Variation in the Efficacy of Hormone Replacement Therapy in the Prevention of Hip Fracture

Use of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has been associated with a reduced risk of osteoporotic fractures. However, it is uncertain whether this risk reduction is modified by other risk factors for hip fracture. In a population-based case–control study in Sweden, we investigated the association between HRT and hip fracture risk within categories of age, body measures and lifestyle factors in postmenopausal women, 50–81 years of age. Mailed questionnaires and telephone interviews were used to collect data. Of those eligible, 1328 incident cases with hip fracture (82.5%) and 3312 randomly selected controls (81.6%) answered the questionnaire. Ever use of HRT in women less than 75 years old was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 95% CI 0.50–0.87) for hip fracture compared with OR 0.40 (95% CI 0.21–0.77) in women 75 years or older. We found a significant interaction between HRT and both weight and physical activity (p<0.05). The protective effect of HRT was particularly pronounced in lean women: compared with never HRT users, ever users weighing under 60 kg had an OR of 0.44 (95% CI 0.30–0.66) whereas women weighing more than 70 kg had an OR of 0.91 (95% CI 0.53-1.-56). Women with low recent leisure physical activity (less than 1 h/week) similarly benefited more from HRT for hip fracture prevention than women with a higher degree of recreational physical activity. The observed interactions with weight and physical activity suggest that HRT has the best protective effect against hip fracture among high-risk women. Received: 7 October 1997 / Revised: 21 January 1998     

Differences in Risk Factor Patterns Between Cervical and Trochanteric Hip Fractures

The two types of hip fracture – cervical and trochanteric femoral fractures – are generally considered together in etiologic studies. However, women with a trochanteric fracture may be more osteoporotic than those with cervical hip fractures, and have higher post-fracture mortality. To explore differences in risk factor patterns between the two types of hip fracture we used data from a large population-based case–control study in Swedish women, 50–81 years of age. Data were collected by questionnaire, to which more than 80% of subjects responded. Of the cases included, 811 had had a cervical fracture and 483 a trochanteric fracture during the study period; these cases were compared with 3312 randomly selected controls. Height and hormonal factors appeared to affect the risk of the two types of hip fracture differently. For every 5 cm of current height, women with a cervical fracture had an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.23 (95% CI 1.15–1.32) compared with an OR of 1.06 (95% CI 0.97–1.15) for women with trochanteric fractures. Later menopausal age was protective for trochanteric fractures (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91–0.99 per 2 years) but no such association was found for cervical fractures. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had an OR of 1.48 (95% CI 1.12–1.95) for trochanteric fractures and 1.22 (95% CI 0.98–1.52) for cervical fractures. Current hormone replacement therapy was similarly protective for both fracture types, but former use substantially reduced risk only for trochanteric fractures: OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.33–0.92) compared with 1.00 (95% CI 0.71–1.39) for cervical fractures. These risk factor patterns suggest etiologic differences between the fracture types which have to be considered when planning preventive interventions. Received: 22 March 1999 / Accepted: 28 May 1999     

Characteristics of Falls and Risk of Hip Fracture in Elderly Men

The steep rise in hip fracture incidence rates with age is not fully explained by an increase in the frequency of falls or by reduction in bone mineral density, suggesting that circumstances of falls may also affect the risk of hip fracture. Previous studies conducted mainly among women have identified the importance of the orientation of a fall in the etiology of hip fracture. In this case–control study among men of 45 years and older, we evaluated how the circumstances of falls affect the risk of hip fracture. We compared 214 cases with hip fracture due to a fall with 86 controls who had fallen within the past year but did not sustain a hip fracture. As expected, in multivariable age-adjusted analyses men who reported hitting the hip/thigh in a fall had a markedly elevated risk of hip fracture (OR = 97.8; 95% CI = 31.7–302). Hitting the knee in a fall was associated with reduced risk (OR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.09–0.67). Other factors that were associated with reduced risk of hip fracture among men who fell were more hours of physical activity in the past year (OR = 0.84; 95% CI = 0.73–0.97, for each additional 4 h per week), a greater body mass index (OR = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.40–0.90, for each additional 4 kg/m²), and a history of a fracture when age 45 years or older (OR = 0.26; 95% CI = 0.10–0.69). Reported lower limb dysfunction was associated with increased risk of hip fracture (OR = 6.41; 95% CI = 2.09–19.6) among fallers. The increased risk associated with hitting the hip/thigh in a fall and the reduced risk associated with high body mass index suggest that preventive efforts for older men at high risk might include protective hip pads to reduce the force on the hip in a fall. Exercise and strength training programs may also reduce the risk of hip fracture among men who fall. Received: 12 May 1997 / Accepted: 14 October 1997     

