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1.
Objectives  To develop a simple decision tree for clinicians to decide between hospitalization and outpatient monitoring of adult dengue patients.
Method  Retrospective cohort study on all laboratory-diagnosed dengue patients admitted in 2004 to Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiological data were collected, and cases classified as dengue fever (DF) or dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) using World Health Organization criteria. To develop the decision tree, we used chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) with bi-way and multi-way splitting. The resulting trees were pruned to achieve the highest sensitivity with the shortest tree.
Results  In 2004, 1973 probable and confirmed adult dengue patients were admitted; DF comprised 1855 (94.0%) and DHF 118 (6.0%) of the cases. The best decision tree prediction had three branches, consisting of a history of clinical bleeding, serum urea, and serum total protein. This decision tree had a sensitivity of 1.00, specificity of 0.46, positive predictive value of 7.5%, and negative predictive value of 100%. The overall accuracy of the decision tree was 48.1%. The test sensitivity and specificity compared favourably with other predictive probability equations and sophisticated laboratory tests, and would prevent 43.9% of mild DF cases from hospitalization.
Conclusions  A simple decision tree is effective in predicting DHF in the clinical setting for adult dengue infection.  相似文献   

2.
BACKGROUND: Clinical manifestations of dengue vary in different areas of endemicity and between specific age groups, whereas predictors of outcome have remained controversial. In Brazil, the disease burden predominantly affects adults, with an increasing trend toward progression to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) noted. METHODS: A cohort of adults with confirmed cases of dengue was recruited in central Brazil in 2005. Patients were classified according to the severity of their disease. Associations of antibody responses, viremia levels (as determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction [PCR]), and serotypes (as determined by multiplex PCR) with disease severity were evaluated. RESULTS: Of the 185 symptomatic patients >14 years of age who had a confirmed case of dengue, 26.5% and 23.2% were classified as having intermediate dengue fever (DF)/DHF (defined as internal hemorrhage, plasma leakage, manifested signs of shock, and/or thrombocytopenia [platelet count, < or =50,000 platelets/mm3]) and DHF, respectively. The onset of intermediate DF/DHF and DHF occurred at a late stage of disease, around the period of defervescence. Patients with DHF had abnormal liver enzyme levels, with a >3-fold increase in aspartate aminotransferase level, compared with the range of values considered to be normal. Overall, 65% of patients presented with secondary infections with dengue virus, with such infection occurring in similar proportions of patients in each of the 3 disease category groups. Dengue virus serotype 3 (DV3) was the predominant serotype, and viremia was detected during and after defervescence among patients with DHF or intermediate DF/DHF. CONCLUSIONS: Viremia was detected after defervescence in adult patients classified as having DHF or intermediate DF/DHF. Secondary infection was not a predictor of severe clinical manifestation in adults with infected with the DV3 serotype.  相似文献   

3.
Martinique experienced a dengue outbreak with co-circulation of DENV-2 and DENV-4. In an emergency department-based study, we analyzed whether the clinical presentation and outcome of adult patients were related to serotype, immune status, or plasma viral load. Of the 146 adult patients who had confirmed dengue infection, 91 (62.3%) were classified as having classic dengue fever, 11 (7.5%) fulfilled World Health Organization criteria for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS), 21 other patients (14.4%) presented with at least one typical feature of DHF/DSS [i.e., internal hemorrhage, plasma leakage, marked thrombocytopenia (platelet count < or = 50,000 platelets/mm(3)) and/or shock], and 23 further patients (15.8%) had unusual manifestations. Four patients died. Severe illness was more frequent in patients with secondary dengue infection (odds ratio, 7.18; 95% confidence interval, 3.1-16.7; P < 0.001). Multivariate regression analysis showed that gastrointestinal symptoms and other unusual manifestations were independently associated with DENV-2 infection, whereas cough and DHF/DSS features were independently associated with secondary immune response. A high plasma viral load was associated with DENV-2 infection, increased serum liver enzymes, and with DHF/DSS features in patients presenting after the third day of illness. The most severe cases of dengue resulted from the combined effects of DENV-2 and secondary infection.  相似文献   

