Trends in suicide ideation, plans, gestures, and attempts in the United States, 1990-1992 to 2001-2003

Context  Little is known about trends in suicidal ideation, plans, gestures, or attempts or about their treatment. Such data are needed to guide and evaluate policies to reduce suicide-related behaviors. Objective  To analyze nationally representative trend data on suicidal ideation, plans, gestures, attempts, and their treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants  Data came from the 1990-1992 National Comorbidity Survey and the 2001-2003 National Comorbidity Survey Replication. These surveys asked identical questions to 9708 people aged 18 to 54 years about the past year’s occurrence of suicidal ideation, plans, gestures, attempts, and treatment. Trends were evaluated by using pooled logistic regression analysis. Face-to-face interviews were administered in the homes of respondents, who were nationally representative samples of US English-speaking residents. Main Outcome Measure  Self-reports about suicide-related behaviors and treatment in the year before interview. Results  No significant changes occurred between 1990-1992 and 2001-2003 in suicidal ideation (2.8% vs 3.3%; P = .43), plans (0.7% vs 1.0%; P = .15), gestures (0.3% vs 0.2%; P = .24), or attempts (0.4%-0.6%; P = .45), whereas conditional prevalence of plans among ideators increased significantly (from 19.6% to 28.6%; P = .04), and conditional prevalence of gestures among planners decreased significantly (from 21.4% to 6.4%; P = .003). Treatment increased dramatically among ideators who made a gesture (40.3% vs 92.8%) and among ideators who made an attempt (49.6% vs 79.0%). Conclusions  Despite a dramatic increase in treatment, no significant decrease occurred in suicidal thoughts, plans, gestures, or attempts in the United States during the 1990s. Continued efforts are needed to increase outreach to untreated individuals with suicidal ideation before the occurrence of attempts and to improve treatment effectiveness for such cases.      

Evaluating iatrogenic risk of youth suicide screening programs: a randomized controlled trial

Context  Universal screening for mental health problems and suicide risk is at the forefront of the national agenda for youth suicide prevention, yet no study has directly addressed the potential harm of suicide screening. Objective  To examine whether asking about suicidal ideation or behavior during a screening program creates distress or increases suicidal ideation among high school students generally or among high-risk students reporting depressive symptoms, substance use problems, or suicide attempts. Design, Setting, and Participants  A randomized controlled study conducted within the context of a 2-day screening strategy. Participants were 2342 students in 6 high schools in New York State in 2002-2004. Classes were randomized to an experimental group (n = 1172), which received the first survey with suicide questions, or to a control group (n = 1170), which did not receive suicide questions. Main Outcome Measures  Distress measured at the end of the first survey and at the beginning of the second survey 2 days after the first measured on the Profile of Mood States adolescent version (POMS-A) instrument. Suicidal ideation assessed in the second survey. Results  Experimental and control groups did not differ on distress levels immediately after the first survey (mean [SD] POMS-A score, 5.5 [9.7] in the experimental group and 5.1 [10.0] in the control group; P = .66) or 2 days later (mean [SD] POMS-A score, 4.3 [9.0] in the experimental group and 3.9 [9.4] in the control group; P = .41), nor did rates of depressive feelings differ (13.3% and 11.0%, respectively; P = .19). Students exposed to suicide questions were no more likely to report suicidal ideation after the survey than unexposed students (4.7% and 3.9%, respectively; P = .49). High-risk students (defined as those with depression symptoms, substance use problems, or any previous suicide attempt) in the experimental group were neither more suicidal nor distressed than high-risk youth in the control group; on the contrary, depressed students and previous suicide attempters in the experimental group appeared less distressed (P = .01) and suicidal (P = .02), respectively, than high-risk control students. Conclusions  No evidence of iatrogenic effects of suicide screening emerged. Screening in high schools is a safe component of youth suicide prevention efforts.      

Cognitive therapy for the prevention of suicide attempts: a randomized controlled trial

Context  Suicide attempts constitute a major risk factor for completed suicide, yet few interventions specifically designed to prevent suicide attempts have been evaluated. Objective  To determine the effectiveness of a 10-session cognitive therapy intervention designed to prevent repeat suicide attempts in adults who recently attempted suicide. Design, Setting, and Participants  Randomized controlled trial of adults (N = 120) who attempted suicide and were evaluated at a hospital emergency department within 48 hours of the attempt. Potential participants (N = 350) were consecutively recruited from October 1999 to September 2002; 66 refused to participate and 164 were ineligible. Participants were followed up for 18 months. Intervention  Cognitive therapy or enhanced usual care with tracking and referral services. Main Outcome Measures  Incidence of repeat suicide attempts and number of days until a repeat suicide attempt. Suicide ideation (dichotomized), hopelessness, and depression severity at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. Results  From baseline to the 18-month assessment, 13 participants (24.1%) in the cognitive therapy group and 23 participants (41.6%) in the usual care group made at least 1 subsequent suicide attempt (asymptotic z score, 1.97; P = .049). Using the Kaplan-Meier method, the estimated 18-month reattempt-free probability in the cognitive therapy group was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.85) and in the usual care group was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.44-0.70). Participants in the cognitive therapy group had a significantly lower reattempt rate (Wald ²₁ = 3.9; P = .049) and were 50% less likely to reattempt suicide than participants in the usual care group (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.26-0.997). The severity of self-reported depression was significantly lower for the cognitive therapy group than for the usual care group at 6 months (P= .02), 12 months (P = .009), and 18 months (P = .046). The cognitive therapy group reported significantly less hopelessness than the usual care group at 6 months (P = .045). There were no significant differences between groups based on rates of suicide ideation at any assessment point. Conclusion  Cognitive therapy was effective in preventing suicide attempts for adults who recently attempted suicide.      

