Cost-effectiveness of surgery for small abdominal aortic aneurysms on the basis of data from the United Kingdom small aneurysm trial

PURPOSE: Although the United Kingdom small aneurysm trial reported no survival benefit for early operation in patients with small (4. 0-5.5 cm) abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), the trial lacked statistical power to detect small but potentially meaningful gains in life expectancy, particularly for specific subgroups. We used decision analysis to better characterize the potential benefits and cost-effectiveness of early surgery. METHODS: We used a Markov model to assess the marginal cost-effectiveness (incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year [QALY] saved) of early surgery relative to surveillance for small AAAs, using data from the UK Trial. Subgroup analyses were performed by patient age and AAA diameter. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the effect of elective operative mortality on cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: In our baseline analysis, early operations provided a small survival advantage (0.14 QALYs) at a small incremental cost of $1510. Thus, despite a small survival benefit, early surgery appeared cost-effective ($10, 800/QALY). The small cost differential resulted from the large proportion of patients who underwent surveillance, who eventually underwent AAA repair, and therefore incurred the cost of the surgical procedures. The survival advantage and cost-effectiveness of early operation increased with lower operative mortality, younger age, and larger AAA diameter. CONCLUSION: Despite the negative conclusions of the UK trial, early surgery may be cost-effective for patients with small AAAs, particularly younger patients (<72 years of age) with larger AAAs (> or = 4.5 cm). Because the gains in life expectancy are relatively small, however, clinical decision making should be strongly guided by patient preferences.     

Should endovascular surgery lower the threshold for repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms?

PURPOSE: Because endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is less invasive, some investigators have suggested that this increasingly popular technique should broaden the indications for elective AAA repair. The purpose of this study was to calculate quality-adjusted life expectancy rates after endovascular and open AAA repair and to estimate the optimal diameter for elective AAA repair in hypothetical cohorts of patients at average risk and at high risk. METHODS: A Markov decision analysis model was used in this study. Assumptions were made on the basis of published reports and included the following: (1) the annual rupture rate is a continuous function of the AAA diameter (0% for <4 cm, 1% for 4.5 cm, 11% for 5.5 cm, and 26% for 6.5 cm); (2) the operative mortality rate is 1% for endovascular repair (excluding the risk of conversion to open repair) and 3.5% for open repair at age 70 years; and (3) immediate endovascular-to-open conversion risk is 5%, and late conversion rate is 1% per year. The main outcome measure in this study was the benefit of AAA repair in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The optimal threshold size (the AAA diameter at which elective repair maximizes benefit) was measured in centimeters. RESULTS: The benefit of endovascular repair is consistently greater than that of open repair, but the additional benefit is small-0.1 to 0.4 QALYs. For men in average health with gradually enlarging AAAs with initial diameters of 4 cm, endovascular surgery reduces the optimal threshold diameter by very little: from 4.6 to 4.6 cm (no change) at age 60 years, from 4.8 to 4.7 cm at age 70 years, and from 5.1 to 4.9 cm at age 80 years. For older men in poor health, endovascular surgery reduces the optimal threshold diameter substantially (8.1 to 5.7 cm at age 80 years), but the benefit of repair in this population is small (0.2 QALYs). CONCLUSION: For most patients, the indications for AAA repair are changed very little by the introduction of endovascular surgery. Only for older patients in poor health does endovascular surgery substantially lower the optimal threshold diameter for elective AAA repair.     

Abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture rates: A 7-year follow-up of the entire abdominal aortic aneurysm population detected by screening

Purpose: The goal of the current study was to identify the risk of rupture in the entire abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) population detected through screening and to review strategies for surgical intervention in light of this information. Methods: Two hundred eighteen AAAs were detected through ultrasound screening of a family practice population of 5394 men and women aged 65 to 80 years. Subjects with an AAA of less than 6.0 cm in diameter were followed prospectively with the use of ultrasound, according to our protocol, for 7 years. Patients were offered surgery if symptomatic, if the aneurysm expanded more than 1.0 cm per year, or if aortic diameter reached 6.0 cm. Results: The maximum potential rupture rate (actual rupture rate plus elective surgery rate) for small AAAs (3.0 to 4.4 cm) was 2.1% per year, which is less than most reported operative mortality rates. The equivalent rate for aneurysms of 4.5 to 5.9 cm was 10.2% per year. The actual rupture rate for aneurysms up to 5.9 cm using our criteria for surgery was 0.8% per year Conclusion: In centers with an operative mortality rate of greater than 2%, (1) surgical intervention is not indicated for asymptomatic AAAs of less than 4.5 cm in diameter, and (2) elective surgery should be considered only for patients with aneurysms between 4.5 and 6 cm in diameter that are expanding by more than 1 cm per year or for patients in whom symptoms develop. In centers with elective mortality rates of greater than 10% for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair, the benefit to the patient of any surgical intervention for an asymptomatic AAA of less than 6.0 cm in diameter is questionable. (J Vasc Surg 1998;28:124-8.)     

