| 上海市浦东新区幼托机构缺课缺勤症状监测系统预警效果评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 王静,王远萍,叶楚楚,郑晓,谢彦昕,王艺,朱渭萍. 上海市浦东新区幼托机构缺课缺勤症状监测系统预警效果评价[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(12): 966-969. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.12.017 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王静 王远萍 叶楚楚 郑晓 谢彦昕 王艺 朱渭萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.传染病监测预警中国疾病预防控制中心重点实验室研究基地 上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心, 上海 200136 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心科技项目（No.PDCDC-2015-16） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 评价上海市浦东新区幼托机构缺课缺勤症状监测系统对目标人群传染病发生流行的预警效果。方法 分析上海市浦东新区幼托机构缺课缺勤症状监测系统2013年9月1日至2014年6月30日和2014年9月1日至2015年6月30日两个学年的监测数据，并将其与同期浦东新区幼托儿童法定报告传染病数据比较，采用错位相关分析对两时间序列数据的相关性进行研究，探索利用幼托机构缺课缺勤数据及时预警幼托机构法定报告传染病的可行性及其效果。结果 幼托机构缺课缺勤系统中报告的发热症状、皮疹类症状与该人群发热、皮疹类相关法定报告传染病疫情具有显著相关性，其中发热症状、皮疹类症状均可提前1~3周发现相关目标疾病的波动。结论 发热症状和皮疹类症状在一定程度上可提示相关法定报告传染病的疫情波动，利用该监测数据的分析可起到传染病的预警及流行趋势预测作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 幼托机构 症状监测 预警 评价 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-08-10 |
Application of syndromic surveillance system based on kindergarten absenteeism records in Pudong new district,Shanghai |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Research Base of State Key Laboratory for Communicable Disease Surveillance and Early Warning of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai Pudong New District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200136, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To evaluate warning effects and feasibility of syndromic surveillance system based on kindergarten absenteeism records on predication of communicable disease epidemic in targeted population in Pudong new district of Shanghai. Methods The surveillance data from September 1,2013 to June 30,2014 and from September 1,2014 to June 30,2015 were analyzed. The results were compared with the incidence data of notifiable communicable diseases in local child care settings during the same period. Time mismatch Pearson correlation analysis was conducted on the correlation between 2 sets of data.Results There were significant correlation between the data of fever and rash in child care settings reported by syndromic surveillance system based on kindergarten absenteeism records and by notifiable communicable disease surveillance, but fever and rash reported by syndromic surveillance system could predict fluctuations of related disease epidemic 1-3 weeks in advance.Conclusion Symptoms of fever and rash can predict the fluctuations of related communicable disease epidemic at some extent, which would facilitate the early warning and trend prediction of communicable diseases. |
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