| 基于GM（1,1）模型的住院人次预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨婷,王玉贵,邓琼,杨丹.基于GM（1,1）模型的住院人次预测[J].中国病案,2010,11(11):33-34. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨婷 王玉贵 邓琼 杨丹 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 湖北医药学院附属十堰市太和医院,十堰市,442000
2. 湖北医药学院附属十堰市人民医院,十堰市,442000 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 目的应用GM（1,1）模型预测住院人次。方法建立GM（1,1）模型对某三级医院2010年住院人次进行定量预测。结果 GM（1,1）模型预测住院人数效果非常理想,残差ε-=3.4548%、后验差比c=0.1130、P=1、r=0.9785,模型测定为Ⅰ级,外推可信。预测医院2010年住院人次为6.7342万人次。结论运用GM（1,1）模型可为医院合理配置医疗资源提供科学依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | GM（1 1）模型 预测精度 预测误差 住院人次 |
Prediction of Number of Hospitalization Based on GM (1,1) Model |
| |
| Yang Ting,Wang Yugui,Deng Qiong,Yang Dan.Prediction of Number of Hospitalization Based on GM (1,1) Model[J].Chinese Medical Record,2010,11(11):33-34. |
| |
| Authors: | Yang Ting Wang Yugui Deng Qiong Yang Dan |
| |
| Institution: | ( Taihe Hospital Affiliated to Hubei Medical University; People＇s Hospital Affiliated to Hubei Medical University, 442000 ) |
| |
| Abstract: | Objective to predict number of hospitalization by using GM（1,1） model. Method had a quantitative prediction on number of hospitalization of a third-level hospital by setting up GM（1,1） model in 2001. Results the prediction of hospitalization number by using GM（1,1） model was very satisfactory. Residual error =3.4548%; Posterior difference-ratio c=0.1130; Small error probability P=1; an absolute correlation coefficient r=0.9785. The model determination is level I. The extrapolation is practicable. The prediction of hospitalization number is 67,342 during 2010. Conclusion using GM （1,1） model not only can dispose medical resource reasonably, but also can provide scientific foundation. |
| |
| Keywords: | GM （1 1） model prediction precision prediction error patient discharge |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
