Risk prediction models for survival after heart transplantation: A systematic review

Risk prediction scores have been developed to predict survival following heart transplantation (HT). Our objective was to systematically review the model characteristics and performance for all available scores that predict survival after HT. Ovid Medline and Epub Ahead of Print and In‐Process & Other Non‐Indexed Citations, Ovid Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials were searched to December 2018. Eligible articles reported a score to predict mortality following HT. Of the 5392 studies screened, 21 studies were included that derived and/or validated 16 scores. Seven (44%) scores were validated in external cohorts and 8 (50%) assessed model performance. Overall model discrimination ranged from poor to moderate (C‐statistic/area under the receiver operating characteristics 0.54‐0.77). The IMPACT score was the most widely validated, was well calibrated in two large registries, and was best at discriminating 3‐month survival (C‐statistic 0.76). Most scores did not perform particularly well in any cohort in which they were assessed. This review shows that there are insufficient data to recommend the use of one model over the others for prediction of post‐HT outcomes.     

Systematic review of enhanced recovery after gastro-oesophageal cancer surgery

Introduction

Fast track methodology or enhanced recovery schemes have gained increasing popularity in perioperative care. While evidence is strong for colorectal surgery, its importance in gastric and oesophageal surgery has yet to be established. This article reviews the evidence of enhanced recovery schemes on outcome for this type of surgery.

Methods

A systematic literature search was conducted up to March 2014. Studies were retrieved and analysed using predetermined criteria.

Results

From 34 articles reviewed, 18 eligible studies were identified: 7 on gastric and 11 on oesophageal resection. Three randomised controlled trials, five case-controlled studies and ten case series were identified. The reported protocols included changes to each stage of the patient journey from pre to postoperative care. The specific focus following oesophageal resections was on early mobilisation, a reduction in intensive care unit stay, early drain removal and early (or no) contrast swallow studies. Following gastric resections, the emphasis was on reducing epidural anaesthesia along with re-establishing oral intake in the first three postoperative days and early removal of nasogastric tubes.In the papers reviewed, mortality rates following fast track surgery were 0.8% (9/1,075) for oesophageal resection and 0% (0/329) for gastric resection. The reported morbidity rate was 16.5% (54/329) following gastric resection and 38.6% (396/1,075) following oesophageal resection. Length of stay was reduced in both groups compared with conventional recovery groups in comparative studies.

Conclusions

The evidence for enhanced recovery schemes following gastric and oesophageal resection is weak, with only three (low volume) published randomised controlled trials. However, the enhanced recovery approach appears safe and may be associated with a reduction in length of stay.     

可切除或交界可切除胰腺癌新辅助治疗+手术与直接手术治疗的临床对比

目的 探讨新辅助治疗+手术与直接手术治疗可切除或交界可切除胰腺癌的临床效果。方法研究对象为2016年1月至2018年12月期间在中南大学湘雅医学院附属株洲医院接受手术治疗的胰腺癌患者(n=60),通过术后展开随访调查,回顾性分析直接手术治疗(直接手术组,n=30)与新辅助治疗+手术治(联合治疗组,n=30)患者的临床疗效。结果 联合治疗组相较于直接手术组患者其术后生存率明显提高(χ²=3.880,P=0.049);联合治疗组患者术后1年及3年总体生存率分别为96.67%与80.00%,均较直接手术组的73.33%与53.33%更高,对比均有统计学差异(χ²=6.405,P=0.011;χ²=4.800,P=0.028);联合治疗组术后胰腺癌复发率及转移率分别为10.00%与43.33%,均较直接手术组的33.33%与70.00%更低,对比均有统计学差异(χ²=4.811,P=0.028;χ²=4.343,P=0.037);联合治疗组术后并发症发生率为26.67%,较直接手术组的...     