Association of combatant status and sexual violence with health and mental health outcomes in postconflict Liberia

Kirsten Johnson, MD, MPH; Jana Asher, MSc; Stephanie Rosborough, MD, MPH; Amisha Raja, MA, PsyD; Rajesh Panjabi, MD, MPH; Charles Beadling, MD; Lynn Lawry, MD, MSPH, MSc

JAMA. 2008;300(6):676-690.

Context  Liberia's wars since 1989 have cost tens of thousands of lives and left many people mentally and physically traumatized.

Objectives  To assess the prevalence and impact of war-related psychosocial trauma, including information on participation in the Liberian civil wars, exposure to sexual violence, social functioning, and mental health.

Design, Setting, and Participants  A cross-sectional, population-based, multistage random cluster survey of 1666 adults aged 18 years or older using structured interviews and questionnaires, conducted during a 3-week period in May 2008 in Liberia.

Main Outcome Measures  Symptoms of major depressive disorder (MDD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), social functioning, exposure to sexual violence, and health and mental health needs among Liberian adults who witnessed or participated in the conflicts during the last 2 decades.

Results  In the Liberian adult household–based population, 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36%-45%; n = 672/1659) met symptom criteria for MDD, 44% (95% CI, 38%-49%; n = 718/1661) met symptom criteria for PTSD, and 8% (95% CI, 5%-10%; n = 133/1666) met criteria for social dysfunction. Thirty-three percent of respondents (549/1666) reported having served time with fighting forces, and 33.2% of former combatant respondents (182/549) were female. Former combatants experienced higher rates of exposure to sexual violence than noncombatants: among females, 42.3% (95% CI, 35.4%-49.1%) vs 9.2% (95% CI, 6.7%-11.7%), respectively; among males, 32.6% (95% CI, 27.6%-37.6%) vs 7.4% (95% CI, 4.5%-10.4%). The rates of symptoms of PTSD, MDD, and suicidal ideation were higher among former combatants than noncombatants and among those who experienced sexual violence vs those who did not. The prevalence of PTSD symptoms among female former combatants who experienced sexual violence (74%; 95% CI, 63%-84%) was higher than among those who did not experience sexual violence (44%; 95% CI, 33%-53%). The prevalence of PTSD symptoms among male former combatants who experienced sexual violence was higher (81%; 95% CI, 74%-87%) than among male former combatants who did not experience sexual violence (46%; 95% CI, 39%-52%). Male former combatants who experienced sexual violence also reported higher rates of symptoms of depression and suicidal ideation. Both former combatants and noncombatants experienced inadequate access to health care (33.0% [95% CI, 22.6%-43.4%] and 30.1% [95% CI, 18.7%-41.6%], respectively).

Conclusions  Former combatants in Liberia were not exclusively male. Both female and male former combatants who experienced sexual violence had worse mental health outcomes than noncombatants and other former combatants who did not experience exposure to sexual violence.

     

Reducing suicidal ideation and depressive symptoms in depressed older primary care patients: a randomized controlled trial

Context  Suicide rates are highest in late life; the majority of older adults who die by suicide have seen a primary care physician in preceding months. Depression is the strongest risk factor for late-life suicide and for suicide's precursor, suicidal ideation. Objective  To determine the effect of a primary care intervention on suicidal ideation and depression in older patients. Design and Setting  Randomized controlled trial known as PROSPECT (Prevention of Suicide in Primary Care Elderly: Collaborative Trial) with patient recruitment from 20 primary care practices in New York City, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh regions, May 1999 through August 2001. Participants  Two-stage, age-stratified (60-74, =" BORDER="0">75 years) depression screening of randomly sampled patients; enrollment included patients who screened positive and a random sample of screened negative patients. This analysis included patients with a depression diagnosis (N = 598). Intervention  Treatment guidelines tailored for the elderly with care management compared with usual care. Main Outcome Measures  Assessment of suicidal ideation and depression severity at baseline, 4 months, 8 months, and 12 months. Results  Rates of suicidal ideation declined faster (P = .01) in intervention patients compared with usual care patients; at 4 months, in the intervention group, raw rates of suicidal ideation declined 12.9% points (29.4% to 16.5%) compared with 3.0% points (20.1% to 17.1% in usual care [P = .01]). Among patients reporting suicidal ideation, resolution of ideation was faster among intervention patients (P = .03); differences peaked at 8 months (70.7% vs 43.9% resolution; P = .005). Intervention patients had a more favorable course of depression in both degree and speed of symptom reduction; group difference peaked at 4 months. The effects on depression were not significant among patients with minor depression unless suicidal ideation was present. Conclusions  Evidence of the intervention's effectiveness in community-based primary care with a heterogeneous sample of depressed patients introduces new challenges related to its sustainability and dissemination. The intervention's effectiveness in reducing suicidal ideation, regardless of depression severity, reinforces its role as a prevention strategy to reduce risk factors for suicide in late life.      

