| 2018年9月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟玲,李昱,王锐,王霄晔,周红俊,任婧寰,黎丹,洪志恒,涂文校,施国庆,向妮娟. 2018年9月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(9): 711-714. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.09.003 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟玲 李昱 王锐 王霄晔 周红俊 任婧寰 黎丹 洪志恒 涂文校 施国庆 向妮娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心，北京 102206 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的评估2018年9月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果总体上，预计9月传染病疫情、突发公共卫生事件的事件数及病例数将较8月有所增加，其中登革热将进入高发期，特别是南方省份、水灾地区发生本地传播的风险加大；食物中毒事件仍处于高发时期，特别是学生人群、中秋和国庆两节期间的风险加大；流行性乙型脑炎（乙脑）仍有发生病例的可能；学校等集体人群手足口病、水痘、流行性腮腺炎、流行性感冒等传染病暴发风险将会增加；灾区水源性、食源性、媒介、动物源性和接触性传染病风险仍然存在。刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病输入我国的风险低。结论需要对登革热、食物中毒予以重点关注，对乙脑、自然灾害、刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。
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| 关 键 词： | 突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-09-20 |
Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,September 2018 |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Public Health Emergency Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China2.Division of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China3.National Immunization Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China |
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| Abstract: | ObjectiveTo assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in September 2018.MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of communicable diseases and public health emergencies would be higher in September than in August in 2018. The high incidence season of dengue fever would come, and the risk of its local transmission in southern provinces and flood-stricken areas would increase. It is still the high incidence season of food poisoning, and the risk in students and during the vacations of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day would increase. Japanese encephalitis might still occur. The risks of communicable disease outbreaks such as hand, foot and mouth disease, varicella, mumps and influenza occurred in schools would increase. Disaster affected communities are at high risks of waterborne, foodborne and vector-borne diseases as well as other contagious communicable diseases. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the mainland of China is estimated to be low.ConclusionClose attention should be paid to dengue fever and food poisoning, and general attention should be paid to Japanese encephalitis, the public health risk caused by nature disaster such as flood, and Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo. |
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