Adjuvant treatments for resectable pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer remains one of the most challenging malignancies to treat successfully. The majority of patients present with unresectable advanced-stage cancer, and only 20% of patients can undergo resection. Even if surgical resection is performed, the recurrence rate is high and the survival rate after surgery is poor. Therefore, effective adjuvant therapy is needed to improve the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer. Until now, no universally accepted standard adjuvant therapy for this disease has been available: chemoradiotherapy followed by chemotherapy is considered the optimal therapy in the United States, while chemotherapy alone is the current standard in Europe. However, recent randomized controlled trials (RTOG [Radiation Therapy Oncology Group] 9704; CONKO [Charité Onkologie]-001; and a Japanese study) have suggested a benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine for patients with resectable pancreatic cancer. This article will review the clinical trials of adjuvant therapy for this disease, including the results of recent trials.     

A systematic review of risk prediction models for perioperative mortality after thoracic surgery

OBJECTIVESGuidelines advocate that patients being considered for thoracic surgery should undergo a comprehensive preoperative risk assessment. Multiple risk prediction models to estimate the risk of mortality after thoracic surgery have been developed, but their quality and performance has not been reviewed in a systematic way. The objective was to systematically review these models and critically appraise their performance.Open in a separate windowMETHODSThe Cochrane Library and the MEDLINE database were searched for articles published between 1990 and 2019. Studies that developed or validated a model predicting perioperative mortality after thoracic surgery were included. Data were extracted based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies.RESULTSA total of 31 studies describing 22 different risk prediction models were identified. There were 20 models developed specifically for thoracic surgery with two developed in other surgical specialties. A total of 57 different predictors were included across the identified models. Age, sex and pneumonectomy were the most frequently included predictors in 19, 13 and 11 models, respectively. Model performance based on either discrimination or calibration was inadequate for all externally validated models. The most recent data included in validation studies were from 2018. Risk of bias (assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) was high for all except two models.CONCLUSIONSDespite multiple risk prediction models being developed to predict perioperative mortality after thoracic surgery, none could be described as appropriate for contemporary thoracic surgery. Contemporary validation of available models or new model development is required to ensure that appropriate estimates of operative risk are available for contemporary thoracic surgical practice.     

可切除或交界可切除胰腺癌新辅助治疗与优先手术疗效及安全性Meta分析

背景与目的：随着多学科治疗模式的发展及精准医学的兴起,新辅助治疗（NAT）可以改善非转移性胰腺癌的根治性切除率已基本达成共识,然而,由于缺乏结论性的随机对照试验,其在可切除及交界可切除患者中的作用仍有争议。因此,本研究通过Meta分析的方法比较可切除或交界可切除胰腺癌NAT后手术与优先手术两种治疗模式的有效性及安全性,为临床提供循证参考。方法：检索多个国内外数据库,搜集关于可切除或交界可切除胰腺癌NAT与优先手术的临床随机对照试验（RCT）,检索时限均从建库至2022年11月29日。应用Cochrane系统评价方法评价纳入研究,对同质研究采用RevMan 5.4软件进行Meta分析。结果：最终共纳入7个RCT研究,共计938例患者。其中NAT组466例,优先手术组472例。Meta分析结果显示,与优先手术组比较,NAT组R0切除率增加（RR=1.65,95%CI=1.35～2.02,P<0.000 01）,阳性淋巴结发生率降低（RR=0.67,95%CI=0.52～0.85,P=0.001）,手术切除率降低（RR=0.91,95%CI=0.84～0.98,P=0.02）,而中位生...     

Low lymphocyte monocyte ratio after neoadjuvant therapy predicts poor survival after pancreatectomy in patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer

BackgroundThe impact of systemic immune inflammatory markers to predict survival in patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy for borderline resectable pancreatic cancer has not been sufficiently investigated. This study aims to evaluate whether systemic immune inflammatory markers after neoadjuvant therapy followed by pancreatectomy become preoperative prognostic factors to predict survival in patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed 67 borderline resectable pancreatic cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy and 58 borderline resectable pancreatic cancer patients undergoing upfront surgery between 2010 and 2016. The association between survival and systemic immune inflammatory markers was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and prognostic nutrition index were assessed as systemic immune inflammatory markers.ResultsIn univariate analysis, the postneoadjuvant neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and prognostic nutrition index are significantly associated with survival as systemic immune inflammatory markers. The optimal cutoff value of the postneoadjuvant neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and prognostic nutrition index were 2.5, 3.0, and 45, respectively. Patients with a lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio <3.0 had significantly poor survival compared with those who had a lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio ≥3.0 (14.9 months vs 31.7 months, P = .006). The multivariate analysis identified the following as predictors of poor prognosis: postneoadjuvant lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio <3.0 (HR 2.59; 95% CI 1.02–6.58; P = .045), T4 (HR 1.82; 95% CI 1.11–3.01; P = .029), lymph node status (HR 2.62; 95% CI 1.24–5.51; P = .012), and no completion of adjuvant therapy (HR 7.09; 95% CI 3.08–16.4; P < .001).ConclusionA low lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio after neoadjuvant therapy is useful prognostic information for patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer. This result might indicate a potential role of lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratios in stratification of treatment strategy in borderline resectable pancreatic cancer patients.     