The epidemiology of major depressive disorder: results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R)

Context  Uncertainties exist about prevalence and correlates of major depressive disorder (MDD). Objective  To present nationally representative data on prevalence and correlates of MDD by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria, and on study patterns and correlates of treatment and treatment adequacy from the recently completed National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R). Design  Face-to-face household survey conducted from February 2001 to December 2002. Setting  The 48 contiguous United States. Participants  Household residents ages 18 years or older (N = 9090) who responded to the NCS-R survey. Main Outcome Measures  Prevalence and correlates of MDD using the World Health Organization's (WHO) Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), 12-month severity with the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report (QIDS-SR), the Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS), and the WHO disability assessment scale (WHO-DAS). Clinical reinterviews used the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. Results  The prevalence of CIDI MDD for lifetime was 16.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.1-17.3) (32.6-35.1 million US adults) and for 12-month was 6.6% (95% CI, 5.9-7.3) (13.1-14.2 million US adults). Virtually all CIDI 12-month cases were independently classified as clinically significant using the QIDS-SR, with 10.4% mild, 38.6% moderate, 38.0% severe, and 12.9% very severe. Mean episode duration was 16 weeks (95% CI, 15.1-17.3). Role impairment as measured by SDS was substantial as indicated by 59.3% of 12-month cases with severe or very severe role impairment. Most lifetime (72.1%) and 12-month (78.5%) cases had comorbid CIDI/DSM-IV disorders, with MDD only rarely primary. Although 51.6% (95% CI, 46.1-57.2) of 12-month cases received health care treatment for MDD, treatment was adequate in only 41.9% (95% CI, 35.9-47.9) of these cases, resulting in 21.7% (95% CI, 18.1-25.2) of 12-month MDD being adequately treated. Sociodemographic correlates of treatment were far less numerous than those of prevalence. Conclusions  Major depressive disorder is a common disorder, widely distributed in the population, and usually associated with substantial symptom severity and role impairment. While the recent increase in treatment is encouraging, inadequate treatment is a serious concern. Emphasis on screening and expansion of treatment needs to be accompanied by a parallel emphasis on treatment quality improvement.      

Cognitive-behavior therapy, sertraline, and their combination for children and adolescents with obsessive-compulsive disorder: the Pediatric OCD Treatment Study (POTS) randomized controlled trial

Context  The empirical literature on treatment of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in children and adolescents supports the efficacy of short-term OCD-specific cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT) or medical management with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. However, little is known about their relative and combined efficacy. Objective  To evaluate the efficacy of CBT alone and medical management with the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor sertraline alone, or CBT and sertraline combined, as initial treatment for children and adolescents with OCD. Design, Setting, and Participants  The Pediatric OCD Treatment Study, a balanced, masked randomized controlled trial conducted in 3 academic centers in the United States and enrolling a volunteer outpatient sample of 112 patients aged 7 through 17 years with a primary Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition diagnosis of OCD and a Children’s Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (CY-BOCS) score of 16 or higher. Patients were recruited between September 1997 and December 2002. Interventions  Participants were randomly assigned to receive CBT alone, sertraline alone, combined CBT and sertraline, or pill placebo for 12 weeks. Main Outcome Measures  Change in CY-BOCS score over 12 weeks as rated by an independent evaluator masked to treatment status; rate of clinical remission defined as a CY-BOCS score less than or equal to 10. Results  Ninety-seven of 112 patients (87%) completed the full 12 weeks of treatment. Intent-to-treat random regression analyses indicated a statistically significant advantage for CBT alone (P = .003), sertraline alone (P = .007), and combined treatment (P = .001) compared with placebo. Combined treatment also proved superior to CBT alone (P = .008) and to sertraline alone (P = .006), which did not differ from each other. Site differences emerged for CBT and sertraline but not for combined treatment, suggesting that combined treatment is less susceptible to setting-specific variations. The rate of clinical remission for combined treatment was 53.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36%-70%); for CBT alone, 39.3% (95% CI, 24%-58%); for sertraline alone, 21.4% (95% CI, 10%-40%); and for placebo, 3.6% (95% CI, 0%-19%). The remission rate for combined treatment did not differ from that for CBT alone (P = .42) but did differ from sertraline alone (P = .03) and from placebo (P<.001). CBT alone did not differ from sertraline alone (P = .24) but did differ from placebo (P = .002), whereas sertraline alone did not (P = .10). The 3 active treatments proved acceptable and well tolerated, with no evidence of treatment-emergent harm to self or to others. Conclusion  Children and adolescents with OCD should begin treatment with the combination of CBT plus a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor or CBT alone.      

