| Abstract: | Background: Accurate statistics on the cancer burden are essential, both for purposes of research and forsetting priorities in healthcare management. So that in vast countries with partial registration coverage, suchas Iran, local data are more useful. We here estimated the incidence, prevalence and mortality time trend offour major cancer site, lung, stomach, breast and prostate, over the period 2001-2010 and provided short-rangeprojections to 2015 in Isfahan. Materials and Methods: Estimates were derived by applying the mortality-incidenceanalysis method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project incidence, prevalence and mortality ofchronic degenerative disease, starting from knowledge of mortality and relative survival information. Results:Age adjusted incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in Isfahan exhibited a clear upward trend for all four sitesduring the period 2001-2015, with marked increasees in prostate and breast predicted for the future. Differencein incidence trends between males and females might be attributable to the difference in risk factors specificto certain cancer sites, with smoking being the main risk factor. Conclusions: In this study, males and femalesdisplayed an increasing pattern for incidence and mortality rate over the entire study period until 2015. Thisinformation can be used as basis for planning healthcare management and allocating recourses in public health. |