Factors influencing survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer

Eighty-nine patients with carcinoma of the head of the pancreas underwent pancreaticoduodenectomies. The actuarial 5-year survival for all 89 patients was 19%, with a median survival of 11.9 months. The 81 hospital survivors were analyzed in an effort to determine factors influencing long-term survival. Negative lymph nodes and the absence of blood vessel invasion both favored long-term survival. The strongest predictive factor was negative lymph node status with a median survival of 55.8 months, compared with 11 months with lymph nodes involved with tumor (p less than 0.05). Blood transfusions were also predictive, with patients receiving two or fewer units having a median survival of 24.7 months, compared with 10.2 months for those receiving three or more units (p less than 0.05). The most important determinant of long-term survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer is biology of the tumor (lymph node status, blood vessel invasion). However, performance of the resection (units of blood transfused) also appears to be an important factor influencing survival.     

可切除胰头癌的治疗进展

胰腺癌是消化系统中恶性程度最高的肿瘤,远期预后极差.胰腺癌中胰头癌所占比例最高,所以胰头癌的治疗是胰腺癌治疗中的重点.根治性胰十二指肠切除术是胰头癌患者得以治愈的希望,同时也是患者长期生存的最重要的治疗方式.选择恰当的手术方式及技巧可以提高肿瘤根治性切除的几率,降低术后并发症;再结合适时、适当的辅助治疗,可能会改善可切除胰头癌患者术后生存质量并延长生存期.     

Differences in survival for patients with resectable versus unresectable metastases from pancreatic islet cell cancer

Well-differentiated islet cell tumors can be associated with aggressive biology, resulting in early metastases to the liver. This study was carried out to determine whether survival for patients with malignant islet cell tumors and synchronous liver metastases is affected by complete surgical resection. Thirty-one patients with synchronous liver metastases from islet cell cancer underwent surgical exploration with the intent for complete tumor resection, and all patients underwent resection of the pancreatic primary. The patients were divided into two groups, those with resectable versus unresectable liver metastases. Twenty-six of 31 (84%) patients underwent complete resection of both the primary tumor and all liver metastases, and 5 (16%) patients underwent only complete resection of the pancreatic primary without liver resection. To extirpate the primary tumor, a pancreaticoduodenectomy was performed in 11 of the 26 (42%) completely resected patients and in 4 of the 5 (80%) incompletely resected patients, P = NS. The remainder of the patients underwent distal pancreatectomy. There were no statistical differences in primary tumor size, lymph node metastases, or adjuvant treatments between patients with resected and unresected liver metastases. The median overall survival for the completely resected group was 78 months, longer than the 17 months for the group with unresectable liver metastases (P = 0.06). Complete tumor resection (or the tumor biology that allows such complete resection) affords a survival advantage to patients with metastatic islet cell tumors of the pancreas. Patterns of liver metastases from islet cell tumors, specifically multiple bilobar metastases that are not amenable to resection and/or ablation, predict a poor outcome despite resection of the primary pancreatic tumor. Presented at the Thirty-Eighth Annual Meeting of The Pancreas Club, New Orleans, LA., May 16, 2004.     