The cost-effectiveness of repairing ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND: Although advances in technology have reduced the operative risk of elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair, the surgical repair of ruptured AAAs is associated with a much poorer prognosis and a higher cost. Accordingly, it has been suggested that patients with predictably high rates of morbidity and mortality from ruptured AAA may not benefit from surgical intervention.Methods and Results: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed with the use of a Markov decision-analytic model to compute long-term survival in quality-adjusted life years and lifetime costs for a hypothetical cohort of patients with ruptured AAAs managed with either a strategy of open surgical repair or no intervention. Probability estimates for the various outcomes were based on a review of the literature. Average costs of (1) the immediate hospitalization ($28,356) and (2) complications resulting from the procedure were based on the average use of resources as reported in the literature and from a hospital's cost accounting system. Our measure of outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. For our base-case analysis, the repair of ruptured AAAs was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $10,754. (Society is usually willing to pay for interventions with cost-effectiveness ratios of less than $60,000; for example, the costeffectiveness ratios for coronary artery bypass grafting and dialysis are $9500 and $54,400, respectively.) In sensitivity analyses, the cost-effectiveness of repairing ruptured AAAs was influenced only by alterations in the operative mortality. If the operative mortality exceeded 88%, repair of ruptured AAAs was no longer cost-effective. As an independent variable, increasing age had no substantial impact on the cost-effectiveness, although it is reported to be associated with increased operative mortality. It was necessary that the patient's cost of the initial hospitalization for ruptured AAA exceed $195,000 before repairing ruptured AAAs was no longer cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that despite the high cost and poor outcomes, the surgical repair of ruptured AAAs is still cost-effective when compared with no intervention. The cost of repairing ruptured AAAs falls within society's acceptable limits and therefore should not be a consideration in the management of patients with AAAs.     

Selective management of abdominal aortic aneurysms in a prospective measurement program

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to clarify the treatment of patients with small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) less than 5 cm in diameter and those believed to be unfit for operation with AAAs 5 cm diameter or greater.Methods: Four hundred ninety two patients with AAAs less than 5 cm when first seen were entered in a prospective measurement program by ultrasonography or computed tomography scan (exclusively after 1988) every 6 months. A decision regarding operative fitness was made when the AAA was 5 cm. Patients then underwent operation if fit or continued follow-up if their AAA was larger than 5 cm but they were unfit. A further group of 91 patients with aneurysms 5 cm or greater when first seen but unfit for repair were entered in the prospective measurement program.Results: In the group with AAAs less than 5 cm at entry, operation was performed in 201 patients as a result of increase in AAA size to 5 cm or greater (157), AAA expansion of more than 0.5 cm in 6 months (24), or for other reasons (20). Of those with AAAs smaller than 5 cm at entry, 291 have not undergone operation at a mean follow-up of 42 months. Expansion was significantly related to aneurysm size at entry and was highest in the 4.5 to 4.9 cm group at 0.7 cm/year. In the group of patients deemed unfit for operation with 5 cm AAAs [as a graduate of the less than 5 cm group at entry (85 patients) or first seen with AAA greater than 5 cm (91 patients)], 10 ruptures have occurred. Of these patients with ruptured AAAs, six had AAAs between 5.0 and 5.6 cm.Conclusions: Because of the risk of rupture demonstrated in our series in AAAs 5 cm or slightly greater and the progressive increase in expansion to a mean of 0.7 cm/year in those AAAs between 4.5 and 4.9 cm at entry, recommendation for elective operation in patients with AAAs between 4.5 and 5.0 cm should be strongly considered in a fit patient. (J VASC SURG1996;23:213-22.)     

