential for further increasing overall life expectancy by reducing the mortality of those with a lower educational level. The results presented contribute to a reliable assessment of socioeconomic mortality differentials in Europe.