Association between thimerosal-containing vaccine and autism

Context  Mercuric compounds are nephrotoxic and neurotoxic at high doses. Thimerosal, a preservative used widely in vaccine formulations, contains ethylmercury. Thus it has been suggested that childhood vaccination with thimerosal-containing vaccine could be causally related to neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism. Objective  To determine whether vaccination with a thimerosal-containing vaccine is associated with development of autism. Design, Setting, and Participants  Population-based cohort study of all children born in Denmark from January 1, 1990, until December 31, 1996 (N = 467 450) comparing children vaccinated with a thimerosal-containing vaccine with children vaccinated with a thimerosal-free formulation of the same vaccine. Main Outcome Measures  Rate ratio (RR) for autism and other autistic-spectrum disorders, including trend with dose of ethylmercury. Results  During 2 986 654 person-years, we identified 440 autism cases and 787 cases of other autistic-spectrum disorders. The risk of autism and other autistic-spectrum disorders did not differ significantly between children vaccinated with thimerosal-containing vaccine and children vaccinated with thimerosal-free vaccine (RR, 0.85 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.60-1.20] for autism; RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.88-1.43] for other autistic-spectrum disorders). Furthermore, we found no evidence of a dose-response association (increase in RR per 25 µg of ethylmercury, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.90-1.06] for autism and 1.03 [95% CI, 0.98-1.09] for other autistic-spectrum disorders). Conclusion  The results do not support a causal relationship between childhood vaccination with thimerosal-containing vaccines and development of autistic-spectrum disorders.      

Factors associated with poor mental health among Guatemalan refugees living in Mexico 20 years after civil conflict

Context  From 1981 to 2001, 46 000 refugees who fled the 36-year civil conflict in Guatemala for Chiapas, Mexico were under the protection of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Objectives  To estimate the prevalence of mental illness and factors associated with poor mental health of underserved Guatemalan refugee communities located in Chiapas, Mexico, since 1981 and to assess need for mental health services. Design, Setting, and Participants  Cross-sectional survey of 183 households in 5 Mayan refugee camps in Chiapas representing an estimated 1546 residents (adults and children) conducted November-December 2000. Main Outcome Measures  Symptom criteria of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression as measured by the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire and Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25 (Hopkins-25). Results  One adult (aged =" BORDER="0">16 years) per household (n = 170 respondents) who agreed to participate was included in the analysis, representing an estimated 93% of households. All respondents reported experiencing at least 1 traumatic event with a mean of 8.3 traumatic events per individual. Of the respondents, 20 (11.8%) had all symptom criteria for PTSD. Of the 160 who completed the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, 87 (54.4%) had anxiety symptoms and 62 (38.8%) had symptoms of depression. Witnessing the disappearance of family members (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-15.50), being close to death (AOR, 4.19, 95% CI, 1.03-17.00), or living with 9 to 15 persons in the same home (AOR, 3.69; 95% CI, 1.19-11.39) were associated with symptoms of PTSD. There was a protective factor found for lacking sufficient food (AOR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.01-0.59). Elevated anxiety symptoms were associated with witnessing a massacre (AOR, 10.63; 95% CI, 4.31-26.22), being wounded (AOR, 3.22; 95% CI, 0.95-10.89), and experiencing 7 to 12 traumatic events (AOR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.14-6.27) and 13 to 19 traumatic events (AOR, 2.26; 95% CI, 0.65-7.89). Elevated symptoms of depression were associated with being a woman (AOR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.47-9.04), being widowed (AOR, 27.55; 95% CI, 2.54-299.27), being married (AOR, 1.93; 95% CI, 0.59-6.33), witnessing disappearances (AOR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.16-6.19), experiencing 7 to 12 traumatic events (AOR, 1.57; 95% CI, 0.64-3.88), or experiencing 13 to 19 traumatic events (AOR, 7.44; 95% CI, 2.18-25.37). Conclusion  Psychiatric morbidity related to human rights violations, traumatic events, and refugee status was common among Guatemalan refugees surveyed 20 years after the Guatemalan civil conflict.      

Medicine residents' understanding of the biostatistics and results in the medical literature

Context  Physicians depend on the medical literature to keep current with clinical information. Little is known about residents' ability to understand statistical methods or how to appropriately interpret research outcomes. Objective  To evaluate residents' understanding of biostatistics and interpretation of research results. Design, Setting, and Participants  Multiprogram cross-sectional survey of internal medicine residents. Main Outcome Measure  Percentage of questions correct on a biostatistics/study design multiple-choice knowledge test. Results  The survey was completed by 277 of 367 residents (75.5%) in 11 residency programs. The overall mean percentage correct on statistical knowledge and interpretation of results was 41.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39.7%-43.3%) vs 71.5% (95% CI, 57.5%-85.5%) for fellows and general medicine faculty with research training (P < .001). Higher scores in residents were associated with additional advanced degrees (50.0% [95% CI, 44.5%-55.5%] vs 40.1% [95% CI, 38.3%-42.0%]; P < .001); prior biostatistics training (45.2% [95% CI, 42.7%-47.8%] vs 37.9% [95% CI, 35.4%-40.3%]; P = .001); enrollment in a university-based training program (43.0% [95% CI, 41.0%-45.1%] vs 36.3% [95% CI, 32.6%-40.0%]; P = .002); and male sex (44.0% [95% CI, 41.4%-46.7%] vs 38.8% [95% CI, 36.4%-41.1%]; P = .004). On individual knowledge questions, 81.6% correctly interpreted a relative risk. Residents were less likely to know how to interpret an adjusted odds ratio from a multivariate regression analysis (37.4%) or the results of a Kaplan-Meier analysis (10.5%). Seventy-five percent indicated they did not understand all of the statistics they encountered in journal articles, but 95% felt it was important to understand these concepts to be an intelligent reader of the literature. Conclusions  Most residents in this study lacked the knowledge in biostatistics needed to interpret many of the results in published clinical research. Residency programs should include more effective biostatistics training in their curricula to successfully prepare residents for this important lifelong learning skill.      