Use of sequential B-mode ultrasonography to manage abdominal aortic aneurysms

The utility and safety of sequential B-mode ultrasonography to treat male patients with small (less than 6.0 cm in diameter) abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) were studied retrospectively in 149 consecutive patients. Sixty-three of these patients have had operative repair of the AAA. Eight-six remain unoperated on. Mean growth rate was 0.79 cm/y (1.06 cm/y in the operated-on group and 0.36 cm/y in the unoperated-on group). Seven patients sustained rupture of the AAA during follow-up and 4 patients died as a consequence of elective repair, for a combined mortality rate of 7.4% (11/149). Only one AAA that was less than 5.0 cm ruptured. This has proved to be an effective way to manage AAAs in this population.     

In vivo analysis of mechanical wall stress and abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture risk

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to calculate abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) wall stresses in vivo for ruptured, symptomatic, and electively repaired AAAs with three-dimensional computer modeling techniques, computed tomographic scan data, and blood pressure and to compare wall stress with current clinical indices related to rupture risk. METHODS: CT scans were analyzed for 48 patients with AAAs: 18 AAAs that ruptured (n = 10) or were urgently repaired for symptoms (n = 8) and 30 AAAs large enough to merit elective repair within 12 weeks of the CT scan. Three-dimensional computer models of AAAs were reconstructed from CT scan data. The stress distribution on the AAA as a result of geometry and blood pressure was computationally determined with finite element analysis with a hyperelastic nonlinear model that depicted the mechanical behavior of the AAA wall. RESULTS: Peak wall stress (maximal stress on the AAA surface) was significantly different between groups (ruptured, 47.7 +/- 6 N/cm(2); emergent symptomatic, 47.5 +/- 4 N/cm(2); elective repair, 36.9 +/- 2 N/cm(2); P =.03), with no significant difference in blood pressure (P =.2) or AAA diameter (P =.1). Because of trends toward differences in diameter, comparison was made only with diameter-matched subjects. Even with identical mean diameters, ruptured/symptomatic AAAs had a significantly higher peak wall stress (46.8 +/- 4.5 N/cm(2) versus 38.1 +/- 1.3 N/cm(2); P =.05). Maximal wall stress predicted risk of rupture better than the LaPlace equation (20.7 +/- 5.7 N/cm(2) versus 18.8 +/- 2.9 N/cm(2); P =.2) or other proposed indices of rupture risk. The smallest ruptured AAA was 4.8 cm, but this aneurysm had a stress equivalent to the average electively repaired 6.3-cm AAA. CONCLUSION: Peak wall stresses calculated in vivo for AAAs near the time of rupture were significantly higher than peak stresses for electively repaired AAAs, even when matched for maximal diameter. Calculation of wall stress with computer modeling of three-dimensional AAA geometry appears to assess rupture risk more accurately than AAA diameter or other previously proposed clinical indices. Stress analysis is practical and feasible and may become an important clinical tool for evaluation of AAA rupture risk.     

Biomechanical properties of ruptured versus electively repaired abdominal aortic aneurysm wall tissue

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the biomechanical properties of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) wall tissue from patients who experienced AAA rupture with that of those who received elective repair. METHODS: Rectangular, circumferentially oriented AAA wall specimens (approximately 2.5 cm x 7 mm) were obtained fresh from the operating room from patients undergoing surgical repair. The width and thickness were measured for each specimen by using a laser micrometer before testing to failure with a uniaxial tensile testing system. The force and deformation applied to each specimen were measured continuously during testing, and the data were converted to stress and stretch ratio. The tensile strength was taken as the peak stress obtained before specimen failure, and the distensibility was taken as the stretch ratio at failure. The maximum tangential modulus and average modulus were also computed according to the peak and average slope of the stress-stretch ratio curve. RESULTS: Twenty-six specimens were obtained from 16 patients (aged 73 +/- 3 years [mean +/- SEM]) undergoing elective repair of their AAA (diameter, 7.0 +/- 0.5 cm). Thirteen specimens were resected from nine patients (aged 73 +/- 3 years; P = not significant in comparison to the electively repaired AAAs) during repair of their ruptured AAA (diameter, 7.8 +/- 0.6 cm; P = not significant). A significant difference was noted in wall thickness between ruptured and elective AAAs: 3.6 +/- 0.3 mm vs 2.5 +/- 0.1 mm, respectively (P < .001). The tensile strength of the ruptured tissue was found to be lower than that for the electively repaired tissue (54 +/- 6 N/cm2 vs 82 +/- 9.0 N/cm2; P = .04). Considering all specimens, no significant correlation was noted between tensile strength and diameter (R = -0.10; P = .55). Tensile strength, however, had a significant negative correlation with wall thickness (R = -0.42; P < .05) and a significant positive correlation with the tissue maximum tangential modulus (R = 0.76; P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that AAA rupture is associated with aortic wall weakening, but not with wall stiffening. A widely accepted indicator for risk of aneurysm rupture is the maximum transverse diameter. Our results suggest that AAA wall strength, in large aneurysms, is not related to the maximum transverse diameter. Rather, wall thickness or stiffness may be a better predictor of rupture for large AAAs.     

