| 捕获-再捕获方法在四川省彭州市全死因死亡漏报评价中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘伦皓,李娜,王丽艳,罗映娟,胡莹,裴晓迪,梁莉,刘莉. 捕获-再捕获方法在四川省彭州市全死因死亡漏报评价中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(7): 599-601. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.07.019 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘伦皓 李娜 王丽艳 罗映娟 胡莹 裴晓迪 梁莉 刘莉 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.四川省疾病预防控制中心, 四川 成都 610041 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 目的 应用捕获-再捕获方法估计2012-2013年彭州市全死因死亡率,评价死亡漏报情况,同时对应用效果进行评估。方法 从死因监测系统、乡镇计划生育办公室、村委会3个途径获取2012-2013年常住人口在彭州市的全死因死亡记录。在不同来源的数据记录之间,用姓名、姓名拼音字母、性别、出生日期、居住乡镇进行匹配。采用连接函数为对数(log)的线性模型对3个样本进行拟合,估计全死因死亡人数。结果 应用捕获-再捕获方法估计全死因死亡人数13 594人(95%CI:13 537～13 651),死亡率为1.77%,高于网报登记死亡率1.41%和合并样本死亡率1.68%。捕获-再捕获方法估计的死亡人数作为分母,计算3样本合并后的漏失率为5.29%;死因监测系统漏报率为20.37%,高于样本合并后的死亡人数作为分母的死因网报漏报率(15.92%)。结论 任何一个样本,死亡记录都不完整,即使3个样本合并后仍然存在漏失的情况,捕获-再捕获方法可以用来校正由于死因监测系统漏报造成的误差,更准确地评价实际死亡水平。
|
| 关 键 词： | 捕获-再捕获 死亡率 漏报率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-01-29 |
Application of capture and re-capture strategy in evaluation of underreporting of all death cause mortality in Pengzhou,Sichuan |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, China2.Pengzhou Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Pengzhou 611930, Sichuan, China3.Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Objective To understand the underreporting of all death cause mortality in Pengzhou, Sichuan province, from 2012 to 2013. Methods The all death cause mortality data among the local residents during this period were collected from local death cause surveillance system, township family planning offices and village committees. in Pengzhou the data from different sources were matched with the names, name's phonetic letters, sex, date of birth and living address of death cases. Log-liner model was used for fitting the data from 3 sources to estimate the all death cause mortality. Results By using capture and recapture strategy, it was estimated the all death cause mortality was 13 594 (95% CI: 13 537-13 651), and the mortality rate was 1.77%, higher than that in death cause registry (1.41%) and the average of samples (1.68%). By using the mortality estimated by capture and recapture strategy as denominator, the underreporting rate of average samples was 5.29%; the underreporting rate of death cause surveillance was 20.37%, higher than the rate (15.92%) by using average samples as denominator. Conclusion Any samples of death are incomplete, even three samples were used, the underreporting still exists. Capture recapture method can be used to correct the error caused by underreporting death by death surveillance system, and the number of death can be estimated more accurately. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《疾病监测》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《疾病监测》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