Femoral Neck and Intertrochanteric Fractures Have Different Risk Factors: A Prospective Study

The aim of this study was to determine whether both types of hip fracture, femoral neck and intertrochanteric, have similar risk factors. A prospective cohort study was carried out on community-dwelling elderly women in four areas of the United States: Baltimore, MD; Pittsburgh, PA; Minneapolis, MN and Portland, OR. The participants were 9704 Caucasian women, 65 years and older, of whom 279 had fractured their femoral neck and 222 had fractured their trochanteric region of the proximal femur. The predictors used were the bone mass of the calcaneus and proximal femur, anthropometry, history of fracture (family and personal), medication use, functional status, physical activity and visual function. The main outcome measures were femoral neck and intertrochanteric fractures occurring during an average of 8 years of follow-up. In multivariate proportional hazards models, several risk factors increased the risk of both types of hip fracture; including femoral neck bone density and increased functional difficulty. In hazard regression models that directly compared risk factors for the two types of hip fracture, calcaneal bone mineral density (BMD) predicted femoral neck fractures more strongly than intertrochanteric fractures (OR = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.02–1.31). Steroid use and impaired functional status also predicted femoral neck fractures instead of intertrochanteric fractures. Poor health status (OR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.55–1.00) predicted intertrochanteric fractures more strongly than femoral neck fractures. We conclude that femoral neck fractures are largely predicted by BMD and poor functional ability while aging and poor health status predispose to intertrochanteric fractures. Received: 8 February 2000 / Accepted: 10 June 2000     

Prevalent Vertebral Deformity Predicts Incident Hip though not distal Forearm Fracture: Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study

The presence of a vertebral deformity increases the risk of subsequent spinal deformities. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether the presence of vertebral deformity predicts incident hip and other limb fractures. Six thousand three hundred and forty-four men and 6788 women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centers and followed prospectively for a median of 3 years. All subjects had radiographs performed at baseline and the presence of vertebral deformity was assessed using established morphometric methods. Incident limb fractures which occurred during the follow- up period were ascertained by annual postal questionnaire and confirmed by radiographs, review of medical records and personal interview. During a total of 40 348 person-years of follow-up, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture. Amongst the women, after adjustment for age, prevalent vertebral deformity was a strong predictor of incident hip fracture, (rate ratio (RR) = 4.5; 95% CI 2.1–9.4) and a weak predictor of ‘other’ limb fractures (RR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1–2.4), though not distal forearm fracture (RR = 1.0; 95% CI 0.6–1.6). The predictive risk increased with increasing number of prevalent deformities, particularly for subsequent hip fracture: for two or more deformities, RR = 7.2 (95% CI 3.0–17.3). Amongst men, vertebral deformity was not associated with an increased risk of incident limb fracture though there was a nonsignificant trend toward an increased risk of hip fracture with increasing number of deformities. In summary, prevalent radiographic vertebral deformities in women are a strong predictor of hip fracture, and to a lesser extent humerus and ‘other’ limb fractures; however, they do not predict distal forearm fractures. Received: 23 February 2000 / Accepted: 11 August 2000     

Fall Characterictics, Functional Mobility and Bone Mineral Density as Risk Factors of Hip Fracture in the Community-Dwelling Ambulatory Elderly

