| 鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病监测预警指标体系的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 范文燕, 赵颀涵, 吴金灿, 黄邵鑫, 王晓波, 汪鑫. 鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病监测预警指标体系的研究[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(4): 421-425. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.04.011 |
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| 作者姓名： | 范文燕 赵颀涵 吴金灿 黄邵鑫 王晓波 汪鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.332000 九江, 九江学院基础医学院社会医学与公共卫生学教研室;;2.332000 九江, 九江学院鄱阳湖生态经济研究中心血吸虫病研究室;;3.332000 九江, 九江市疾病预防控制中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目71463030 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 构建科学合理、可操作性强的血吸虫病监测预警指标体系，为促进鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病预警系统的科学化与规范化提供参考依据。 方法 采用专家咨询法(Delphi method)构建指标体系，结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process，AHP)和改进的比例分配法确定指标权重。通过实证研究对指标体系的信度、效度和权重设置的合理性进行评价。 结果 鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病监测预警指标体系包括3个一级指标、9个二级指标和35个三级指标。一级指标"疫情现状"、"自然和社会因素"、"防控措施"的归一化权重分别为0.531 0、0.101 5和0.367 5。二级指标中，"人畜感染现状"的组合权重最高(0.179 5)，"社会因素"的组合权重最低(0.050 6)。实证研究中，总指标体系和一级指标的Cronbach α信度系数及分半信度系数均>0.90，指标的综合评分与重要程度评分的一致性检验显示Kendall协调系数为0.742(P=0.018)。 结论 监测预警指标体系符合血吸虫病疫情现状，具有良好的信度和效度，权重设置合理。
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| 关 键 词： | 鄱阳湖生态经济区 血吸虫病 监测预警指标体系 专家咨询法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-10-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-12-26 |
Study on monitoring and early warning index system for schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake eco-economic region |
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| FAN Wen-yan, ZHAO Xin-han, WU Jin-can, HUANG Shao-xin, WANG Xiao-bo, WANG Xin. Study on monitoring and early warning index system for schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake eco-economic region[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2019, 23(4): 421-425. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.04.011 |
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| Authors: | FAN Wen-yan ZHAO Xin-han WU Jin-can HUANG Shao-xin WANG Xiao-bo WANG Xin |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, School of Basic Medical Science, Jiujiang University, Jiujiang 332000, China;;2. Research Laboratory of Schistosomiasis of Poyang Lake Eco-economy Research Center, Jiujiang University, Jiujiang 332000, China;;3. Institute of Schistosomiasis and Other Endemic Diseases Control, Jiujiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiujiang 332000, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To establish a scientific, operational monitoring and early warning index system for schistosomiasis, so as to provide scientific evidence for promoting the scientification and standardization of early warning system in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region. Methods Two rounds of Delphi experts' interviews were applied to construct Index system. The weight value of each indicator was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy process and improvable proportionate allocation method. Reliability, validity of index system and the rationality of index weight distribution can be evaluated in site investigation. Results The Index system included 3 first-order indicators, 9 second-order indicators, and 35 third-order indicators. The 3 first-order indicators were endemic status, environmental and social factors, control measures, with the weight value of 0.531 0, 0.101 5 and 0.367 5, respectively. For the 9 second-order indicators, the highest weight value was for Infection status of human and livestock (0.179 5)and the lowest for social factors(0.050 6). During site investigation, the Cronbach's alpha and spit half reliability of the total index system and three first-order indicators were all over 0.90, the Kendall W coefficient for the data collected in site investigation and Delphi consultation was 0.742 (P=0.018). Conclusions The Monitoring and Early Warning Index System for Schistosomiasis is suitable for the infection status of Poyang Lake Eco-economic region. The reliability and validity of index system are satisfactory, and the indicator weight distribution is rational. |
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| Keywords: | Poyang lake eco-economic region Schistosomiasis Monitoring and early warning index system Delphi method |
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