Conservative observational management with selective delayed repair for large abdominal aortic aneurysms in high risk patients

AIM: Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) larger than 5.5 cm should generally undergo elective repair. However, some of these patients have serious comorbid conditions, which greatly increase operative risk. This study evaluated the outcomes of nonoperative, observational management and selective delayed AAA repair in high-risk patients with large infrarenal and pararenal AAAs. METHODS: Among 226 patients with AAAs >5.5 cm, we selected 72 with AAAs 5.6-12.0 cm (mean 7.0 cm) for periods of nonoperative management because of their prohibitive surgical risks. Comorbid factors included a low ejection fraction of 15-34% (mean 22%) in 18 patients; FEV1 <50% (mean 38%) in 25; prior laparotomy in 10; and morbid obesity in 22. Follow-up was complete in the 72 patients for the 6-76 months (mean 23 months) that they were treated nonoperatively. Fifty-three patients ultimately underwent repair because of AAA enlargement or onset of symptoms after 6-72 months (mean 19 months) of observational treatment. RESULTS: Of the 72 selected patients, 54 (75%) are living and 18 (25%) are dead. Seven patients undergoing only nonoperative treatment presently survive after 28-76 months (mean 48 months). Of the 18 deaths, AAA rupture occurred in only 3 patients (4%) who had been observed for 12, 31, and 72 months before rupture. Nine other deaths (13%) occurred after 6-72 months from comorbidities unrelated to the patient's AAA. Six of the 53 patients undergoing delayed AAA repair died within 30 days of operation (11% mortality). The mortality for the 154 good risk AAA patients, who underwent prompt open or endovascular repair, was 2.2%. CONCLUSION: These data indicate that some patients with large AAAs and serious comorbidities are acceptably managed for long periods (6-76 months) by nonoperative means. Substantial delays of 12 to 76 months resulted in an AAA rupture rate of only 4%, while 13% of these patients (9 of 72) died of their comorbidities unrelated to AAA rupture or surgery and mortality in this group of patients, when operated on, was 11% (6 of 53). These findings support the selective use of nonoperative observational management in some patients with large AAAs and serious comorbidities.     

Expansion rates and outcomes for the 3.0-cm to the 3.9-cm infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm

OBJECTIVE: This study was performed for the determination of the expansion rates and outcomes and for recommendations for the surveillance of the 3.0-cm to 3.9-cm abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). DESIGN: The study was observational with data from patients screened with ultrasound scanning for AAA at five Veterans Affairs Medical Centers for enrollment in the Aneurysm Detection and Management Trial. The eligibility requirements included: AAA from 3.0 cm to 3.9 cm in diameter and at least one repeat ultrasound scan more than 90 days after the initial screening. Patients also completed a questionnaire for demographic data and the determination of the presence of risk factors associated with AAA. The study endpoints included: 1, both mean and median expansion rates; 2, moderate expansion (>4 mm/year); 3, no expansion; 4, all causes of death; 5, AAA rupture; 6, expansion to 4 cm or more; 7, expansion to 5.0 cm or more; and 8, operative repair. RESULTS: Ultrasound scan screening results identified 1445 patients with 3.0-cm to 3.9-cm AAAs. Seven hundred ninety men met the ultrasound scan criterion of having at least two ultrasound scan studies during the study period, and these 790 men were used for this study. Mean AAA size was 3.3 cm, with an average follow-up period of 3.89 +/- 1.93 years. The median expansion rate was 0.11 cm/year. Expansion rates were significantly different (P <.001) between 3.0-cm and 3.4-cm cm AAA and 3.5-cm and 3.9-cm AAA. There were no reported AAA ruptures during the study period, although cause of death data were available in only 43% of the patients. Few 3.0-cm to 3.9-cm AAAs expanded to 5.0 cm or more during the study period. The patients with 3.0-cm to 3.9-cm AAAs who underwent operative repair during the study period were younger, had larger initial AAA diameters, and had more rapid expansion rates. CONCLUSION: AAAs of 3.0 cm to 3.9 cm expanded slowly, did not rupture, and rarely had operative repair or expanded to more than 5.0 cm in our study of male patients. Expansion rates and the incidence rate of operative repair are more common in the 3.5-cm to 3.9-cm AAA when compared with the 3.0-cm to 3.4-cm AAA.     