Hip fracture is the most serious consequence of osteoporosis, frequently occurring in the elderly; however, no research has been performed to identify the fall characteristics, functional mobility and bone mineral density (BMD) concurrently as risk factors. We investigated the risk factors of hip fractures using a multifactorial approach for a further preventive strategy. This age- and sex-matched case-control study was conducted in a community-based general hospital. A total of 252 consecutive community-dwelling ambulatory elderly, aged between 65 and 85 years, were studied: 127 patients (faller with hip fracture) and 125 controls (faller without hip fracture). Body mass index (BMI), predisposing medical conditions, fall characteristics, functional mobility and BMD of the hip were evaluated by direct interview and clinical examination. In the final model of multivariate regression analysis, risk factors for hip fracture were direct hip impact (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 4.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.7–8.8), previous stroke (adjusted OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3–6.3), sideways fall (adjusted OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.6–3.9), functional mobility (a decrease of 1 SD; adjusted OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1–3.5), BMI (a decrease of 1 SD; adjusted OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1–2.8) and femoral neck BMD (a decrease of 1 SD; adjusted OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0–2.8). The effect of risk factors remained the same in different analysis sets, and adding or removing femoral neck BMD did not change other risk factors, though BMD was significantly correlated with functional mobility and BMI. Importantly, both sideways fall and direct hip impact are independent predictors of hip fracture. From these results, we suggest a preventive strategy of hip fracture in the elderly: besides the maintenance of BMD, keeping an appropriate body weight and maintaining a physically active lifestyle might be crucial. Received: 11 January 2001 / Accepted: 6 July 2001     

Proximal Femur Geometry To Detect and Distinguish Femoral Neck Fractures from Trochanteric Fractures in Postmenopausal Women

Some proximal femur geometry (PFG) parameters, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), have been reported to discriminate subjects with hip fracture. Relatively few studies have tested their ability to discriminate femoral neck fractures from those of the trochanter. To this end we performed a cross-sectional study in a population of 547 menopausal women over 69 years of age with femoral neck fractures (n= 88), trochanteric fractures (n= 93) or controls (n= 366). Hip axis length (HAL), neck–shaft angle (NSA), femoral neck diameter (FND) and femoral shaft diameter (FSD) were measured by DXA, as well as the bone mineral density (BMD) of the nonfractured hip at the femoral neck, trochanter and Ward’s triangle. In fractured subjects, BMD was lower at each measurement site. HAL was longer and NSA wider in those with femoral neck fractures. With logistic regression the age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in BMD was significantly associated at each measurement site with femoral neck fracture (femoral neck BMD: OR 1.9, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.4–2.5; trochanter BMD: OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2–2.0; Ward’s triangle BMD: OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3–2.2) and trochanteric fracture (femoral neck BMD: OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9–3.6; trochanter BMD: OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.2–4.1; Ward’s triangle BMD: OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4–2.3). Age-adjusted OR for 1 SD increases in NSA (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.7–2.8) and HAL (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.6) was significantly associated with the fracture risk only for femoral neck fracture. In the best predictive model the strongest predictors were site-matched BMD for both fracture types and NSA for neck fracture. Trochanteric BMD had the greatest area (0.78, standard error (SE) 0.02) under the receiver operating characteristic curve in trochanteric fractures, whereas for NSA (0.72, SE 0.03) this area was greatest in femoral neck fractures. These results confirm the association of BMD with proximal femur fracture and support the evidence that PFG plays a significant role only in neck fracture prediction, since NSA is the best predictive parameter among those tested. Received: 24 April 2001 / Accepted: 1 August 2001     

Socioeconomic Status, Marital Status and Hip Fracture Risk: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

Socioeconomic status and social support have been identified as important determinants of several diseases and overall mortality, but these factors have not been adequately examined in relation to hip fracture risk. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship of socioeconomic status and marital status to hip fracture risk. We used data from a population-based case–control study in postmenopausal women aged 50–81 years during 1993–1995 who resided in six counties in Sweden. The analysis was based on 1327 incident cases of hip fracture and 3262 randomly selected controls. Socioeconomic and marital status were obtained by record linkage with census data in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990. Information on other possible risk factors for hip fracture was collected by a mailed questionnaire. Women who were gainfully employed in 1990 had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.96] compared with those not gainfully employed; those in the highest tertile of household income had an OR of 0.74 (95% CI 0.60–0.90) compared with those in the lowest tertile of income. Women who lived in a one-family house had an OR of 0.85 (95% CI 0.72–0.99) compared with those living in an apartment. Divorced, widowed or unmarried women had a higher risk of hip fracture than married or cohabiting women; the OR was 1.40 (95% CI 1.06–1.85). Married women who were both gainfully employed and were living in a one-family house had a substantially decreased risk of hip fracture compared with unemployed women living without a partner in an apartment (OR 0.39; 95% CI 0.22–0.71). Occupational affiliation among women ever employed, and educational level, were not associated with hip fracture risk. We conclude that employment, household income, type of housing and marital status seem to be risk indicators of hip fracture risk independent of known osteoporotic risk factors. Received: 6 October 1999 / Accepted: 29 March 2000     

