| 基于Joinpoint回归和年龄-时期-队列模型分析中国皮肤癌的长期发病趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈东宇, 杨晓雨, 王红心, 樊文龙, 何玉清. 基于Joinpoint回归和年龄-时期-队列模型分析中国皮肤癌的长期发病趋势[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2022, 26(7): 756-765. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈东宇 杨晓雨 王红心 樊文龙 何玉清 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.523808 东莞，广东医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，广东医科大学医学系统生物学研究所;;2.523400 东莞，东莞市寮步医院皮肤科 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金81773312广东省自然科学基金2015A030313517广东省“扬帆计划引进紧缺拔尖”人才项目201433005东莞市社会发展科技重点项目20211800905552 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 分析中国皮肤癌的发病趋势并分别估计其年龄、时期、队列效应。方法 从2019年全球疾病负担研究中估计中国皮肤癌发病率的变化趋势。采用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析年度变化百分比和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)；利用年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期和出生队列效应对皮肤癌发病率的影响。结果 1990―2019年中国皮肤癌男性和女性年龄标准化发病率均上升。Joinpoint回归分析模型分析显示皮肤恶性黑色素瘤男性AAPC为2.8%(95% CI: 2.6~3.0)，女性AAPC为3.0%(95% CI: 2.8~3.2)；基底细胞癌男性AAPC为4.2%(95% CI: 3.9~4.4)，女性AAPC为4.0%(95% CI: 3.7~4.3)；鳞状细胞癌男性AAPC为3.7%(95% CI: 3.5~3.9)，女性AAPC为2.9%(95% CI: 2.7~3.0)。此外，年龄-时期-队列模型表明无论男女，皮肤癌的发病风险均随年龄增长和年份推移而增加，且较晚出生的队列的发病风险均低于之前出生的队列。结论 1990―2019年中国皮肤癌的发病率呈上升趋势，年龄越大、出生越早且生活在当代的人其发病风险更高。应重视皮肤癌的防治工作。
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| 关 键 词： | 皮肤癌 发病率 Joinpoint回归分析 年龄-时期-队列模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-01-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-04-25 |
Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model |
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| CHEN Dong-yu, YANG Xiao-yu, WANG Hong-xin, FAN Wen-long, HE Yu-qing. Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(7): 756-765. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Dong-yu YANG Xiao-yu WANG Hong-xin FAN Wen-long HE Yu-qing |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China;;2. Dermatological Department, Liaobu Hospital, Dongguan 523400, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To analyze the incidence trends of skin cancer in China and to estimate age, period, and cohort effects. Methods We assessed incidence trends of skin cancer in China based on the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of skin cancer. Results Age-standardized incidence rate of skin cancer among males and females increased significantly in China from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression indicated that AAPC of malignant skin melanoma in males was 2.8% (95% CI: 2.6-3.0) and in females was 3.0% (95% CI: 2.8-3.2); AAPC of basal cell carcinoma in males was 4.2% (95% CI: 3.9-4.4) and in females was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.7-4.3); AAPC of squamous cell carcinoma in males was 3.7% (95% CI: 3.5-3.9) and in females was 2.9% (95% CI: 2.7-3.0). For both males and females, the relative risk of skin cancer incidence increased with advancing age and time period, but decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. Conclusions The incidence of skin cancer shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. People who born earlier, being older, and living in modern times have a higher risk of skin cancer incidence. Control and treatment of skin cancer should be paid attention to. |
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| Keywords: | Skin cancer Incidence Joinpoint regression analysis Age-period-cohort model |
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