| 香港地区流行性腮腺炎月发病例数SARIMA模型预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐燕,阎玉霞,韩剑锋,陈平雁.香港地区流行性腮腺炎月发病例数SARIMA模型预测分析[J].热带医学杂志,2013,13(1):88-90,106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐燕 阎玉霞 韩剑锋 陈平雁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南方医科大学公共卫生与热带医学学院生物统计学系,广东广州,510515
2. 香港大学医学院,中国香港 |
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| 基金项目： | 南方医科大学公共卫生与热带医学学院院长基金(GW200821) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的研究季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型（SARIMA）拟合季节时间序列的方法，并将其应用于预测香港流行性腮腺炎疫情趋势。方法利用R软件对2000年1月至2012年8月香港流行性腮腺炎月发病例数资料进行建模，用所构建模型进行预测分析。结果流行性腮腺炎发病呈上升趋势，SARIMA（2，1，1）×（1，1，1）。：模型较好地拟合了香港流行性腮腺炎的月发病例数，模型残差为白噪声序列，回代考核平均相对误差为17．5％；后8个月的数据作为前瞻性预测考核，平均相对误差为16．4％。结论SARIMA模型较好地模拟腮腺炎的流行特征，并进行中、短期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | SARIMA模型 流行性腮腺炎 预测 |
Analysis of epidemic mumps in Hong Kong using the SARIMA model |
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| XU Yan,YAN Yu-xia,HAN Jian-feng,CHEN Ping-yan.Analysis of epidemic mumps in Hong Kong using the SARIMA model[J].Journal Of Tropical Medicine,2013,13(1):88-90,106. |
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| Authors: | XU Yan YAN Yu-xia HAN Jian-feng CHEN Ping-yan |
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| Institution: | 1 (1.Department of Biostatistics of School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine,Southern Medical University,Guangdong,Guangzhou 510515;2.Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine,the University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To study the application of SARIMA model in the analysis of mumps epidemic trends in Hong Kong. Method R software was used in the construction of SARIMA model, and the model was then used in the analyzis of the mumps epidemic data obtained from Hong Kong. Results The SARIMA （2, 1,1 ） ×（ 1, 1, 1 ） 12 model was found to be suitable in the simulation of mumps epidemic in Hong Kong. The residual was white noise sequence. The average relative error was 17.5% of back substitution assessment, and 16.4% of the forward-looking forecast assessment using the after eight-month data. It showed a rising trend in the number of incidence of mumps throughout the year in 2012 in Hong Kong. Conclusions SARIMA fitted well with the trends of mumps. The authors explored methodology issues on the prediction of mumps. |
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| Keywords: | SARIMA model mumps forecast |
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