Mortality in a cohort of street youth in Montreal

Context  Many studies have shown a high prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, viral hepatitis, drug dependence, and mental health problems among street youth. However, data on mortality among these youth are sparse. Objectives  To estimate mortality rate among street youth in Montreal and to identify causes of death and factors increasing the risk of death. Design, Setting, and Population  From January 1995 to September 2000, 1013 street youth 14 to 25 years of age were recruited in a prospective cohort with semi-annual follow-ups. Original study objectives were to determine the incidence and risk factors for HIV infection in that population; however, several participants died during the first months of follow-up, prompting investigators to add mortality to the study objectives. Mortality data were obtained from the coroner's office and the Institut de la Statistique du Québec. Main Outcome Measures  Mortality rate among participants and factors increasing the risk of death. Results  Twenty-six youth died during follow-up for a mortality rate of 921 per 100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 602-1350); this represented a standardized mortality ratio of 11.4. The observed causes of death were as follows: suicide (13), overdose (8), unintentional injury (2), fulminant hepatitis A (1), heart disease (1); 1 was unidentified. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, HIV infection (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 5.6; 95% CI, 1.9-16.8), daily alcohol use in the last month (AHR = 3.2; 95% CI, 1.3-7.7), homelessness in the last 6 months (AHR = 3.0; 95% CI, 1.1-7.6), drug injection in the last 6 months (AHR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.2-6.2), and male sex (AHR = 2.6; 95% CI, 0.9-7.7) were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Conclusions  Current heavy substance use and homelessness were factors associated with death among street youth. HIV infection was also identified as an important predictor of mortality; however, its role remains to be clarified. These findings should be taken into account when developing interventions to prevent mortality among street youth.      

Recurrent urinary tract infections in children: risk factors and association with prophylactic antimicrobials

Context  The evidence regarding risk factors for recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI) and the risks and benefits of antimicrobial prophylaxis in children is scant. Objectives  To identify risk factors for recurrent UTI in a pediatric primary care cohort, to determine the association between antimicrobial prophylaxis and recurrent UTI, and to identify the risk factors for resistance among recurrent UTIs. Design, Patients, and Setting  From a network of 27 primary care pediatric practices in urban, suburban, and semirural areas spanning 3 states, a cohort of children aged 6 years or younger who were diagnosed with first UTI between July 1, 2001, and May 31, 2006, was assembled. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine risk factors for recurrent UTI and the association between antimicrobial prophylaxis and recurrent UTI, and a nested case-control study was performed among children with recurrent UTI to identify risk factors for resistant infections. Main Outcome Measures  Time to recurrent UTI and antimicrobial resistance of recurrent UTI pathogens. Results  Among 74 974 children in the network, 611 (0.007 per person-year) had a first UTI and 83 (0.12 per person-year after first UTI) had a recurrent UTI. In multivariable Cox time-to-event models, factors associated with increased risk of recurrent UTI included white race (0.17 per person-year; hazard ratio [HR], 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-3.16), age 3 to 4 years (0.22 per person-year; HR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.37-5.51), age 4 to 5 years (0.19 per person-year; HR, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.19-5.12), and grade 4 to 5 vesicoureteral reflux (0.60 per person-year; HR, 4.38; 95% CI, 1.26-15.29). Sex and grade 1 to 3 vesicoureteral reflux were not associated with risk of recurrence. Antimicrobial prophylaxis was not associated with decreased risk of recurrent UTI (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.50-2.02), even after adjusting for propensity to receive prophylaxis, but was a risk factor for antibimicrobial resistance among children with recurrent UTI (HR, 7.50; 95% CI, 1.60-35.17). Conclusion  Among the children in this study, antimicrobial prophylaxis was not associated with decreased risk of recurrent UTI, but was associated with increased risk of resistant infections.      

Anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress in Iranian survivors of chemical warfare

Context  In the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, extensive use of chemical weapons resulted in high rates of morbidity and mortality. While much is known about the physical consequences of chemical warfare, there is a paucity of information about the long-term effects of chemical attacks on mental health. Objective  To assess the long-term psychological impact of chemical warfare on a civilian population. Design, Setting, and Participants  Cross-sectional randomized survey conducted in July 2004 of 153 civilians in 3 towns exposed to warfare in northwestern Iran: Oshnaviyeh (low-intensity conventional warfare), Rabat (high-intensity conventional warfare), and Sardasht (both high-intensity conventional warfare and chemical weapons). Main Outcome Measures  Full or partial posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis, anxiety symptoms, and depressive symptoms were assessed using Farsi versions of the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale, Hamilton Scale for Anxiety, and Beck Depression Inventory, respectively. Results  Overall participation rate was 93%. Respondents had a mean age of 45 years and were all of Kurdish ethnicity. Among individuals exposed to both high-intensity warfare and chemical weapons, prevalence rates for lifetime PTSD, current PTSD, major anxiety symptoms, and severe depressive symptoms were 59%, 33%, 65%, and 41%, respectively. Among the low-intensity warfare group, the corresponding rates were 8%, 2%, 18%, and 6%, respectively, while intermediate rates were found among those exposed to high-intensity warfare but not to chemical weapons (31%, 8%, 26%, and 12%, respectively). Compared with individuals exposed to low-intensity warfare, those exposed to both high-intensity warfare and chemical weapons were at higher risk for lifetime PTSD (odds ratio [OR], 18.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.8-59.4), current PTSD (OR, 27.4; 95% CI, 3.4-218.2), increased anxiety symptoms (OR, 14.6; 95% CI, 6.0-35.6), and increased depressive symptoms (OR, 7.2; 95% CI, 3.3-15.9). Exposure to high-intensity warfare but not to chemical weapons was also significantly associated with lifetime PTSD (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.7-17.6), compared with those in the low-intensity warfare group. Further, compared with individuals exposed to high-intensity warfare alone, those exposed to both high-intensity warfare and chemical weapons were at higher risk for lifetime PTSD (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.5-7.4), current PTSD (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 2.0-20.1), increased anxiety symptoms (OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 2.5-12.6), and increased depressive symptoms (OR, 3.7; 95% CI, 1.8-7.2). Conclusion  Exposure to chemical warfare is an extreme traumatic event that has long-lasting adverse consequences on mental health.      

Mediterranean diet, lifestyle factors, and 10-year mortality in elderly European men and women: the HALE project

Context  Dietary patterns and lifestyle factors are associated with mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer, but few studies have investigated these factors in combination. Objective  To investigate the single and combined effect of Mediterranean diet, being physically active, moderate alcohol use, and nonsmoking on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in European elderly individuals. Design, Setting, and Participants  The Healthy Ageing: a Longitudinal study in Europe (HALE) population, comprising individuals enrolled in the Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly: a Concerned Action (SENECA) and the Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Elderly (FINE) studies, includes 1507 apparently healthy men and 832 women, aged 70 to 90 years in 11 European countries. This cohort study was conducted between 1988 and 2000. Main Outcome Measures  Ten-year mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. Results  During follow-up, 935 participants died: 371 from cardiovascular diseases, 233 from cancer, and 145 from other causes; for 186, the cause of death was unknown. Adhering to a Mediterranean diet (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68-0.88), moderate alcohol use (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.91), physical activity (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.55-0.72), and nonsmoking (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.57-0.75) were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HRs controlled for age, sex, years of education, body mass index, study, and other factors). Similar results were observed for mortality from coronary heart disease, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. The combination of 4 low risk factors lowered the all-cause mortality rate to 0.35 (95% CI, 0.28-0.44). In total, lack of adherence to this low-risk pattern was associated with a population attributable risk of 60% of all deaths, 64% of deaths from coronary heart disease, 61% from cardiovascular diseases, and 60% from cancer. Conclusion  Among individuals aged 70 to 90 years, adherence to a Mediterranean diet and healthful lifestyle is associated with a more than 50% lower rate of all-causes and cause-specific mortality.      

Rates of and factors associated with recurrence of preterm delivery

Context  Information about risk of recurrent preterm delivery is useful to clinicians, researchers, and policy makers for counseling, generating etiologic leads, and measuring the related public health burden. Objectives  To identify the rate of recurrence of preterm delivery in second pregnancies, factors associated with recurrence, and the percentage of preterm deliveries in women with a history of preterm delivery. Design and Setting  Population-based cohort study of data from birth and fetal death certificates from the state of Georgia between 1980 and 1995. Subjects  A total of 122,722 white and 56,174 black women with first and second singleton deliveries at 20 to 44 weeks' gestation. Main Outcome Measure  Length of gestation (categorized as 20-31, 32-36, or 37 weeks) at second delivery compared with length of gestation at first delivery, by age and race. Results  Most women whose first delivery was preterm subsequently had term deliveries. Of 1023 white women whose first delivery occurred at 20 to 31 weeks, 8.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6%-10.1%) delivered their second birth at 20 to 31 weeks and 20.1% (95% CI, 17.7%-22.8%) at 32 to 36 weeks. Of 1084 comparable black women, 13.4% (95% CI, 11.4%-15.6%) delivered at 20 to 31 weeks and 23.4% (95% CI, 20.9%-26.1%) delivered at 32 to 36 weeks. Among women whose first delivery occurred at 32 to 36 weeks, all corresponding rates were lower than those whose first birth was at 20 to 31 weeks; the rates of second birth at 20 to 31 weeks were substantially lower (for white women, 1.9% [95% CI, 1.7%-2.2%]; for black women, 3.8% [95% CI, 3.4%-4.2%]). Compared with women aged 20 to 49 years at their second delivery, women younger than 18 years had twice the risk of recurrence of delivery at 20 to 31 weeks. Of all second deliveries at 20 to 31 weeks, 29.4% for white women and 37.8% for black women were preceded by a preterm delivery. Conclusions  Our data suggest that recurrence of preterm delivery contributes a notable portion of all preterm deliveries, especially at the shortest gestations.      

