| 2013―2019年南京市大气PM2.5短期暴露对人群超额死亡风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙凤霞, 熊丽林, 杨华凤, 贾云飞, 陈春静, 唐彦钊, 郑雨虹, 韦丽. 2013―2019年南京市大气PM2.5短期暴露对人群超额死亡风险评估[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2021, 25(11): 1257-1263. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.004 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙凤霞 熊丽林 杨华凤 贾云飞 陈春静 唐彦钊 郑雨虹 韦丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.210003 南京，南京市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科;;2.210003 南京，南京市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染病防制科 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金21876026江苏省预防医学课题Y2018005南京市卫生科技发展项目ZKX20046 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 评估2013―2019年南京市大气细颗粒物(fine particulate matter, PM2.5)短期暴露对人群死亡的影响及其所致超额死亡人数。方法 收集环保、气象、户籍人口和死因监测数据，采用广义相加模型分析PM2.5对人群死亡的影响，得到暴露-反应关系系数，估算因PM2.5短期暴露导致人群超额死亡人数。结果 在2013―2019年，南京市大气PM2.5质量浓度增加，居民各系统疾病死亡风险随着升高(均有P < 0.05)。PM2.5短期暴露引发的人群非意外总死亡中超额死亡人数为8 479人，占人群非意外总死亡的3.21%；呼吸系统疾病、恶性肿瘤疾病、循环系统疾病、脑血管疾病和心血管疾病的超额死亡人数及其占所属疾病类型总死亡人数的比例分别为1 202人(4.32%)、1 424人(1.60%)、4 505人(3.94%)、2 613人(3.79%)和1 856人(4.14%)。结论 2013―2019年南京市PM2.5质量浓度和其造成的居民超额死亡人数呈降低趋势，南京市大气污染防治健康收益良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 大气细颗粒物 超额死亡 健康风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-03-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-05-04 |
Assessing the excess mortality related to short-term exposure to PM2.5 in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019 |
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| SUN Feng-xia, XIONG Li-lin, YANG Hua-feng, JIA Yun-fei, CHEN Chun-jing, TANG Yan-zhao, ZHENG Yu-hong, WEI Li. Assessing the excess mortality related to short-term exposure to PM2.5 in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(11): 1257-1263. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.004 |
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| Authors: | SUN Feng-xia XIONG Li-lin YANG Hua-feng JIA Yun-fei CHEN Chun-jing TANG Yan-zhao ZHENG Yu-hong WEI Li |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Environmental Health, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China;;2. Department of Non-communicable Disease Prevention, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To estimate impact of residents death and excess mortality induced by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) short-term exposure in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019. Methods Environmental data, meteorological data, population of community residents and death surveillance data in Nanjing was collected. Generalized additive model of time series analysis was used to analyze the effects of PM2.5 on risk of death, and estimated excess mortality related to PM2.5. Results The risk of residents death increased while the concentration of PM2.5 increased in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019. The number of excess mortality due to PM2.5, including non-accidental causes, respiratory diseases, cancer, circulatory diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, cardiovascular diseases was 8 479(3.21%), 1 202(4.32%), 1 424(1.60%), 4 505(3.94%), 2 613(3.79%) and 1 856(4.14%). Conclusion The excess mortality caused by PM2.5 was decreasing while the concentration of PM2.5 decreased in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019. The health benefits of air pollution prevention and control in Nanjing are good. |
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| Keywords: | Ambient fine particulate matter Excess death Health risk assessment |
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