Quantitative Ultrasound and Bone Densitometry to Evaluate the Risk of Nonspine Fractures: A Prospective Study

The ability of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) to estimate the risk of osteoporotic fractures was evaluated in a prospective study over a mean time of 5.47 years in 254 postmenopausal women (mean age 58.06 ± 7.67 years). Baseline measurements of ultrasound transmission velocity (UTV) and bone mineral density (BMD) were taken at the distal radius (DR). UTV was also measured at the patella (P). Fifty nonspine fractures due to minor trauma were detected during annual check-ups with an incidence of 3.59/year. Fractures occurred in older women with a lower BMD and QUS. Using Cox regression analysis the relative risk (RR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in the unadjusted QUS and BMD measurements was: BMD-DR = 3.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57–8.09; UTV-DR = 5.35, 95% CI 2.07–13.83; UTV-P = 4.49, 95% CI 2.08–9.68. The relationship between BMD and QUS variables and fracture risk persisted after adjusting for potential confounders apart from previous fractures, giving the following RR: BMD-DR = 2.99, 95% CI 1.06–8.41; UTV-DR = 3.69, 95% CI 1.18–11.49; UTV-P = 3.89, 95% CI 1.53–9.90. Correcting also for previous fractures, only UTV-P remained an effective predictor of fracture risk even after QUS measurement correction for BMD. Wrist fractures were best related to BMD-DR (RR 7.33, 95% CI 1.43–37.50) and UTV-DR (RR 10.94, 95% CI 1.10–108.45), while hip and ankle fractures were significantly associated only with UTV-P (hip: RR 32.14, 95% CI 1.83–562.80; ankle: RR 17.60, 95% CI 1.78–173.79). The combined use of BMD and QUS is a better predictor of fracture risk than either technique used separately. Comparison of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves did not show differences in the ability of BMD and QUS to correctly distinguish fractures. In conclusion, QUS predicts fracture risk in osteoporotic women at least as well as BMD. UTV-DR and BMD-DR are good predictors of wrist fractures, while UTV-P is strongly related to hip and ankle fractures. QUS and BMD combined improve the diagnostic ability of each technique individually. Received: 27 April 1999 / Accepted: 3 December 1999     

Forearm Fractures as Predictors of Subsequent Osteoporotic Fractures

To assess the ability of distal forearm fractures to predict future fractures, we conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study among the 1288 residents (243 men, 1045 women) of Rochester, Minnesota age 35 years or older who experienced their first distal forearm fracture in 1975–94. During 9664 person-years of follow-up, 548 patients experienced 1109 subsequent fractures, excluding 195 that occurred on the same day as the index forearm fracture. The cumulative incidence of any subsequent fracture was 55% by 10 years and 80% by 20 years following the initial distal forearm fracture. Compared to expected fracture rates in the community, the risk of a hip fracture following the index forearm fracture was increased 1.4-fold in women (95% CI, 1.1–1.8) and 2.7-fold in men (95% CI, 0.98–5.8). In women, the risk of hip fracture differed by age, as we had found in a previous study. Women over age 70 had a 1.6-fold increase (95% CI, 1.2–2.0) in subsequent hip fracture risk whereas women who sustained their first forearm fracture before age 70 years did not have significantly increased risk. By contrast, vertebral fractures were significantly increased at all ages, with a 5.2-fold increase (95% CI, 4.5–5.9) in risk among women and a 10.7-fold increase (95% CI, 6.7–16.3) among men following a first distal forearm fracture. The increased risk in men suggests that a sentinel forearm fracture should not be ignored. Among the women, we also found a missed opportunity for intervention as hormone replacement therapy was underutilized. Received: 8 May 1998 / Accepted: 16 October 1998     