Emergency surgery of non-ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The pain of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is believed to signify rupture, and emergency surgery for symptomatic AAA is a widely accepted practice to prevent rupture. To clarify the benefit of emergency surgery we evaluated the clinical course of emergency treated patients with non-ruptured AAAs. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 110 patients (90 men, mean age 69, range 49-93; 20 women, mean age 75, range 63-89) underwent emergency repair of non-ruptured AAA between 1970 and 1992 at the Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery of Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH). Survival rates after surgery were analysed using product-limit-survivorship method. The survival rates after age-stratification were compared with those of patients undergone elective surgery (n=599) or emergency surgery because of ruptured AAAs (n=363) during the same period. Risk factors affecting early and late survival rates after operation were analysed by logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Thirty-day operative mortality rates were 18 % (20/110) in the emergency non-ruptured group, compared with 7 % (42/599) in the elective group and 49 % (179/363) in the ruptured group (p<0.05). Thirty day survival rate was not changed among the nonruptured emergency group from 1970 to 1992, whereas the rates of ruptured and elective groups became better during the study period. Late survival rates for 30-day postoperative survivors were clearly reduced among the non-ruptured emergency group, without difference between the emergency operated ruptured and non-ruptured groups. Coronary artery disease was decreasing significantly early and late survival rates after emergency surgery for non-ruptured AAAs (p<0.05, logistic regression and p<0.001 Cox proportional hazard). CONCLUSIONS: Early and late mortality risk is significantly higher (p<0.001) after emergency surgery for haemodynamically stable non-ruptured AAA than after elective surgery, mainly because of coronary artery disease.     

Anatomic characteristics of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm on conventional CT scans: Implications for rupture risk

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to analyze anatomic characteristics of patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), with conventional two-dimensional computed tomography (CT), including comparison with control subjects matched for age, gender, and size. METHODS: Records were reviewed to identify all CT scans obtained at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center or referring hospitals before emergency AAA repair performed because of rupture or acute severe pain (RUP group). CT scans obtained before elective AAA repair (ELEC group) were reviewed for age and gender match with patients in the RUP group. More than 40 variables were measured on each CT scan. Aneurysm diameter matching was achieved by consecutively deleting the largest RUP scan and the smallest ELEC scan to prevent bias. RESULTS: CT scans were analyzed for 259 patients with AAAs: 122 RUP and 137 ELEC. Patients were well matched for age, gender, and other demographic variables or risk factors. Maximum AAA diameter was significantly different in comparisons of all patients (RUP, 6.5 +/- 2 cm vs ELEC, 5.6 +/- 1 cm; P <.0001), and mean diameter of ruptured AAAs was 5 mm smaller in female patients (6.1 +/- 2 cm vs 6.6 +/- 2 cm; P =.007). Two hundred patients were matched for diameter, gender, and age (100 from each group; maximum AAA diameter, 6.0 +/- 1 cm vs 6.0 +/- 1 cm). Analysis of diameter-matched AAAs indicated that most variables were statistically similar in the two groups, including infrarenal neck length (17 +/- 1 mm vs 19 +/- 1 mm; P =.3), maximum thrombus thickness (25 +/- 1 mm vs 23 +/- 1 mm, P =.4), and indices of body habitus, such as [(maximum AAA diameter)/(normal suprarenal aorta diameter)] or [(maximum AAA diameter)/(L3 transverse diameter)]. Multivariate analysis controlling for gender indicated that the most significant variables for rupture were aortic tortuosity (odds ratio [OR] 3.3, indicating greater risk with no or mild tortuosity), diameter asymmetry (OR, 3.2 for a 1-cm difference in major-minor axis), and current smoking (OR, 2.7, with the greater risk in current smokers). CONCLUSIONS: When matched for age, gender, and diameter, ruptured AAAs tend to be less tortuous, yet have greater cross-sectional diameter asymmetry. On conventional two-dimensional CT axial sections, it appears that when diameter asymmetry is associated with low aortic tortuosity, the larger diameter on axial sections more accurately reflects rupture risk, and when diameter asymmetry is associated with moderate or severe aortic tortuosity, the smaller diameter on axial sections more accurately reflects rupture risk. Current smoking is significantly associated with rupture, even when controlling for gender and AAA anatomy.     

