Evaluation of the impact of the heat wave in the summer of 2003 on mortality

The effect of the elevated temperatures experimented in Europe during the summer 2003 on mortality was observed in several countries. This study, carried out in Spain, describes the mortality between the 1st June and the 31st August and evaluates the effect of the heat wave on mortality. Observed deaths were obtained from official vital Registers of the capital city of the 50 provinces. Deaths from 107 randomly selected rural villages were also obtained from the same source. Observed deaths were compared with expected estimated applying a Poisson regression model to historical mortality series adjusting for the upwards trend and seasonality observed. Meteorological information was provided by the National Institute of Meteorology. Spain experienced three heat waves. Total excess deaths associated was 8% (43,212 observed compared with 40,046 expected). Excess deaths were only observed among 65 years old and over (15%). The increased mortality was also observed in rural villages. This phenomenon is becoming an emerging public health problem because of its increasing attributable risk because of the aging of Spanish population. Alert and response systems based on monitoring of climate related risks, emergency rooms activity and mortality and the strengthening of social and health services response capacity should be considered.     

Heat exposure in the Canadian workplace

Exposure to excessive heat is a physical hazard that threatens Canadian workers. As patterns of global climate change suggest an increased frequency of heat waves, the potential impact of these extreme climate events on the health and well‐being of the Canadian workforce is a new and growing challenge. Increasingly, industries rely on available technology and information to ensure the safety of their workers. Current Canadian labor codes in all provinces employ the guidelines recommended by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) that are Threshold Limit Values (TLVs) based upon Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). The TLVs are set so that core body temperature of the workers supposedly does not exceed 38.0°C. Legislation in most Canadian provinces also requires employers to install engineering and administrative controls to reduce the heat stress risk of their working environment should it exceed the levels permissible under the WBGT system. There are however severe limitations using the WGBT system because it only directly evaluates the environmental parameters and merely incorporates personal factors such as clothing insulation and metabolic heat production through simple correction factors for broadly generalized groups. An improved awareness of the strengths and limitations of TLVs and the WGBT index can minimize preventable measurement errors and improve their utilization in workplaces. Work is on‐going, particularly in the European Union to develop an improved individualized heat stress risk assessment tool. More work is required to improve the predictive capacity of these indices. Am. J. Ind. Med. 53:842–853, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Сardiovascular mortality during heat waves in temperate climate: an association with bioclimatic indices

The authors studied the relative predictive powers of several bioclimatic indices as predictors of population mortality during heat waves. Daily mean and maximum values of air temperature, Humidex, apparent, and physiological equivalent temperatures (PETs) were examined. The numbers of daily deaths and daily meteorological data in Rostov-on-Don (southern Russia) were used. The study period spanned April–September between 1999 and 2011. The eight selected bioclimatic indices were used to identify heat waves and calculate the expected increases in mortality during such events from Poisson generalized linear model of daily death counts. All of the bioclimatic indices considered were positively and significantly associated with mortality during heat waves. The best predictor was chosen from a set of similar models by maximization of relative mortality risk estimates. Having compared the relative increases and their significance levels in several cause- and age-specific mortality rates, the authors concluded that PET was the most powerful predictor.     

Heat exposure and socio-economic vulnerability as synergistic factors in heat-wave-related mortality

Heat waves may become a serious threat to the health and safety of people who currently live in temperate climates. It was therefore of interest to investigate whether more deprived populations are more vulnerable to heat waves. In order to address the question on a fine geographical scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the excess mortality in France associated with the European heat wave of August 2003 was analysed. A deprivation index and a heat exposure index were used jointly to describe the heterogeneity on the Canton scale (3,706 spatial units). During the heat wave period, the heat exposure index explained 68% of the extra-Poisson spatial variability of the heat wave mortality ratios. The heat exposure index was greater in the most urbanized areas. For the three upper quintiles of heat exposure in the densely populated Paris area, excess mortality rates were twofold higher in the most deprived Cantons (about 20 excess deaths/100,000 people/day) than in the least deprived Cantons (about 10 excess deaths/100,000 people/day). No such interaction was observed for the rest of France, which was less exposed to heat and less heterogeneous in terms of deprivation. Although a marked increase in mortality was associated with heat wave exposure for all degrees of deprivation, deprivation appears to be a vulnerability factor with respect to heat-wave-associated mortality.     

