| ARIMA模型和ARIMA-GRNN模型在AIDS发病预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雅文, 沈忠周, 严宝湖, 杨银. ARIMA模型和ARIMA-GRNN模型在AIDS发病预测中的应用[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2018, 22(12): 1287-1290. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.12.020 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雅文 沈忠周 严宝湖 杨银 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京协和医学院公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100730;;;2. 中国医学科学院基础医学研究所, 北京协和医学院基础学院病原生物学系, 北京 100005 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京协和医学院2016年"青年教育学者计划"（2016zlgc0705） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探究适用于预测我国艾滋病月发病人数的模型，为艾滋病的预防提供参考。方法 收集2011年1月至2017年12月我国艾滋病月发病报告人数资料，建立自回归移动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型及广义回归神经网络（generalized regression neural network，GRNN）模型与ARIMA模型的联合。用2018年1月至5月艾滋病月发病数评估该模型预测效果。结果 艾滋病月发病数呈明显季节性，拟建立ARIMA（1，1，1）（0，1，1）12模型对我国艾滋病月发病报告数进行预测。建立ARIMA-GRNN模型的光滑因子为0.021。ARIMA-GRNN模型拟合及预测误差均低于ARIMA模型。结论 ARIMA（1，1，1）（0，1，1）12和ARIMA-GRNN模型均能较好地拟合并预测我国艾滋病月发病人数，但联合模型的效果更优。
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| 关 键 词： | 艾滋病 自回归求和移动平均乘积季节模型 广义回归神经网络 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-07-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-10-09 |
Application of ARIMA and hybrid ARIMA-GRNN models in forecasting AIDS incidence in China |
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| WANG Ya-wen, SHEN Zhong-zhou, YAN Bao-hu, YANG Yin. Application of ARIMA and hybrid ARIMA-GRNN models in forecasting AIDS incidence in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2018, 22(12): 1287-1290. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.12.020 |
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| Authors: | WANG Ya-wen SHEN Zhong-zhou YAN Bao-hu YANG Yin |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Public Health, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China;;;2. Department of Medical Microbiology and Parasitology, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences CAMS, School of Basic Medicine PUMC, Beijing 100005, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore a suitable model in forecasting monthly incidence of AIDS in China and offer some references for AIDS prevention. Methods The data was collected from January 2011 to December 2017 to build the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and hybrid ARIMA-generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model. The data from January to May 2018 was used to evaluate two models' forecasting performance. Result A strong seasonal variation can be seen and ARIMA(1,1,1) (0,1,1)12 was selected as the most suitable model to forecast the AIDS incidence in China. The smooth factor of hybrid model was 0.021. The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model had better fitting and forecasting performances than single ARIMA model. Conclusion Both of the two models were suitable in forecasting monthly incidence of AIDS and the hybrid model was better than single ARIMA model. |
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| Keywords: | AIDS ARIMA GRNN Forecast |
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