Optimizing neoadjuvant radiotherapy for resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer using protons

Approximately 25% of patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer present with non-metastatic resectable or borderline resectable disease. Unfortunately, the cure rate for these "curable" patients is only in the range of 20%. Local-regional failure rates may exceed 50% after margin-negative, node-negative pancreatectomy, but up to 80% of resections are associated with regional lymph node or margin positivity. While systemic drug therapy and chemotherapy may prevent or delay the appearance of distant metastases, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on local-regional disease control. Preoperative radiotherapy would represent a rational intervention to improve local-regional control. The barrier to preoperative radiotherapy is the concern that it could potentially complicate what is already a long and complicated operation. When the radiotherapy is delivered with X-rays(photons), the entire cylinder of the abdomen is irradiated;therefore, an operating surgeon may be reluctant to accept the associated risk of increased toxicity. When preoperative radiotherapy is delivered with protons,however, significant bowel and gastric tissue-sparing is achieved and clinical outcomes indicate that proton therapy does not increase the risk of operative complications nor extend the length of the procedure.     

Preoperative chemoradiation in resectable pancreatic cancer

Despite advancements in the field of surgical oncology, the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer still carries a grave and dismal prognosis. Surgery alone for adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic head or uncinate process has a median survival time of 12 months. These grim statistics have led many to study the effects of combined multimodality therapy in the fight against pancreatic cancer. The long recovery time associated with pancreaticoduodenectomy has resulted in as many as 25% of patients unable to proceed with planned adjuvant therapy. For these reasons preoperative or neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT) has been evaluated. Preoperative CRT ensures that all eligible patients receive the benefits of multimodality therapy, and patients who manifest metastatic disease on restaging evaluations are spared the morbidity of an unnecessary laparotomy. Multimodality therapy appears to lengthen the survival duration in patients with pancreatic cancer. It also affords a selection advantage, in that patients with aggressive disease biology with advanced metastatic disease following CRT are spared the morbidity of surgery. Conversely, a limited subset of patients may even be downstaged, allowing for a potentially curative resection. In this article we review the current status of neoadjuvant chemoradiation in adenocarcinoma of the pancreas. We discuss its rationale in light of the reported strengths and weaknesses of postoperative adjuvant CRT. Received: March 20, 2002 / Accepted: April 15, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Offprint requests to: M.P. Callery     

重视对“可能切除的（borderline resectable）”胰腺癌的临床研究

胰腺癌在所有消化系统肿瘤中预后最差,其病死率在北美位居第4位,在我国也由过去的第20位上升为第7位。近年胰腺癌的发病率呈明显上升趋势,已成为较常见的消化道恶性肿瘤。手术切除仍为目前可能使胰腺癌病人获得治愈的唯一治疗方式,也是提高其生存率及改善其有限生存期内生活质量的主要手段。数十年来外科及相关学科的进步,使胰十二指肠切除的手术安全性及手术切除率有了较大提高,     

Systematic review of laparoscopic versus open surgery for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND: This study compares the efficacy and safety of laparoscopic surgery (LS) and open surgery (OS) for colorectal cancer. METHODS: An electronic search of the literature was undertaken to identify primary studies and systematic reviews. Information on the efficacy and safety of LS versus OS was analysed. A meta-analysis was conducted to examine long-term outcomes. RESULTS: A systematic review published in 2000 and 12 more recent randomized clinical trials were identified. Compared with OS, LS reduced blood loss and pain, and resulted in a faster return of bowel function and earlier resumption of normal diet. Hospital stay was up to 2 days shorter after LS. No significant differences between the techniques were noted in the incidence of complications or postoperative mortality. The time required to complete LS was significantly longer (0.5-1.0 h more). No significant differences were found between the two procedures in terms of overall mortality, cancer-related mortality or disease recurrence. CONCLUSION: LS takes longer than OS but offers several short-term benefits. However, complication rates are similar for both procedures and no differences were found in long-term outcomes.     

ASCO、NCCN临床实践指南关于可切除及可能切除胰腺癌诊治的共识与争议

胰腺癌是消化系统预后最差的恶性肿瘤之一,如何科学、规范地治疗胰腺癌一直是外科领域的热点问题。笔者围绕ASCO指南中的潜在可治愈胰腺癌和NCCN指南中的可切除和可能切除的胰腺癌治疗策略异同点进行讨论,主要包括初步评估、手术适应证、术前治疗、术后治疗、随访监测5个方面。