Risk factors for parvovirus B19 infection in pregnancy

Context  Parvovirus B19 infection during pregnancy has been associated with fetal death. However, the incidence of and risk factors for infection in pregnant women have not been well studied. Objectives  To estimate a pregnant woman's risk of infection with parvovirus B19 in epidemic and endemic situations and to study risk factors for infection. Design  Population-based cohort study conducted between November 1992 and June 1994. Setting  Three regions in Denmark. Participants  A total of 30,946 pregnant women from a consecutive and population-based screening. Main Outcome Measures  Specific IgG antibodies in serum samples obtained in the first trimester of pregnancy and from the newborn infant to assess past infection and seroconversion. Information on family structure, educational background, socioeconomic status, and pregnancy outcome was obtained from national registers. Results  Based on 30,946 serum samples, 65.0% of pregnant women had evidence of past infection. Annual seroconversion rates among susceptible women during endemic and epidemic periods were 1.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2%-1.9%) and 13.0% (95% CI, 8.7%-23.1%), respectively. Baseline seropositivity was significantly correlated with increasing number of siblings, having a sibling of the same age, number of own children, and occupational exposure to children. Risk of acute infection increased with the number of children in the household as follows: 0 children odds ratio (OR), 1 (reference); 1 child OR, 3.17 (95% CI, 2.24-4.49); 2 children OR, 5.47 (95% CI, 3.55-8.45); 3 or more children OR, 7.54 (95% CI, 3.80-14.94). Having children aged 6 to 7 years resulted in the highest rate of seroconversion among mothers (6.8%; OR, 4.07; 95% CI, 1.89-8.73). Compared with other pregnant women, nursery school teachers had a 3-fold increased risk of acute infection (OR, 3.09; 95% CI, 1.62-5.89). Population-attributable risk of seroconversion was 55.4% for number of own children and 6.0% for occupational exposure. Conclusions  The risk of infection is high for susceptible pregnant women during epidemics and associated with the level of contact with children. Nursery school teachers have the highest occupational risk, but most infections seem to be the result of exposure to the woman's own children.      

Acute renal failure in critically ill patients: a multinational, multicenter study

Context  Although acute renal failure (ARF) is believed to be common in the setting of critical illness and is associated with a high risk of death, little is known about its epidemiology and outcome or how these vary in different regions of the world. Objectives  To determine the period prevalence of ARF in intensive care unit (ICU) patients in multiple countries; to characterize differences in etiology, illness severity, and clinical practice; and to determine the impact of these differences on patient outcomes. Design, Setting, and Patients  Prospective observational study of ICU patients who either were treated with renal replacement therapy (RRT) or fulfilled at least 1 of the predefined criteria for ARF from September 2000 to December 2001 at 54 hospitals in 23 countries. Main Outcome Measures  Occurrence of ARF, factors contributing to etiology, illness severity, treatment, need for renal support after hospital discharge, and hospital mortality. Results  Of 29 269 critically ill patients admitted during the study period, 1738 (5.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5%-6.0%) had ARF during their ICU stay, including 1260 who were treated with RRT. The most common contributing factor to ARF was septic shock (47.5%; 95% CI, 45.2%-49.5%). Approximately 30% of patients had preadmission renal dysfunction. Overall hospital mortality was 60.3% (95% CI, 58.0%-62.6%). Dialysis dependence at hospital discharge was 13.8% (95% CI, 11.2%-16.3%) for survivors. Independent risk factors for hospital mortality included use of vasopressors (odds ratio [OR], 1.95; 95% CI, 1.50-2.55; P<.001), mechanical ventilation (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.58-2.82; P<.001), septic shock (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.03-1.79; P = .03), cardiogenic shock (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.05-1.90; P = .02), and hepatorenal syndrome (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.07-3.28; P = .03). Conclusion  In this multinational study, the period prevalence of ARF requiring RRT in the ICU was between 5% and 6% and was associated with a high hospital mortality rate.      

