| 脑外伤患者预后预测模型的建立及验证 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁方,丁军,郭衍,高文伟,王敢,陈世文,陈浩,田恒力. 脑外伤患者预后预测模型的建立及验证[J]. 上海交通大学学报(医学版), 2011, 31(11): 1592-1598. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2011.11.019 |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁方 丁军 郭衍 高文伟 王敢 陈世文 陈浩 田恒力 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学附属第六人民医院神经外科,上海,200233 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科委重点项目(10JC1412500)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 目的建立并验证预测脑外伤患者30 d内死亡率及6个月预后不良率的预测模型。方法收集1 016例中重度脑外伤患者临床资料用作预测模型建立数据。系统分析入院相关危险因素与预后关系,Logistic回归建立不同的预测模型,通过拟合优度检验和计算C统计值(ROC曲线下面积)观察模型性能。内、外部验证模型并最终确定预测模型,开发脑外伤患者预后预测工具。结果 Logistic回归分析表明高龄、瞳孔对光反射消失、运动GCS评分下降、异常CT特征和异常常规实验室检查是脑外伤患者预后不良的独立危险因素。基于入院危险因素建立的预测模型性能良好(拟合优度检验P>0.05,C统计值0.709～0.882)。内部验证表明模型无过度乐观,外部验证证实预测模型外部适用性强(拟合优度检验P>0.05,C统计值0.844～0.992)。结论建立的预测模型可以早期、简单且准确地预测脑外伤患者的预后,脑外伤患者预后预测工具可用于临床辅助临床决策的制定。
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| 关 键 词： | 预测模型 预测 脑外伤 验证 预后 |
Development and validation of prognostic models for patients with traumatic brain injury |
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| YUAN Fang,DING Jun,GUO Yan,GAO Wen-wei,WANG Gan,CHEN Shi-wen,CHEN Hao,TIAN Heng-li. Development and validation of prognostic models for patients with traumatic brain injury[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University:Medical Science, 2011, 31(11): 1592-1598. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2011.11.019 |
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| Authors: | YUAN Fang DING Jun GUO Yan GAO Wen-wei WANG Gan CHEN Shi-wen CHEN Hao TIAN Heng-li |
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| Affiliation: | YUAN Fang,DING Jun,GUO Yan,GAO Wen-wei,WANG Gan,CHEN Shi-wen,CHEN Hao,TIAN Heng-li(Department of Neurosurgery,the Sixth People's Hospital,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200233,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To develop and validate prognostic models for mortality within 30 d after traumatic brain injury and for 6-month unfavorable prognosis after traumatic brain injury.Methods The clinical data of 1 016 patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury were collected to develop prognostic models.The relationship between admission-related risk factors and prognosis was systematically analysed,different prognostic models were established with Logistic regression analysis,and the performance of the... |
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| Keywords: | prognostic model prediction traumatic brain injury validation prognosis |
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