| 1990—2019年中国15岁以下儿童哮喘发病率和死亡率时间趋势及年龄-时期-队列效应分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈礼丽,周礼霞. 1990—2019年中国15岁以下儿童哮喘发病率和死亡率时间趋势及年龄-时期-队列效应分析[J]. 现代预防医学, 2022, 0(21): 3871-3876. DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202204251 |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈礼丽 周礼霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国人民解放军海军特色医学中心,上海 200050 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨1990—2019年中国15岁以下儿童哮喘发病率和死亡率的时间趋势，以及年龄、时期和队列效应贡献。方法 基于全球疾病负担研究2019数据，采用Joinpoint回归模型估计中国15岁以下儿童哮喘发病率和死亡率的年度变化百分比、平均年百分比变化，采用年龄-时期-队列模型估计年龄、时期和队列效应。结果 2015—2019年0～4岁组儿童的哮喘发病率最高，为1826.34/10万；1990—1994年0～4岁组儿童的哮喘死亡率最高，为0.64/10万。从1990—2019年，0～4岁组、5～9岁组、10～14岁组儿童哮喘死亡率平均年度变化百分比分别下降了10.75%、8.26%、7.36%,0～4岁组发病率平均年度变化百分比上升了0.30%,5～9岁组、10～14岁组分别下降了0.06%、0.08%。0～4岁组的发病、死亡风险最高；晚产队列发病风险更高，早产队列死亡风险更高。结论 1990—2019年，中国15岁以下儿童哮喘发病率稳定、死亡率显著下降，晚出生队列哮喘发病率的相对风险增加。应采取有效措施改善影响儿童哮喘发生的不良生活方式和环境因素，保护儿童尤其是5岁以下儿童免受哮喘的...
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| 关 键 词： | 儿童哮喘 年龄-时期-队列效应 发病率 死亡率 中国 |
Time trend and age-period-cohort effect of incidence and mortality of asthma in children under 15 years in China, 1990-2019 |
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| SHEN Li-li,ZHOU Li-xia. Time trend and age-period-cohort effect of incidence and mortality of asthma in children under 15 years in China, 1990-2019[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2022, 0(21): 3871-3876. DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202204251 |
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| Authors: | SHEN Li-li ZHOU Li-xia |
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| Affiliation: | Naval Medical Centre of People’s Liberation Army,Shanghai 200050, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the time trend of incidence and mortality of children under the age of 15 in China from 1990 to 2019, the contribution of age, period and cohort effect. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019, the annual percent change and average annual percent change of asthma incidence and mortality in children under 15 years of age in China were estimated by Joinpoint regression model. Age-period-cohort effect was used to estimate age effect, period effect and cohort effect. Results The highest incidence of asthma among children of 0-4 age group was 1 826.34/100 000 in 2015—2019. The mortality of asthma in children of 0-4 age group was the highest in 1990—1994, which was 0.64/100 000. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percent changes of asthma mortality in children aged 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 decreased by 10.75%, 8.26% and 7.36% respectively, and the average annual percent changes of asthma incidence increased by 0.30% in 0-4 age group, decreased by 0.06% in 5-9 age group and 0.08% in 10-14 age group, respectively. The relative risk of incidence rate and mortality rate was the highest in 0-4 age group. The late birth cohort had a higher risk of incidence rate and the early birth cohort had a higher risk of mortality rate. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of asthma in children under 15 years old in China has remained stable, and the mortality has decreased significantly. The relative risk of asthma incidence rate in the late birth cohort has increased. Effective measures should be taken to improve the adverse lifestyle and environmental factors affecting the occurrence of asthma in children, so as to protect children, especially children under the age of 5. |
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| Keywords: | Childhood asthma Age-period-cohort effect Incidence Mortality China |
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