基于德尔菲法对人感染H7N9禽流感监测预警指标体系的研究

目的采用德尔菲专家咨询法,确立人感染H7N9禽流感监测预警指标体系,为下一步防控工作提供参考依据。方法通过Delphi专家访谈法、小组讨论等方法对人感染H7N9禽流感监测预警指标体系进行筛选,最终确立人感染H7N9禽流感监测预警指标体系。结果本研究共进行两轮德尔菲问卷调查,第1轮专家咨询共发放问卷36份,有效回收33份,专家积极性系数为91.67%。第2轮共发放问卷33份,专家积极性系数为87.88%。专家对一级指标的判断依据基本在0.7以上,熟悉程度全部在0.7以上,权威程度较高。经过两轮咨询,肯德尔和谐系数的显著水平均小于0.05,提示专家对指标意见协调程度尚可。最终建立39个三级指标的人感染H7N9禽流感监测预警指标体系。结论人感染H7N9禽流感监测预警指标体系,可以作为人感染H7N9禽流感监测预警的基本指标,评分靠前的指标需要在今后的防控工作中进一步强化和调整。

The study on monitoring and early-warning index system for humaninfected H7N9 avian influenza based on delphi expert consultation method

Objective To adopt the Delphi expert consultation method for establishment of a monitoring and early-warning index system for human-infected H7N9 avian influenza. Methods We carried out the screening on such system through Delphi expert interview and group discussion, including a further improvement of such established system. Eventually, the monitoring and early-warning index system for human-infected H7N9 avian influenza was established. Results This research included two rounds of Delphi questionnaire survey. Totally 36 copies of questionnaires were handed out in the first round of expert consultation, of which, 33 copies were effectively collected, showing an expert enthusiasm coefficient of 91.67%. While in the second round, there were 33 copies of questionnaires handed out, with 29 copies effectively collected, showing an expert enthusiasm coefficient of 87.88%. The judgment criteria held by the experts for first level indexes was generally above0.7, and for degree of familiarity were all above 0.7, which indicated that the experts were relatively familiar with the monitoring and early-warning system for human-infected avian influenza, and to which they have higher authorities. After two rounds of consultation it was found that the significant level of Kendall coefficient of concordances were all less than 0.05,thereby it was believed that the experts were having generally acceptable coordination of their opinions on above mentioned indexes. Finally, we established the monitoring and early-warning index system for human-infected H7N9 avian influenza, for which it covered 39 third level indexes. Conclusion Indexes found herein can be regarded as the basic indexes for monitoring and early-warning system for human-infected H7N9 avian influenza. The front indexes should be further strengthened during the prevention and control measures taken in the future.