Risk Factors for Perimenopausal Fractures: A Prospective Study

This prospective study was aimed at determining the risk factors for the development of fractures in perimenopausal women. The study group (n= 3068) was comprised of a stratified population sample of women aged between 47 and 56 years. During the follow-up period of 3.6 years, 257 (8.4%) of the women sustained a total of 295 fractures. After adjustment for covariates, the relative risk (RR) of sustaining a fracture was found to be 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–1.6] for a 1 standard deviation (SD) decrease in the spinal and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Women with a previous fracture history were found to have an increased risk of fracture [RR 1.7 (95% CI 1.3–2.2)] and those reporting three or more chronic illnesses exhibited a RR of 1.4 (95% CI 1.0–1.9). Women not using hormone replacement therapy (HRT) had a RR of 1.5 (95% CI 1.1–2.2) for all fracture types. When osteoporotic fractures (vertebral, hip, proximal humerus and wrist fractures; n= 98) were used as an endpoint, the independent risk factors were found to be a low BMD (RR for a 1 SD decrease in both spinal and femoral neck BMD was 1.6, 95% CI 1.3–2.0), a previous fracture history (RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.3–2.9) and nonuse of HRT (RR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3–4.0). The independent risk factors for all other fractures (n = 158) were a low BMD (RR for a 1 SD decrease in the spinal BMD was 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.6 and in the femoral neck BMD was 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.5), a previous fracture history (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.2), smoking (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–2.7) and having had three or more chronic illnesses (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.2). Weight, height, age, menopausal status, maternal hip fracture, use of alcohol, coffee consumption or dietary calcium intake were not independently associated with the development of any particular type of fracture. We conclude that the independent risk factors for perimenopausal fractures are a low bone density, previous fracture history, nonuse of HRT, having had three or more chronic illnesses and smoking, the gradient of risk being similar for spinal and femoral neck BMD measurements in the perimenopausal population. The risk factors are slightly different for perimenopausal osteoporotic than for other types of fractures. Received: 6 April 1999 / Accepted: 18 August 1999     

Vertebral Fractures Predict Subsequent Fractures

This population-based study documents an increase in most types of fractures following the occurrence of a clinically recognized vertebral fracture among 820 Rochester, Minnesota, residents. During 4349 person-years of follow-up, 896 new fractures were observed. Relative to incidence rates in the community, there was a 2.8-fold increase in the risk of any fracture, which was greater in men (standardized incidence ratio (SIR), 4.2; 95% CI, 3.2–5.3) than women (SIR, 2.7; 95% CI, 2.4–3.0). The estimated cumulative incidence of any fracture after 10 years was 70%. The greatest increase in risk was for subsequent fractures of the axial skeleton, in particular a 12.6-fold increase (95% CI, 11–14) in additional vertebral fractures. There was a lesser increase in most limb fractures, including a 2.3-fold increase (95% CI, 1.8–2.9) in hip fractures and a 1.6-fold increase (95% CI, 1.01–2.4) in distal forearm fractures. There was a slightly greater association with distal forearm fractures among those whose first vertebral fracture occurred before age 70 years but a similar relationship with hip fractures, including cervical and intertrochanteric hip fractures separately, regardless of age at the initial vertebral fracture. There was also an equivalent increase in subsequent fracture risk whether the initial vertebral fracture was attributed to severe or moderate trauma. These data show that vertebral fractures represent an important risk factor for fractures in general, not just those of the spine and hip. Received: 2 September 1998 / Accepted: 9 February 1999     