Housing, heat stress and health in a changing climate: promoting the adaptive capacity of vulnerable households, a suggested way forward

In many places extreme heat causes more deaths than floods, cyclones and bushfires. However, efforts to manage the health implications of heat and increase the adaptive capacity of vulnerable populations are in their infancy, requiring urgent attention from research and policy. This paper presents a case for research exploring the influence of social and contextual factors on vulnerable populations' capacity to adapt to heat in the context of climate change. We argue such research is imperative given current prioritization of short-sighted policy solutions such as installation and use of greenhouse-intensive domestic air-conditioners as moderators of heat stress. Globally, vulnerability to heat stress is most often assessed by epidemiological analysis of past morbidity and mortality data; yet a range of other factors need to be accounted for in interpreting and understanding these patterns of ill-health and loss of life, and further in determining how vulnerability is created, exacerbated and alleviated by broader societal conditions. Such factors include: the cooling technologies and infrastructures available to householders, practical knowledge about how to moderate heat stress, and social and cultural understandings of comfort and vulnerability. To investigate these factors, new methodologies are required. Social practice theory, which conceptualizes the dynamic interactions between individuals and wider systems of power, infrastructure, technologies, society and culture as components of practices such as household cooling, is presented as a way forward. The development of a practice-based methodology and conceptual framework to understand adaptation to heat will provide a multidimensional, systems-oriented understanding of how vulnerability can potentially be reduced.     

Mapping rural community and dairy cow heat stress in Southern Ontario: A common geographic pattern from 2010 to 2012

Climate change has increased the occurrence of heat waves, causing heat stress among humans and livestock, with potentially fatal consequences. Heat stress maps provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Weather data were collected throughout Southern Ontario, and the heat stress index (HSI) was estimated for 2010–2012. Geostatistical kriging was applied to map heat stress, heat waves, and control periods. Average HSI for each period ranged from 55 to 78 during control periods, and from 65 to 84 during heat waves, surpassing levels where morbidity is known to increase substantially. Heat stress followed a temporally consistent geographic pattern. HSI maps indicate high-risk areas for heat-related illness and indicate areas where agriculture and human health may be at increased risk in future.     

Impact of heat waves on mortality--Rome, Italy, June-August 2003

During June-August 2003, record high temperatures were reported across Europe; Italy was one of the countries most affected. To assess the impact of the summer 2003 heat waves on mortality, the Rome Local Health Authority analyzed temperature and daily mortality data for June-August 2003. This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which indicated that an estimated 1,094 excess deaths occurred during three major heat wave periods in 2003, an increase of 23% compared with the average annual number of deaths during 1995-2002. Improvements have been made in warning systems and prevention programs that target persons at high risk to reduce excess mortality during future heat waves.     

Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago

BACKGROUND: During the summer of 1999, Chicago's second deadliest heat wave of the decade resulted in at least 80 deaths. The high mortality, exceeded only by a 1995 heat wave, provided the opportunity to investigate the risks associated with heat-related deaths and to examine the effectiveness of targeted heat-relieving interventions. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study to determine risk factors for heat-related death. We collected demographic, health, and behavior information for 63 case patients and 77 neighborhood-and-age-matched control subjects and generated odds ratios (ORs) for each potential risk factor. RESULTS: Fifty-three percent of the case patients were aged <65 years, and psychiatric illness was almost twice as common in the younger than the older age group. In the multivariate analysis, the strongest risk factors for heat-related death were living alone (OR=8.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-48.1) and not leaving home daily (OR=5.8; 95% CI, 1.5-22.0). The strongest protective factor was a working air conditioner (OR=0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.7). Over half (53%) of the 80 decedents were seen or spoken to on the day of or day before their deaths. CONCLUSIONS: A working air conditioner is the strongest protective factor against heat-related death. The relatively younger age of case patients in 1999 may be due to post-1995 interventions that focused on the elderly of Chicago. However, social isolation and advanced age remain important risk factors. Individual social contacts and educational messages targeted toward at-risk populations during heat waves may decrease the number of deaths in these groups.     

泰安市结核病防治十年规划成本-效果与效益分析

目的 分析评价泰安市实施《结核病防治规划（2001~2010年）》的成本-效果与效益,为结核病防治工作的可持续发展提供参考。方法 按照《全国结核病防治规划（2001~2010年）》终期评估实施方案与细则,根据伤残调整寿命年（DALY）指标及成本效益分析方法,对泰安市投入的结核病防治社会成本与取得的效益和效果进行分析评价。结果2001~2010年,泰安市共登记活动性肺结核患者23 335例,其中因结核病死亡149例,涂阳患者成功治疗15 486例,涂阴患者成功治疗6 408例,估算全市减少肺结核患者死亡5 689例,避免感染104 449例,避免发病10 445例。全市投入的结核病防治社会总成本1 516.79万元,估算全市可减少医疗费用支出约711.57万元,共挽回的社会总价值约19.21亿元。每挽回1个伤残调整生命年（DALY）损失,政府仅需要投入约122元;政府每投入1元的结核病防治经费,可产生约127元的社会经济效益。结论 泰安市实施结核病防治十年规划社会经济效益显著。     

Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress

Human exposure to excessively warm weather, especially in cities, is an increasingly important public health problem. This study examined heat-related health inequalities within one city in order to understand the relationships between the microclimates of urban neighborhoods, population characteristics, thermal environments that regulate microclimates, and the resources people possess to cope with climatic conditions. A simulation model was used to estimate an outdoor human thermal comfort index (HTCI) as a function of local climate variables collected in 8 diverse city neighborhoods during the summer of 2003 in Phoenix, USA. HTCI is an indicator of heat stress, a condition that can cause illness and death. There were statistically significant differences in temperatures and HTCI between the neighborhoods during the entire summer, which increased during a heat wave period. Lower socioeconomic and ethnic minority groups were more likely to live in warmer neighborhoods with greater exposure to heat stress. High settlement density, sparse vegetation, and having no open space in the neighborhood were significantly correlated with higher temperatures and HTCI. People in warmer neighborhoods were more vulnerable to heat exposure because they had fewer social and material resources to cope with extreme heat. Urban heat island reduction policies should specifically target vulnerable residential areas and take into account equitable distribution and preservation of environmental resources.     

Heat-Related Morbidity in Brisbane,Australia: Spatial Variation and Area-Level Predictors

Background: Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of illness and death in many locations across the globe, including subtropical Australia. The possibility of increasingly frequent and severe heat waves warrants continued efforts to reduce this health burden, which could be accomplished by targeting intervention measures toward the most vulnerable communities.Objectives: We sought to quantify spatial variability in heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia, to highlight regions of the city with the greatest risk. We also aimed to find area-level social and environmental determinants of high risk within Brisbane.Methods: We used a series of hierarchical Bayesian models to examine city-wide and intracity associations between temperature and morbidity using a 2007–2011 time series of geographically referenced hospital admissions data. The models accounted for long-term time trends, seasonality, and day of week and holiday effects.Results: On average, a 10°C increase in daily maximum temperature during the summer was associated with a 7.2% increase in hospital admissions (95% CI: 4.7, 9.8%) on the following day. Positive statistically significant relationships between admissions and temperature were found for 16 of the city’s 158 areas; negative relationships were found for 5 areas. High-risk areas were associated with a lack of high income earners and higher population density.Conclusions: Geographically targeted public health strategies for extreme heat may be effective in Brisbane, because morbidity risk was found to be spatially variable. Emergency responders, health officials, and city planners could focus on short- and long-term intervention measures that reach communities in the city with lower incomes and higher population densities, including reduction of urban heat island effects.Citation: Hondula DM, Barnett AG. 2014. Heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia: spatial variation and area-level predictors. Environ Health Perspect 122:831–836; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307496     

基于脆弱性的高温热浪天气适应能力研究进展

政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告认为,由于全球变暖,世界许多地区已出现且将会出现越来越多的极端高温天气事件或热浪,这会给人群健康带来一系列的问题。该文对气候变化脆弱性适应能力的指标及应对高温热浪天气的经验与措施进行了归纳与总结,建议根据每个城市不同的脆弱性特征,研究针对不同侧重点的适应能力策略,增强高温热浪天气的适应能力。     

Toward a quantitative estimate of future heat wave mortality under global climate change

Background

Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality, and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively.

Objectives

We estimated the future excess mortality attributable to heat waves under global climate change for a major U.S. city.

Methods

We used a database comprising daily data from 1987 through 2005 on mortality from all nonaccidental causes, ambient levels of particulate matter and ozone, temperature, and dew point temperature for the city of Chicago, Illinois. We estimated the associations between heat waves and mortality in Chicago using Poisson regression models.

Results

Under three different climate change scenarios for 2081–2100 and in the absence of adaptation, the city of Chicago could experience between 166 and 2,217 excess deaths per year attributable to heat waves, based on estimates from seven global climate models. We noted considerable variability in the projections of annual heat wave mortality; the largest source of variation was the choice of climate model.

Conclusions

The impact of future heat waves on human health will likely be profound, and significant gains can be expected by lowering future carbon dioxide emissions.     

Project MotherCare: one hospital's response to the high perinatal death rate in New Haven,CT.