4.
In order to understand more about the epidemiology of DHF, a study of the type of dengue viruses and vectors under natural conditions was carried out. Mosquito vectors in the field and the serum of DHF patients in southern Thailand were examined. The two mosquito species are abundant and DHF incidence remains high in this region. Dengue viruses were examined in field-caught mosquitoes by RT-PCR technique. The mosquitoes were caught in 4 provinces: Krabi, Phuket, Phang-Nga and Surat Thani during the late dry season until the early rainy season in 2005. Three dengue serotypes (DEN-2, DEN-3, DEN-4) were detected in Ae. aegypti males and females, and 2 (DEN-2, DEN-3) were detected in Ae. albopictus females. Double infection with 2 serotypes of dengue viruses (DEN-2 and DEN-3) were detected in Ae. aegypti males and females and Ae. albopictus females. DEN-2 and DEN-1 were the most prevalent serotypes found in the serum of the patients in this area, followed by DEN-4 and DEN-3. The prevalence of the predominant dengue serotype varied from province to province. Detection of viruses in adult male mosquitoes reveals the role of transovarial transmission of dengue viruses in field populations of DHF vectors and elucidates circulation of dengue viruses in vectors in the natural environment of endemic areas. The incidence of multiple serotypes of dengue virus in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the same area points toward a high risk for an epidemic of DHF. These findings provide greater understanding of the relationship among mosquito vectors, virus transmission and DHF epidemiology in endemic areas.  相似文献   

5.
Immunity to a single dengue virus (DENV) infection does not provide heterologous immunity to subsequent infection. In fact, the greatest risk for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is with a second DENV serotype exposure. The risk for DHF with a third or fourth dengue infection relative to a first or second exposure is not known. An analysis of our database of children admitted to the Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health and Kamphaeng Phet Provincial Hospital with suspected dengue illness revealed that the number of dengue admissions caused by a third or fourth DENV infection was extremely low (0.08-0.8%). Once admitted, the risk for DHF relative to dengue fever was not different for those experiencing third or fourth DENV infections over those experiencing a second DENV infection. We document new dengue serotype infection sequences leading to DHF of 1-4, 2-3, 3-1, and 3-4.  相似文献   

6.
Dengue virus circulation and association with epidemics and severe dengue disease were studied in hospitalized children with suspected dengue at the Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health in Bangkok, Thailand, from 1973 to 1999. Dengue serology was performed on all patients and viral isolation attempted on laboratory-confirmed patients. Acute dengue was diagnosed in 15,569 children and virus isolated from 4,846. DEN-3 was the most frequent serotype in primary dengue (49% of all isolates), DEN-2 in secondary and in dengue hemorrhagic fever (37% and 35%, respectively). The predominant dengue serotype varied by year: DEN-1 from 1990-92, DEN-2 from 1973-86 and 1988-89; DEN-3 in 1987 and 1995-99; and DEN-4 from 1993-94. Only DEN-3 was associated with severe outbreak years. Our findings illustrate the uniqueness of each serotype in producing epidemics and severe disease and underscore the importance of long-term surveillance of dengue serotypes in understanding the epidemiology of these viruses.  相似文献   

7.
Studies on serotype-specific features of dengue and disease severity on adults are limited. We prospectively recruited adult febrile patients without alternate diagnosis to dengue from April 2005 to December 2011. Outcomes were defined using both the World Health Organization (WHO) 1997 and 2009 criteria; Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and severe dengue (SD). Infecting serotype was identified in 469 dengue-confirmed patients comprising 22.0% dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1), 57.1% DENV-2, 17.1% DENV-3, and 3.8% DENV-4. Cases infected with DENV-1 were more likely to present with red eyes whereas presence of joint pain and lower platelet count was associated with DENV-2 cases. After adjusting for potential confounders, DENV-1 was associated with both DHF (adjusted Relative Risk [aRR] = 1.74) and SD (aRR = 2.1) whereas DENV-2 had a lower risk of DHF (aRR = 0.5). DENV-1 genotype 1 and DENV-2 cosmopolitan were the predominant genotypes identified. Infecting dengue serotype and possibly genotype may play an important role in disease severity among adult dengue patients in Singapore.  相似文献   