Predictors of Fractures in Elderly Women

In a prospective study of 348 apparently healthy women, aged 70 years and over (mean 80.3 years), we examined bone mineral density (BMD), biochemical markers of bone metabolism, and some easily measurable predictors in relation to hip and osteoporotic fractures. In addition, we constructed risk profiles for hip and osteoporotic fractures. At baseline, BMD at both hips, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, body height and body weight were measured. At the same time, serum and urine samples were obtained for biochemical analysis. Serum samples were analyzed for vitamin D metabolites, sex hormone binding globulin, serum intact parathyroid hormone, osteocalcin, alkaline phosphatase, phosphate, albumin, calcium and creatinine. In 2 h fasting urine, hydroxyproline, type I collagen crosslinked N-telopeptide (NTx) and calcium excretion were measured. Furthermore, easily measurable predictors, such as previous fracture, body mass index (BMI) and mobility were assessed. During the follow-up period (mean duration 5.0 years), hip and any osteoporotic fracture (wrist, humerus or hip fracture) occurred in 16 and 33 participants, respectively. Data were analyzed using Cox regression analysis. BMD of the trochanter (per 1 SD decrease) and previous fracture were most strongly associated with hip fractures (adjusted relative risk (RR) = 3.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4–6.6; RR = 4.2, 95% CI: 1.5–11.6, respectively) and osteoporotic fractures (RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1–2.8; RR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.5–5.7, respectively). Previous fracture, BMI and mobility were identified as easily measurable predictors for hip fractures, whereas previous fracture, use of loop diuretics and age were predictors for osteoporotic fractures in the risk profile model. The risk of fractures can be predicted with three easily measurable predictors. This study confirms the importance of previous fracture as a predictor for hip fractures and other fractures. It also shows that the use of loop diuretics is a predictor for osteoporotic fractures. Received: 28 January 1999 / Accepted: 29 June 1999     

A Population-Based Study of Fracture Incidence in Southern Tasmania: Lifetime Fracture Risk and Evidence for Geographic Variations within the Same Country

Symptomatic fractures are a significant problem in terms of both morbidity and financial cost. Marked variation in both total and site-specific fracture incidence has been documented internationally but there is limited within-country data. This prospective population-based study documented the incidence of all symptomatic fractures occurring from July 1, 1997 to June 30, 1999 in adults ≥50 years of age resident in Southern Tasmania (total population ≥50 years: 64 688). Fractures were ascertained by reviewing reports from all the radiology providers within the area. There were 701 fractures in men and 1309 fractures in women. The corresponding fracture incidence in men and women was 1248 and 1916 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. Residual lifetime fracture risk in a person aged 50 years was 27% for men and 44% for women with fractures other than hip fractures constituting the majority of symptomatic fracture events. These fracture risk estimates remained remarkably constant with increasing age. In comparison to Geelong, there were significantly lower hip fracture rates (males: RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.45–0.76; females: RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.53–0.71) but significantly higher distal forearm fractures (males: RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.10–3.78; females: RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.11–1.55) and total fractures in men (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.17–1.46) but not women (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.98–1.13). In contrast, Southern Tasmania had lower age-standardized rates of all fractures compared with Dubbo (RR 0.28–0.79). In conclusion, this study provides compelling evidence that fracture incidence varies between different geographic sites within the same country, which has important implications for health planning. In addition, the combination of high residual fracture risk and short life expectancy in elderly subjects suggests fracture prevention will be most cost-effective in later life. Received: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 16 August 2000     

Impact of Hip and Vertebral Fractures on Quality-Adjusted Life Years

The objective of the study was to estimate the impact of hip and vertebral fractures on quality of life in postmenopausal women using a preference-based health measure that is appropriate for economic evaluations and to investigate correlates of health outcome. Interviews to assess health-related quality of life, which also documented other health conditions and characteristics, were undertaken in women age 50 years and older without osteoporotic fractures compared with women with hip and/or vertebral fracture(s). Health status was characterized by self-reported physical limitations and the mental and physical component summary scores of the SF-36. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), which reflect each individual’s assessment of her overall health utility, were estimated with time tradeoff values. Regression methods were used to examine QALY correlates (e.g. time since fracture) for each fracture group and to estimate differences in QALYs between fracture and non-fracture subjects after accounting for other patient characteristics. Among 382 women ages 50–96 years, fracture subjects were significantly older, less likely to use hormone replacement therapy and more likely to report physical limitations than non-fracture subjects. On the QALY scale, where 1 represents perfect health and 0 represents death, mean QALY values were 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) among 114 women with one or more vertebral fractures and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.52, 0.74) among 67 with hip fracture compared with 0.91 (95% CI: 0.88, 0.94) among 201 women without fracture. No significant correlates of QALYs were identified among women with vertebral fracture alone. Among hip fracture subjects, time since hip fracture and presence of a vertebral fracture were significant correlates of QALYs. In multiple regression analyses, estimated QALY differences (fracture minus non-fracture subjects) ranged from –0.05 to –0.55 and were equivalent to losses of 20–58 days, 23–65 days and 115–202 days per year for vertebral fracture (p= 0.001), hip fracture (p= 0.009) and hip plus vertebral fracture (p<0.001) subjects, respectively, depending on age. Thus to adequately assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment, the negative impact of vertebral fractures on QALYs, even among women who have survived a hip fracture, must be considered. Received: 2 February 2001 / Accepted: 23 July 2001     