Effect of estrogen therapy on gallbladder disease

Context  Estrogen therapy is thought to promote gallstone formation and cholecystitis but most data derive from observational studies rather than randomized trials. Objective  To determine the effect of estrogen therapy in healthy postmenopausal women on gallbladder disease outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants  Two randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials conducted at 40 US clinical centers. The volunteer sample was 22 579 community-dwelling women aged 50 to 79 years without prior cholecystectomy. Intervention  Women with hysterectomy were randomized to 0.625 mg/d of conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) or placebo (n = 8376). Women without hysterectomy were randomized to estrogen plus progestin (E + P), given as CEE plus 2.5 mg/d of medroxyprogesterone acetate (n = 14 203). Main Outcome Measures  Participants reported hospitalizations for gallbladder diseases and gallbladder-related procedures, with events ascertained through medical record review. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using intention-to-treat and time-to-event methods. Results  The CEE and the E + P groups were similar to their respective placebo groups at baseline. The mean follow-up times were 7.1 years and 5.6 years for the CEE and the E + P trials, respectively. The annual incidence rate for any gallbladder event was 78 events per 10 000 person-years for the CEE group (vs 47/10 000 person-years for placebo) and 55 per 10 000 person-years for E + P (vs 35/10 000 person-years for placebo). Both trials showed greater risk of any gallbladder disease or surgery with estrogen (CEE: HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.35-2.06; E + P: HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.28-1.97). Both trials indicated a higher risk for cholecystitis (CEE: HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.42-2.28; E + P: HR, 1.54; 95% CI 1.22-1.94); and for cholelithiasis (CEE: HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.48-2.35; E + P: HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.34-2.11) for estrogen users. Also, women undergoing estrogen therapy were more likely to receive cholecystectomy (CEE: HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.52-2.44; E + P: HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32-2.11), but not other biliary tract surgery (CEE: HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.68-2.04; E + P: HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 0.78-2.84). Conclusions  These data suggest an increase in risk of biliary tract disease among postmenopausal women using estrogen therapy. The morbidity and cost associated with these outcomes may need to be considered in decisions regarding the use of estrogen therapy.      

Analysis of observational studies in the presence of treatment selection bias: effects of invasive cardiac management on AMI survival using propensity score and instrumental variable methods

Context  Comparisons of outcomes between patients treated and untreated in observational studies may be biased due to differences in patient prognosis between groups, often because of unobserved treatment selection biases. Objective  To compare 4 analytic methods for removing the effects of selection bias in observational studies: multivariable model risk adjustment, propensity score risk adjustment, propensity-based matching, and instrumental variable analysis. Design, Setting, and Patients  A national cohort of 122 124 patients who were elderly (aged 65-84 years), receiving Medicare, and hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 1994-1995, and who were eligible for cardiac catheterization. Baseline chart reviews were taken from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project and linked to Medicare health administrative data to provide a rich set of prognostic variables. Patients were followed up for 7 years through December 31, 2001, to assess the association between long-term survival and cardiac catheterization within 30 days of hospital admission. Main Outcome Measure  Risk-adjusted relative mortality rate using each of the analytic methods. Results  Patients who received cardiac catheterization (n = 73 238) were younger and had lower AMI severity than those who did not. After adjustment for prognostic factors by using standard statistical risk-adjustment methods, cardiac catheterization was associated with a 50% relative decrease in mortality (for multivariable model risk adjustment: adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-0.52; for propensity score risk adjustment: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53-0.55; and for propensity-based matching: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52-0.56). Using regional catheterization rate as an instrument, instrumental variable analysis showed a 16% relative decrease in mortality (adjusted RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.90). The survival benefits of routine invasive care from randomized clinical trials are between 8% and 21%. Conclusions  Estimates of the observational association of cardiac catheterization with long-term AMI mortality are highly sensitive to analytic method. All standard risk-adjustment methods have the same limitations regarding removal of unmeasured treatment selection biases. Compared with standard modeling, instrumental variable analysis may produce less biased estimates of treatment effects, but is more suited to answering policy questions than specific clinical questions.      

The Effect of Raloxifene on Risk of Breast Cancer in Postmenopausal Women: Results From the MORE Randomized Trial

Context  Raloxifene hydrochloride is a selective estrogen receptor modulator that has antiestrogenic effects on breast and endometrial tissue and estrogenic effects on bone, lipid metabolism, and blood clotting. Objective  To determine whether women taking raloxifene have a lower risk of invasive breast cancer. Design and Setting  The Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE), a multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial, in which women taking raloxifene or placebo were followed up for a median of 40 months (SD, 3 years), from 1994 through 1998, at 180 clinical centers composed of community settings and medical practices in 25 countries, mainly in the United States and Europe. Participants  A total of 7705 postmenopausal women, younger than 81 (mean age, 66.5) years, with osteoporosis, defined by the presence of vertebral fractures or a femoral neck or spine T-score of at least 2.5 SDs below the mean for young healthy women. Almost all participants (96%) were white. Women who had a history of breast cancer or who were taking estrogen were excluded. Intervention  Raloxifene, 60 mg, 2 tablets daily; or raloxifene, 60 mg, 1 tablet daily and 1 placebo tablet; or 2 placebo tablets. Main Outcome Measures  New cases of breast cancer, confirmed by histopathology. Transvaginal ultrasonography was used to assess the endometrial effects of raloxifene in 1781 women. Deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism were determined by chart review. Results  Thirteen cases of breast cancer were confirmed among the 5129 women assigned to raloxifene vs 27 among the 2576 women assigned to placebo (relative risk [RR], 0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.44; P<.001). To prevent 1 case of breast cancer, 126 women would need to be treated. Raloxifene decreased the risk of estrogen receptor–positive breast cancer by 90% (RR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.04-0.24), but not estrogen receptor–negative invasive breast cancer (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.26-3.0). Raloxifene increased the risk of venous thromboembolic disease (RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.5-6.2), but did not increase the risk of endometrial cancer (RR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.2-2.7). Conclusion  Among postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, the risk of invasive breast cancer was decreased by 76% during 3 years of treatment with raloxifene.