8.
The impact of dengue on liver function was studied on fifty serologically confirmed dengue cases admitted to Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (HUKM). Twenty-five of these patients had classic dengue fever (DF) and 25 had grade 1 or 2 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). There were more (60%) DHF patients with hepatomegaly compared to DF (40%) but the difference was not statistically significant. Analysis of the liver profile showed that liver dysfunction was commoner in DHF compared to DF, indicating that the degree of liver impairment may be related to the severity of DHF. Hyperbilirubinemia was noted in 3 (12%) DHF and 2 (8%) DF patients. The mean (range) serum bilirubin was higher in DHF [14.2(5-50) micromol/l] compared to DF [10.9(5-30) micromol/l)] (p > 0.05). Elevated levels of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) were observed more frequently in DHF (20 and 12 patients respectively) compared to DF (16 and 8 patients respectively). Nine (36%) DHF and 6 (24%) DF patients had concomitant elevation of ALT and ALP levels. The mean (range) serum ALT levels were 109.3(23-325) U/l in DHF and 90.8(13-352) U/l in DF (p > 0.05). The mean (range) serum ALP levels were 102.2(15-319) U/l in DHF and 93.3(34-258) U/l in DF (p > 0.05). The ALT and ALP levels were significantly higher in DHF patients with spontaneous bleeding than those without bleeding (p < 0.05) None of the patients developed fulminant hepatitis. The immunoregulatory cells, which include the T (CD3), B (CD 19), CD4, CD8, CD5 and natural killer (NK) cells were significantly lower in DHF compared to DF patients (p < 0.05). However, the reduction in these cell counts did not correlate with the liver dysfunction seen in DHF patients. In conclusion, hepatomegaly and liver dysfunction were commoner in DHF compared to DF.  相似文献   

9.
The aim of this study was to determine whether there is an association between dengue infection and intestinal mucosal injury. Serum levels of intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP) were used as a specific marker for mucosal injury. The diagnosis of all patients was serologically confirmed by anti-dengue IgG or IgM. Serum I-FABP levels of 120 patients were determined and compared to those of 25 controls using ELISA. In order to investigate serum I-FABP among dengue patients, they were categorized into 5 groups according to disease severity: dengue fever (DF), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) grade I through DHF grade IV. The dengue patients had higher levels of serum I-FABP compared to 25 controls (408.0 +/- 499.3 vs 124.72 +/- 147.81 pg/ml, p=0.006). The patients with DHF grade IV had the highest levels of serum I-FABP, ALT, and AST compared to the other groups. However, there were no differences in serum I-FABP, ALT, and AST levels among patients with DF, DHF grade I, grade II, and grade III. Evidence of intestinal mucosal injury in patients with dengue infection was demonstrated. Patients with DHF grade IV had high serum I-FABP levels and had associated liver injury.  相似文献   

10.
The association between sex, nutritional status, and the severity of dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS), and immune status was investigated in 245 Vietnamese infants with predominantly primary infections with dengue virus. Male and female infants were at equal risk of developing DHF/DSS. However, infants of low height and weight for age were under-represented among DHF/DSS cases compared with 533 healthy baby clinic infant controls. Acute illness phase blood levels of selected cytokines (interferon-gamma and tumor necrosis factor-alpha) and serum levels of antibodies to dengue virus were elevated in the same range in male and female infants with DHF/DSS, as well as in infants with and without malnutrition.  相似文献   

11.
Dengue virus infection can cause mild dengue fever (DF) or severe dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Cytokines are believed to be involved in the pathogenesis of dengue infection. However, the role of the pro-inflammatory cytokine macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) in dengue infection is unclear. In this study, serum levels of MIF in adult dengue patients with different disease severity and clinical outcome were determined and compared with the levels of other cytokines, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-10, and interferon gamma (IFN-gamma), in the same patients. Serum levels of MIF, IL-6, and IL-10, but not IFN-gamma or TNF-alpha, were higher in all DHF patients who died than in DHF survivors and DF patients. We conclude that in addition to IL-6 and IL-10, elevated levels of serum MIF are a potential predictor of disease severity and clinical outcome in dengue patients.  相似文献   

12.
Before 1989, dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka was characterized by frequent transmission of all four dengue serotypes but a low incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). After 1989, cases of DHF dramatically increased. Here we present the results of epidemiologic studies conducted in Colombo, Sri Lanka before and after epidemic emergence of DHF in 1989. We compared the proportion of dengue cases among people with fever attending clinics from 1980 to 1984 and in 1997 and 1998 to determine if an increase in dengue transmission was associated with more DHF cases being reported. We also compared the relative distribution of dengue virus serotypes circulating in Colombo before and after the emergence of DHF. We detected no significant differences in dengue as a proportion of fever cases or in serotype distribution between the pre and post-DHF periods. We conclude that an increase in virus transmission or a change in circulating serotypes does not explain the epidemic emergence of DHF in Sri Lanka.  相似文献   