Prognosis of patients turned down for conventional abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in the endovascular and sonographic era: Szilagyi revisited?

PURPOSE: The United Kingdom Small Aneurysm study has demonstrated the low risk of rupture in aneurysms less than 5.5 cm in diameter. With the advent of endoluminal techniques, patients considered unfit to undergo laparotomy are now considered for endovascular repair. However, the natural history of aneurysms larger than 5.5 cm remains uncertain, especially when severe comorbidity is present. In our center, we prospectively maintain records of all patients for whom elective aneurysm surgery was refused. This study documented the outcome of all patients referred with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) larger than 5.5 cm in diameter who were turned down for elective open repair and determined the cause of death and risk of rupture in all patients. METHODS: Details of all patients with AAAs from January 5, 1989, to January 5, 1999, were recorded, and demographic details on all patients with AAAs larger than 5.5 cm were collected. Copies of death certificates were obtained from the Office of National Statistics, local in-hospital patient records, and general practitioner records. Results of postmortem examinations were also obtained. Aneurysms were stratified according to their size at presentation (5.5-5.9 cm, 6.0-7.0 cm, and > 7.0 cm), and the reasons no intervention was made were documented. RESULTS: A total of 106 patients were turned down for elective aneurysm surgery in the 10-year period (10.6 per year). The mean age of the patients was 78.4 years (SD, 7.4), and 70 were men and 36 were women. At the end of the study, 76 patients (71.7%) had died. Overall, the 3-year survival rate was 17%. Patients with AAAs larger than 7.0 cm lived a median of 9 months. A ruptured aneurysm was certified as a cause of death in 36% of the patients with an AAA of 5.5 to 5.9 cm, in 50% of the patients with an AAA of 6 to 7.0 cm, and 55% of the patients with an AAA larger than 7.0 cm. Reasons given for not intervening were patient refusal (31 cases), the patient being "unfit for surgery" (18 cases), the "advanced age" of the patient (18 cases), cardiac disease (9 cases), cancer (9 cases), respiratory disease (6 cases), and other (15 cases). CONCLUSION: Although we recognize the problems with death certification, we found that rupture was a significant cause of death in patients with an untreated AAA that was larger than 5.5 cm. Although little difference in outcome was observed in aneurysms in the 5.5 to 7.0 cm size range, patients with an AAA that was larger than 7.0 cm seemed to have a much poorer prognosis.     

Technical advances with newer aortic endografts provide additional support to withhold the early endovascular repair of small abdominal aortic aneurysms until it is really needed

The idea of early endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) of "small" abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) has gained attention over "watchful waiting," mostly due to the concern for losing the anatomic suitability for endovascular repair over time. Generally, small AAAs have longer, smaller, less angulated necks, and less tortuous iliac arteries than larger ones. Though the borderline anatomic characteristics were assumed to be contraindications for older generation endografts, the modifications of modern devices seem promising to overcome those limitations, in order to treat the small AAAs when reaching the 5.5 cm threshold. Moreover, early endovascular intervention has been proven neither cost effective nor beneficial for the patients' quality of life. This article evaluates the technical progress that could overcome the difficulties of those small AAAs that present technically demanding anatomies, thus advocating endovascular intervention when they reach the diameter threshold.     

Prediction of rupture risk in abdominal aortic aneurysm during observation: wall stress versus diameter

OBJECTIVES: We previously showed that peak abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) wall stress calculated for aneurysms in vivo is higher at rupture than at elective repair. The purpose of this study was to analyze rupture risk over time in patients under observation. METHODS: Computed tomography (CT) scans were analyzed for patients with AAA when observation was planned for at least 6 months. AAA wall stress distribution was computationally determined in vivo with CT data, three-dimensional computer modeling, finite element analysis (nonlinear hyperelastic model depicting aneurysm wall behavior), and blood pressure during observation. RESULTS: Analysis included 103 patients and 159 CT scans (mean follow-up, 14 +/- 2 months per CT). Forty-two patients were observed with no intervention for at least 1 year (mean follow-up, 28 +/- 3 months). Elective repair was performed within 1 year in 39 patients, and emergent repair was performed in 22 patients (mean, 6 +/- 1 month after CT) for rupture (n = 14) or acute severe pain. Significant differences were found for initial diameter (observation, 4.9 +/-.1 cm; elective repair, 5.9 +/-.1 cm; emergent repair, 6.1 +/-.2 cm; P <.0001) and initial peak wall stress (38 +/- 1 N/cm(2), 42 +/- 2 n/cm(2), 58 +/- 4 N/cm(2), respectively; P <.0001), but peak wall stress appeared to better differentiate patients who later required emergent repair (elective vs emergent repair: diameter, 3% difference, P =.5; stress, 38% difference, P <.0001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting rupture were better for peak wall stress (sensitivity, 94%; specificity,81%; accuracy, 85% [with 44 N/cm(2) threshold]) than for diameter (81%, 70%, 73%, respectively [with optimal 5.5 cm threshold). With proportional hazards analysis, peak wall stress (relative risk, 25x) and gender (relative risk, 3x) were the only significant independent predictors of rupture. CONCLUSIONS: For AAAs under observation, peak AAA wall stress seems superior to diameter in differentiating patients who will experience catastrophic outcome. Elevated wall stress associated with rupture is not simply an acute event near the time of rupture.     

