| 应用余弦模型对流脑预测的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘飚,李东明,杨天英,王素丽,郭玉铭,朱宝兰,郭雪. 应用余弦模型对流脑预测的研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2000, 15(1): 28-31. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2000.1.28 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘飚 李东明 杨天英 王素丽 郭玉铭 朱宝兰 郭雪 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南省柘城县卫生防疫站,476200;河南省卫生防疫站 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出的应用余弦模型对流脑月、年发病数进行的预测是定量预测方法,结果较为准确,有一定应用价值。为使预测值＞ ０ ,在ｒ≤０.５ 时,可直接计算,ｒ＞ ０.５ 时,需把原始数据转换成对数后再进行计算。同时,对在应用中应注意的其它一些问题进行了讨论。
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| 关 键 词： | 余弦模型 流脑 预测 |
Study on the Prediction of Epidemic Cerebrospinal Meningitis by Using Cosine Model |
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| Liu Biao. Study on the Prediction of Epidemic Cerebrospinal Meningitis by Using Cosine Model[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2000, 15(1): 28-31. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2000.1.28 |
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| Authors: | Liu Biao |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Sanitation & Anit-epidemic Station of Zhecheng County of Henan Province 476200 |
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| Abstract: | This paper discribed that using consine model predicted epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis case number per month or year was a rational prediction method, the result accuracy was better and had some practical value. In order to make the prediction value>0, if r value≤0.5 could be calculated directly, if r value>.05 the original data was neccesary to transform to Logarithm when the calculation was taken. |
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| Keywords: | Prediction Epidemic Cerebrospinal Meningitis Cosine Model |
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