Ultrasound Measurements for the Prediction of Osteoporotic Fractures in Elderly People

In this prospective study we investigated the predictive value of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measurements and other potential predictors of osteoporotic fractures in the elderly. During a 1-year period, 710 participants (132 men and 578 women), aged 70 years and older (mean age ± SD: 82.8 ± 5.9), were recruited from seven homes and apartment houses for the elderly. QUS measurements (broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and speed of sound (SOS)) were assessed with a clinical bone densitometer. A structured questionnaire was used to collect information on other potential predictors. Follow-up of fractures was done each half year by telephone interviews. During the study period (median follow-up 2.8 years, maximum 3.7 years), 30 participants had a first hip fracture and 54 suffered from a first other nonspinal fracture. Cox regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex, showed that the relative risk (RR) of hip fracture for each standard deviation reduction was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.4–3.7) for BUA and 1.6 (95% CI, 1.1–2.3) for SOS. Slightly weaker relationships were found for any fracture (BUA: RR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2–2.1; SOS: RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0–1.6). Multivariable analyses identified low BUA values and immobility as the strongest predictors for hip fractures and any fracture. Female gender proved to be the strongest predictor for other nonspinal fractures. It can be concluded that QUS measurements can predict the risk for hip fracture and any fracture in elderly people. Received: 23 July 1998 / Accepted: 19 November 1998     

Survival after Hip Fracture: Short- and Long-Term Excess Mortality According to Age and Gender

The purpose of this study was to analyze the excess mortality after hip fracture and to reveal whether, and eventually when, the excess mortality vanished in different groups of age and gender. A population-based, prospective, matched-pair, cohort study among persons 50 years of age and older was conducted involving 1338 female and 487 male hip fracture patients with 11 086 and 8141 controls respectively. Occurrence of hip fracture and mortality were recorded from 1986 until 1995. We studied the excess mortality of the hip fracture patients versus controls by using Kaplan–Meier curves and extended Cox regression with hip fracture (yes/no) as time-dependent covariate. The male hip fracture patients had higher mortality than the women the first year after the injury, irrespective of age, both in absolute terms (31% and 17% respectively) and relative to their age-matched controls. The relative risk (RR) of dying within 1 year for hip fracture patients versus controls was 3.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1–5.2) for women and 4.2 (95% CI 2.8–6.4) for men below 75 years of age. The corresponding figures for persons 85 years and older were 1.6 (95% CI 1.2–2.0) for women and 3.1 (95% CI 2.2–4.2) for men. All groups of age and gender, except women 85 years and older, had a large and significant excess mortality lasting for many years after the hip fracture – at least 5–6 years for women below 75 years of age (RR = 3.2, 95% CI 1.9–5.6). The excess mortality after hip fracture for women 85 years and older had vanished after 3 months (RR = 1.0, 95% CI 0.8–1.1). When referring to the excess mortality after hip fracture it is therefore necessary to specify sex, age and time since injury. Received: 15 September 1998 / Accepted: 23 December 1998     

Unbalanced Diet to Lower Serum Cholesterol Level is a Risk Factor for Postmenopausal Osteoporosis and Distal Forearm Fracture

