| 疟疾风险可能性加权综合指数法评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 邵飘飘, 邵天, 唐尚锋, 王若溪, 王曼丽, 刘春燕, 付航, 冯占春. 疟疾风险可能性加权综合指数法评估[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(4): 520-524. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-02 |
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| 作者姓名： | 邵飘飘 邵天 唐尚锋 王若溪 王曼丽 刘春燕 付航 冯占春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华中科技大学医药卫生管理学院, 湖北 武汉 430030;2.湖北省人文社科重点研究基地-农村健康服务研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（71473097） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 评估中国湖北、安徽和广西8个县（区）的疟疾风险可能性，为疟疾风险管理提供策略建议。方法 于2015年7月-2016年2月，采用分层随机抽样和典型抽样相结合的方法在湖北、安徽和广西个地区抽取8个样本县（区）进行调查，通过文献研究、头脑风暴和专家咨询等方法编制调查资料，选取出7个代表性指标，运用加权综合指数法对样本地区的疟疾风险可能性进行评估。结果 样本地区疟疾风险可能性分别为A地0.001 30、B地0.000 72、C地0.000 39、D地0.000 36、E地0.001 78、F地0.001 04、G地0.000 40、H地0.001 85；虽然总体上疟疾风险可能性不大，但仍存在一定程度的传染源风险、传播媒介风险和人群暴露风险；8个样本地区疟疾风险可能性排序为H>E>A>F>B>G>C>D，疟疾风险可能性最高的为H地，最低的为D地，两者差距较大。结论 中国 疟疾风险可能性的降低需要各地区疾病预防控制机构从控制传染源、切断传播途径和保护风险人群3个方面予以解决；坚持政府主导，通过监测、培训、宣教和沟通协作等进行风险防范，逐步完善疟疾风险管理体系。
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| 关 键 词： | 疟疾风险 可能性 评估 加权综合指数法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-09-07 |
Assessment on potential of malaria epidemic based on weighted composite index method |
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| SHAO Piao-piao, SHAO Tian, TANG Shang-feng.et al, . Assessment on potential of malaria epidemic based on weighted composite index method[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(4): 520-524. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-04-02 |
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| Authors: | SHAO Piao-piao SHAO Tian TANG Shang-feng.et al |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Medicine and Health Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430030, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To assess the potential of malaria epidemic in 8 counties or districts in Hubei and Anhui province and in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China and provide strategies and suggestions for malaria risk management.Methods The 8 counties were selected with stratified random sampling and typical sampling for a survey conducted between July 2015 and February 2016.Literature research,brain-storming,and expert consultation were adopted and 7 representative indicators associated with malaria epidemic were selected in the study.The potential of malaria epidemic in the 8 regions was evaluated using weighted composite index method.Results The composite indexes for malaria epidemic in the 8 regions were 0.00130,0.00072,0.00039,0.00036,0.00178,0.00104,0.00040,and 0.00185,with the highest value of 0.00185 for a high risk region and the lowest of 0.00036 for a low risk region,respectively.Although the indexes suggested a low overall risk of malaria epidemic,but there were infection source,vector transmission,and population exposure related malaria epidemic risks in the 8 regions.Conclusion The study results suggest that to reduce the risk of malaria epidemic in China,disease prevention and control institutions of various administrative regions should make efforts in controling infectious source,interrupting the pathway of transmission,and preventing people from exposure. |
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| Keywords: | malaria risk potential assessment weighted composite index method |
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