Cost-effectiveness of screening women for abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND: Women are usually not considered for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening because of their lower prevalence of disease. This position may, however, be questioned given the higher risk of rupture and the longer life expectancy among women. The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of screening 65-year-old women for AAA. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to obtain data of importance to evaluate the effectiveness of screening women for AAA. Data were entered into a Markov simulation cohort model. RESULTS: The review suggested some main assumptions for women with AAA. Prevalence is 1.1%. In 6.8%, the AAA is of a size that merits surgery, and the patients are fit for a procedure. For patients with an AAA, the yearly risk for elective surgery and the rupture incidence was 3.1% and 2.4%, respectively, in the invited group and 1.1% and 5.7% in the noninvited group. The operative mortality for elective surgery was 3.5%, and the total mortality for ruptured AAA was 86.3%. The long-term mortality for AAA patients was 3.6 times higher than for an age-matched healthy population. Screening reduced the AAA rupture incidence by 33% and the AAA-related death rate by 35%. The cost per life year gained was estimated at $5911. CONCLUSION: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was similar to that found for screening men, which reflects the fact that the lower AAA prevalence in women is balanced by a higher rupture rate. Screening women for AAA may be cost-effective, and future evaluations on screening for AAA should include women.     

The rupture rate of large abdominal aortic aneurysms: is this modified by anatomical suitability for endovascular repair?

BACKGROUND: There are no precise estimates of the rate of rupture of large abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). There is recent suspicion that anatomic suitability for endovascular repair may be associated with a decreased risk of AAA rupture. METHODS: Systematic literature review of rupture rates of AAA with initial diameter > or =5 cm in patients not considered for open repair, with stratification by size (<6.0 cm and 6.0+ cm), and gender, combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Proportional hazards regression to analyze factors (including gender, diabetes, initial AAA diameter, aneurysm neck, and sac lengths) associated with rupture in patients anatomically suitable for endovascular repair (EVAR 2 trial). RESULTS: Previous studies (2 prospective, 2 retrospective, and 1 mixed) were identified for meta-analysis and patients with elective repair excluded. The pooled rupture rates was 18.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.7-24.1] per 100 person-years. There was a 2.5-fold increase in rupture rates for patients with AAA of 6.0+ cm versus <6.0 cm, rupture rates = 2.54 (95% CI 1.69-3.85). The pooled rupture rates was nonsignificantly higher in women than men, rupture rates = 1.21 (95% CI 0.77-1.90). For EVAR 2 patients with 6+ cm aneurysms the rupture rates was 17.4 [95% CI 12.9-23.4] per 100 person-years significantly lower than the pooled rate from the meta-analysis, rupture rates = 27.0 [95% CI 21.1-34.7] per 100 person-years, P = 0.026. Patients with shorter neck lengths appeared to have a higher rupture rates than those with longer necks, but this was of borderline significance P = 0.10. CONCLUSIONS: Rupture rates of large AAAs reported in different studies are highly variable. There is emerging evidence that patients anatomically suitable for endovascular repair have lower rupture rates.     