The purpose of this study was to assess whether dietary changes aimed at reducing serum cholesterol can increase the risk of osteoporosis (OP) and fracture. The study group consisted of 311 postmenopausal women with high serum cholesterol levels and following a diet low in dairy products (calcium intake estimated at less than 300 mg/day) for 27.3 ± 29.1 months. This sample was compared with a case–control group of 622 healthy postmenopausal women paired for age and age at menopause and with a calcium intake estimated at more than 1 g/day. Bone mineral density was measured at the lumbar spine by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Prevalence of OP was significantly higher in women with a low dairy calcium intake (42.1% vs 22.3%; p<0.0001), as was the number of Colles” fractures occurring after menopause (4.5% vs 1.6%; p = 0.008). Multiple logistic regression analyses demonstrated that a diet low in dairy calcium was a risk factor for OP (OR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.84–3.45) and Colles” fracture (OR = 2.72, 95% CI 1.18–6.26). In the low dairy calcium group, diet duration significantly influenced the risk of OP (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.01–1.25 for 1 year of diet). No differences in further risk factors for coronary heart disease were found between the groups, but the proportion of women physically active was lower in the women with high serum cholesterol levels. A diet that severely limits calcium intake from dairy products in an attempt to correct raised serum cholesterol levels is a risk factor for postmenopausal OP and Colles” fracture. Dietary intervention methods to lower serum cholesterol in postmenopausal women should maintain an adequate calcium intake by providing calcium from low-fat dairy products or calcium supplements. Received: 16 May 2000 / Accepted: 18 November 2000     

Factors Associated with Mortality after Hip Fracture

There is a well-known excess mortality subsequent to hip fracture, which is probably restricted to subgroups of hip fracture patients with reduced health status. We studied the association between risk factors and death in 248 hip fracture patients and 248 controls originally enrolled in a population-based case–control study. This cohort was followed for 3 1/2 years with respect to total mortality. A markedly increased mortality was found in hip fracture patients passing a mental status test at a low score [relative risk (RR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-3.7], in hip fracture patients reporting two or more selected chronic diseases (RR = 3.3, 95% CI 1.8–6.1), in hip fracture patients not walking outdoors before the fracture (RR = 3.2, 95% CI 2.0–5.1) and in hip fracture patients in the lower half of handgrip strength distribution (RR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.6–3.4), all compared with the control group. In contrast, hip fracture patients without these risk factors did not have increased mortality compared with the control group. This study suggests that otherwise healthy and fit patients do not have increased mortality subsequent to hip fracture. The excess mortality is restricted to persons with reduced mental status, reduced somatic health and low physical ability. Special attention should be paid to patients with such risk factors in the treatment and rehabilitation period. Received: 2 March 1999 / Accepted: 17 August 1999     

Femoral Bone Mineral Density, Neck-Shaft Angle and Mean Femoral Neck Width as Predictors of Hip Fracture in Men and Women

The effect of femoral bone mineral density (BMD) and several parameters of femoral neck geometry (hip axis length, neck–shaft angle and mean femoral neck width) on hip fracture risk in a Spanish population was assessed in a cross-sectional study. All parameters were determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. There were 411 patients (116 men, 295 women; aged 60–90 years) with hip fractures in whom measurements were taken in the contralateral hip. Controls were 545 persons (235 men, 310 women; aged 60–90 years) who participated in a previous study on BMD in a healthy Spanish population. Femoral neck BMD was significantly lower, and neck–shaft angle and mean femoral neck width significantly higher, in fracture cases than in controls. The logistic regression analysis adjusted by age, height and weight showed that a decrease of 1 standard deviation (SD) in femoral neck BMD was associated with an odds ratio of hip fracture of 4.52 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.93 to 6.96] in men and 4.45 (95% CI 3.11 to 6.36) in women; an increase of 1 SD in neck–shaft angle of 2.45 (95% CI 1.73 to 3.45) in men and 3.48 (95% CI 2.61 to 4.65) in women; and an increase of 1 SD in mean femoral neck width of 2.15 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.98) in men and 2.40 (95% CI 1.79 to 3.22) in women. The use of a combination of femoral BMD and geometric parameters of the femoral neck except for hip axis length may improve hip fracture risk prediction allowing a better therapeutic strategy for hip fracture prevention. Received: 16 September 1999 / Accepted: 22 February 2000