| 2019年3月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟玲,王大燕,陈涛,靳淼,马超,黎丹,洪志恒,涂文校,向妮娟,施国庆,李群. 2019年3月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2019, 34(3): 195-198. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2019.03.004 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟玲 王大燕 陈涛 靳淼 马超 黎丹 洪志恒 涂文校 向妮娟 施国庆 李群 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心，北京 102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的评估2019年3月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计3月突发公共卫生事件的报告数较2月有所上升，可能以水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病及手足口病等事件为主。 我国内地流行性感冒活动水平将继续下降，但仍会出现聚集或暴发疫情。 诺如病毒感染性腹泻可能在学校出现聚集或暴发疫情高峰。 风疹发病水平将持续上升。 刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情仍将持续发生，但输入我国的风险低。结论需要对流行性感冒予以重点关注，对诺如病毒感染性腹泻、风疹、刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。
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| 关 键 词： | 突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-03-15 |
Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,March 2019 |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Public Health Emergency Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China2.Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China3.Department of National Immunization Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China |
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| Abstract: | ObjectiveTo assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in March 2019.MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this meeting through video terminal.ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in March than in February 2019, which might be dominated by the epidemics of varicella, seasonal influenza, mumps, other infectious diarrheal diseases and hand foot and mouth disease. The activity of seasonal influenza would continue to decrease, but clusters and outbreaks would still occur. The incidence peak of diarrhea epidemics caused by norovirus in schools might occur. The incidence of rubella would continue to increase. Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo would continue, however, the risk of spread to China is low.ConclusionClose attention should be paid to seasonal influenza, and general attention should be paid to norovirus caused diarrhea, rubella and EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo. |
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