Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum,South India |
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| Authors: | Aleyamma Mathew1Aleyamma Mathew2Preethi George2Asha Arjunan3Paul Augustine4MC Kalavathy2G Padmakumari2Beela Mathew3 |
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| Affiliation: | 1Divisions of Cancer Epidemiology and Bio-statistics, Trivandrum, Kerala, India2Divisions of Cancer Epidemiology & Bio-statistics, Trivandrum, Kerala, India.3Radiation Oncology, Regional Cancer Centre, Trivandrum, Kerala, India.4Surgical Oncology, Regional Cancer Centre, Trivandrum, Kerala, India. |
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| Abstract: | Background: Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum.Materials and Methods: BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates.Results: BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20.Conclusions: BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied. |
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| Keywords: | breast cancer Incidence rate average annual percent change bayesian model Projection |
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