Payer status is related to differences in access and outcomes of abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in the United States: Boxter LK,Dimick JB,Wainess RM,et al. Surgery 2003;134L:142-5

ConclusionThere were greater operative mortality rates in uninsured patients for both elective and emergent abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. Uninsured patients underwent treatment for ruptured AAAs more often than did patients with private insurance.SummaryThe authors studied whether patients with private insurance, compared with patients with Medicaid or no insurance, differ with respect to outcome of AAA repair and timely access to treatment of AAA.The national inpatient procedure diagnostic codes for AAA repair, intact and ruptured, were examined for 5363 patients younger than 65 years, from 1995 to 2000, with risk-adjusted analyses for access to AAA treatment and outcomes of repair. Dependent variables included in-hospital mortality, ruptured AAA, and intact AAA. Independent variables were comorbid disease, gender, age, race, payer status, and median income.Patients with no insurance or Medicaid were more likely to have AAA rupture (P < .001). Patients without insurance were at increased risk for rupture compared with patients with private insurance (odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.5; P < .001). Operative mortality rates appeared greater after elective AAA repair in patients with no insurance or Medicaid compared with patients with private insurance. Operative mortality rates were also higher after ruptured AAA repair in patients without insurance or Medicaid.CommentAdditional analyses are needed to determine whether patients without insurance or with Medicaid tend to avoid health care because of the financial burden or whether delayed access to surgical treatment results from gate-keeping issues or other deterrents to health care among patients with no insurance or Medicaid.     

Epidemiological study of the relationship between volume and outcome after abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery in the UK from 2000 to 2005

BACKGROUND: The aim was to assess the relationship between hospital volume and outcome after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery in the UK. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics (2000-2005) were classified as elective, urgent or ruptured AAA repair. Analysis was by modelling of mortality rate, complication rate and length of hospital stay with regard to the annual operative volume, after risk adjustment. RESULTS: There were 112,545 diagnoses, or repairs, of AAAs, of which 26,822 were infrarenal aneurysms. The mean mortality rate was 7.4, 23.6 and 41.8 per cent for elective, urgent and ruptured AAA repair respectively. Elective AAA repair undertaken at high-volume hospitals showed volume-related improvements in mortality (P < 0.001). Patients were discharged from hospital earlier (P < 0.001). The critical volume threshold was 32 elective AAA repairs per year. For urgent repair, patients at high-volume hospitals had a reduced mortality rate (P = 0.017) with an increased length of stay (P = 0.041). There was no relationship between volume and outcome for ruptured AAA repairs. CONCLUSION: Increased annual volumes were associated with significant reductions in mortality for elective and urgent AAA repair, but not for repair of ruptured AAAs.     

Nonoperative management with selective delayed surgery for large abdominal aortic aneurysms in patients at high risk

OBJECTIVE: An accepted fact is that abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) larger than 5.5 cm should undergo elective repair. However, subsets of these patients have serious comorbid conditions, which greatly increase operative risk. This study evaluated the outcomes of periods of protracted nonoperative observational management with selective delayed surgery in patients at high risk with large infrarenal and pararenal AAAs. METHODS: Among 226 patients with AAAs more than 5.5 cm, we selected 72 with AAAs from 5.6 to 12.0 cm (mean, 7.0 cm) for periods of nonoperative management because of their prohibitive surgical risks. Comorbid factors included a low ejection fraction of 15% to 34% (mean, 22%) in 18 patients, 1 second forced expiratory volume less than 50% (mean, 38%) in 25, prior laparotomy in 10, and morbid obesity in 22. Follow-up examination was complete in the 72 patients for the 6 to 76 months (mean, 23 months) that they underwent nonoperative treatment. Fifty-three patients ultimately underwent operation because of AAA enlargement or onset of symptoms after 6 to 72 months (mean, 19 months) of nonoperative treatment. RESULTS: Of the 72 selected patients, 54 (75%) are living and 18 (25%) are dead. Seven patients who underwent only nonoperative treatment presently survive after 28 to 76 months (mean, 48 months). Of the 18 deaths, AAA rupture occurred in only three patients (4%) who were observed for 12, 31, and 72 months before rupture. Nine other deaths (13%) occurred after 6 to 72 months from comorbidities unrelated to the AAA. Six of the 53 patients who underwent delayed operation died within 30 days of operation (11% mortality rate). The mortality rate for the 154 good-risk patients with an AAA who underwent prompt open or endovascular repair was 2.2%. CONCLUSION: These data indicate that some patients with large AAAs and serious comorbidities are acceptably managed for long periods (6 to 76 months) with nonoperative means. Substantial delays of 12 to 76 months resulted in an AAA rupture rate of only 4%, and 13% of these patients (nine of 72) died of comorbidities unrelated to AAA rupture or surgery. Mortality rate in this group of patients, when operated, was 11% (six of 53). These findings support the selective use of nonoperative management in some patients with large AAAs and serious comorbidities.