精神分裂症复发率的纵向变化规律

目的：研究精神分裂症复发率的纵向变化规律。方法：间接材料是根据高春霓等（1999）已发表的精神分裂症未复发率数据；直接材料是统计了本院自1990到1991年的精神分裂症病人出院时疗效。结果：间接材料显示，精神分裂症出院时痊愈者在随访6年期间，其未复发率呈指数下降In(108-y)=1.956 0.4316x]，而复发率则呈指数上升In(8 y)=1.956 0.4316x]，其R^2均为0．9959。直接材料显示，出院时痊愈率为19．41％。结论：（1）对精神分裂症总体来说，能达到出院时痊愈且终生不复发的概率还不到2．48％；（2）出院痊愈后6年内任何一个时点的复发概率可被精神地计算出来。

A rule of recurrence rate longitudinal change in schizophrenics

Objective To explore a rule of recurrence rate longitudinal change in schizophrenics.Methods Indirect data have been performed a curve regression analysis according to schizophrenic non-recurrence rate data published by Gao Chunni et al (1999).Direct data have been analyzed clinical response when schizophrenics discharged from hospital from 1990 to 1991.Results Indirect data indicated that non-recurrence rate was decreased In(108-y)=1.956+0.4316x] and recurrence rate was increased In(8+y)=1.956+0.4316x] according to exponential curve(R 2=0.9959) during follow up 6 years period in recovery schizophrenics discharged from hospital. Direct data showed that it was 19.41% for recovery rate discharged from hospital in schizophrenics.Conclusion (1) It was less than 2.48% for both recovery discharged from hospital and life non-recurrence possibility in schizophrenic total.(2)Recurrence possibility may be counted at any time point within 6 years after recovery discharged from hospital.