| 大气颗粒物（PM2.5和PM10）污染与泰州市居民死亡的关系分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 田元睿1,俞浩2,赵小兰1,张德坤1,张艳秋1,黄鑫1,周永1. 大气颗粒物（PM2.5和PM10）污染与泰州市居民死亡的关系分析[J]. 现代预防医学, 2023, 0(2): 245-249. DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202204127 |
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| 作者姓名： | 田元睿1 俞浩2 赵小兰1 张德坤1 张艳秋1 黄鑫1 周永1 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 泰州市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制科，江苏 泰州 225300；2. 江苏省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所，江苏 南京 210009 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨大气颗粒物与泰州市居民非意外、呼吸系统疾病以及循环系统疾病死亡人数之间的关系。方法 收集泰州市2016年1月1日—2020年12月31日的大气颗粒物化验结果及居民死亡数据，采用时间序列的广义相加模型，分别拟合单污染物模型和双污染物模型来分析泰州市大气颗粒物浓度与每日非意外、呼吸系统、循环系统疾病死亡人数的关系。结果 2016—2020年期间，PM2.5、PM10的平均质量浓度分别为43.60μg/m3和71.58μg/m3。单污染物模型研究表明四日移动平均滞后的PM2.5(lag03)和PM10(lag03)对非意外、循环系统疾病死亡影响最大，大气颗粒物PM2.5和PM10的浓度每升高10μg/m3，非意外死亡人数分别增加0.82%和0.54%，循环系统疾病死亡人数分别增加1.40%和0.88%。PM2.5当日浓度PM2.5(lag0)和PM10两日移动平均滞后的PM10(lag01)对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响最大，PM2.5、PM10浓度每升高10μg/m3，呼吸系统疾病死亡人数分别上升0....
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| 关 键 词： | 大气颗粒物 每日死亡人数 时间序列 |
Analysis of the relationship between atmospheric particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) pollution and death of residents in Taizhou city |
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| TIAN Yuan-rui,YU Hao,ZHAO Xiao-lan,ZHANG De-kun,ZHANG Yan-qiu,HUANG Xin,ZHOU Yong. Analysis of the relationship between atmospheric particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) pollution and death of residents in Taizhou city[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2023, 0(2): 245-249. DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202204127 |
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| Authors: | TIAN Yuan-rui YU Hao ZHAO Xiao-lan ZHANG De-kun ZHANG Yan-qiu HUANG Xin ZHOU Yong |
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| Affiliation: | *Taizhou Center of Disease Control and Prevention, Taizhou, Jiangsu 225300, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To investigate the relationship between atmospheric particulate matter and daily non-accidental death, respiratory disease death, and circulatory disease death of residents in Taizhou city. Methods Test results of atmospheric particulate matter, and death of residents in Taizhou from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020 were collected. The generalized additive model of time series was used to fit the single pollutant model and double pollutant model respectively to analyze the impact of atmospheric particles on daily non-accidental death and death caused by circulatory and respiratory diseases in Taizhou city. Results From 2016 to 2020, the daily average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were 43.6μg/m3 and 71.58μg/m3, respectively. Single-pollutant model suggested 3-day averaged PM2.5(lag03) and PM10(lag03) had the greatest impact on non-accidental death, circulatory disease death, and respiratory disease death. When the concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 increased by 10μg/m3, the mortalities of non-accidental death increased by 0.82% and 0.54%, respectively. When the concentration of PM10 and PM2.5 increased by 10μg/m3, the mortalities of circulatory disease increased by 1.40% and 0.88%, respectively. 0-lag PM2.5 and 2-day averaged PM10 had the greatest impact on respiratory disease death. For every 10μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and PM10 concentration, the number of deaths from respiratory diseases increased by 0.83% and 0.68%, respectively. Conclusion An increase of air particulate matter concentration may lead to an increase of the daily non-accidental death, circulatory disease death, and respiratory disease death of residents in Taizhou city. There is a lag effect on the impact of atmospheric particulate matter on the death of non-accidental death and circulatory disease. |
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| Keywords: | Particulate matter Daily deaths Time series |
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