13.
This study compared the case fatality ratio (CFR) of dengue shock syndrome (DSS) patients admitted to Buri Ram Hospital, an area with CFR of 0.11, 0.43 and 0.23% in 2002, 2003 and 2004, respectively, to obtain a provincial model for dengue case management using the I. development of a special program for strengthening dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) case management (No deaths in DSS patients), II. a retrospective review of the medical records of dengue fever (DF), DHF and DSS patients referred to Buri Ram Hospital. We compared the data during the 3 periods of the implementation of this program. Data was statistically analyzed using chi2 or Fisher's exact test for categorical variables, one-way ANOVA for continuous data with normal distribution and Kruskal-Wallis test for nonparametric variables. The numbers of DF, DHF and DSS cases in Buri Ram were 1332, 1700 and 1630 person, respectively, during 2006-2008. The number of DSS patients increased after implementation of the program: 12.2, 51.2 and 47.22 for 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively, but the complications of the disease decreased. The CFR during 2006, 2007 and 2008 were 0.15, 0 and 0.06% (p > 0.05). The program for strengthening DHF case management did improve clinical outcomes in dengue patients after the implementation. The CFR in 2008 was only 0.06%, lower than the goal of the Ministry of Public Health (<0.13%). This program is still running, sustaining low CFR in dengue patients. It may be used as a model for other provinces in Thailand that have high dengue deaths.  相似文献   

14.
SETTING: Out-patient dispensary in Conakry, Guinea, West Africa. OBJECTIVE: To differentiate between pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and non-PTB diseases among 204 acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear-negative adult TB suspects. DESIGN: We derived scores from clinical, serological and radiological findings among PTB suspects aged > or = 15 years who, after having had three AFB-negative smears, were treated for 10 days with amoxicillin (AMX, 1.5 g/day). RESULTS: At the selected cut-off score from model 1 (clinical), sensitivity for PTB was 95%, specificity 40%, negative predictive value (NPV) 84%, and positive predictive value (PPV) 69%. Comparable values from model 2 (clinical + serological + radiological) were: sensitivity 99%, specificity 45%, NPV 97%, and PPV 71%. Results from AMX were better: sensitivity 92%, specificity 93%, NPV 94%, and PPV 91%. Of the 117 suspects who failed to respond clinically and radiographically to AMX and remained AFB smear-negative, 110 (94%) had PTB, confirmed either by positive culture (73 patients) or response to anti-tuberculosis treatment (37 patients). CONCLUSION: The clinical and radiographic response to AMX is better than derived scores at differentiating between PTB and non-PTB in TB suspects presenting to a dispensary in Guinea, a low HIV-seroprevalence country.  相似文献   

15.
Background: Among the many methods proposed to predict the presence of fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C are the indices models obtained from serum biochemical tests, the aspartate aminotransferase-toplatelet ratio index (APRI) and the Forns index (FI). Objective: To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the Forns index and APRI for predicting cirrhosis. Methods: We included 105 patients with chronic hepatitis C and a liver biopsy. The FI and APRI were calculated from the biochemical tests of each patient. Receivers operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to determine the best cutoff to discriminate between cirrhosis (F4), advanced fibrosis (F3-F4), and portal fibrosis (F1) according to the Knodell score. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed by obtaining sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for each of the indices. Results: ROC curves showed that the best cutoff for predicting cirrhosis (F4) for the FI is >7.64, with Sn 62.5% and Sp 91.8% (Area under the curve, AUC = 0.881), for advanced fibrosis (F3 - F4) the best cutoff value is >6.93 with Sn 42.9% and Sp 89.6% (AUC = 0.772). An APRI value of >1.74 was the best predictor for F4 with Sn 75% and Sp 82% (AUC = 0.799), and a cutoff value of >1.7 for predicting F3-F4 with Sn 47.6% and Sp 85.4% (AUC = 0.768). Conclusions: The results confirm the utility of both the FI and APRI for predicting advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.  相似文献   

16.
OBJECTIVES: To determine whether there are differences between blood pressure (BP) measured by the nurse (NBP), BP measured by the physician (PBP) and self-measured BP in treated hypertensive patients and, if found, to evaluate their clinical importance. METHOD: An observational study is carried out with hypertensive patients recruited from two village-based community health centres in Catalonia (Spain) serving an area with a total population of 2800 inhabitants. All patients treated for hypertension visiting the health centre on a specific day of the week and during the same timetable between October 2000 and May 2001 were included. RESULTS: The difference between physician-systolic BP and nurse-systolic BP was 5.16 mmHg (95% CI 2.62-7.7; p<0.001). The difference between physician-systolic BP and self-measured systolic BP was 4.67 mmHg (95% CI 0.89-8.44; p=0.016). The differences between nurse-systolic BP and self-measured systolic BP were not significant (0.49 mmHg; 95% CI 3.71-2.71; p=0.758). With regards to diastolic BP, no significant differences were found between the different ways of measurement. NBP gave the following values: sensitivity (Sn) of 92% and specificity (Sp) of 60%; positive predictive value (PPV) of 65.7% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 90% with a positive coefficient of probability (CP+) of 2.3 and a negative coefficient of probability (CP-) of 0.133. PBP gave the following results: Sn=72%; Sp=66.7%; PPV=64.3%; NPV=74.1%; CP+=2.16 and CP- = 0.420. CONCLUSION: Systolic BP measured by the nurse in treated hypertensive patients is significantly lower than the readings obtained by the physician, and are almost identical to ambulatory BP monitoring. Blood pressure determination by the nurse is desirable not only for diagnosis but also to evaluate the level of control of blood pressure during the follow-up of treated hypertensive patients.  相似文献   

