| 湖南省2010-2015年丙型肝炎发病流行病学特征与短期发病趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘源,刘富强,陈立章,史文佩. 湖南省2010-2015年丙型肝炎发病流行病学特征与短期发病趋势预测[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2017, 21(2): 146-150. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.02.010 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘源 刘富强 陈立章 史文佩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 湖南 长沙 410078; |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省科技厅科技计划重点项目（2014SK2013） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 对湖南省丙型病毒性肝炎（丙肝）发病的流行病学特征进行分析并进行短期发病趋势预测。方法 根据传染病报告信息管理系统中报告的2010-2015年湖南省丙肝疫情数据,运用描述性流行病学方法分析其流行病学分布特征,并使用指数平滑法预测2016-2017年湖南省丙肝发病趋势。结果 2010-2015年,湖南省累计报告丙肝病例60 328例,其中男性32 597例,女性27 731例,男女比例为1.18:1。年平均发病率为18.337/10万,发病率呈逐年递增趋势,发病数、发病率的平均增长速度分别为22.39%和20.86%。发病有较明显季节性,表现为春夏季高发,3月为发病高峰。高发地区为怀化市（10 138例,占16.8%）,邵阳（7 335例,占12.16%）,衡阳（7 016例,11.63%）以及长沙（6 530例,占10.82%）。丙肝发病具有年龄单峰分布特征,从20岁开始发病急剧增高,40~50岁达到顶峰。在不同的职业构成中,农民构成比最高,为50.00%。使用Winters可加性模型预测2016-2017年月平均发病率分别为14.769/10万、13.687/10万,2016-2017年湖南省丙肝发病率较2015年水平将呈现出下降趋势。结论 2010-2015年湖南省丙肝发病呈上升趋势,Winters可加性模型能较好的预测短期湖南省丙肝发病趋势,应结合预测情况与其实际流行病学特征制定防控丙肝策略,合理规划、分配卫生资源。
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| 关 键 词： | 肝炎 丙型 流行病学方法 传染病 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-08-07 |
A study on epidemiological features of hepatitis C in Hunan Province,and short-term forecast on its incidence tendency, 2010-2015 |
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| LIU Yuan,LIU Fu-qiang,CHEN Li-zhang,SHI Wen-pei. A study on epidemiological features of hepatitis C in Hunan Province,and short-term forecast on its incidence tendency, 2010-2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention, 2017, 21(2): 146-150. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.02.010 |
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| Authors: | LIU Yuan LIU Fu-qiang CHEN Li-zhang SHI Wen-pei |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China;2. Public Health Emergency Response Office, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To study the epidemiological features of hepatitis C in Hunan and the short-term forecast of its incidence tendency. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were adopted to analyze data from report information management system of communicable diseases of China from 2010 to 2015 for hepatitis C infection status in Hunan province. Exponential smoothing method was adopted to create model to forecast the short-term incidence tendency of hepatitis C in Hunan from 2016 to 2017. Results From 2010 to 2015, 60 328 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Hunan Province, including 32 597 males cases and 27 731 female cases, and the gender ratio was 1.18:1. The annual average incidence rate was 18.337/100 000 with an annually-ascending tendency. The average growth rates of newly-emerging cases and incidence rates were 22.39% and 20.86% respectively. There was an obvious seasonality characterized in peaking in spring and summer with a peak in March. The most four densely-distributed regions were Huaihua (10 138, 16.8%), Shaogyang(7 335, 12.16%), Hengyang (7 016, 11.63%) and Changsha (6 530, 10.82%).The case numbers started to rise sharply from those aged 20 and above and reached a peak among people aged 40-50, presenting a conspicuous age specific feature. Among populations with different occupations, peasants occupied the largest percentage (50.00%). The incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan from 2016 to 2017 would decrease compared with that in 2015, and the average monthly incidence rates of 2016 and 2017 was predicted to be 14.769/100 000, 13.687/100 000 respectively. Conclusions There has been an ascending tendency of hepatitis C in Hunan between 2010 and 2015; Winters Additive Method is suitable for the short-term forecast of hepatitis C in Hunan. Reality situation and accurate forecast of incidence should be well-combined for the promotion of the preventive works of hepatitis C in Hunan. |
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| Keywords: | Hepatitis C Epidemiologic methods Communicable diseases |
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