Starling national statistics indicate that New Haven, CT, is the seventh poorest city of its size, in terms of per capita income, in the United States. In 1989, it was reported to have the highest rate of infant mortality--18.5 infant deaths per 1,000 live birth--in the nation for a city with more than 100,000 people. Seventy-five percent of all perinatal deaths are attributed to low birth weight infants. Adequate prenatal care is a proven means of reducing this risk. To further compound the problem, substance abuse among pregnant women has increased dramatically. Census tract data revealed that many of the infant deaths were localized to several well-defined areas of the city. Forty-four percent of the infant deaths were ascribed to extreme immaturity or other causes related to low birth weight. Approximately 21 percent of the pregnant population had either no prenatal care or care was begun late--after the first trimester. The traditional avenues for prenatal care have been ineffective; an innovative approach, one that can be replicated, was initiated. The Hospital of Saint Raphael''s "Project MotherCare" embarked on an initiative to address these problems by reducing the access barriers to prenatal care regardless of insurance status or ability to pay. The mission was twofold: (a) to bring prenatal care to underserved neighborhoods of New Haven and (b) to identify the substance-abusing pregnant woman and deliver a continuum of services including prenatal care, counseling, social services, and referral to a drug treatment program.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

August 2003 heat wave in France: risk factors for death of elderly people living at home

The August 2003 heat wave in France resulted in many thousandsof excess deaths particularly of elderly people. Individualand environmental risk factors for death among the community-dwellingelderly were identified. We conducted a case–control surveyand defined cases as people aged 65 years and older who livedat home and died from August 8 through August 13 from causesother than accident, suicide, or surgical complications. Controlswere matched with cases for age, sex, and residential area.Interviewers used questionnaires to collect data. Satellitepictures provided profiles of the heat island characteristicsaround the homes. Lack of mobility was a major risk factor alongwith some pre-existing medical conditions. Housing characteristicsassociated with death were lack of thermal insulation and sleepingon the top floor, right under the roof. The temperature aroundthe building was a major risk factor. Behaviour such as dressinglightly and use of cooling techniques and devices were protectivefactors. These findings suggest people with pre-existing medicalconditions were likely to be vulnerable during heat waves andneed information on how to adjust daily routines to heat waves.In the long term, building insulation and urban planning mustbe adapted to provide protection from possible heat waves.     

Lung cancer risk assessment in relation with personal exposure to airborne particles in four French metropolitan areas

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to quantify the total number of lung cancer deaths attributable to chronic exposure to fine particles (pm2.5) among adult populations of four French urban populations (Grenoble, Rouen, Paris, and Strasbourg). METHODS: A geographic information system (GIS) was used to extrapolate personal average exposures to the total population of each metropolitan area across three sectors contrasted in terms of local sources of pollutants. We followed a health impact assessment approach by using the risk estimates in the CSP II study. RESULTS: The annual number of lung cancer cases attributable to pm2.5 chronic exposure ranged from 12 to 404 according to the city. Among these deaths, up to 60% occurred, in the Paris metropolitan area in the urban sector most exposed to traffic emissions. CONCLUSIONS: The health impact of chronic exposures to urban air pollution in metropolitan areas of developed countries warrants further efforts to abate sources of toxicants and to reduce exposure. Traffic emissions still contribute significantly to the total lung cancer burden in France.     

Vulnerability of indigenous health to climate change: a case study of Uganda's Batwa Pygmies

The potential impacts of climate change on human health in sub-Saharan Africa are wide-ranging, complex, and largely adverse. The region's Indigenous peoples are considered to be at heightened risk given their relatively poor health outcomes, marginal social status, and resource-based livelihoods; however, little attention has been given to these most vulnerable of the vulnerable. This paper contributes to addressing this gap by taking a bottom-up approach to assessing health vulnerabilities to climate change in two Batwa Pygmy communities in rural Uganda. Rapid Rural Appraisal and PhotoVoice field methods complemented by qualitative data analysis were used to identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health outcomes, describe determinants of sensitivity at multiple scales, and characterize adaptive capacity of Batwa health systems. The findings stress the importance of human drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity and the need to address social determinants of health in order to reduce the potential disease burden of climate change.     

Mortality in St. Louis,Missouri, during heat waves in 1936, 1953, 1954, 1955, and 1966: Coroner's cases

Information in the Coroner's Office and the Department of Health and Hospitals in St. Louis, Missouri, relating to the heat deaths reported during the heat waves in 1936, 1953, 1954, 1955, and 1966 has been summarized in a series of tables and graphs which, with brief comments, comprise this paper and do not lend themselves to further contraction.The numbers of deaths in July, 1966 which were considered by the Coroner of St. Louis City to be due to the effects of the heat provide a more reliable guide to the severity of the heat wave in terms of adult deaths than the statistics available from other official sources.     

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States

Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.