17.
A prospective study of dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was conducted in a cohort of adult volunteers from two textile factories located in West Java, Indonesia. Volunteers in the cohort were bled every three months and were actively followed for the occurrence of dengue (DEN) disease. The first two years of the study showed an incidence of symptomatic DEN disease of 18 cases per 1,000 person-years and an estimated asymptomatic/ mild infection rate of 56 cases per 1,000 person-years in areas of high disease transmission. In areas where no symptomatic cases were detected, the incidence of asymptomatic or mild infection was 8 cases per 1,000 person-years. Dengue-2 virus was the predominant serotype identified, but all four serotypes were detected among the cohort. Four cases of DHF and one case of dengue shock syndrome (DSS) were identified. Three of the four DHF cases were due to DEN-3 virus. The one DSS case occurred in the setting of a prior DEN-2 virus infection, followed by a secondary infection with DEN-1 virus. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a longitudinal cohort study of naturally acquired DF and DHF in adults.  相似文献   

18.
19.
A prospective study of dengue infected patients at Dr.Soetomo Hospital pediatric ward was carried out from October 2008 to April 2009 to evaluate the revised dengue classification system proposed by the Dengue Control (DENCO), for early detection of severe dengue infected patients using the WHO classification system for comparison, with the addition of clinical interventions as a tool to grade for severity. One hundred forty-five patients were included in the study. Using the WHO classification system, 122 cases (84.1%) were classified as having non-severe dengue, of which 70 (48.3%) were classified as having dengue fever (DF), 39 (26.9%) as having dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) grade I, and 13 (9%) as having DHF grade II. Twenty-three (15.9%) were classified as having severe dengue, of which 16 (11%) were classified as having DHF grade III and 7 (4.8%) as having DHF grade IV. With clinical interventions included, 8 cases (6.6%) originally classified as having non-severe dengue infection were reclassified as having severe infection (sensitivity = 74%, specificity = 100%, likelihood ratio (-) = 0.26). Using the new dengue classification system, 117 cases (80.7%) were classified as having non-severe dengue infection, of which 79 (54.5%) were classified as having dengue without warning signs and 38 (26.2%) were classified as having dengue with warning signs, while 28 (19.3%) were classified as having severe dengue infection. Using clinical intervention, 4 cases (3.4%) which were originally classified as having non-severe dengue infection were reclassified as having severe dengue infection (sensitivity = 88%, specificity = 99%, likelihood ratio (+) = 98.88, likelihood ratio (-) = 0.13). Binary logistic regression showed the revised dengue classification system (p = 0.000, Wald:22.446) was better in detecting severe dengue infections than the WHO classification system (p = 0.175, Wald:6.339).  相似文献   

20.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate SMART, Medicos Dip Stick and an Institut Pasteur (IP) cholera dipstick tests for accuracy and ease of use. METHOD: Every 50th patient presenting with diarrhoea at ICDDR,B between 1 April 2003 and 30 November 2003 was enrolled. The rapid diagnostic tests were performed by field and laboratory technicians, and sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values calculated. RESULTS: We isolated Vibrio cholerae O1 from 116 (38%) of 304 patients. The Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of the SMART test were 58%, 95%, 84% and 84% for field technicians, and 83%, 88%, 83% and 88% for laboratory technicians. The Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of the IP dipstick test were 93%, 67%, 63% and 94% for field technicians, and 94%, 76%, 70% and 95% for laboratory technicians. The Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of the Medicos test were 84%, 79%, 71% and 90% for field technicians, and 88%, 80%, 72% and 92% for laboratory technicians. A high proportion of indeterminates (30%) hampered the performance of the SMART test. The IP dipstick had the highest Se, irrespective of technician skill level. CONCLUSION: The IP dipstick is the most appropriate rapid diagnostic assay for the detection of V. cholerae O1 in locations where the skill level of personnel may be low, such as remote areas or refugee camp settings. High cost may limit the utility of any diagnostic test in the developing world.  相似文献   

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